Lyon is expected to win this match, with a likely low-scoring draw. Toulouse's recent form is a 2-game winning run, but they struggle at home, scoring an average of 1 goal and conceding 2 against stronger opponents. Lyon, on the other hand, tends to score and concede fewer goals when playing away against weaker opponents, scoring 1.11 goals and conceding 1.
The model predicts a 50% chance of an away win, a 25% chance of a draw, and a 25% chance of a home win. The expected total number of goals is 3. The most likely score is 1-1, with a probability of 11.8%.
The model's selections include Over 1.5, with an 81.4% probability and a 5% edge, Home or Away with a 73.8% probability, Draw or Away with a 72.5% probability and a 3% edge, and Over 21.5 fouls with a 70.8% probability. The probabilities for the model's selections are: Over 1.5 (81.4%), Home or Away (73.8%), Draw or Away (72.5%), and Over 21.5 fouls (70.8%). The percentages for the match outcome are: Home win (25%), Draw (25%), and Away win (50%).
Results analysis
The model’s prediction proved accurate as Lyon secured a 0-2 away win, extending their recent winning streak while Toulouse slipped after a defeat. The pre-match favourite was the away win at 49 % probability, and the model’s call was correct. The most likely scoreline of 1-1, 1-2 or 0-1 did not materialise, but the total of 2 goals was achieved. Every suggested pick hit: Under 7.5 at 99.1 %, Home under 2.5 HT goals at 98.4 %, Away under 2.5 HT goals at 97.5 %, Under 6.5 at 97.5 %, Home under 2.5 2H goals at 96.8 %, Home under 3.5 goals at 96.3 %, Away under 2.5 2H goals at 94.6 %, and Under 5.5 at 93.3 %. The model’s selections performed consistently across the match.
Advertisement
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Toulouse win✗ Miss
24.8%
Avg Implied 39.3% · @ 2.41
Edge
-14.5%
Best 5 market prices
10Bet
2.84
Superbet
2.45
1xBet
2.43
Dafabet
2.42
Pinnacle
2.41
Draw✗ Miss
26.1%
Avg Implied 27.7% · @ 3.43
Edge
-1.5%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
3.66
Marathonbet
3.60
10Bet
3.55
Pinnacle
3.50
Dafabet
3.45
Lyon win✓ Hit
49.1%
Avg Implied 33.0% · @ 2.87
Edge
+16.0%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
3.05
1xBet
3.02
BetVictor
3.00
Marathonbet
2.98
Dafabet
2.95
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Toulouse
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.7
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
2.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.30
1.40
1.07
1.14
1.50
1.62
vs Stronger (8)
1.12
2.00
1.00
2.00
1.25
2.00
vs Similar (21)
1.38
1.24
1.11
0.89
1.58
1.50
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
23% (-4pp vs league)
This opponent (Lyon) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Lyon
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.1
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.73
1.17
1.94
1.12
1.50
1.21
vs Stronger (1)
2.00
1.00
-
-
2.00
1.00
vs Similar (16)
1.81
1.50
2.00
1.44
1.57
1.57
vs Weaker (13)
1.62
0.77
1.86
0.71
1.33
0.83
Clean sheet %
37% (+9pp vs league)
This opponent (Toulouse) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.9 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (24%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
79.3%
@ 1.27+4.9%
Under 1.5
20.7%
@ 3.68-4.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.30
BetVictor
1.29
888Sport
1.29
Bet365
1.28
Superbet
1.28
Under
Pinnacle
3.96
10Bet
3.95
Unibet
3.85
Betfair
3.80
Bet365
3.75
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
54.8%
@ 1.87+3.8%
Under 2.5
45.2%
@ 1.95-3.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.93
SBO
1.93
Betano
1.91
Bet365
1.91
Pinnacle
1.90
Under
10Bet
2.05
Pinnacle
2.01
1xBet
2.01
Unibet
1.98
Marathonbet
1.95
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
32.5%
@ 3.10+2.1%
Under 3.5
67.5%
@ 1.35-2.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
3.25
Betano
3.20
Bet365
3.20
Superbet
3.20
888Sport
3.20
Under
10Bet
1.40
Pinnacle
1.39
Unibet
1.38
Betano
1.37
Superbet
1.36
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
57.5%
@ 1.65+1.1%
No
42.5%
@ 2.14-1.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Superbet
1.70
Betano
1.67
William Hil
1.67
Bet365
1.67
888Sport
1.67
No
10Bet
2.20
Betfair
2.20
Unibet
2.18
William Hil
2.15
888Sport
2.15
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.4%@ 6.12+4.9%
1-2
9.6%@ 9.53+4.8%
0-1
8.5%@ 9.08+3.5%
0-2 ✓
8.3%@ 13.77+5.0%
0-0
6.8%@ 10.69+2.5%
2-1
6.5%@ 8.61+1.2%
2-2
5.6%@ 11.85+1.8%
1-3
5.5%@ 21.50+3.4%
Toulouse goals ↓
Lyon goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
6.8%
8.5%
8.3%
4.7%
2.0%
1
5.4%
12%
9.6%
5.5%
2.3%
2
3.8%
6.5%
5.6%
3.2%
1.4%
3
1.5%
2.5%
2.2%
1.2%
0.5%
4
0.4%
0.7%
0.6%
0.4%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Toulouse goals (down), columns = Lyon goals (across).
Advertisement
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Paris Saint Germain
2.24
Lens
2.06
Lille
1.79
Lyon
1.76
Marseille
1.74
Rennes
1.74
Monaco
1.59
Strasbourg
1.56
Toulouse
1.33
Lorient
1.32
Paris FC
1.29
Stade Brestois 29
1.15
Angers
1.06
Estac Troyes
1.04
Le Havre
1.03
Auxerre
1.00
Nice
1.00
Le Mans
0.83
Toulouse is 0.43 points worse than Lyon in terms of average points per game (1.33 vs 1.76).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Paris Saint Germain
2.18
Lens
1.94
Marseille
1.85
Monaco
1.76
Rennes
1.74
Strasbourg
1.71
Lyon
1.56
Lille
1.53
Toulouse
1.42
Lorient
1.41
Paris FC
1.38
Stade Brestois 29
1.26
Nice
1.14
Estac Troyes
1.11
Auxerre
1.00
Le Havre
0.94
Le Mans
0.88
Angers
0.85
Toulouse is 0.13 goals worse than Lyon in terms of goals scored per game (1.42 vs 1.56).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Paris Saint Germain
0.85
Lens
1.03
Lille
1.09
Lyon
1.18
Le Havre
1.29
Auxerre
1.29
Marseille
1.32
Strasbourg
1.38
Toulouse
1.39
Angers
1.41
Rennes
1.47
Paris FC
1.47
Lorient
1.50
Monaco
1.59
Stade Brestois 29
1.62
Nice
1.69
Estac Troyes
1.85
Le Mans
2.32
Toulouse is 0.22 goals worse than Lyon in terms of goals conceded per game (1.39 vs 1.18).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Paris Saint Germain
69%
Marseille
57%
Lille
56%
Lyon
55%
Monaco
54%
Strasbourg
54%
Rennes
54%
Lens
51%
Paris FC
50%
Le Havre
47%
Nice
47%
Lorient
45%
Auxerre
44%
Stade Brestois 29
43%
Toulouse
42%
Angers
42%
Toulouse is 12.4 percentage points worse than Lyon in terms of average possession (42% vs 55%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Toulouse
For 3.0 · Against 5.5 · Total 8.5
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.8 · Against 1.2 · Total 4.0
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 14.2 · Against 9.5 · Total 23.7
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Lyon
For 7.3 · Against 5.5 · Total 12.8
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.1 · Against 3.1 · Total 4.2
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.8 · Against 13.6 · Total 25.4
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Toulouse
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.3
9.2
9.5
4.4
4.3
4.4
25.4
26.5
24.5
vs Stronger (14)
9.1
8.4
9.7
4.4
4.3
4.4
25.1
26.7
23.6
vs Similar (35)
9.4
9.5
9.4
4.5
4.5
4.5
25.4
26.3
24.8
vs Weaker (1)
10.0
10.0
-
2.0
2.0
-
28.0
28.0
-
% over line
49%
52%
46%
68%
65%
70%
84%
83%
85%
% under line
51%
48%
54%
32%
35%
30%
16%
17%
15%
This opponent (Lyon) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Lyon
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.8
10.2
9.5
4.7
4.2
5.3
25.4
25.4
25.4
vs Stronger (2)
14.0
10.0
18.0
7.5
9.0
6.0
18.0
18.0
18.0
vs Similar (25)
9.4
10.7
8.2
4.7
4.0
5.3
26.2
26.4
26.0
vs Weaker (23)
10.0
9.7
10.4
4.5
3.9
5.3
25.2
25.0
25.4
% over line
40%
46%
33%
66%
62%
71%
78%
81%
75%
% under line
60%
54%
67%
34%
38%
29%
22%
19%
25%
This opponent (Toulouse) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Nice
10.6
Rennes
10.5
Lens
10.2
Stade Brestois 29
9.8
Lyon
9.8
Auxerre
9.8
Lille
9.7
Monaco
9.5
Paris FC
9.5
Toulouse
9.3
Paris Saint Germain
9.3
Le Mans
9.1
Le Havre
9.0
Strasbourg
9.0
Marseille
9.0
Angers
8.9
Lorient
8.8
Estac Troyes
8.5
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Auxerre
4.7
Lyon
4.7
Marseille
4.5
Le Mans
4.5
Toulouse
4.5
Lens
4.4
Lille
4.3
Monaco
4.3
Rennes
4.3
Strasbourg
4.2
Nice
4.1
Le Havre
4.1
Estac Troyes
4.1
Lorient
4.1
Paris FC
4.0
Stade Brestois 29
3.7
Angers
3.4
Paris Saint Germain
3.1
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Estac Troyes
27.5
Le Mans
27.3
Le Havre
26.9
Auxerre
25.8
Lyon
25.4
Toulouse
25.4
Lens
25.0
Stade Brestois 29
24.7
Rennes
24.1
Lille
23.9
Monaco
23.8
Nice
23.8
Strasbourg
23.6
Marseille
23.3
Lorient
23.1
Paris FC
22.6
Angers
22.5
Paris Saint Germain
19.2
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
0.0%
Under 9.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.88
Betano
1.87
1xBet
1.82
Marathonbet
1.79
Superbet
1.78
Under
Unibet
1.97
Superbet
1.97
Pinnacle
1.95
10Bet
1.95
Betano
1.95
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
0.0%
Under 3.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.44
Unibet
1.41
Pinnacle
1.37
Superbet
1.35
Under
Pinnacle
2.96
Superbet
2.87
Betano
2.65
Unibet
2.63
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Under
Over 21.5
0.0%
Under 21.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.29
Under
1xBet
3.10
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Toulouse or Draw✗ Miss
55.8%
Avg Implied 66.5% · @ 1.42
Edge
-10.7%
25%
26%
49%
covers Toulouse + Draw
Best 5 market prices
10Bet
1.60
1xBet
1.44
Marathonbet
1.43
Superbet
1.43
Unibet
1.42
Toulouse or Lyon✓ Hit
72.9%
Avg Implied 72.7% · @ 1.30
Edge
+0.2%
25%
26%
49%
covers Toulouse + Lyon
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
1.33
Superbet
1.33
Marathonbet
1.32
Betano
1.31
Unibet
1.30
Draw or Lyon✓ Hit
71.3%
Avg Implied 60.8% · @ 1.55
Edge
+10.5%
25%
26%
49%
covers Draw + Lyon
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
1.63
Marathonbet
1.62
Betano
1.60
SBO
1.58
Superbet
1.58
Advertisement
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Toulouse over/under 0.5Actual: Under
Over
71.1%
@ 1.24-3.9%
Under
28.9%
@ 3.71+3.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
1.28
Betano
1.26
Superbet
1.26
888Sport
1.25
Pinnacle
1.25
Under
Pinnacle
4.10
Betfair
4.00
BetVictor
3.80
Bet365
3.75
Unibet
3.70
Toulouse over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
35.2%
@ 2.22-7.0%
Under
64.8%
@ 1.62+7.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
2.35
Pinnacle
2.25
1xBet
2.22
Superbet
2.22
Marathonbet
2.22
Under
Pinnacle
1.68
1xBet
1.67
Marathonbet
1.67
BetVictor
1.62
Betano
1.62
Toulouse over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
12.9%
@ 4.95-5.9%
Under
87.1%
@ 1.15+5.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
5.50
10Bet
5.25
888Sport
5.00
Bet365
5.00
Marathonbet
4.95
Under
Betano
1.18
Bet365
1.17
Superbet
1.16
Marathonbet
1.16
1xBet
1.16
Toulouse over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
3.7%
@ 11.74-4.4%
Under
96.3%
@ 1.03+4.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
888Sport
13.00
Bet365
13.00
Superbet
12.00
Marathonbet
11.75
1xBet
11.70
Under
Betano
1.04
Bet365
1.04
Superbet
1.03
888Sport
1.03
Lyon over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
79.5%
@ 1.29+7.5%
Under
20.5%
@ 3.33-7.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.33
Pinnacle
1.32
Superbet
1.32
Bet365
1.30
BetVictor
1.30
Under
10Bet
3.95
Pinnacle
3.43
Bet365
3.40
Unibet
3.35
Betfair
3.30
Lyon over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
47.0%
@ 2.48+9.2%
Under
53.0%
@ 1.51-9.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.65
BetVictor
2.55
Betfair
2.55
Marathonbet
2.54
1xBet
2.54
Under
10Bet
1.70
Pinnacle
1.51
Marathonbet
1.51
1xBet
1.51
Bet365
1.50
Lyon over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
21.2%
@ 5.76+5.0%
Under
78.8%
@ 1.12-5.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
7.00
Bet365
6.50
1xBet
6.20
Marathonbet
6.20
BetVictor
6.00
Under
Pinnacle
1.20
10Bet
1.18
Betano
1.12
Superbet
1.12
888Sport
1.11
Lyon over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
7.7%
@ 12.94+0.3%
Under
92.3%
@ 1.02-0.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
888Sport
17.00
Bet365
17.00
Superbet
15.00
Marathonbet
12.50
1xBet
12.50
Under
Betfair
1.03
Betano
1.03
888Sport
1.03
Superbet
1.02
Bet365
1.02
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Toulouse, so a minus line means Toulouse give that many goals of a start and Lyon receive them. At -1, Toulouse must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Toulouse win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Toulouse)Actual: Lyon
Toulouse -2
4.1%
@ 10.08-4.7%
Draw -2
8.4%
@ 6.45-5.4%
Lyon +2
87.5%
@ 1.15+10.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
10Bet
13.00
Betfair
12.00
Bet365
10.00
Superbet
10.00
Unibet
9.50
Draw
Betfair
7.00
10Bet
7.00
Bet365
7.00
Superbet
6.80
Unibet
6.50
Away
Superbet
1.19
Bet365
1.18
Unibet
1.16
Marathonbet
1.15
Betfair
1.13
Handicap -1 (Toulouse)Actual: Lyon
Toulouse -1
12.5%
@ 4.72-6.6%
Draw -1
16.2%
@ 4.13-5.6%
Lyon +1
71.3%
@ 1.53+12.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
10Bet
5.50
Bet365
4.75
Superbet
4.65
Unibet
4.50
Betfair
4.50
Draw
10Bet
4.50
Bet365
4.33
Superbet
4.15
Betfair
4.00
Marathonbet
3.92
Away
Marathonbet
1.62
Superbet
1.57
Unibet
1.54
Bet365
1.53
Betfair
1.53
Handicap +1 (Toulouse)Actual: Lyon
Toulouse +1
55.8%
@ 1.43-7.9%
Draw +1
21.0%
@ 4.49+0.7%
Lyon -1
23.1%
@ 5.72+7.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
10Bet
1.60
Marathonbet
1.43
Superbet
1.42
Unibet
1.41
Betfair
1.36
Draw
Bet365
5.00
Superbet
4.70
Marathonbet
4.55
Betfair
4.50
Unibet
4.25
Away
Betfair
6.50
Bet365
6.50
Marathonbet
5.85
Superbet
5.75
Unibet
5.50
Handicap +2 (Toulouse)Actual: Draw
Toulouse +2
76.9%
@ 1.12-3.2%
Draw +2
13.7%
@ 7.34+1.5%
Lyon -2
9.5%
@ 11.58+1.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
10Bet
1.18
Superbet
1.15
Marathonbet
1.11
Unibet
1.11
Bet365
1.10
Draw
Bet365
9.00
Betfair
9.00
Unibet
7.50
Superbet
7.50
10Bet
6.25
Away
Betfair
15.00
Bet365
15.00
Superbet
12.00
Unibet
12.00
10Bet
9.00
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Toulouse
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.63
0.36
0.43
0.94
0.81
vs Stronger (8)
0.50
1.00
0.25
1.00
0.75
1.00
vs Similar (21)
0.71
0.52
0.33
0.22
1.00
0.75
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
53% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (Lyon) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Lyon
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
0.47
0.62
0.50
1.00
0.43
vs Stronger (1)
2.00
0.00
-
-
2.00
0.00
vs Similar (16)
0.88
0.62
0.78
0.78
1.00
0.43
vs Weaker (13)
0.62
0.31
0.43
0.14
0.83
0.50
Clean sheet %
63% (+36pp vs league)
This opponent (Toulouse) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
72.4%
@ 1.36+3.6%
Under 0.5
27.6%
@ 3.01-3.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.42
Superbet
1.39
1xBet
1.38
Marathonbet
1.38
BetVictor
1.37
Under
Pinnacle
3.21
10Bet
3.10
William Hil
3.10
1xBet
3.02
Marathonbet
3.02
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
34.8%
@ 2.69-0.1%
Under 1.5
65.2%
@ 1.44+0.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.79
Marathonbet
2.77
1xBet
2.77
Superbet
2.77
Betano
2.77
Under
10Bet
1.48
Pinnacle
1.46
Betano
1.45
Superbet
1.45
Marathonbet
1.44
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
12.2%
@ 6.70-1.7%
Under 2.5
87.8%
@ 1.09+1.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
7.50
William Hil
7.00
Bet365
7.00
Betfair
7.00
Superbet
6.90
Under
Betano
1.11
10Bet
1.11
Superbet
1.10
William Hil
1.10
Bet365
1.10
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Toulouse over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
45.3%
@ 1.98-1.9%
Under
54.7%
@ 1.77+1.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
2.05
Pinnacle
2.01
Betano
1.98
Superbet
1.97
Marathonbet
1.94
Under
Pinnacle
1.82
Betano
1.78
1xBet
1.77
Marathonbet
1.77
Unibet
1.75
Toulouse over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
12.0%
@ 5.98-3.4%
Under
88.0%
@ 1.09+3.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
6.25
Marathonbet
6.20
1xBet
6.20
Superbet
5.85
Unibet
5.80
Under
Betano
1.12
Superbet
1.10
Marathonbet
1.09
1xBet
1.09
Unibet
1.08
Toulouse over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
1.6%
@ 15.25-4.6%
Under
98.4%
@ 1.02+4.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
19.00
Betano
11.50
Under
Betano
1.02
Lyon over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
48.8%
@ 2.09+4.2%
Under
51.2%
@ 1.68-4.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.18
Betano
2.15
1xBet
2.12
Superbet
2.12
Marathonbet
2.12
Under
10Bet
1.85
Pinnacle
1.69
Betano
1.65
1xBet
1.64
Marathonbet
1.64
Lyon over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
12.4%
@ 6.61-1.7%
Under
87.6%
@ 1.08+1.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
7.40
Marathonbet
7.40
Superbet
6.70
Unibet
6.50
Betano
6.40
Under
10Bet
1.12
Betano
1.09
Superbet
1.08
Unibet
1.06
Marathonbet
1.06
Lyon over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
2.5%
@ 17.75-2.9%
Under
97.5%
@ 1.01+2.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
23.00
Betano
12.50
Under
Betano
1.01
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Toulouse
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.77
0.71
0.71
0.56
0.81
vs Stronger (8)
0.62
1.00
0.75
1.00
0.50
1.00
vs Similar (21)
0.67
0.71
0.78
0.67
0.58
0.75
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Lyon) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Lyon
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.93
0.70
1.31
0.62
0.50
0.79
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
1.00
-
-
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (16)
0.94
0.88
1.22
0.67
0.57
1.14
vs Weaker (13)
1.00
0.46
1.43
0.57
0.50
0.33
Clean sheet %
50% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Toulouse) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
78.0%
Under 0.5
22.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
47.4%
Under 1.5
52.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
18.3%
Under 2.5
81.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Toulouse over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
50.1%
Under
49.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Toulouse over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
15.5%
Under
84.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Toulouse over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
3.2%
Under
96.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lyon over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
54.3%
Under
45.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lyon over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
19.7%
Under
80.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lyon over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
5.4%
Under
94.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Advertisement
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 7.5
99.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 HT goals
98.4%
1.02
Betano
1.02
-
-
-
-
+4.6%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 HT goals
97.5%
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
-
+2.9%
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
97.5%
1.01
Betano
1.02
Bet365
1.01
1xBet
1.01
Superbet
1.01
-
+1.5%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 2H goals
96.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
96.3%
1.03
Betano
1.04
Bet365
1.04
Superbet
1.03
888Sport
1.03
-
+4.4%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 2H goals
94.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
93.3%
1.03
Betano
1.05
Superbet
1.04
Bet365
1.04
888Sport
1.04
BetVictor
1.02
+1.5%
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
92.3%
1.02
Betfair
1.03
Betano
1.03
888Sport
1.03
Superbet
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-0.3%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 HT goals
88.0%
1.09
Betano
1.12
Superbet
1.10
Marathonbet
1.09
1xBet
1.09
Unibet
1.08
+3.4%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 HT goals
87.8%
1.09
Betano
1.11
10Bet
1.11
Superbet
1.10
William Hil
1.10
Bet365
1.10
+1.7%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 HT goals
87.6%
1.08
10Bet
1.12
Betano
1.09
Superbet
1.08
Unibet
1.06
Marathonbet
1.06
+1.7%
✓ Hit
Away +2 handicap
87.5%
1.15
Superbet
1.19
Bet365
1.18
Unibet
1.16
Marathonbet
1.15
Betfair
1.13
+10.2%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 goals
87.1%
1.15
Betano
1.18
Bet365
1.17
Superbet
1.16
Marathonbet
1.16
1xBet
1.16
+5.9%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 2H goals
84.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 4.5
84.4%
1.11
10Bet
1.15
Betano
1.14
888Sport
1.13
Superbet
1.13
Bet365
1.12
+0.1%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 2H goals
81.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 2H goals
80.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Away over 0.5 goals
79.5%
1.29
Betano
1.33
Pinnacle
1.32
Superbet
1.32
Bet365
1.30
BetVictor
1.30
+7.5%
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
79.3%
1.27
Betano
1.30
BetVictor
1.29
888Sport
1.29
Bet365
1.28
Superbet
1.28
+4.9%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
78.8%
1.12
Pinnacle
1.20
10Bet
1.18
Betano
1.12
Superbet
1.12
888Sport
1.11
-5.0%
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 2H goals
78.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
76.9%
1.12
10Bet
1.18
Superbet
1.15
Marathonbet
1.11
Unibet
1.11
Bet365
1.10
-3.2%
✗ Miss
Home or Away
72.9%
1.30
1xBet
1.33
Superbet
1.33
Marathonbet
1.32
Betano
1.31
Unibet
1.30
+0.2%
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 HT goals
72.4%
1.36
Betano
1.42
Superbet
1.39
1xBet
1.38
Marathonbet
1.38
BetVictor
1.37
+3.6%
✗ Miss
Draw or Away
71.3%
1.55
1xBet
1.63
Marathonbet
1.62
Betano
1.60
SBO
1.58
Superbet
1.58
+10.5%
✓ Hit
Away +1 handicap
71.3%
1.53
Marathonbet
1.62
Superbet
1.57
Unibet
1.54
Bet365
1.53
Betfair
1.53
+12.3%
✓ Hit
Home over 0.5 goals
71.1%
1.24
10Bet
1.28
Betano
1.26
Superbet
1.26
888Sport
1.25
Pinnacle
1.25
-3.9%
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Toulouse
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
C. Tapé33%
R. Nicolaisen0%
N. Schmidt0%
M. McKenzie0%
Cristian Cásseres Jr.0%
Guillaume Restes0%
S. Hidalgo0%
T. Jørgensen0%
Ismail Diallo0%
Julián Vignolo0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
N. Schmidt67%
R. Nicolaisen33%
Cristian Cásseres Jr.33%
S. Hidalgo33%
M. McKenzie0%
Guillaume Restes0%
T. Jørgensen0%
Ismail Diallo0%
Julián Vignolo0%
C. Tapé0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Cristian Cásseres Jr.33%
R. Nicolaisen0%
N. Schmidt0%
M. McKenzie0%
Guillaume Restes0%
S. Hidalgo0%
T. Jørgensen0%
Ismail Diallo0%
Julián Vignolo0%
C. Tapé0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
S. Hidalgo67%
Cristian Cásseres Jr.33%
Julián Vignolo33%
R. Nicolaisen0%
N. Schmidt0%
M. McKenzie0%
Guillaume Restes0%
T. Jørgensen0%
Ismail Diallo0%
C. Tapé0%
Lyon
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Loïs Openda40%
Noah Nartey33%
Ainsley Maitland-Niles25%
Ernest Nuamah20%
Tyler Morton17%
Malick Fofana17%
Clinton Mata0%
Corentin Tolisso0%
Abner Vinícius0%
Moussa Niakhaté0%
Dominik Greif0%
Pavel Šulc0%
Tanner Tessmann0%
Mads Bidstrup0%
Ruben Kluivert0%
Zachary Athekame0%
Kaïl Boudache0%
Mohamed Ouédraogo0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Noah Nartey33%
Ainsley Maitland-Niles25%
Loïs Openda20%
Abner Vinícius20%
Clinton Mata0%
Corentin Tolisso0%
Moussa Niakhaté0%
Dominik Greif0%
Pavel Šulc0%
Tanner Tessmann0%
Mads Bidstrup0%
Tyler Morton0%
Ruben Kluivert0%
Ernest Nuamah0%
Malick Fofana0%
Zachary Athekame0%
Kaïl Boudache0%
Mohamed Ouédraogo0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Corentin Tolisso33%
Pavel Šulc33%
Zachary Athekame33%
Ainsley Maitland-Niles25%
Clinton Mata0%
Loïs Openda0%
Abner Vinícius0%
Moussa Niakhaté0%
Dominik Greif0%
Tanner Tessmann0%
Mads Bidstrup0%
Tyler Morton0%
Ruben Kluivert0%
Ernest Nuamah0%
Malick Fofana0%
Noah Nartey0%
Kaïl Boudache0%
Mohamed Ouédraogo0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Loïs Openda40%
Corentin Tolisso33%
Malick Fofana33%
Kaïl Boudache20%
Tyler Morton17%
Clinton Mata0%
Ainsley Maitland-Niles0%
Abner Vinícius0%
Moussa Niakhaté0%
Dominik Greif0%
Pavel Šulc0%
Tanner Tessmann0%
Mads Bidstrup0%
Ruben Kluivert0%
Ernest Nuamah0%
Noah Nartey0%
Zachary Athekame0%
Mohamed Ouédraogo0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
Advertisement
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PSG (26)
€1477m
MON (26)
€326m
LIL (27)
€312m
STR (32)
€304m
LYO (32)
€293m
REN (26)
€241m
MAR (22)
€225m
LEN (27)
€187m
PF (37)
€176m
NIC (28)
€152m
TOU (24)
€115m
LOR (24)
€87m
AUX (29)
€84m
ANG (23)
€73m
SB2 (20)
€64m
LH (25)
€55m
ET (23)
€36m
LM (26)
€24m
Toulouse's squad is €179m less valuable than Lyon's (€115m vs €293m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PSG (10)
€638m
MON (9)
€148m
LIL (13)
€133m
LYO (9)
€122m
STR (13)
€112m
MAR (9)
€91m
REN (8)
€87m
NIC (8)
€62m
PF (13)
€59m
LEN (8)
€52m
ANG (9)
€30m
TOU (7)
€30m
SB2 (6)
€25m
AUX (11)
€23m
LOR (8)
€20m
LH (10)
€9m
ET (7)
€7m
LM (6)
€4m
Toulouse's attack is €92m less valuable than Lyon's (€30m vs €122m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PSG (5)
€430m
LIL (4)
€102m
MON (5)
€84m
LYO (8)
€82m
MAR (5)
€68m
STR (6)
€56m
PF (7)
€54m
REN (5)
€44m
TOU (7)
€39m
LOR (5)
€32m
NIC (9)
€31m
AUX (5)
€28m
LEN (5)
€24m
LH (5)
€23m
SB2 (6)
€20m
ANG (3)
€11m
ET (6)
€11m
LM (8)
€5m
Toulouse's midfield is €43m less valuable than Lyon's (€39m vs €82m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PSG (11)
€409m
STR (13)
€136m
LEN (14)
€112m
REN (13)
€109m
MON (12)
€93m
LYO (15)
€89m
LIL (10)
€76m
MAR (8)
€66m
PF (17)
€62m
NIC (11)
€60m
TOU (10)
€46m
LOR (11)
€35m
AUX (13)
€33m
ANG (11)
€32m
LH (10)
€23m
SB2 (8)
€19m
ET (10)
€17m
LM (12)
€15m
Toulouse's defence is €43m less valuable than Lyon's (€46m vs €89m).
France: Ligue 1 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full France: Ligue 1 stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Lille
Monaco
Paris FC
Rennes
Estac Troyes
Lens
Marseille
Angers
Strasbourg
Stade Brestois 29
Paris Saint Germain
Le Mans
Le Havre
Lorient
Nice
Auxerre