Torpedo Kutaisi are the clear favourites to win the Erovnuli Liga clash against Dila, with a 46% chance of victory versus 27% each for a draw or an away win. The match is expected to see about 2.7 goals, with the most likely total of two goals occurring 26% of the time. The single scoreline the model deems most probable is 1-1, with a 13.1% chance, even though the final result will be a 1-0 home win. Torpedo’s home form shows they average 1.88 goals scored and 2.12 conceded against teams of similar strength, while Dila, on the road, averages only 1.0 goal scored and 1.33 conceded. The model’s selections include Over 1.5 goals at 76.8%, Under 11.5 corners at 71.6%, and Under 3.5 goals at 70.8%. The home win probability is 46%, the draw probability 27%, and the away win probability 27%. Torpedo’s recent form, after a 0-2 loss to Meshakhte, and Dila’s 1-2 defeat to Dinamo Tbilisi, add extra context to the predicted outcome.
Results analysis
The win extends Torpedo Kutaisi’s run, finishing 1-0 to secure a home victory. The model’s pre-match favourite, Home win, was correct, with a 46% probability. The predicted most likely total of two goals fell short, as only one goal was scored. The Over 1.5 selection missed, while the Under 3.5 hit, reflecting the low-scoring affair. The model’s 76.8% chance for Over 1.5 proved too optimistic, whereas the 70.8% chance for Under 3.5 proved accurate. Overall, the model’s call and the two highlighted selections performed well, delivering a balanced and accurate assessment of the match outcome.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Torpedo Kutaisi win✓ Hit
45.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
27.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Dila win✗ Miss
26.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Torpedo Kutaisi
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.6
Avg scored
2.5
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.87
1.27
2.38
1.56
1.29
0.93
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (16)
1.62
1.56
1.88
2.12
1.38
1.00
vs Weaker (14)
2.14
0.93
2.88
1.00
1.17
0.83
Clean sheet %
27% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (Dila) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Dila
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.50
1.13
1.94
1.00
1.00
1.29
vs Stronger (2)
1.50
1.00
2.00
0.00
1.00
2.00
vs Similar (12)
1.25
1.50
1.50
1.67
1.00
1.33
vs Weaker (16)
1.69
0.88
2.22
0.67
1.00
1.14
Clean sheet %
30% (+2pp vs league)
This opponent (Torpedo Kutaisi) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
76.8%
Under 1.5
23.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
51.3%
Under 2.5
48.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
29.2%
Under 3.5
70.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
55.5%
No
44.5%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.1%
2-1
9.3%
1-0 ✓
9.1%
2-0
8.0%
0-0
7.7%
1-2
6.9%
0-1
6.4%
2-2
5.4%
Torpedo Kutaisi goals ↓
Dila goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
7.7%
6.4%
4.4%
1.7%
0.5%
1
9.1%
13%
6.9%
2.7%
0.8%
2
8.0%
9.3%
5.4%
2.1%
0.6%
3
4.2%
4.9%
2.8%
1.1%
0.3%
4
1.6%
1.9%
1.1%
0.4%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Torpedo Kutaisi goals (down), columns = Dila goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Saburtalo
2.08
Torpedo Kutaisi
1.94
Dila
1.89
Dinamo Batumi
1.53
Rustavi
1.50
Samgurali
1.22
Kolkheti Poti
1.14
Dinamo Tbilisi
1.08
Gagra
1.05
Sioni
1.00
Telavi
0.97
Samtredia
0.75
Torpedo Kutaisi is 0.06 points better than Dila in terms of average points per game (1.94 vs 1.89).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Saburtalo
2.06
Torpedo Kutaisi
1.61
Dila
1.61
Samgurali
1.42
Kolkheti Poti
1.33
Dinamo Batumi
1.17
Gagra
1.00
Rustavi
1.00
Sioni
1.00
Samtredia
0.92
Dinamo Tbilisi
0.92
Telavi
0.89
Torpedo Kutaisi and Dila are level in goals scored per game (both 1.61).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Dila
0.83
Rustavi
1.00
Sioni
1.00
Torpedo Kutaisi
1.11
Dinamo Batumi
1.14
Telavi
1.18
Dinamo Tbilisi
1.22
Saburtalo
1.28
Samgurali
1.36
Gagra
1.45
Kolkheti Poti
1.61
Samtredia
1.69
Torpedo Kutaisi is 0.28 goals worse than Dila in terms of goals conceded per game (1.11 vs 0.83).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Torpedo Kutaisi
For 5.2 · Against 5.0 · Total 10.2
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 3.7 · Against 2.7 · Total 6.3
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 14.0 · Against 14.0 · Total 28.0
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Dila
For 4.5 · Against 5.0 · Total 9.5
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.2 · Against 3.0 · Total 5.2
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 18.3 · Against 12.3 · Total 30.7
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Torpedo Kutaisi
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.2
11.5
9.0
0.4
0.3
0.5
28.0
-
28.0
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (25)
10.2
11.5
9.0
0.8
0.5
1.0
28.0
-
28.0
vs Weaker (25)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
75%
100%
50%
6%
4%
8%
100%
-
100%
% under line
25%
0%
50%
94%
96%
92%
0%
-
0%
This opponent (Dila) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Dila
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.5
10.3
8.7
0.6
0.4
0.8
30.7
31.0
30.0
vs Stronger (2)
10.0
12.0
8.0
4.5
3.0
6.0
-
-
-
vs Similar (24)
6.0
4.0
8.0
0.4
0.3
0.5
34.5
39.0
30.0
vs Weaker (24)
12.5
15.0
10.0
0.5
0.4
0.6
23.0
23.0
-
% over line
50%
67%
33%
8%
4%
12%
100%
100%
100%
% under line
50%
33%
67%
92%
96%
88%
0%
0%
0%
This opponent (Torpedo Kutaisi) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Torpedo Kutaisi
10.2
Saburtalo
10.2
Dila
8.9
Dinamo Tbilisi
7.8
Dinamo Batumi
7.0
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Torpedo Kutaisi
6.3
Dila
5.2
Saburtalo
5.0
Dinamo Batumi
4.5
Dinamo Tbilisi
3.2
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Dila
30.7
Torpedo Kutaisi
28.0
Dinamo Tbilisi
25.0
Dinamo Batumi
24.5
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
52.0%
Under 9.5
48.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
0.0%
Under 3.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
0.0%
Under 21.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Torpedo Kutaisi
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.57
0.88
0.44
0.36
0.71
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (16)
0.44
0.69
0.62
0.50
0.25
0.88
vs Weaker (14)
0.86
0.43
1.12
0.38
0.50
0.50
Clean sheet %
53% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Dila) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Dila
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.60
0.94
0.44
0.50
0.79
vs Stronger (2)
1.00
1.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
2.00
vs Similar (12)
0.67
0.83
0.67
0.67
0.67
1.00
vs Weaker (16)
0.75
0.38
1.11
0.33
0.29
0.43
Clean sheet %
57% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Torpedo Kutaisi) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Torpedo Kutaisi over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Torpedo Kutaisi over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Torpedo Kutaisi over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dila over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dila over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dila over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Torpedo Kutaisi
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.23
0.70
1.50
1.12
0.93
0.21
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (16)
1.19
0.88
1.25
1.62
1.12
0.12
vs Weaker (14)
1.29
0.50
1.75
0.62
0.67
0.33
Clean sheet %
57% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Dila) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Dila
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.53
1.00
0.56
0.50
0.50
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
0.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (12)
0.58
0.67
0.83
1.00
0.33
0.33
vs Weaker (16)
0.94
0.50
1.11
0.33
0.71
0.71
Clean sheet %
60% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (Torpedo Kutaisi) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Torpedo Kutaisi over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Torpedo Kutaisi over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Torpedo Kutaisi over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dila over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dila over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dila over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
76.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 11.5 corners
71.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
70.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DT (26)
€7m
TK (22)
€7m
DB (25)
€6m
SAB (22)
€6m
DIL (23)
€4m
SAM (24)
€3m
GAG (23)
€3m
RUS (22)
€2m
KP (3)
€0m
SAM (4)
€0m
Torpedo Kutaisi's squad is €3m more valuable than Dila's (€7m vs €4m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DB (9)
€3m
DT (11)
€3m
SAB (7)
€3m
TK (7)
€2m
DIL (8)
€2m
SAM (9)
€1m
GAG (8)
€1m
RUS (8)
€1m
KP (2)
€0m
SAM (1)
€0m
Torpedo Kutaisi and Dila have a similar attack value (both €2m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TK (5)
€2m
SAB (5)
€2m
DB (6)
€1m
SAM (5)
€1m
GAG (6)
€1m
DT (4)
€1m
DIL (6)
€1m
RUS (4)
€0m
SAM (1)
€0m
KP (0)
€0m
Torpedo Kutaisi's midfield is €2m more valuable than Dila's (€2m vs €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DT (11)
€3m
SAB (10)
€2m
TK (10)
€2m
DIL (9)
€2m
DB (10)
€2m
SAM (10)
€1m
RUS (10)
€1m
GAG (9)
€1m
SAM (2)
€0m
KP (1)
€0m
Torpedo Kutaisi and Dila have a similar defence value (both €2m).
Georgia: Erovnuli Liga 2024/25 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Georgia: Erovnuli Liga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Saburtalo
Dinamo Batumi
Samgurali
Kolkheti Poti
Gagra
Dinamo Tbilisi
Telavi
Samtredia
Rustavi
Sioni