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Tolmin vs Ilirija Result & Analysis

Date: 21/10/2023
Time: 13:00
Final 3-2
Tolmin
Tolmin
Vs
24%
26%
50%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Ilirija
Ilirija
Slovenia: 2. SNL
Referee: -

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Tolmin win✓ Hit
24.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
26.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Ilirija win✗ Miss
49.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

TolminTolmin

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-404L01L03L12L30W03L22D11D13L10WH·TRI19/08A·PRI29/08H·BRI04/09A·BIL09/09H·RUD16/09A·NAF21/09H·DEK24/09A·DRA01/10H·KRK08/10A·BIS14/10
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.9
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.921.831.172.000.671.67
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (12)0.921.831.172.000.671.67
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %25% (-4pp vs league)
This opponent (Ilirija) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

IlirijaIlirija

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-400D02L11D01L00D04L23L00D30W00DA·DRA20/08H·RUD30/08H·KRK03/09A·BIS08/09A·TRI15/09H·GOR20/09A·FUŽ23/09H·PRI29/09A·TAB08/10H·BEL15/10
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.1
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.501.171.531.201.471.13
vs Stronger (7)1.141.141.332.331.000.25
vs Similar (23)1.611.171.580.921.641.45
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %43% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Tolmin) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%12%18%24%7%014%124%222%316%49%57%6+
The model estimates around 2.9 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (24%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
79.1%
Under 1.5
20.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
54.7%
Under 2.5
45.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
32.3%
Under 3.5
67.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
57.2%
No
42.8%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.3%
1-2
9.6%
0-1
8.6%
0-2
8.4%
0-0
6.8%
2-1
6.4%
2-2
5.5%
1-3
5.5%
Tolmin goals ↓
Ilirija goals →
01234
06.8%8.6%8.4%4.8%2.1%
15.4%12%9.6%5.5%2.4%
23.7%6.4%5.5%3.2%1.4%
31.4%2.5%2.1%1.2%0.5%
40.4%0.7%0.6%0.3%0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Tolmin goals (down), columns = Ilirija goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Primorje
2.00
Nafta
1.93
Beltinci
1.87
Gorica
1.77
Brinje-Grosuplje
1.73
Triglav
1.60
Bistrica
1.47
Rudar
1.23
Dekani
1.20
Bilje
1.13
Tolmin
1.13
Dravinja
1.13
Krka
1.10
Tabor Sežana
1.00
Ilirija
1.00
Fužinar
0.80
Tolmin is 0.13 points better than Ilirija in terms of average points per game (1.13 vs 1.00).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Nafta
1.83
Brinje-Grosuplje
1.73
Gorica
1.70
Beltinci
1.63
Primorje
1.63
Bistrica
1.50
Bilje
1.47
Triglav
1.47
Krka
1.33
Tabor Sežana
1.27
Dekani
1.13
Tolmin
1.13
Fužinar
1.10
Rudar
1.10
Ilirija
1.03
Dravinja
0.97
Tolmin is 0.10 goals better than Ilirija in terms of goals scored per game (1.13 vs 1.03).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Beltinci
0.80
Primorje
0.83
Gorica
0.93
Nafta
1.03
Brinje-Grosuplje
1.17
Triglav
1.17
Dekani
1.23
Dravinja
1.40
Ilirija
1.47
Tolmin
1.50
Bistrica
1.53
Krka
1.63
Rudar
1.63
Bilje
1.70
Tabor Sežana
1.97
Fužinar
2.03
Tolmin is 0.03 goals worse than Ilirija in terms of goals conceded per game (1.50 vs 1.47).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

TolminTolmin

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-302L01L02L11D10W03L21W10W11D00DH·TRI19/08A·PRI29/08H·BRI04/09A·BIL09/09H·RUD16/09A·NAF21/09H·DEK24/09A·DRA01/10H·KRK08/10A·BIS14/10
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.1
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.581.080.831.000.331.17
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (12)0.581.080.831.000.331.17
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %33% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (Ilirija) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

IlirijaIlirija

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
10-100D00D10W01L00D01L01L00D10W00DA·DRA20/08H·RUD30/08H·KRK03/09A·BIS08/09A·TRI15/09H·GOR20/09A·FUŽ23/09H·PRI29/09A·TAB08/10H·BEL15/10
Avg total
0.5
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.3
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.700.570.800.400.600.73
vs Stronger (7)0.140.430.330.670.000.25
vs Similar (23)0.870.610.920.330.820.91
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %53% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Tolmin) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Tolmin over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tolmin over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tolmin over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ilirija over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ilirija over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ilirija over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

TolminTolmin

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-202L00D01L01L20W00D01L01L02L10WH·TRI19/08A·PRI29/08H·BRI04/09A·BIL09/09H·RUD16/09A·NAF21/09H·DEK24/09A·DRA01/10H·KRK08/10A·BIS14/10
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.330.750.331.000.330.50
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (12)0.330.750.331.000.330.50
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %42% (+13pp vs league)
This opponent (Ilirija) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

IlirijaIlirija

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-300D02L01L00D00D03L22D00D20W00DA·DRA20/08H·RUD30/08H·KRK03/09A·BIS08/09A·TRI15/09H·GOR20/09A·FUŽ23/09H·PRI29/09A·TAB08/10H·BEL15/10
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.800.600.730.800.870.40
vs Stronger (7)1.000.711.001.671.000.00
vs Similar (23)0.740.570.670.580.820.55
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %70% (+41pp vs league)
This opponent (Tolmin) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Tolmin over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tolmin over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tolmin over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ilirija over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ilirija over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ilirija over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.579.1%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BRI (24)
€3m
NAF (18)
€2m
TRI (19)
€2m
TS (17)
€2m
BEL (17)
€2m
ILI (15)
€1m
DRA (16)
€1m
DEK (18)
€1m
BIL (17)
€1m
RUD (17)
€1m
KRK (12)
€1m
BIS (14)
€1m
PRI (10)
€1m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
NAF (8)
€1m
BRI (7)
€1m
BEL (8)
€1m
TRI (7)
€1m
ILI (7)
€1m
TS (4)
€1m
BIL (5)
€1m
KRK (5)
€0m
BIS (6)
€0m
DRA (4)
€0m
DEK (3)
€0m
RUD (3)
€0m
PRI (3)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BRI (7)
€1m
TS (5)
€1m
RUD (8)
€1m
TRI (5)
€0m
DEK (6)
€0m
BEL (3)
€0m
PRI (2)
€0m
BIS (4)
€0m
NAF (2)
€0m
ILI (2)
€0m
DRA (2)
€0m
BIL (4)
€0m
KRK (1)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BRI (10)
€1m
NAF (8)
€1m
TRI (7)
€1m
DRA (10)
€1m
TS (8)
€1m
KRK (6)
€1m
BEL (6)
€1m
BIL (8)
€1m
DEK (9)
€1m
RUD (6)
€0m
ILI (6)
€0m
PRI (5)
€0m
BIS (4)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

No previous meetings
0
TOL wins
0
Draws
0
ILI wins

Head-to-head

Tolmin vs Ilirija · H/A from TOL
DateH/AGameScore
No games.

TolminTolmin

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
14/10/23ABistrica Vs TOL0-1
08/10/23HTOL Vs Krka1-3
01/10/23ADravinja Vs TOL1-1
24/09/23HTOL Vs Dekani2-2
21/09/23ANafta Vs TOL3-0
16/09/23HTOL Vs Rudar3-0
09/09/23ABilje Vs TOL2-1
04/09/23HTOL Vs Brinje-Grosuplje0-3
29/08/23APrimorje Vs TOL1-0
19/08/23HTOL Vs Triglav0-4

IlirijaIlirija

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
15/10/23HILI Vs Beltinci0-0
08/10/23ATabor Sežana Vs ILI0-3
29/09/23HILI Vs Primorje0-0
23/09/23AFužinar Vs ILI3-2
20/09/23HILI Vs Gorica0-4
15/09/23ATriglav Vs ILI0-0
08/09/23ABistrica Vs ILI1-0
03/09/23HILI Vs Krka1-1
30/08/23HILI Vs Rudar0-2
20/08/23ADravinja Vs ILI0-0

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Tolmin
Tolmin
Slovenia: 2. SNL
Recent: 2 Wins / 2 Draws / 6 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLDDLW0.92
HomeLLWDL1.17
AwayLLLDW0.67
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %25%33%17%
AVG goals2.753.172.33
Over 1.5 %75%83%67%
Over 2.5 %67%83%50%
Over 3.5 %33%50%17%
Scored0.921.170.67
Conceded1.832.001.67
BTTS42%33%50%
Clean Sheet25%33%17%
Corners---
Cards---
Ilirija
Ilirija
Slovenia: 2. SNL
Recent: 1 Wins / 5 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLLDWD1.55
HomeLDLDD1.62
AwayDLDLW1.48
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %43%43%43%
AVG goals2.572.572.57
Over 1.5 %69%71%67%
Over 2.5 %45%43%48%
Over 3.5 %36%33%38%
Scored1.521.521.52
Conceded1.051.051.05
BTTS38%48%29%
Clean Sheet45%43%48%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1PrimorjePrimorje3060
57%
2.0
4925+24
2.5
70%
50%
30%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.60.8
-
2NaftaNafta3058
60%
1.9
5531+24
2.9
77%
53%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.81.0
-
3BeltinciBeltinci3056
57%
1.9
4924+25
2.4
67%
47%
17%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.60.8
-
4GoricaGorica3053
50%
1.8
5128+23
2.6
67%
47%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.70.9
-
5Brinje-GrosupljeBrinje-Grosuplje3052
50%
1.7
5235+17
2.9
80%
50%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1111.71.2
-
6TriglavTriglav3048
47%
1.6
4435+9
2.6
80%
60%
23%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.51.2
-
7BistricaBistrica3044
43%
1.5
4546-1
3.0
73%
57%
37%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.51.5
-
8RudarRudar3037
33%
1.2
3349-16
2.7
67%
43%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0101.11.6
-
9DekaniDekani3036
30%
1.2
3437-3
2.4
60%
47%
27%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0011.11.2
-
10BiljeBilje3034
30%
1.1
4451-7
3.2
83%
63%
47%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
1011.51.7
-
11TolminTolmin3034
27%
1.1
3445-11
2.6
73%
57%
37%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.11.5
-
12DravinjaDravinja3034
30%
1.1
2942-13
2.4
63%
50%
20%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0011.01.4
-
13KrkaKrka3033
30%
1.1
4049-9
3.0
80%
57%
30%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0011.31.6
-
14IlirijaIlirija3030
23%
1.0
3144-13
2.5
77%
50%
27%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
1001.01.5
-
15Tabor SežanaTabor Sežana3030
23%
1.0
3859-21
3.2
83%
60%
43%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1111.32.0
-
16FužinarFužinar3024
20%
0.8
3361-28
3.1
80%
57%
37%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.12.0
-
Slovenia: 2. SNL 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Slovenia: 2. SNL stats & trends →

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