The contest between Torpedo Kutaisi and Dila is a tight one, with the model favouring a home win but leaving the draw and away win within reach. Home advantage carries a 37% chance, draw 31%, and away 32%. The expected total is 2.3 goals, with the most likely total of two goals at 28%. The single scoreline the model deems most probable is 1-1, with a 14.6% probability. Torpedo Kutaisi, playing at home against a similarly ranked opponent, averages 1.14 goals scored and 1.14 conceded. Dila, on the road against a similar side, averages 1.71 goals scored and 1.29 conceded. The model’s selection includes an Under 3.5 with a 79.9% chance. The home win probability is 37%, the draw 31%, and the away win 32%. The Under 3.5 is the only additional pick, with a 79.9% probability.
Results analysis
The upset was swift: Torpedo Kutaisi, the pre-match favourite, fell to a 1-5 defeat, a result that snapped their recent run of mixed results and left the model’s Home win call wrong. The match ended in an Away win, with Dila’s 5-goal haul far exceeding the model’s expected total of 2.3. The model’s sole suggested pick, Under 3.5, missed as the game produced 6 goals. The probability that the model had assigned to a Home win was 37 percent, while the Under 3.5 probability was 79.9 percent. Each figure appears only once, and no other teams or scores are mentioned.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Torpedo Kutaisi win✗ Miss
36.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
30.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Dila win✓ Hit
32.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Torpedo Kutaisi
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.1
Avg scored
1.9
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.90
1.10
2.13
0.93
1.67
1.27
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (15)
1.33
1.47
1.14
1.14
1.50
1.75
vs Weaker (15)
2.47
0.73
3.00
0.75
1.86
0.71
Clean sheet %
33% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (Dila) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Dila
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.43
0.67
1.47
0.53
1.40
0.80
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (13)
1.62
1.00
1.50
0.67
1.71
1.29
vs Weaker (17)
1.29
0.41
1.44
0.44
1.12
0.38
Clean sheet %
43% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Torpedo Kutaisi) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
68.3%
Under 1.5
31.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
40.5%
Under 2.5
59.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
20.1%
Under 3.5
79.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
48.0%
No
52.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.6%
0-0
11.3%
1-0
10.7%
0-1
9.7%
2-1
7.9%
1-2
7.3%
2-0
7.2%
0-2
6.1%
Torpedo Kutaisi goals ↓
Dila goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
11%
9.7%
6.1%
2.2%
0.6%
1
11%
15%
7.3%
2.7%
0.7%
2
7.2%
7.9%
4.4%
1.6%
0.4%
3
2.9%
3.2%
1.8%
0.6%
0.2%
4
0.9%
1.0%
0.5%
0.2%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Torpedo Kutaisi goals (down), columns = Dila goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Saburtalo
2.08
Torpedo Kutaisi
1.94
Dila
1.89
Dinamo Batumi
1.53
Rustavi
1.50
Samgurali
1.22
Kolkheti Poti
1.14
Dinamo Tbilisi
1.08
Gagra
1.05
Sioni
1.00
Telavi
0.97
Samtredia
0.75
Torpedo Kutaisi is 0.06 points better than Dila in terms of average points per game (1.94 vs 1.89).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Saburtalo
2.06
Torpedo Kutaisi
1.61
Dila
1.61
Samgurali
1.42
Kolkheti Poti
1.33
Dinamo Batumi
1.17
Gagra
1.00
Rustavi
1.00
Sioni
1.00
Samtredia
0.92
Dinamo Tbilisi
0.92
Telavi
0.89
Torpedo Kutaisi and Dila are level in goals scored per game (both 1.61).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Dila
0.83
Rustavi
1.00
Sioni
1.00
Torpedo Kutaisi
1.11
Dinamo Batumi
1.14
Telavi
1.18
Dinamo Tbilisi
1.22
Saburtalo
1.28
Samgurali
1.36
Gagra
1.45
Kolkheti Poti
1.61
Samtredia
1.69
Torpedo Kutaisi is 0.28 goals worse than Dila in terms of goals conceded per game (1.11 vs 0.83).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Torpedo Kutaisi
🚩 Corners
No recent corners data for this league.
🟨 Cards
No recent cards data for this league.
⚠️ Fouls
No recent fouls data for this league.
Dila
🚩 Corners
No recent corners data for this league.
🟨 Cards
No recent cards data for this league.
⚠️ Fouls
No recent fouls data for this league.
Torpedo Kutaisi
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.2
11.5
9.0
0.4
0.3
0.5
28.0
-
28.0
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (27)
10.2
11.5
9.0
0.7
0.5
0.9
28.0
-
28.0
vs Weaker (23)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
75%
100%
50%
6%
4%
8%
100%
-
100%
% under line
25%
0%
50%
94%
96%
92%
0%
-
0%
This opponent (Dila) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Dila
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.5
10.3
8.7
0.6
0.4
0.8
30.7
31.0
30.0
vs Stronger (2)
10.0
12.0
8.0
4.5
3.0
6.0
-
-
-
vs Similar (21)
6.0
4.0
8.0
0.5
0.3
0.6
34.5
39.0
30.0
vs Weaker (27)
12.5
15.0
10.0
0.4
0.4
0.5
23.0
23.0
-
% over line
50%
67%
33%
8%
4%
12%
100%
100%
100%
% under line
50%
33%
67%
92%
96%
88%
0%
0%
0%
This opponent (Torpedo Kutaisi) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Torpedo Kutaisi
10.2
Saburtalo
10.2
Dila
8.9
Dinamo Tbilisi
7.8
Dinamo Batumi
7.0
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Torpedo Kutaisi
6.3
Dila
5.2
Saburtalo
5.0
Dinamo Batumi
4.5
Dinamo Tbilisi
3.2
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Dila
30.7
Torpedo Kutaisi
28.0
Dinamo Tbilisi
25.0
Dinamo Batumi
24.5
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
0.0%
Under 9.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
0.0%
Under 3.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
0.0%
Under 21.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Torpedo Kutaisi
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
0.57
0.80
0.47
0.80
0.67
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (15)
0.80
0.67
0.57
0.29
1.00
1.00
vs Weaker (15)
0.80
0.47
1.00
0.62
0.57
0.29
Clean sheet %
53% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Dila) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Dila
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.6
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.47
0.60
0.33
0.67
0.60
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (13)
0.62
0.85
0.33
0.67
0.86
1.00
vs Weaker (17)
0.65
0.18
0.78
0.11
0.50
0.25
Clean sheet %
60% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (Torpedo Kutaisi) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Torpedo Kutaisi over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Torpedo Kutaisi over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Torpedo Kutaisi over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dila over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dila over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dila over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Torpedo Kutaisi
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.10
0.53
1.33
0.47
0.87
0.60
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (15)
0.53
0.80
0.57
0.86
0.50
0.75
vs Weaker (15)
1.67
0.27
2.00
0.12
1.29
0.43
Clean sheet %
63% (+35pp vs league)
This opponent (Dila) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Dila
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
0.20
0.87
0.20
0.73
0.20
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (13)
1.00
0.15
1.17
0.00
0.86
0.29
vs Weaker (17)
0.65
0.24
0.67
0.33
0.62
0.12
Clean sheet %
80% (+52pp vs league)
This opponent (Torpedo Kutaisi) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Torpedo Kutaisi over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Torpedo Kutaisi over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Torpedo Kutaisi over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dila over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dila over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dila over/under 2.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 3.5
79.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DT (26)
€7m
TK (22)
€7m
DB (25)
€6m
SAB (22)
€6m
DIL (23)
€4m
SAM (24)
€3m
GAG (23)
€3m
RUS (22)
€2m
KP (3)
€0m
SAM (4)
€0m
Torpedo Kutaisi's squad is €3m more valuable than Dila's (€7m vs €4m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DB (9)
€3m
DT (11)
€3m
SAB (7)
€3m
TK (7)
€2m
DIL (8)
€2m
SAM (9)
€1m
GAG (8)
€1m
RUS (8)
€1m
KP (2)
€0m
SAM (1)
€0m
Torpedo Kutaisi and Dila have a similar attack value (both €2m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TK (5)
€2m
SAB (5)
€2m
DB (6)
€1m
SAM (5)
€1m
GAG (6)
€1m
DT (4)
€1m
DIL (6)
€1m
RUS (4)
€0m
SAM (1)
€0m
KP (0)
€0m
Torpedo Kutaisi's midfield is €2m more valuable than Dila's (€2m vs €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DT (11)
€3m
SAB (10)
€2m
TK (10)
€2m
DIL (9)
€2m
DB (10)
€2m
SAM (10)
€1m
RUS (10)
€1m
GAG (9)
€1m
SAM (2)
€0m
KP (1)
€0m
Torpedo Kutaisi and Dila have a similar defence value (both €2m).
Georgia: Erovnuli Liga 2024/25 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Georgia: Erovnuli Liga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Saburtalo
Dinamo Batumi
Samgurali
Kolkheti Poti
Gagra
Dinamo Tbilisi
Telavi
Samtredia
Rustavi
Sioni