Tottenham’s recent 5-1 demolition of Charlton fuels optimism for a high-scoring clash, while Newcastle’s 3-2 win over West Brom suggests they can keep the scoreline close. The model favours a home win, assigning a 46% chance, with a 23% draw probability and a 30% chance for Newcastle. The expected total is 3.6 goals, centring on a 3-goal outcome that carries a 21% probability. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, with a 9.8% chance.
At home, Tottenham averages 1.27 goals scored and 1.82 conceded against similarly-matched teams; Newcastle, on the road, averages 1.33 scored and 1.17 conceded. The model’s selections include Under 7.5 (99.3%), Home under 2.5 HT goals (98.4%), Under 6.5 (97.8%), Away under 2.5 HT goals (97.0%), Home under 2.5 2H goals (96.9%), Away under 2.5 2H goals (95.9%), Home under 3.5 goals (95.3%), and Away under 3.5 goals (94.5%). Each selection carries its own probability, with edges noted where provided.
Results analysis
Tottenham’s loss to Newcastle was a shock, ending a winless run at home and proving the pre-match favourite, Home win, was wrong. The final score was 0-2, an away victory that contradicted the model’s 45% chance of a home win. The model’s prediction of a 3-goal total proved off, as only two goals were scored. Every suggested pick was a hit: Under 7.5 (99.3%), Home under 2.5 HT goals (98.4%), Under 6.5 (97.8%), Away under 2.5 HT goals (97.0%), Home under 2.5 2H goals (96.9%), Away under 2.5 2H goals (95.9%), Home under 3.5 goals (95.3%) and Away under 3.5 goals (94.5%). Newcastle’s two-game winning streak continued, while Tottenham’s form remained shaky.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Tottenham win✗ Miss
45.3%
Avg Implied 42.7% · @ 2.23
Edge
+2.6%
Best 5 market prices
10Bet
2.60
Dafabet
2.32
1xBet
2.26
Pinnacle
2.22
Superbet
2.22
Draw✗ Miss
23.6%
Avg Implied 26.0% · @ 3.67
Edge
-2.3%
Best 5 market prices
Bet365
3.80
1xBet
3.80
Marathonbet
3.78
BetVictor
3.75
Betano
3.75
Newcastle win✓ Hit
31.1%
Avg Implied 31.3% · @ 3.05
Edge
-0.2%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
3.23
Pinnacle
3.23
Marathonbet
3.20
Unibet
3.15
Superbet
3.15
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Tottenham
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.27
1.73
1.53
1.80
1.00
1.67
vs Stronger (2)
1.50
3.00
1.50
3.00
-
-
vs Similar (25)
1.08
1.72
1.25
1.67
0.92
1.77
vs Weaker (3)
2.67
1.00
5.00
1.00
1.50
1.00
Clean sheet %
20% (-6pp vs league)
This opponent (Newcastle) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Newcastle
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.1
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
1.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.63
1.83
1.81
1.81
1.43
1.86
vs Stronger (10)
1.00
2.60
1.00
2.00
1.00
3.00
vs Similar (16)
1.69
1.50
1.90
1.70
1.33
1.17
vs Weaker (4)
3.00
1.25
3.00
2.00
3.00
0.50
Clean sheet %
10% (-16pp vs league)
This opponent (Tottenham) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (21%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
87.7%
@ 1.19+8.3%
Under 1.5
12.3%
@ 4.60-8.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
1.36
Betano
1.21
Bet365
1.20
Superbet
1.19
BetVictor
1.17
Under
Unibet
5.10
Betfair
5.00
BetVictor
5.00
Superbet
4.80
Marathonbet
4.80
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
68.6%
@ 1.67+11.1%
Under 2.5
31.4%
@ 2.26-11.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
2.20
1xBet
1.68
Pinnacle
1.66
SBO
1.65
Bet365
1.62
Under
Unibet
2.40
1xBet
2.38
Betano
2.35
Marathonbet
2.35
Pinnacle
2.33
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
47.1%
@ 2.66+11.2%
Under 3.5
52.9%
@ 1.49-11.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
4.33
Pinnacle
2.61
Betano
2.52
Superbet
2.50
Betfair
2.50
Under
Unibet
1.55
Betano
1.55
Superbet
1.54
Pinnacle
1.54
Bet365
1.53
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
69.1%
@ 1.55+8.6%
No
30.9%
@ 2.38-8.6%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
10Bet
1.91
Bet365
1.57
William Hil
1.57
Superbet
1.53
Betano
1.52
No
Betfair
2.60
Unibet
2.55
Superbet
2.47
BetVictor
2.45
1xBet
2.45
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
9.9%@ 6.83+2.8%
2-1
8.8%@ 8.52+3.1%
1-2
7.2%@ 10.08+2.4%
2-2
7.0%@ 11.55+2.8%
3-1
5.7%@ 15.40+2.5%
2-0
5.5%@ 11.84+1.4%
1-0
4.8%@ 9.64-0.3%
3-2
4.5%@ 19.83+2.1%
Tottenham goals ↓
Newcastle goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
3.8%
3.7%
3.7%
2.0%
0.8%
1
4.8%
9.9%
7.2%
3.8%
1.5%
2
5.5%
8.8%
7.0%
3.7%
1.5%
3
3.6%
5.7%
4.5%
2.4%
1.0%
4
1.7%
2.8%
2.2%
1.2%
0.5%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Tottenham goals (down), columns = Newcastle goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Arsenal
2.24
Manchester City
2.05
Manchester United
1.87
Aston Villa
1.71
Liverpool
1.58
Bournemouth
1.50
Sunderland
1.42
Brighton
1.39
Brentford
1.39
Fulham
1.37
Chelsea
1.37
Everton
1.29
Newcastle
1.29
Leeds
1.24
Crystal Palace
1.18
Ipswich
1.18
Nottingham Forest
1.16
Tottenham
1.08
Hull
0.98
Coventry
0.97
Tottenham is 0.21 points worse than Newcastle in terms of average points per game (1.08 vs 1.29).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Manchester City
2.03
Arsenal
1.87
Manchester United
1.82
Liverpool
1.66
Chelsea
1.53
Bournemouth
1.53
Aston Villa
1.47
Brentford
1.45
Newcastle
1.39
Brighton
1.37
Leeds
1.29
Tottenham
1.26
Nottingham Forest
1.26
Fulham
1.24
Everton
1.24
Ipswich
1.19
Sunderland
1.11
Crystal Palace
1.08
Hull
0.99
Coventry
0.98
Tottenham is 0.13 goals worse than Newcastle in terms of goals scored per game (1.26 vs 1.39).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Arsenal
0.71
Manchester City
0.92
Brighton
1.21
Sunderland
1.26
Aston Villa
1.29
Everton
1.32
Manchester United
1.32
Fulham
1.34
Nottingham Forest
1.34
Crystal Palace
1.34
Chelsea
1.37
Brentford
1.37
Liverpool
1.39
Bournemouth
1.42
Newcastle
1.45
Leeds
1.47
Tottenham
1.50
Ipswich
1.58
Hull
1.91
Coventry
1.93
Tottenham is 0.05 goals worse than Newcastle in terms of goals conceded per game (1.50 vs 1.45).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Manchester City
60%
Liverpool
59%
Chelsea
57%
Arsenal
56%
Brighton
53%
Aston Villa
53%
Manchester United
52%
Newcastle
52%
Fulham
51%
Tottenham
50%
Bournemouth
50%
Brentford
47%
Nottingham Forest
46%
Leeds
46%
Crystal Palace
45%
Sunderland
45%
Everton
44%
Tottenham is 1.5 percentage points worse than Newcastle in terms of average possession (50% vs 52%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Tottenham
For 7.4 · Against 4.0 · Total 11.4
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.9 · Against 2.2 · Total 5.1
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 13.2 · Against 11.9 · Total 25.1
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Newcastle
For 4.3 · Against 4.4 · Total 8.7
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.2 · Against 2.8 · Total 5.0
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.5 · Against 14.0 · Total 24.5
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Tottenham
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.0
11.2
8.9
4.5
5.1
3.9
22.7
23.0
22.4
vs Stronger (4)
7.2
7.0
7.5
3.8
4.5
3.0
26.8
27.5
26.0
vs Similar (41)
10.0
10.8
9.2
4.7
5.5
4.0
22.7
23.1
22.4
vs Weaker (5)
12.6
16.3
7.0
3.4
3.0
4.0
19.2
19.0
19.5
% over line
50%
60%
40%
66%
76%
56%
60%
56%
64%
% under line
50%
40%
60%
34%
24%
44%
40%
44%
36%
This opponent (Newcastle) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Newcastle
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
11.0
11.2
10.8
4.3
4.7
3.7
21.6
22.9
20.2
vs Stronger (12)
11.5
13.0
10.0
4.2
4.5
3.8
23.2
24.7
21.8
vs Similar (34)
10.7
10.6
10.9
4.4
4.9
3.9
21.2
22.7
19.4
vs Weaker (4)
12.0
11.5
12.5
3.0
3.5
2.5
20.2
19.5
21.0
% over line
62%
67%
57%
60%
67%
52%
52%
63%
39%
% under line
38%
33%
43%
40%
33%
48%
48%
37%
61%
This opponent (Tottenham) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Newcastle
11.0
Bournemouth
10.6
Fulham
10.5
Hull
10.4
Manchester City
10.3
Liverpool
10.2
Chelsea
10.0
Tottenham
10.0
Ipswich
10.0
Brentford
9.9
Nottingham Forest
9.9
Brighton
9.6
Coventry
9.6
Manchester United
9.6
Leeds
9.5
Aston Villa
9.4
Sunderland
9.2
Everton
9.1
Arsenal
9.0
Crystal Palace
8.7
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Tottenham
4.5
Bournemouth
4.5
Chelsea
4.4
Newcastle
4.3
Ipswich
4.2
Sunderland
4.2
Hull
4.1
Manchester United
4.1
Brighton
4.0
Aston Villa
3.8
Brentford
3.7
Manchester City
3.7
Crystal Palace
3.7
Everton
3.6
Coventry
3.6
Liverpool
3.6
Fulham
3.6
Leeds
3.5
Arsenal
3.5
Nottingham Forest
3.5
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Ipswich
23.8
Aston Villa
23.6
Nottingham Forest
23.5
Bournemouth
23.3
Chelsea
22.8
Sunderland
22.7
Tottenham
22.7
Brighton
22.3
Leeds
22.2
Arsenal
22.1
Manchester United
21.7
Newcastle
21.6
Everton
21.5
Coventry
21.3
Liverpool
21.3
Crystal Palace
21.3
Hull
21.0
Manchester City
21.0
Fulham
19.9
Brentford
19.8
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
63.6%
@ 1.53+3.3%
Under 9.5
36.4%
@ 2.33-3.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
1.60
Pinnacle
1.57
Superbet
1.56
Marathonbet
1.51
Betano
1.50
Under
Betano
2.47
Unibet
2.38
Pinnacle
2.37
Superbet
2.32
Marathonbet
2.32
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
58.4%
@ 1.57-1.0%
Under 3.5
41.6%
@ 2.30+1.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.62
Unibet
1.62
1xBet
1.62
Betano
1.53
Superbet
1.53
Under
Pinnacle
2.54
Betano
2.40
Superbet
2.35
Bet365
2.20
1xBet
2.20
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
52.4%
@ 1.53-7.4%
Under 21.5
47.6%
@ 2.29+7.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.61
1xBet
1.46
Under
1xBet
2.43
Superbet
2.15
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Tottenham or Draw✗ Miss
62.2%
Avg Implied 68.8% · @ 1.37
Edge
-6.6%
45%
24%
31%
covers Tottenham + Draw
Best 5 market prices
10Bet
1.40
1xBet
1.40
Marathonbet
1.39
Superbet
1.39
Betano
1.39
Tottenham or Newcastle✓ Hit
72.1%
Avg Implied 74.2% · @ 1.27
Edge
-2.1%
45%
24%
31%
covers Tottenham + Newcastle
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
1.31
William Hil
1.30
Marathonbet
1.30
Superbet
1.30
Bet365
1.28
Draw or Newcastle✓ Hit
65.8%
Avg Implied 57.0% · @ 1.65
Edge
+8.7%
45%
24%
31%
covers Draw + Newcastle
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.72
Marathonbet
1.72
1xBet
1.72
Superbet
1.68
Unibet
1.68
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Tottenham over/under 0.5Actual: Under
Over
73.7%
@ 1.17-6.1%
Under
26.3%
@ 4.62+6.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.20
Betano
1.19
Bet365
1.18
Superbet
1.17
Unibet
1.15
Under
Betfair
5.00
BetVictor
4.75
Unibet
4.70
Superbet
4.60
Pinnacle
4.57
Tottenham over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
38.6%
@ 1.86-11.9%
Under
61.4%
@ 1.90+11.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.93
Bet365
1.91
1xBet
1.90
Marathonbet
1.87
Betano
1.85
Under
Unibet
1.94
Marathonbet
1.94
Pinnacle
1.93
1xBet
1.91
Betfair
1.91
Tottenham over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
15.1%
@ 3.73-10.0%
Under
84.9%
@ 1.25+10.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
4.00
Pinnacle
3.88
BetVictor
3.80
1xBet
3.75
Betfair
3.75
Under
Betano
1.28
Pinnacle
1.27
Marathonbet
1.26
Unibet
1.26
Superbet
1.25
Tottenham over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
4.7%
@ 8.34-6.5%
Under
95.3%
@ 1.05+6.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
10.00
1xBet
8.90
Marathonbet
8.60
Betfair
8.50
Superbet
8.00
Under
Betano
1.08
Superbet
1.06
Unibet
1.06
Bet365
1.06
Betfair
1.05
Newcastle over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
75.7%
@ 1.26+1.8%
Under
24.3%
@ 3.58-1.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.28
Pinnacle
1.28
Betano
1.28
Superbet
1.26
Unibet
1.25
Under
Pinnacle
3.74
Marathonbet
3.64
BetVictor
3.60
Unibet
3.60
Superbet
3.60
Newcastle over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
41.3%
@ 2.30+0.6%
Under
58.7%
@ 1.59-0.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.43
Bet365
2.38
1xBet
2.36
Marathonbet
2.33
Betano
2.27
Under
Marathonbet
1.61
Betano
1.60
Superbet
1.60
1xBet
1.60
Unibet
1.60
Newcastle over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
17.0%
@ 5.24-0.8%
Under
83.0%
@ 1.14+0.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
5.55
Betfair
5.50
Bet365
5.50
Marathonbet
5.45
BetVictor
5.25
Under
Betano
1.16
Superbet
1.15
Unibet
1.14
Bet365
1.14
1xBet
1.13
Newcastle over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
5.5%
@ 12.12-2.3%
Under
94.5%
@ 1.03+2.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
15.00
Superbet
12.00
Unibet
12.00
Betano
9.50
Under
Betano
1.04
Superbet
1.03
Bet365
1.03
Unibet
1.01
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Tottenham, so a minus line means Tottenham give that many goals of a start and Newcastle receive them. At -1, Tottenham must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Tottenham win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Tottenham)Actual: Newcastle
Tottenham -2
5.6%
@ 9.82-3.8%
Draw -2
10.3%
@ 6.67-3.6%
Newcastle +2
84.1%
@ 1.20+7.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
10Bet
17.00
Bet365
10.00
Betfair
8.50
Superbet
8.00
Marathonbet
7.90
Draw
10Bet
9.00
Bet365
6.50
Marathonbet
6.50
Superbet
6.20
Betfair
6.00
Away
Superbet
1.24
Unibet
1.22
Bet365
1.22
Marathonbet
1.21
Betfair
1.20
Handicap -1 (Tottenham)Actual: Newcastle
Tottenham -1
15.9%
@ 4.20-6.0%
Draw -1
18.4%
@ 4.17-3.6%
Newcastle +1
65.8%
@ 1.63+9.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
10Bet
6.00
Bet365
4.00
Superbet
3.90
Marathonbet
3.84
Betfair
3.75
Draw
10Bet
4.50
Bet365
4.33
Superbet
4.20
Marathonbet
4.15
Betfair
4.00
Away
Marathonbet
1.72
Superbet
1.68
Bet365
1.67
Betfair
1.67
Unibet
1.66
Handicap +1 (Tottenham)Actual: Newcastle
Tottenham +1
62.2%
@ 1.37-4.4%
Draw +1
19.5%
@ 4.88+0.9%
Newcastle -1
18.3%
@ 6.12+3.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
10Bet
1.40
Marathonbet
1.39
Superbet
1.38
Bet365
1.36
Unibet
1.34
Draw
Marathonbet
5.10
Superbet
5.10
Betfair
5.00
Bet365
5.00
Unibet
4.60
Away
Betfair
6.50
Marathonbet
6.40
Bet365
6.00
10Bet
6.00
Unibet
6.00
Handicap +2 (Tottenham)Actual: Draw
Tottenham +2
81.7%
@ 1.09-2.1%
Draw +2
11.5%
@ 9.00+1.3%
Newcastle -2
6.8%
@ 15.38+0.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.12
10Bet
1.10
Unibet
1.09
Betfair
1.07
Draw
Betfair
9.50
10Bet
9.00
Bet365
9.00
Unibet
8.50
Away
10Bet
19.00
Bet365
15.00
Betfair
15.00
Unibet
12.50
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Tottenham
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.90
0.67
0.80
0.40
1.00
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
1.50
0.50
1.50
-
-
vs Similar (25)
0.48
0.92
0.58
0.75
0.38
1.08
vs Weaker (3)
1.00
0.33
2.00
0.00
0.50
0.50
Clean sheet %
43% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Newcastle) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Newcastle
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.93
0.77
0.94
0.56
0.93
1.00
vs Stronger (10)
0.70
1.30
0.50
0.25
0.83
2.00
vs Similar (16)
0.81
0.56
1.00
0.70
0.50
0.33
vs Weaker (4)
2.00
0.25
1.50
0.50
2.50
0.00
Clean sheet %
50% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Tottenham) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
69.1%
@ 1.29-3.8%
Under 0.5
30.9%
@ 3.47+3.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.33
1xBet
1.31
Marathonbet
1.30
Bet365
1.30
Superbet
1.30
Under
Betfair
3.80
Superbet
3.55
BetVictor
3.50
Marathonbet
3.50
Unibet
3.45
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
32.9%
@ 2.37-6.7%
Under 1.5
67.1%
@ 1.56+6.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
2.50
Pinnacle
2.45
Betano
2.45
1xBet
2.42
William Hil
2.40
Under
Superbet
1.60
Pinnacle
1.57
Betfair
1.57
Marathonbet
1.57
Unibet
1.56
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
12.5%
@ 5.51-4.5%
Under 2.5
87.5%
@ 1.13+4.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
6.00
Bet365
6.00
1xBet
5.70
Marathonbet
5.55
Betfair
5.50
Under
Superbet
1.16
Betano
1.15
William Hil
1.14
Unibet
1.13
Bet365
1.12
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Tottenham over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
44.4%
@ 1.77-8.2%
Under
55.6%
@ 1.96+8.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.80
Pinnacle
1.79
1xBet
1.78
Superbet
1.76
Marathonbet
1.76
Under
Pinnacle
2.04
Unibet
1.98
Marathonbet
1.95
Superbet
1.95
Betano
1.93
Tottenham over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
10.7%
@ 4.88-8.3%
Under
89.3%
@ 1.14+8.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
5.25
Marathonbet
5.15
Superbet
4.70
Betano
4.70
Unibet
4.60
Under
Betano
1.17
Superbet
1.15
Unibet
1.14
Marathonbet
1.13
1xBet
1.12
Tottenham over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
1.6%
@ 12.12-6.1%
Under
98.4%
@ 1.02+6.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
14.00
Betano
10.25
Under
Betano
1.03
Superbet
1.01
Newcastle over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
44.7%
@ 2.04-1.0%
Under
55.3%
@ 1.71+1.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.11
Betano
2.07
1xBet
2.03
Marathonbet
2.02
Unibet
2.00
Under
Pinnacle
1.74
Superbet
1.73
Marathonbet
1.71
1xBet
1.70
Unibet
1.70
Newcastle over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
13.3%
@ 6.37-1.3%
Under
86.7%
@ 1.08+1.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
6.95
Marathonbet
6.90
Unibet
6.10
Betano
6.00
Superbet
5.90
Under
Betano
1.11
Superbet
1.10
Unibet
1.07
1xBet
1.07
Marathonbet
1.07
Newcastle over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
3.0%
@ 16.00-3.0%
Under
97.0%
@ 1.02+3.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
20.00
Betano
12.00
Under
Betano
1.02
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Tottenham
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.83
0.87
1.00
0.60
0.67
vs Stronger (2)
1.00
1.50
1.00
1.50
-
-
vs Similar (25)
0.60
0.80
0.67
0.92
0.54
0.69
vs Weaker (3)
1.67
0.67
3.00
1.00
1.00
0.50
Clean sheet %
37% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Newcastle) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Newcastle
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
1.07
0.88
1.25
0.50
0.86
vs Stronger (10)
0.30
1.30
0.50
1.75
0.17
1.00
vs Similar (16)
0.88
0.94
0.90
1.00
0.83
0.83
vs Weaker (4)
1.00
1.00
1.50
1.50
0.50
0.50
Clean sheet %
30% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (Tottenham) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
77.9%
@ 1.17-2.7%
Under 0.5
22.1%
@ 4.84+2.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
1.18
Superbet
1.18
Bet365
1.18
Betano
1.18
Marathonbet
1.15
Under
Marathonbet
5.10
1xBet
5.05
Unibet
5.00
Superbet
4.90
Betano
4.75
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
42.8%
@ 1.81-9.1%
Under 1.5
57.2%
@ 1.96+9.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.86
Superbet
1.85
Bet365
1.83
Marathonbet
1.83
William Hil
1.80
Under
Marathonbet
2.01
Betano
2.00
Unibet
2.00
1xBet
1.98
Superbet
1.97
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
18.1%
@ 3.52-8.5%
Under 2.5
81.9%
@ 1.28+8.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
3.75
Superbet
3.65
1xBet
3.58
William Hil
3.50
Marathonbet
3.50
Under
Betano
1.32
Superbet
1.29
Marathonbet
1.28
Unibet
1.28
1xBet
1.27
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Tottenham over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
49.8%
@ 1.53-11.0%
Under
50.2%
@ 2.37+11.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.54
1xBet
1.53
Betano
1.52
Under
Betano
2.42
1xBet
2.37
Superbet
2.32
Tottenham over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
14.9%
@ 3.49-11.7%
Under
85.1%
@ 1.26+11.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
3.55
Superbet
3.55
1xBet
3.50
Betano
3.35
Under
Betano
1.30
1xBet
1.26
Marathonbet
1.25
Superbet
1.25
Tottenham over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
3.1%
@ 8.97-7.3%
Under
96.9%
@ 1.04+7.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
9.80
Superbet
9.40
Betano
7.70
Under
Betano
1.06
Superbet
1.04
1xBet
1.01
Newcastle over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
56.7%
@ 1.71+2.4%
Under
43.3%
@ 2.03-2.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.73
Betano
1.70
Superbet
1.70
Marathonbet
1.70
Under
Betano
2.07
Marathonbet
2.03
Superbet
2.02
1xBet
2.00
Newcastle over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
17.9%
@ 4.50-2.7%
Under
82.1%
@ 1.17+2.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
4.75
1xBet
4.60
Superbet
4.40
Betano
4.25
Under
Betano
1.20
Superbet
1.17
1xBet
1.16
Marathonbet
1.15
Newcastle over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
4.1%
@ 11.38-4.2%
Under
95.9%
@ 1.02+4.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
13.00
Betano
9.75
Under
Betano
1.03
Superbet
1.02
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 7.5
99.3%
1.01
Superbet
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
+2.4%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 HT goals
98.4%
1.02
Betano
1.03
Superbet
1.01
-
-
-
+6.1%
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
97.8%
1.02
Betano
1.03
1xBet
1.02
Bet365
1.02
Superbet
1.02
Betfair
1.01
+3.6%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 HT goals
97.0%
1.02
Betano
1.02
-
-
-
-
+3.0%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 2H goals
96.9%
1.04
Betano
1.06
Superbet
1.04
1xBet
1.01
-
-
+7.3%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 2H goals
95.9%
1.02
Betano
1.03
Superbet
1.02
-
-
-
+4.2%
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
95.3%
1.05
Betano
1.08
Superbet
1.06
Unibet
1.06
Bet365
1.06
Betfair
1.05
+6.5%
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
94.5%
1.03
Betano
1.04
Superbet
1.03
Bet365
1.03
Unibet
1.01
-
+2.3%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
93.9%
1.05
Betano
1.09
Superbet
1.08
Unibet
1.07
Bet365
1.07
Betfair
1.05
+4.8%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 HT goals
89.3%
1.14
Betano
1.17
Superbet
1.15
Unibet
1.14
Marathonbet
1.13
1xBet
1.12
+8.3%
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
87.7%
1.19
10Bet
1.36
Betano
1.21
Bet365
1.20
Superbet
1.19
BetVictor
1.17
+8.3%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 HT goals
87.5%
1.13
Superbet
1.16
Betano
1.15
William Hil
1.14
Unibet
1.13
Bet365
1.12
+4.5%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 HT goals
86.7%
1.08
Betano
1.11
Superbet
1.10
Unibet
1.07
1xBet
1.07
Marathonbet
1.07
+1.3%
✓ Hit
Under 4.5
85.5%
1.19
Betano
1.22
Superbet
1.21
Unibet
1.21
Bet365
1.20
BetVictor
1.18
+6.7%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 2H goals
85.1%
1.26
Betano
1.30
1xBet
1.26
Marathonbet
1.25
Superbet
1.25
-
+11.7%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 goals
84.9%
1.25
Betano
1.28
Pinnacle
1.27
Marathonbet
1.26
Unibet
1.26
Superbet
1.25
+10.0%
✓ Hit
Away +2 handicap
84.1%
1.20
Superbet
1.24
Unibet
1.22
Bet365
1.22
Marathonbet
1.21
Betfair
1.20
+7.4%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
83.0%
1.14
Betano
1.16
Superbet
1.15
Unibet
1.14
Bet365
1.14
1xBet
1.13
+0.8%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 2H goals
82.1%
1.17
Betano
1.20
Superbet
1.17
1xBet
1.16
Marathonbet
1.15
-
+2.7%
✗ Miss
Under 2.5 2H goals
81.9%
1.28
Betano
1.32
Superbet
1.29
Marathonbet
1.28
Unibet
1.28
1xBet
1.27
+8.5%
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
81.7%
1.09
Bet365
1.12
10Bet
1.10
Unibet
1.09
Betfair
1.07
-
-2.1%
✗ Miss
Under 25.5 fouls
78.0%
1.43
1xBet
1.43
-
-
-
-
+14.4%
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 2H goals
77.9%
1.17
William Hil
1.18
Superbet
1.18
Bet365
1.18
Betano
1.18
Marathonbet
1.15
-2.7%
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
77.5%
1.22
Betano
1.24
Superbet
1.20
-
-
-
+1.8%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards
77.1%
1.32
Betano
1.38
Superbet
1.32
Unibet
1.27
-
-
+7.2%
✓ Hit
Away over 0.5 goals
75.7%
1.26
Bet365
1.28
Pinnacle
1.28
Betano
1.28
Superbet
1.26
Unibet
1.25
+1.8%
✓ Hit
Over 8.5 corners
74.9%
1.30
Superbet
1.35
Betfair
1.33
Betano
1.30
Unibet
1.30
1xBet
1.27
+4.5%
✓ Hit
Home over 0.5 goals
73.7%
1.17
Pinnacle
1.20
Betano
1.19
Bet365
1.18
Superbet
1.17
Unibet
1.15
-6.1%
✗ Miss
Home or Away
72.1%
1.27
1xBet
1.31
William Hil
1.30
Marathonbet
1.30
Superbet
1.30
Bet365
1.28
-2.1%
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Tottenham
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Dominic Solanke33%
Mikey Moore33%
Rodrigo Bentancur0%
Jan Paul van Hecke0%
Destiny Udogie0%
Antonín Kinský0%
Mathys Tel0%
Archie Gray0%
Mateus Fernandes0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Rodrigo Bentancur0%
Dominic Solanke0%
Jan Paul van Hecke0%
Destiny Udogie0%
Antonín Kinský0%
Mathys Tel0%
Archie Gray0%
Mateus Fernandes0%
Mikey Moore0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Rodrigo Bentancur33%
Archie Gray33%
Mateus Fernandes33%
Mikey Moore33%
Dominic Solanke0%
Jan Paul van Hecke0%
Destiny Udogie0%
Antonín Kinský0%
Mathys Tel0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Mathys Tel33%
Mikey Moore33%
Rodrigo Bentancur0%
Dominic Solanke0%
Jan Paul van Hecke0%
Destiny Udogie0%
Antonín Kinský0%
Archie Gray0%
Mateus Fernandes0%
Newcastle
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Anthony Elanga67%
Joe Willock33%
Harvey Barnes33%
Yoane Wissa33%
Amar Dedić0%
Jacob Murphy0%
Jacob Ramsey0%
Sven Botman0%
Malick Thiaw0%
Lewis Hall0%
Lewis Miley0%
Sean Steur0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Jacob Ramsey67%
Jacob Murphy33%
Yoane Wissa33%
Sven Botman33%
Lewis Miley33%
Sean Steur33%
Joe Willock0%
Amar Dedić0%
Harvey Barnes0%
Anthony Elanga0%
Malick Thiaw0%
Lewis Hall0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Amar Dedić67%
Yoane Wissa33%
Malick Thiaw33%
Joe Willock0%
Harvey Barnes0%
Jacob Murphy0%
Jacob Ramsey0%
Sven Botman0%
Anthony Elanga0%
Lewis Hall0%
Lewis Miley0%
Sean Steur0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Joe Willock33%
Harvey Barnes33%
Yoane Wissa33%
Amar Dedić0%
Jacob Murphy0%
Jacob Ramsey0%
Sven Botman0%
Anthony Elanga0%
Malick Thiaw0%
Lewis Hall0%
Lewis Miley0%
Sean Steur0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CHE (39)
€1407m
ARS (29)
€1406m
MC (27)
€1326m
LIV (29)
€980m
MU (30)
€929m
TOT (36)
€920m
BHA (30)
€620m
BOU (31)
€573m
NEW (25)
€568m
BRE (32)
€565m
NFO (28)
€551m
AVL (27)
€536m
CRY (29)
€505m
EVE (24)
€459m
LEE (27)
€427m
SUN (30)
€392m
FUL (21)
€329m
IPS (31)
€280m
COV (27)
€237m
HUL (27)
€105m
Tottenham's squad is €353m more valuable than Newcastle's (€920m vs €568m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MC (9)
€635m
CHE (13)
€614m
ARS (13)
€608m
LIV (9)
€518m
MU (11)
€432m
BOU (11)
€285m
NFO (9)
€263m
TOT (12)
€250m
NEW (7)
€234m
CRY (11)
€229m
BRE (10)
€228m
AVL (10)
€220m
BHA (9)
€190m
FUL (9)
€178m
EVE (7)
€174m
LEE (11)
€166m
SUN (9)
€157m
IPS (11)
€130m
COV (8)
€85m
HUL (7)
€22m
Tottenham's attack is €16m more valuable than Newcastle's (€250m vs €234m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ARS (4)
€290m
TOT (7)
€282m
CHE (6)
€278m
MU (7)
€236m
LIV (6)
€201m
BHA (7)
€180m
EVE (7)
€162m
MC (3)
€160m
AVL (6)
€160m
BRE (7)
€128m
NEW (6)
€124m
SUN (6)
€110m
BOU (6)
€106m
LEE (5)
€98m
CRY (5)
€93m
IPS (7)
€66m
COV (6)
€52m
NFO (4)
€52m
HUL (8)
€31m
FUL (3)
€28m
Tottenham's midfield is €158m more valuable than Newcastle's (€282m vs €124m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MC (15)
€531m
CHE (20)
€514m
ARS (12)
€508m
TOT (17)
€388m
MU (12)
€261m
LIV (14)
€260m
BHA (14)
€249m
NFO (15)
€236m
NEW (12)
€210m
BRE (15)
€209m
CRY (13)
€182m
BOU (14)
€182m
LEE (11)
€163m
AVL (11)
€156m
SUN (15)
€125m
EVE (10)
€123m
FUL (9)
€123m
COV (13)
€99m
IPS (13)
€85m
HUL (12)
€52m
Tottenham's defence is €178m more valuable than Newcastle's (€388m vs €210m).
England: Premier League 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full England: Premier League stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
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