Toulouse face Lille with the model favouring an away win, a 53% chance against Toulouse’s 20% and a 27% draw. The expected total is 2.6 goals, with the most likely scoreline 1-1 at 12.8%. Toulouse’s home form shows they average 0.8 goals scored and concede 2.0 against stronger opponents, while Lille’s away form is strong, scoring 2.0 and conceding only 0.5 against weaker teams. The suggested picks include Under 7.5 (99.5%), Home under 2.5 HT goals (98.6%, edge 3%), Home under 3.5 goals (98.6%, edge 4%), Under 6.5 (98.3%, edge 2%), Home under 2.5 2H goals (97.3%, edge 4%), Away under 2.5 HT goals (96.5%, edge 3%), Away under 2.5 2H goals (95.3%, edge 4%) and Under 5.5 (95.1%, edge 2%). Both teams are coming off 2-2 draws, adding a cautious tone to the encounter.
Results analysis
The win for Lille extends their winning run, while Toulouse’s recent defeat signals a dip in form. The final score of 0-1 delivered an away victory, matching the model’s prediction and confirming the pre-match favourite with a 56% probability. The model’s selection for an away win was correct. Every suggested pick also proved accurate: Under 7.5 (99.5%), Home under 2.5 HT goals (98.6%), Home under 3.5 goals (98.6%), Under 6.5 (98.3%), Home under 2.5 2H goals (97.3%), Away under 2.5 HT goals (96.5%), Away under 2.5 2H goals (95.3%) and Under 5.5 (95.1%) all hit. The outcome aligned with the model’s high-confidence predictions across the board.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Toulouse win✗ Miss
18.6%
Avg Implied 24.5% · @ 3.89
Edge
-5.9%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
4.32
Marathonbet
4.30
1xBet
4.26
BetVictor
4.20
Betfair
4.10
Draw✗ Miss
25.9%
Avg Implied 27.2% · @ 3.50
Edge
-1.3%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
3.70
Bet365
3.70
Betano
3.70
Marathonbet
3.64
Pinnacle
3.64
Lille win✓ Hit
55.5%
Avg Implied 48.3% · @ 1.97
Edge
+7.2%
Best 5 market prices
Dafabet
2.24
Superbet
2.22
SBO
2.16
Unibet
1.96
1xBet
1.96
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Toulouse
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.5
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
2.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.30
1.43
0.93
1.14
1.62
1.69
vs Stronger (8)
1.12
2.12
0.80
2.00
1.67
2.33
vs Similar (21)
1.38
1.24
1.00
0.75
1.62
1.54
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
23% (-4pp vs league)
This opponent (Lille) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Lille
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.10
1.03
0.86
1.21
1.31
0.88
vs Stronger (2)
1.00
2.50
2.00
2.00
0.00
3.00
vs Similar (16)
0.88
1.00
0.75
1.25
1.00
0.75
vs Weaker (12)
1.42
0.83
0.80
1.00
1.86
0.71
Clean sheet %
40% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (Toulouse) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
75.2%
@ 1.27+1.1%
Under 1.5
24.8%
@ 3.64-1.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.33
BetVictor
1.29
Betano
1.28
10Bet
1.28
Unibet
1.28
Under
Bet365
4.00
Pinnacle
3.99
Betfair
3.80
Betano
3.75
1xBet
3.62
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
49.2%
@ 1.89-1.2%
Under 2.5
50.8%
@ 1.92+1.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
SBO
2.06
Superbet
2.05
Unibet
1.93
1xBet
1.91
Pinnacle
1.88
Under
Pinnacle
2.03
1xBet
2.03
Bet365
2.00
Betano
2.00
Marathonbet
1.97
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
27.3%
@ 3.12-2.9%
Under 3.5
72.7%
@ 1.35+2.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
3.55
Unibet
3.30
10Bet
3.25
Betfair
3.20
Pinnacle
3.14
Under
Bet365
1.40
Betano
1.40
Pinnacle
1.39
Marathonbet
1.36
BetVictor
1.36
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
50.4%
@ 1.72-3.9%
No
49.6%
@ 2.04+3.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Superbet
1.80
10Bet
1.75
Unibet
1.74
William Hil
1.73
1xBet
1.70
No
Betfair
2.15
Betano
2.07
BetVictor
2.05
Bet365
2.05
1xBet
2.05
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.4%@ 6.27+5.2%
0-1 ✓
11.2%@ 7.04+4.8%
0-2
10.6%@ 8.99+5.6%
1-2
9.7%@ 7.82+4.0%
0-0
8.2%@ 9.85+3.7%
0-3
6.1%@ 15.84+3.3%
1-3
5.6%@ 14.20+2.4%
1-0
5.4%@ 10.92+1.2%
Toulouse goals ↓
Lille goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
8.2%
11%
11%
6.1%
2.7%
1
5.4%
12%
9.7%
5.6%
2.4%
2
3.0%
5.1%
4.4%
2.6%
1.1%
3
0.9%
1.6%
1.4%
0.8%
0.3%
4
0.2%
0.4%
0.3%
0.2%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Toulouse goals (down), columns = Lille goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Paris Saint Germain
2.24
Lens
2.06
Lille
1.79
Lyon
1.76
Rennes
1.74
Marseille
1.74
Monaco
1.59
Strasbourg
1.56
Toulouse
1.33
Lorient
1.32
Paris FC
1.29
Stade Brestois 29
1.15
Angers
1.06
Estac Troyes
1.04
Le Havre
1.03
Nice
1.00
Auxerre
1.00
Le Mans
0.83
Toulouse is 0.46 points worse than Lille in terms of average points per game (1.33 vs 1.79).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Paris Saint Germain
2.18
Lens
1.94
Marseille
1.85
Monaco
1.76
Rennes
1.74
Strasbourg
1.71
Lyon
1.56
Lille
1.53
Toulouse
1.42
Lorient
1.41
Paris FC
1.38
Stade Brestois 29
1.26
Nice
1.14
Estac Troyes
1.11
Auxerre
1.00
Le Havre
0.94
Le Mans
0.88
Angers
0.85
Toulouse is 0.11 goals worse than Lille in terms of goals scored per game (1.42 vs 1.53).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Paris Saint Germain
0.85
Lens
1.03
Lille
1.09
Lyon
1.18
Le Havre
1.29
Auxerre
1.29
Marseille
1.32
Strasbourg
1.38
Toulouse
1.39
Angers
1.41
Rennes
1.47
Paris FC
1.47
Lorient
1.50
Monaco
1.59
Stade Brestois 29
1.62
Nice
1.69
Estac Troyes
1.85
Le Mans
2.32
Toulouse is 0.31 goals worse than Lille in terms of goals conceded per game (1.39 vs 1.09).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Paris Saint Germain
69%
Marseille
57%
Lille
56%
Lyon
55%
Monaco
54%
Strasbourg
54%
Rennes
54%
Lens
51%
Paris FC
50%
Le Havre
47%
Nice
47%
Lorient
45%
Auxerre
44%
Stade Brestois 29
43%
Toulouse
42%
Angers
42%
Toulouse is 13.6 percentage points worse than Lille in terms of average possession (42% vs 56%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Toulouse
For 3.0 · Against 6.0 · Total 9.0
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.6 · Against 1.2 · Total 3.8
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 14.2 · Against 10.0 · Total 24.2
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Lille
For 4.0 · Against 4.8 · Total 8.8
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.4 · Against 2.3 · Total 4.7
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 9.8 · Against 11.8 · Total 21.6
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Toulouse
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.3
9.3
9.3
4.3
4.3
4.4
25.4
26.0
25.0
vs Stronger (14)
9.2
8.7
9.7
4.2
4.0
4.4
24.3
25.0
23.6
vs Similar (35)
9.3
9.5
9.2
4.4
4.5
4.3
25.9
26.3
25.5
vs Weaker (1)
10.0
10.0
-
2.0
2.0
-
28.0
28.0
-
% over line
49%
57%
42%
66%
61%
70%
82%
78%
85%
% under line
51%
43%
58%
34%
39%
30%
18%
22%
15%
This opponent (Lille) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Lille
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.5
9.8
9.2
4.4
3.8
5.0
24.0
23.6
24.3
vs Stronger (3)
6.3
6.5
6.0
2.0
2.5
1.0
20.3
20.5
20.0
vs Similar (27)
9.4
9.2
9.5
4.7
4.0
5.4
24.0
24.2
23.8
vs Weaker (20)
10.2
11.6
9.1
4.4
3.9
4.8
24.4
23.4
25.2
% over line
46%
48%
44%
64%
52%
76%
64%
60%
68%
% under line
54%
52%
56%
36%
48%
24%
36%
40%
32%
This opponent (Toulouse) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Nice
10.5
Rennes
10.5
Lens
10.3
Auxerre
10.0
Lyon
9.9
Stade Brestois 29
9.7
Monaco
9.6
Lille
9.5
Paris FC
9.4
Paris Saint Germain
9.3
Le Mans
9.3
Toulouse
9.3
Angers
9.2
Marseille
9.1
Le Havre
9.0
Strasbourg
8.9
Lorient
8.9
Estac Troyes
8.4
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Auxerre
4.8
Lyon
4.6
Marseille
4.5
Lens
4.5
Le Mans
4.4
Lille
4.4
Toulouse
4.4
Monaco
4.3
Rennes
4.3
Strasbourg
4.2
Le Havre
4.0
Nice
4.0
Lorient
4.0
Estac Troyes
3.9
Paris FC
3.9
Stade Brestois 29
3.7
Angers
3.4
Paris Saint Germain
3.2
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Le Mans
27.1
Estac Troyes
27.0
Le Havre
26.8
Auxerre
25.7
Toulouse
25.6
Lyon
25.1
Stade Brestois 29
25.0
Lens
24.8
Rennes
24.0
Lille
24.0
Monaco
23.5
Strasbourg
23.5
Nice
23.4
Marseille
23.4
Lorient
22.8
Angers
22.7
Paris FC
22.3
Paris Saint Germain
19.2
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
46.4%
@ 1.90-2.9%
Under 9.5
53.6%
@ 1.85+2.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
2.00
Betano
1.98
Pinnacle
1.94
Superbet
1.92
10Bet
1.91
Under
1xBet
1.92
Pinnacle
1.89
Unibet
1.87
Marathonbet
1.87
Betano
1.85
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
61.8%
@ 1.41-3.8%
Under 3.5
38.2%
@ 2.69+3.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
1.42
Superbet
1.42
Pinnacle
1.40
Betano
1.40
Under
Pinnacle
2.84
Betano
2.80
Unibet
2.60
Superbet
2.52
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
68.8%
Under 21.5
31.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Toulouse or Draw✗ Miss
45.9%
Avg Implied 51.4% · @ 1.83
Edge
-5.5%
19%
26%
56%
covers Toulouse + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Marathonbet
1.95
Betano
1.95
1xBet
1.94
10Bet
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
Toulouse or Lille✓ Hit
73.5%
Avg Implied 73.4% · @ 1.28
Edge
+0.1%
19%
26%
56%
covers Toulouse + Lille
Best 5 market prices
Superbet
1.35
Marathonbet
1.32
1xBet
1.32
Unibet
1.30
William Hil
1.30
Draw or Lille✓ Hit
80.6%
Avg Implied 75.2% · @ 1.25
Edge
+5.4%
19%
26%
56%
covers Draw + Lille
Best 5 market prices
Superbet
1.33
Betano
1.26
1xBet
1.26
SBO
1.26
Unibet
1.26
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Toulouse over/under 0.5Actual: Under
Over
60.1%
@ 1.43-5.1%
Under
39.9%
@ 2.67+5.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.45
Pinnacle
1.45
BetVictor
1.44
Bet365
1.44
Marathonbet
1.43
Under
Pinnacle
2.84
Superbet
2.77
Betfair
2.75
Unibet
2.65
Betano
2.65
Toulouse over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
23.4%
@ 3.13-6.4%
Under
76.6%
@ 1.33+6.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
3.29
Bet365
3.25
BetVictor
3.20
Betfair
3.20
1xBet
3.18
Under
Superbet
1.37
Betano
1.36
1xBet
1.35
Marathonbet
1.35
Pinnacle
1.34
Toulouse over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
6.6%
@ 7.74-5.4%
Under
93.4%
@ 1.06+5.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
9.00
Marathonbet
8.60
1xBet
8.50
Betfair
8.00
Unibet
7.50
Under
Betano
1.08
Bet365
1.07
Superbet
1.07
BetVictor
1.07
10Bet
1.07
Toulouse over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
1.4%
@ 19.25-3.6%
Under
98.6%
@ 1.01+3.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
26.00
Superbet
20.00
Betano
11.75
Under
Betano
1.02
Superbet
1.01
Bet365
1.01
Lille over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
81.3%
@ 1.19+2.7%
Under
18.7%
@ 4.35-2.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
1.25
Superbet
1.25
Pinnacle
1.21
Bet365
1.18
Betano
1.18
Under
Betfair
5.20
BetVictor
4.60
Betano
4.55
Bet365
4.50
Pinnacle
4.44
Lille over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
50.0%
@ 1.92+1.1%
Under
50.0%
@ 1.83-1.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
2.20
Unibet
1.95
Bet365
1.91
1xBet
1.91
10Bet
1.91
Under
Pinnacle
1.98
1xBet
1.91
Marathonbet
1.91
Betano
1.90
Betfair
1.85
Lille over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
23.7%
@ 3.92-0.1%
Under
76.3%
@ 1.23+0.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
4.80
Unibet
4.00
Bet365
4.00
Betfair
4.00
10Bet
3.85
Under
Pinnacle
1.28
Betano
1.26
Marathonbet
1.26
1xBet
1.25
BetVictor
1.22
Lille over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
9.0%
@ 8.86-1.5%
Under
91.0%
@ 1.04+1.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
11.00
Bet365
10.00
Betfair
9.00
Unibet
8.50
1xBet
8.20
Under
Betano
1.07
Bet365
1.06
Marathonbet
1.04
1xBet
1.04
Superbet
1.03
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Toulouse, so a minus line means Toulouse give that many goals of a start and Lille receive them. At -1, Toulouse must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Toulouse win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Toulouse)Actual: Lille
Toulouse -2
1.8%
@ 20.80-2.7%
Draw -2
5.1%
@ 10.78-3.4%
Lille +2
93.1%
@ 1.06+6.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
26.00
Bet365
23.00
10Bet
19.00
Unibet
18.00
Superbet
18.00
Draw
Bet365
13.00
Betfair
13.00
Unibet
10.00
Superbet
9.40
10Bet
8.50
Away
Superbet
1.09
Bet365
1.06
Unibet
1.05
10Bet
1.05
Betfair
1.04
Handicap -1 (Toulouse)Actual: Lille
Toulouse -1
6.9%
@ 9.02-3.2%
Draw -1
12.5%
@ 5.51-4.0%
Lille +1
80.6%
@ 1.24+7.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
10.00
Bet365
10.00
Marathonbet
9.10
Unibet
8.00
10Bet
8.00
Draw
Bet365
6.00
Marathonbet
5.80
Betfair
5.50
10Bet
5.25
Unibet
5.00
Away
Marathonbet
1.25
Bet365
1.25
Unibet
1.25
10Bet
1.25
Betfair
1.20
Handicap +1 (Toulouse)Actual: Draw
Toulouse +1
45.9%
@ 1.82-3.8%
Draw +1
23.8%
@ 3.65-1.0%
Lille -1
30.3%
@ 3.54+4.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Marathonbet
1.95
10Bet
1.85
Betfair
1.83
Bet365
1.83
Unibet
1.79
Draw
Superbet
3.90
Bet365
3.75
Marathonbet
3.64
10Bet
3.55
Unibet
3.55
Away
Superbet
4.20
Bet365
3.50
Betfair
3.50
Unibet
3.45
10Bet
3.35
Handicap +2 (Toulouse)Actual: Toulouse
Toulouse +2
69.7%
@ 1.26-2.1%
Draw +2
17.0%
@ 5.56+0.8%
Lille -2
13.3%
@ 7.58+1.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Marathonbet
1.29
Bet365
1.28
10Bet
1.28
Unibet
1.25
Superbet
1.22
Draw
Superbet
6.30
Bet365
5.50
Betfair
5.50
Marathonbet
5.50
Unibet
5.30
Away
Superbet
9.20
Bet365
8.00
Betfair
8.00
Unibet
7.50
10Bet
6.50
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Toulouse
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.63
0.36
0.43
1.00
0.81
vs Stronger (8)
0.50
0.88
0.20
0.80
1.00
1.00
vs Similar (21)
0.76
0.57
0.38
0.25
1.00
0.77
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
53% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (Lille) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Lille
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.40
0.37
0.29
0.50
0.50
0.25
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
0.50
1.00
0.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (16)
0.31
0.44
0.25
0.62
0.38
0.25
vs Weaker (12)
0.50
0.25
0.20
0.40
0.71
0.14
Clean sheet %
70% (+42pp vs league)
This opponent (Toulouse) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
67.8%
@ 1.38-0.5%
Under 0.5
32.2%
@ 2.96+0.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.43
Betano
1.42
Marathonbet
1.40
1xBet
1.40
BetVictor
1.38
Under
Betfair
3.20
Pinnacle
3.19
William Hil
3.10
Bet365
3.00
Marathonbet
2.93
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
33.1%
@ 2.73-1.3%
Under 1.5
66.9%
@ 1.43+1.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
2.95
Unibet
2.80
Pinnacle
2.78
Bet365
2.75
Betano
2.75
Under
Pinnacle
1.46
Betano
1.45
BetVictor
1.45
1xBet
1.45
Marathonbet
1.45
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
11.4%
@ 6.83-2.2%
Under 2.5
88.6%
@ 1.08+2.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
7.70
Betfair
7.00
William Hil
7.00
Bet365
7.00
BetVictor
7.00
Under
William Hil
1.11
Betano
1.11
Bet365
1.10
Superbet
1.09
1xBet
1.08
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Toulouse over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
40.0%
@ 2.44+1.8%
Under
60.0%
@ 1.51-1.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.55
Marathonbet
2.46
10Bet
2.45
Unibet
2.43
Betano
2.42
Under
Superbet
1.53
1xBet
1.52
Pinnacle
1.52
Betano
1.52
10Bet
1.50
Toulouse over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
8.1%
@ 8.46-2.8%
Under
91.9%
@ 1.04+2.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
9.50
1xBet
8.90
Unibet
8.50
Superbet
7.90
Betano
7.50
Under
Betano
1.07
Superbet
1.05
Marathonbet
1.02
1xBet
1.02
Unibet
1.02
Toulouse over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
1.4%
@ 22.25-2.9%
Under
98.6%
@ 1.01+2.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
31.00
Betano
13.50
Under
Betano
1.01
Lille over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
50.0%
@ 1.82-1.2%
Under
50.0%
@ 1.91+1.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.95
Unibet
1.85
Betano
1.82
Pinnacle
1.81
Marathonbet
1.79
Under
Pinnacle
2.02
1xBet
1.97
10Bet
1.95
Betano
1.93
Marathonbet
1.92
Lille over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
13.4%
@ 5.05-4.9%
Under
86.6%
@ 1.13+4.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
5.70
Unibet
5.20
Marathonbet
5.05
1xBet
4.80
Betano
4.80
Under
Betano
1.16
10Bet
1.15
1xBet
1.14
Marathonbet
1.13
Unibet
1.12
Lille over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
3.5%
@ 14.88-3.0%
Under
96.5%
@ 1.02+3.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
19.00
Betano
10.75
Under
Betano
1.03
Superbet
1.01
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Toulouse
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.80
0.57
0.71
0.62
0.88
vs Stronger (8)
0.62
1.25
0.60
1.20
0.67
1.33
vs Similar (21)
0.62
0.67
0.62
0.50
0.62
0.77
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Lille) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Lille
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.67
0.57
0.71
0.81
0.62
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
2.00
1.00
2.00
0.00
2.00
vs Similar (16)
0.56
0.56
0.50
0.62
0.62
0.50
vs Weaker (12)
0.92
0.58
0.60
0.60
1.14
0.57
Clean sheet %
57% (+29pp vs league)
This opponent (Toulouse) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
78.6%
@ 1.23+2.1%
Under 0.5
21.4%
@ 3.99-2.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.28
William Hil
1.25
10Bet
1.22
Bet365
1.22
Betano
1.22
Under
Marathonbet
4.20
1xBet
4.20
Betano
4.10
Bet365
4.00
Unibet
3.95
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
47.1%
@ 2.07+1.6%
Under 1.5
52.9%
@ 1.73-1.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
2.27
William Hil
2.15
Marathonbet
2.05
1xBet
2.05
10Bet
2.05
Under
Marathonbet
1.80
Betano
1.80
1xBet
1.80
Bet365
1.73
William Hil
1.70
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
18.3%
@ 4.38-3.2%
Under 2.5
81.7%
@ 1.19+3.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
5.00
William Hil
4.75
Bet365
4.33
10Bet
4.33
Unibet
4.30
Under
Betano
1.24
Marathonbet
1.21
1xBet
1.21
Bet365
1.20
William Hil
1.18
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Toulouse over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
46.1%
@ 2.01-0.2%
Under
53.9%
@ 1.73+0.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
2.04
Marathonbet
2.02
Betano
2.00
Superbet
1.97
Under
Betano
1.75
Superbet
1.75
1xBet
1.71
Marathonbet
1.71
Toulouse over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
16.9%
@ 6.04+1.6%
Under
83.1%
@ 1.09-1.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
6.60
1xBet
6.40
Superbet
5.85
10Bet
5.75
Betano
5.60
Under
Betano
1.12
10Bet
1.10
Superbet
1.10
Marathonbet
1.08
1xBet
1.07
Toulouse over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
2.7%
@ 15.25-3.6%
Under
97.3%
@ 1.02+3.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
19.00
Betano
11.50
Under
Betano
1.02
Lille over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
58.4%
@ 1.63+1.1%
Under
41.6%
@ 2.19-1.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
1.70
Marathonbet
1.70
Superbet
1.69
1xBet
1.53
Betano
1.52
Under
Betano
2.45
1xBet
2.38
10Bet
2.05
Superbet
2.05
Marathonbet
2.03
Lille over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
21.0%
@ 3.67-4.3%
Under
79.0%
@ 1.24+4.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
4.35
10Bet
3.75
Marathonbet
3.48
1xBet
3.40
Betano
3.35
Under
Betano
1.29
Marathonbet
1.26
1xBet
1.26
10Bet
1.22
Superbet
1.18
Lille over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
4.7%
@ 10.20-4.4%
Under
95.3%
@ 1.03+4.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
13.00
1xBet
9.70
Betano
7.90
Under
Betano
1.06
Superbet
1.02
1xBet
1.01
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 7.5
99.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 HT goals
98.6%
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
-
+2.9%
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
98.6%
1.01
Betano
1.02
Superbet
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
+3.6%
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
98.3%
1.01
Betano
1.02
1xBet
1.01
Superbet
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
+2.2%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 2H goals
97.3%
1.02
Betano
1.02
-
-
-
-
+3.6%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 HT goals
96.5%
1.02
Betano
1.03
Superbet
1.01
-
-
-
+3.0%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 2H goals
95.3%
1.03
Betano
1.06
Superbet
1.02
1xBet
1.01
-
-
+4.4%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
95.1%
1.03
Betano
1.06
Bet365
1.05
Superbet
1.03
1xBet
1.01
Unibet
1.01
+3.1%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 goals
93.4%
1.06
Betano
1.08
Bet365
1.07
Superbet
1.07
BetVictor
1.07
10Bet
1.07
+5.4%
✓ Hit
Away +2 handicap
93.1%
1.06
Superbet
1.09
Bet365
1.06
Unibet
1.05
10Bet
1.05
Betfair
1.04
+6.1%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 HT goals
91.9%
1.04
Betano
1.07
Superbet
1.05
Marathonbet
1.02
1xBet
1.02
Unibet
1.02
+2.8%
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
91.0%
1.04
Betano
1.07
Bet365
1.06
Marathonbet
1.04
1xBet
1.04
Superbet
1.03
+1.5%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 HT goals
88.6%
1.08
William Hil
1.11
Betano
1.11
Bet365
1.10
Superbet
1.09
1xBet
1.08
+2.2%
✓ Hit
Under 4.5
87.8%
1.11
Betano
1.15
Bet365
1.14
10Bet
1.11
BetVictor
1.10
Unibet
1.10
+3.3%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 HT goals
86.6%
1.13
Betano
1.16
10Bet
1.15
1xBet
1.14
Marathonbet
1.13
Unibet
1.12
+4.9%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 2H goals
83.1%
1.09
Betano
1.12
10Bet
1.10
Superbet
1.10
Marathonbet
1.08
1xBet
1.07
-1.6%
✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
82.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 2H goals
81.7%
1.19
Betano
1.24
Marathonbet
1.21
1xBet
1.21
Bet365
1.20
William Hil
1.18
+3.2%
✓ Hit
Away over 0.5 goals
81.3%
1.19
Marathonbet
1.25
Superbet
1.25
Pinnacle
1.21
Bet365
1.18
Betano
1.18
+2.7%
✓ Hit
Draw or Away
80.6%
1.25
Superbet
1.33
Betano
1.26
1xBet
1.26
SBO
1.26
Unibet
1.26
+5.4%
✓ Hit
Away +1 handicap
80.6%
1.24
Marathonbet
1.25
Bet365
1.25
Unibet
1.25
10Bet
1.25
Betfair
1.20
+7.2%
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
79.9%
1.17
Betano
1.18
Superbet
1.15
-
-
-
+1.1%
✗ Miss
Away under 1.5 2H goals
79.0%
1.24
Betano
1.29
Marathonbet
1.26
1xBet
1.26
10Bet
1.22
Superbet
1.18
+4.3%
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 2H goals
78.6%
1.23
Superbet
1.28
William Hil
1.25
10Bet
1.22
Bet365
1.22
Betano
1.22
+2.1%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 goals
76.6%
1.33
Superbet
1.37
Betano
1.36
1xBet
1.35
Marathonbet
1.35
Pinnacle
1.34
+6.4%
✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners
76.3%
1.31
Superbet
1.34
Unibet
1.33
1xBet
1.31
Marathonbet
1.28
Betano
1.28
+6.1%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
76.3%
1.23
Pinnacle
1.28
Betano
1.26
Marathonbet
1.26
1xBet
1.25
BetVictor
1.22
+0.1%
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
75.2%
1.27
Superbet
1.33
BetVictor
1.29
Betano
1.28
10Bet
1.28
Unibet
1.28
+1.1%
✗ Miss
Under 5.5 cards
74.1%
1.46
Betano
1.52
Pinnacle
1.48
Unibet
1.43
Superbet
1.39
-
+10.6%
✓ Hit
Home or Away
73.5%
1.28
Superbet
1.35
Marathonbet
1.32
1xBet
1.32
Unibet
1.30
William Hil
1.30
+0.1%
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
72.7%
1.35
Bet365
1.40
Betano
1.40
Pinnacle
1.39
Marathonbet
1.36
BetVictor
1.36
+2.9%
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Toulouse
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
C. Tapé33%
R. Nicolaisen0%
N. Schmidt0%
M. McKenzie0%
Cristian Cásseres Jr.0%
Guillaume Restes0%
S. Hidalgo0%
T. Jørgensen0%
Ismail Diallo0%
Julián Vignolo0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
N. Schmidt67%
R. Nicolaisen33%
Cristian Cásseres Jr.33%
S. Hidalgo33%
M. McKenzie0%
Guillaume Restes0%
T. Jørgensen0%
Ismail Diallo0%
Julián Vignolo0%
C. Tapé0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Cristian Cásseres Jr.33%
R. Nicolaisen0%
N. Schmidt0%
M. McKenzie0%
Guillaume Restes0%
S. Hidalgo0%
T. Jørgensen0%
Ismail Diallo0%
Julián Vignolo0%
C. Tapé0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
S. Hidalgo67%
Cristian Cásseres Jr.33%
Julián Vignolo33%
R. Nicolaisen0%
N. Schmidt0%
M. McKenzie0%
Guillaume Restes0%
T. Jørgensen0%
Ismail Diallo0%
C. Tapé0%
Lille
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Olivier Giroud33%
H. Haraldsson33%
Tiago Santos33%
N. Bentaleb0%
B. Özer0%
R. Perraud0%
C. Verdonk0%
Alexsandro Ribeiro0%
N. Ngoy0%
N. Mukau0%
Ethan Mbappé0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
R. Perraud67%
H. Haraldsson33%
N. Bentaleb0%
B. Özer0%
Olivier Giroud0%
C. Verdonk0%
Alexsandro Ribeiro0%
N. Ngoy0%
N. Mukau0%
Tiago Santos0%
Ethan Mbappé0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
N. Bentaleb33%
Olivier Giroud33%
B. Özer0%
R. Perraud0%
C. Verdonk0%
H. Haraldsson0%
Alexsandro Ribeiro0%
N. Ngoy0%
N. Mukau0%
Tiago Santos0%
Ethan Mbappé0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
H. Haraldsson33%
N. Bentaleb0%
B. Özer0%
Olivier Giroud0%
R. Perraud0%
C. Verdonk0%
Alexsandro Ribeiro0%
N. Ngoy0%
N. Mukau0%
Tiago Santos0%
Ethan Mbappé0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PSG (26)
€1477m
MON (26)
€326m
LIL (27)
€312m
STR (32)
€304m
LYO (32)
€293m
REN (26)
€241m
MAR (22)
€225m
LEN (27)
€187m
PF (37)
€176m
NIC (28)
€152m
TOU (24)
€115m
LOR (24)
€87m
AUX (29)
€84m
ANG (23)
€73m
SB2 (20)
€64m
LH (25)
€55m
ET (23)
€36m
LM (26)
€24m
Toulouse's squad is €197m less valuable than Lille's (€115m vs €312m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PSG (10)
€638m
MON (9)
€148m
LIL (13)
€133m
LYO (9)
€122m
STR (13)
€112m
MAR (9)
€91m
REN (8)
€87m
NIC (8)
€62m
PF (13)
€59m
LEN (8)
€52m
ANG (9)
€30m
TOU (7)
€30m
SB2 (6)
€25m
AUX (11)
€23m
LOR (8)
€20m
LH (10)
€9m
ET (7)
€7m
LM (6)
€4m
Toulouse's attack is €104m less valuable than Lille's (€30m vs €133m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PSG (5)
€430m
LIL (4)
€102m
MON (5)
€84m
LYO (8)
€82m
MAR (5)
€68m
STR (6)
€56m
PF (7)
€54m
REN (5)
€44m
TOU (7)
€39m
LOR (5)
€32m
NIC (9)
€31m
AUX (5)
€28m
LEN (5)
€24m
LH (5)
€23m
SB2 (6)
€20m
ANG (3)
€11m
ET (6)
€11m
LM (8)
€5m
Toulouse's midfield is €64m less valuable than Lille's (€39m vs €102m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PSG (11)
€409m
STR (13)
€136m
LEN (14)
€112m
REN (13)
€109m
MON (12)
€93m
LYO (15)
€89m
LIL (10)
€76m
MAR (8)
€66m
PF (17)
€62m
NIC (11)
€60m
TOU (10)
€46m
LOR (11)
€35m
AUX (13)
€33m
ANG (11)
€32m
LH (10)
€23m
SB2 (8)
€19m
ET (10)
€17m
LM (12)
€15m
Toulouse's defence is €30m less valuable than Lille's (€46m vs €76m).
France: Ligue 1 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full France: Ligue 1 stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Monaco
Paris FC
Lyon
Rennes
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