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Tolmin vs Bistrica Result & Analysis

Date: 05/05/2024
Time: 15:00
Final 4-1
Tolmin
Tolmin
Vs
39%
28%
34%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Bistrica
Bistrica
Slovenia: 2. SNL
Referee: -

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Tolmin win✓ Hit
38.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
27.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Bistrica win✗ Miss
33.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

TolminTolmin

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-322D12L02L01L02L13L21W00D11D22DA·TAB18/11H·BEL03/03A·TRI09/03A·BRI17/03H·BIL23/03A·RUD29/03H·NAF06/04A·DEK14/04H·DRA19/04A·KRK27/04
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.071.591.311.620.861.57
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (27)1.071.591.311.620.861.57
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %22% (-6pp vs league)
This opponent (Bistrica) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

BistricaBistrica

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-510W13L30W13L20W15L11D11D02L10WH·DEK19/11A·DRA03/03H·KRK09/03H·TRI17/03A·ILI23/03H·GOR30/03A·FUŽ06/04H·PRI13/04A·TAB21/04H·BEL28/04
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.631.431.941.251.291.64
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (30)1.631.431.941.251.291.64
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %33% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (Tolmin) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%13%19%25%7%015%125%222%316%49%56%6+
The model estimates around 2.8 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
78.1%
Under 1.5
21.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
53.0%
Under 2.5
47.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
30.8%
Under 3.5
69.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
57.8%
No
42.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.1%
2-1
8.7%
1-2
8.0%
1-0
7.7%
0-0
7.3%
0-1
7.0%
2-0
6.5%
2-2
5.8%
Tolmin goals ↓
Bistrica goals →
01234
07.3%7.0%5.5%2.5%0.8%
17.7%13%8.0%3.6%1.2%
26.5%8.7%5.8%2.6%0.9%
33.1%4.2%2.8%1.3%0.4%
41.1%1.5%1.0%0.5%0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Tolmin goals (down), columns = Bistrica goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Primorje
2.00
Nafta
1.93
Beltinci
1.87
Gorica
1.77
Brinje-Grosuplje
1.73
Triglav
1.60
Bistrica
1.47
Rudar
1.23
Dekani
1.20
Bilje
1.13
Tolmin
1.13
Dravinja
1.13
Krka
1.10
Tabor Sežana
1.00
Ilirija
1.00
Fužinar
0.80
Tolmin is 0.33 points worse than Bistrica in terms of average points per game (1.13 vs 1.47).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Nafta
1.83
Brinje-Grosuplje
1.73
Gorica
1.70
Beltinci
1.63
Primorje
1.63
Bistrica
1.50
Bilje
1.47
Triglav
1.47
Krka
1.33
Tabor Sežana
1.27
Dekani
1.13
Tolmin
1.13
Fužinar
1.10
Rudar
1.10
Ilirija
1.03
Dravinja
0.97
Tolmin is 0.37 goals worse than Bistrica in terms of goals scored per game (1.13 vs 1.50).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Beltinci
0.80
Primorje
0.83
Gorica
0.93
Nafta
1.03
Brinje-Grosuplje
1.17
Triglav
1.17
Dekani
1.23
Dravinja
1.40
Ilirija
1.47
Tolmin
1.50
Bistrica
1.53
Krka
1.63
Rudar
1.63
Bilje
1.70
Tabor Sežana
1.97
Fužinar
2.03
Tolmin is 0.03 goals better than Bistrica in terms of goals conceded per game (1.50 vs 1.53).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

TolminTolmin

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-210W10W02L01L01L00D11D00D10W12LA·TAB18/11H·BEL03/03A·TRI09/03A·BRI17/03H·BIL23/03A·RUD29/03H·NAF06/04A·DEK14/04H·DRA19/04A·KRK27/04
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.590.890.920.850.290.93
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (27)0.590.890.920.850.290.93
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %41% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (Bistrica) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

BistricaBistrica

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-210W01L10W01L10W12L01L10W02L00DH·DEK19/11A·DRA03/03H·KRK09/03H·TRI17/03A·ILI23/03H·GOR30/03A·FUŽ06/04H·PRI13/04A·TAB21/04H·BEL28/04
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.870.571.000.440.710.71
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (30)0.870.571.000.440.710.71
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %60% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Tolmin) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Tolmin over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tolmin over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tolmin over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bistrica over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bistrica over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bistrica over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

TolminTolmin

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-312L02L00D00D01L13L10W00D01L10WA·TAB18/11H·BEL03/03A·TRI09/03A·BRI17/03H·BIL23/03A·RUD29/03H·NAF06/04A·DEK14/04H·DRA19/04A·KRK27/04
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.480.700.380.770.570.64
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (27)0.480.700.380.770.570.64
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %52% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (Bistrica) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

BistricaBistrica

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-300D12L20W12L10W03L10W01L00D10WH·DEK19/11A·DRA03/03H·KRK09/03H·TRI17/03A·ILI23/03H·GOR30/03A·FUŽ06/04H·PRI13/04A·TAB21/04H·BEL28/04
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.770.870.940.810.570.93
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (30)0.770.870.940.810.570.93
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %47% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Tolmin) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Tolmin over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tolmin over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tolmin over/under 2.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bistrica over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bistrica over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bistrica over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.578.1%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BRI (24)
€3m
NAF (18)
€2m
TRI (19)
€2m
TS (17)
€2m
BEL (17)
€2m
ILI (15)
€1m
DRA (16)
€1m
DEK (18)
€1m
BIL (17)
€1m
RUD (17)
€1m
KRK (12)
€1m
BIS (14)
€1m
PRI (10)
€1m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
NAF (8)
€1m
BRI (7)
€1m
BEL (8)
€1m
TRI (7)
€1m
ILI (7)
€1m
TS (4)
€1m
BIL (5)
€1m
KRK (5)
€0m
BIS (6)
€0m
DRA (4)
€0m
DEK (3)
€0m
RUD (3)
€0m
PRI (3)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BRI (7)
€1m
TS (5)
€1m
RUD (8)
€1m
TRI (5)
€0m
DEK (6)
€0m
BEL (3)
€0m
PRI (2)
€0m
BIS (4)
€0m
NAF (2)
€0m
ILI (2)
€0m
DRA (2)
€0m
BIL (4)
€0m
KRK (1)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BRI (10)
€1m
NAF (8)
€1m
TRI (7)
€1m
DRA (10)
€1m
TS (8)
€1m
KRK (6)
€1m
BEL (6)
€1m
BIL (8)
€1m
DEK (9)
€1m
RUD (6)
€0m
ILI (6)
€0m
PRI (5)
€0m
BIS (4)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

1 previous meeting
1
TOL wins
0
Draws
0
BIS wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Tolmin vs Bistrica · H/A from TOL
DateH/AGameScore
14/10/23ABistrica Vs TOL0-1

TolminTolmin

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
27/04/24AKrka Vs TOL2-2
19/04/24HTOL Vs Dravinja1-1
14/04/24ADekani Vs TOL0-0
06/04/24HTOL Vs Nafta2-1
29/03/24ARudar Vs TOL3-1
23/03/24HTOL Vs Bilje0-2
17/03/24ABrinje-Grosuplje Vs TOL1-0
09/03/24ATriglav Vs TOL2-0
03/03/24HTOL Vs Beltinci1-2
18/11/23ATabor Sežana Vs TOL2-2

BistricaBistrica

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
28/04/24HBIS Vs Beltinci1-0
21/04/24ATabor Sežana Vs BIS2-0
13/04/24HBIS Vs Primorje1-1
06/04/24AFužinar Vs BIS1-1
30/03/24HBIS Vs Gorica1-5
23/03/24AIlirija Vs BIS0-2
17/03/24HBIS Vs Triglav1-3
09/03/24HBIS Vs Krka3-0
03/03/24ADravinja Vs BIS3-1
19/11/23HBIS Vs Dekani1-0

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Tolmin
Tolmin
Slovenia: 2. SNL
Recent: 1 Wins / 4 Draws / 5 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLWDDD1.07
HomeDLLWD1.38
AwayLLLDD0.79
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %26%38%14%
AVG goals2.672.922.43
Over 1.5 %74%85%64%
Over 2.5 %59%69%50%
Over 3.5 %37%38%36%
Scored1.071.310.86
Conceded1.591.621.57
BTTS52%54%50%
Clean Sheet22%23%21%
Corners---
Cards---
Bistrica
Bistrica
Slovenia: 2. SNL
Recent: 4 Wins / 2 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLDDLW1.34
HomeWLLDW1.69
AwayLLWDL0.96
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %36%50%21%
AVG goals2.882.852.92
Over 1.5 %78%69%88%
Over 2.5 %52%50%54%
Over 3.5 %34%31%38%
Scored1.441.651.21
Conceded1.441.191.71
BTTS56%50%62%
Clean Sheet26%38%12%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1PrimorjePrimorje3060
57%
2.0
4925+24
2.5
70%
50%
30%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.60.8
-
2NaftaNafta3058
60%
1.9
5531+24
2.9
77%
53%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.81.0
-
3BeltinciBeltinci3056
57%
1.9
4924+25
2.4
67%
47%
17%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.60.8
-
4GoricaGorica3053
50%
1.8
5128+23
2.6
67%
47%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.70.9
-
5Brinje-GrosupljeBrinje-Grosuplje3052
50%
1.7
5235+17
2.9
80%
50%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1111.71.2
-
6TriglavTriglav3048
47%
1.6
4435+9
2.6
80%
60%
23%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.51.2
-
7BistricaBistrica3044
43%
1.5
4546-1
3.0
73%
57%
37%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.51.5
-
8RudarRudar3037
33%
1.2
3349-16
2.7
67%
43%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0101.11.6
-
9DekaniDekani3036
30%
1.2
3437-3
2.4
60%
47%
27%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0011.11.2
-
10BiljeBilje3034
30%
1.1
4451-7
3.2
83%
63%
47%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
1011.51.7
-
11TolminTolmin3034
27%
1.1
3445-11
2.6
73%
57%
37%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.11.5
-
12DravinjaDravinja3034
30%
1.1
2942-13
2.4
63%
50%
20%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0011.01.4
-
13KrkaKrka3033
30%
1.1
4049-9
3.0
80%
57%
30%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0011.31.6
-
14IlirijaIlirija3030
23%
1.0
3144-13
2.5
77%
50%
27%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
1001.01.5
-
15Tabor SežanaTabor Sežana3030
23%
1.0
3859-21
3.2
83%
60%
43%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1111.32.0
-
16FužinarFužinar3024
20%
0.8
3361-28
3.1
80%
57%
37%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.12.0
-
Slovenia: 2. SNL 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Slovenia: 2. SNL stats & trends →

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