Dinamo Batumi are tipped to lift the match, the model’s pick showing a 42% chance of an away win against Torpedo Kutaisi. The encounter is expected to see 2.7 goals on average, with the most likely total being 2 goals. The single scoreline the model flags as most probable is 1-1, carrying a 13.2% chance. Torpedo Kutaisi, playing at home against a similarly ranked side, have been averaging 1.0 goal scored and conceding none, while Dinamo Batumi on the road have also averaged 1.0 goal scored but have yielded 2.0 goals. The home win probability stands at 31%, the draw at 28%, and the away win at 42%. Suggested picks include Over 1.5 goals with a 77.2% probability and Under 3.5 goals with a 70.3% probability. The recent form narrative shows Torpedo coming off a draw, whereas Dinamo are riding a three-game winning streak.
Results analysis
The model’s prediction proved accurate as Dinamo Batumi secured a 0-3 victory, extending their three-match winning streak. The pre-match favourite was the away win, assigned a 42% probability, and the model’s call was correct. The suggested picks also came through: Over 1.5 goals, with a 77.2% chance, hit; Under 3.5 goals, at 70.3%, also hit. The most likely scoreline was 1-1, yet the match finished 0-3. The home side, Torpedo Kutaisi, had been coming off a draw, while Dinamo Batumi were on a strong run, both factors aligning with the model’s forecast. The final result matched the predicted outcome, confirming the model’s reliability.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Torpedo Kutaisi win✗ Miss
30.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
27.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Dinamo Batumi win✓ Hit
41.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Torpedo Kutaisi
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
1.38
1.67
1.33
0.60
1.40
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (4)
0.50
1.75
1.00
0.00
0.33
2.33
vs Weaker (4)
1.50
1.00
2.00
2.00
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
38% (+9pp vs league)
This opponent (Dinamo Batumi) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Dinamo Batumi
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.4
Avg scored
2.6
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.62
0.75
3.00
0.80
2.00
0.67
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (4)
2.50
1.00
3.00
0.67
1.00
2.00
vs Weaker (4)
2.75
0.50
3.00
1.00
2.50
0.00
Clean sheet %
62% (+34pp vs league)
This opponent (Torpedo Kutaisi) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
77.2%
Under 1.5
22.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
51.8%
Under 2.5
48.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
29.7%
Under 3.5
70.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
56.6%
No
43.4%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.2%
1-2
9.0%
0-1
8.4%
0-0
7.6%
2-1
7.5%
0-2
7.1%
1-0
6.8%
2-2
5.6%
Torpedo Kutaisi goals ↓
Dinamo Batumi goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
7.6%
8.4%
7.1%
3.6%
1.3%
1
6.8%
13%
9.0%
4.5%
1.7%
2
5.0%
7.5%
5.6%
2.8%
1.0%
3
2.1%
3.1%
2.4%
1.2%
0.4%
4
0.7%
1.0%
0.7%
0.4%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Torpedo Kutaisi goals (down), columns = Dinamo Batumi goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Samtredia
3.00
Dinamo Tbilisi
2.22
Dinamo Batumi
2.14
Dila
1.64
Samgurali
1.58
Torpedo Kutaisi
1.50
Spaeri
1.50
Saburtalo
1.31
Telavi
1.08
Gagra
1.03
Sioni
0.95
Lokomotivi Tbilisi
0.22
Torpedo Kutaisi is 0.64 points worse than Dinamo Batumi in terms of average points per game (1.50 vs 2.14).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Dinamo Batumi
2.42
Dinamo Tbilisi
2.03
Samgurali
1.53
Samtredia
1.50
Saburtalo
1.42
Torpedo Kutaisi
1.33
Dila
1.33
Sioni
1.00
Gagra
1.00
Spaeri
1.00
Telavi
0.81
Lokomotivi Tbilisi
0.78
Torpedo Kutaisi is 1.08 goals worse than Dinamo Batumi in terms of goals scored per game (1.33 vs 2.42).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Samtredia
0.00
Dinamo Tbilisi
0.81
Dinamo Batumi
0.94
Dila
0.97
Telavi
1.00
Spaeri
1.00
Samgurali
1.22
Torpedo Kutaisi
1.33
Saburtalo
1.36
Gagra
1.55
Sioni
1.66
Lokomotivi Tbilisi
2.81
Torpedo Kutaisi is 0.39 goals worse than Dinamo Batumi in terms of goals conceded per game (1.33 vs 0.94).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Torpedo Kutaisi
🚩 Corners
No recent corners data for this league.
🟨 Cards
No recent cards data for this league.
⚠️ Fouls
No recent fouls data for this league.
Dinamo Batumi
🚩 Corners
No recent corners data for this league.
🟨 Cards
No recent cards data for this league.
⚠️ Fouls
No recent fouls data for this league.
Torpedo Kutaisi
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (8)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (4)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Weaker (4)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
-
-
-
0%
0%
0%
-
-
-
% under line
-
-
-
100%
100%
100%
-
-
-
This opponent (Dinamo Batumi) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Dinamo Batumi
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (8)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (4)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Weaker (4)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
-
-
-
0%
0%
0%
-
-
-
% under line
-
-
-
100%
100%
100%
-
-
-
This opponent (Torpedo Kutaisi) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Not collected for this league yet.
🟨 Total Cards
Not collected for this league yet.
⚠️ Total Fouls
Not collected for this league yet.
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
0.0%
Under 9.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
0.0%
Under 3.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
0.0%
Under 21.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Torpedo Kutaisi
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.62
0.88
1.00
0.67
0.40
1.00
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (4)
0.50
1.25
1.00
0.00
0.33
1.67
vs Weaker (4)
0.75
0.50
1.00
1.00
0.50
0.00
Clean sheet %
50% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Dinamo Batumi) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Dinamo Batumi
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.25
0.25
1.60
0.40
0.67
0.00
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (4)
1.00
0.25
1.33
0.33
0.00
0.00
vs Weaker (4)
1.50
0.25
2.00
0.50
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
75% (+47pp vs league)
This opponent (Torpedo Kutaisi) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Torpedo Kutaisi over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Torpedo Kutaisi over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Torpedo Kutaisi over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dinamo Batumi over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dinamo Batumi over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dinamo Batumi over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Torpedo Kutaisi
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.38
0.50
0.67
0.67
0.20
0.40
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (4)
0.00
0.50
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.67
vs Weaker (4)
0.75
0.50
1.00
1.00
0.50
0.00
Clean sheet %
75% (+47pp vs league)
This opponent (Dinamo Batumi) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Dinamo Batumi
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.38
0.50
1.40
0.40
1.33
0.67
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (4)
1.50
0.75
1.67
0.33
1.00
2.00
vs Weaker (4)
1.25
0.25
1.00
0.50
1.50
0.00
Clean sheet %
62% (+34pp vs league)
This opponent (Torpedo Kutaisi) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Torpedo Kutaisi over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Torpedo Kutaisi over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Torpedo Kutaisi over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dinamo Batumi over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dinamo Batumi over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dinamo Batumi over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
77.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
70.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DT (26)
€7m
TK (22)
€7m
DB (25)
€6m
SAB (22)
€6m
DIL (23)
€4m
SAM (24)
€3m
GAG (23)
€3m
SPA (20)
€2m
SAM (4)
€0m
Torpedo Kutaisi and Dinamo Batumi have a similar squad value (both €7m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DB (9)
€3m
DT (11)
€3m
SAB (7)
€3m
TK (7)
€2m
DIL (8)
€2m
SAM (9)
€1m
GAG (8)
€1m
SPA (8)
€1m
SAM (1)
€0m
Torpedo Kutaisi and Dinamo Batumi have a similar attack value (both €2m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TK (5)
€2m
SAB (5)
€2m
DB (6)
€1m
SAM (5)
€1m
GAG (6)
€1m
DT (4)
€1m
DIL (6)
€1m
SPA (4)
€0m
SAM (1)
€0m
Torpedo Kutaisi and Dinamo Batumi have a similar midfield value (both €2m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DT (11)
€3m
SAB (10)
€2m
TK (10)
€2m
DIL (9)
€2m
DB (10)
€2m
SAM (10)
€1m
GAG (9)
€1m
SPA (8)
€1m
SAM (2)
€0m
Torpedo Kutaisi and Dinamo Batumi have a similar defence value (both €2m).
Georgia: Erovnuli Liga 2022/23 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Georgia: Erovnuli Liga stats & trends →