This opponent (Newport County) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Newport County
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.03
0.93
0.93
0.73
1.13
1.13
vs Stronger (3)
1.00
0.67
1.00
0.67
-
-
vs Similar (24)
0.88
1.04
0.70
0.90
1.00
1.14
vs Weaker (3)
2.33
0.33
2.00
0.00
3.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
40% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Tranmere) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 1.8 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
55.9%
Under 1.5
44.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
27.7%
@ 2.66-7.7%
Under 2.5
72.3%
@ 1.46+7.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
11.3%
Under 3.5
88.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
35.7%
No
64.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
0-0
17.3%
1-0
16.5%
1-1
14.1%
0-1 ✓
10.3%
2-0
9.9%
2-1
7.1%
1-2
4.6%
0-2
4.2%
Tranmere goals ↓
Newport County goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
17%
10%
4.2%
1.0%
0.2%
1
17%
14%
4.6%
1.1%
0.2%
2
9.9%
7.1%
2.6%
0.6%
0.1%
3
3.7%
2.6%
0.9%
0.2%
0.0%
4
1.0%
0.7%
0.3%
0.1%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Tranmere goals (down), columns = Newport County goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Exeter
1.83
Forest Green
1.83
Bristol Rvs
1.74
Northampton
1.74
Port Vale
1.70
Swindon
1.67
Mansfield
1.67
Sutton
1.65
Tranmere
1.63
Salford
1.52
Newport County
1.50
Crawley Town
1.33
Leyton Orient
1.26
Bradford
1.26
Colchester
1.20
Walsall
1.17
Hartlepool
1.17
Carlisle
1.15
Rochdale
1.15
Harrogate
1.15
Stevenage
1.02
Barrow
0.96
Oldham
0.83
Scunthorpe
0.57
Tranmere is 0.13 points better than Newport County in terms of average points per game (1.63 vs 1.50).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Swindon
1.67
Forest Green
1.63
Bristol Rvs
1.54
Sutton
1.50
Newport County
1.46
Port Vale
1.46
Mansfield
1.46
Exeter
1.41
Harrogate
1.39
Leyton Orient
1.35
Salford
1.30
Northampton
1.30
Crawley Town
1.22
Tranmere
1.15
Bradford
1.15
Rochdale
1.11
Colchester
1.04
Walsall
1.02
Oldham
1.00
Stevenage
0.98
Hartlepool
0.96
Barrow
0.96
Carlisle
0.85
Scunthorpe
0.63
Tranmere is 0.30 goals worse than Newport County in terms of goals scored per game (1.15 vs 1.46).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Northampton
0.83
Tranmere
0.87
Exeter
0.89
Forest Green
0.96
Port Vale
1.00
Salford
1.00
Leyton Orient
1.02
Bristol Rvs
1.07
Mansfield
1.13
Sutton
1.15
Swindon
1.17
Bradford
1.20
Barrow
1.24
Newport County
1.26
Rochdale
1.28
Walsall
1.30
Colchester
1.30
Carlisle
1.35
Hartlepool
1.39
Crawley Town
1.43
Stevenage
1.48
Oldham
1.63
Harrogate
1.63
Scunthorpe
1.96
Tranmere is 0.39 goals better than Newport County in terms of goals conceded per game (0.87 vs 1.26).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Swindon
60%
Forest Green
54%
Rochdale
54%
Leyton Orient
53%
Exeter
53%
Salford
51%
Newport County
51%
Mansfield
51%
Tranmere
51%
Hartlepool
51%
Harrogate
51%
Barrow
51%
Port Vale
50%
Walsall
49%
Bradford
49%
Oldham
48%
Northampton
48%
Crawley Town
47%
Colchester
47%
Carlisle
46%
Stevenage
46%
Scunthorpe
46%
Sutton
44%
Tranmere is 0.4 percentage points worse than Newport County in terms of average possession (51% vs 51%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Tranmere
For 6.3 · Against 4.3 · Total 10.6
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.0 · Against 1.4 · Total 3.4
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 13.5 · Against 12.7 · Total 26.2
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Newport County
For 4.2 · Against 3.9 · Total 8.1
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.7 · Against 2.0 · Total 3.7
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.1 · Against 12.5 · Total 22.6
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Tranmere
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (49)
9.7
9.8
9.7
2.8
2.7
2.8
25.5
25.2
25.8
vs Stronger (4)
10.0
10.5
9.5
1.8
1.5
2.0
20.8
16.5
25.0
vs Similar (37)
9.3
9.6
9.1
3.0
2.9
3.0
26.8
26.1
27.4
vs Weaker (8)
11.5
10.5
12.5
2.4
2.2
2.5
21.9
25.5
18.2
% over line
51%
50%
52%
35%
33%
36%
73%
75%
72%
% under line
49%
50%
48%
65%
67%
64%
27%
25%
28%
This opponent (Newport County) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Newport County
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (48)
8.8
9.1
8.4
3.2
3.2
3.2
24.6
23.2
25.9
vs Stronger (6)
9.3
11.3
7.3
4.0
3.7
4.3
25.5
24.7
26.3
vs Similar (36)
8.7
9.3
8.1
3.2
3.2
3.2
24.4
22.8
25.9
vs Weaker (6)
8.7
6.0
11.3
2.3
3.0
1.7
24.7
24.0
25.3
% over line
44%
48%
40%
38%
35%
40%
69%
61%
76%
% under line
56%
52%
60%
62%
65%
60%
31%
39%
24%
This opponent (Tranmere) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Exeter
11.0
Oldham
10.8
Carlisle
10.7
Bristol Rvs
10.1
Colchester
9.9
Crawley Town
9.9
Leyton Orient
9.9
Rochdale
9.9
Port Vale
9.7
Tranmere
9.7
Harrogate
9.7
Walsall
9.7
Scunthorpe
9.7
Northampton
9.6
Mansfield
9.5
Swindon
9.4
Forest Green
9.4
Stevenage
9.3
Bradford
9.2
Barrow
9.2
Salford
8.9
Newport County
8.8
Sutton
7.5
Hartlepool
5.0
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Barrow
4.0
Sutton
3.7
Bristol Rvs
3.6
Leyton Orient
3.5
Northampton
3.5
Salford
3.3
Forest Green
3.3
Oldham
3.3
Colchester
3.3
Walsall
3.2
Newport County
3.2
Swindon
3.2
Carlisle
3.1
Mansfield
3.0
Hartlepool
2.9
Bradford
2.8
Stevenage
2.8
Tranmere
2.8
Crawley Town
2.8
Scunthorpe
2.6
Port Vale
2.6
Harrogate
2.6
Exeter
2.5
Rochdale
2.5
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Northampton
27.7
Walsall
26.5
Crawley Town
26.4
Carlisle
26.2
Mansfield
26.2
Bristol Rvs
26.1
Swindon
25.7
Tranmere
25.5
Salford
25.4
Harrogate
25.2
Barrow
25.1
Stevenage
25.0
Bradford
24.6
Newport County
24.6
Leyton Orient
24.5
Forest Green
24.1
Port Vale
24.0
Scunthorpe
23.7
Sutton
23.5
Colchester
23.4
Oldham
22.3
Exeter
22.1
Rochdale
21.8
Hartlepool
21.5
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
24.7%
Under 9.5
75.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
25.1%
Under 3.5
74.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
50.1%
Under 21.5
49.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Tranmere
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.1
Avg scored
0.1
Avg conceded
0.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.33
0.67
0.27
0.47
0.40
vs Stronger (2)
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
vs Similar (24)
0.46
0.33
0.64
0.29
0.20
0.40
vs Weaker (4)
1.00
0.50
-
-
1.00
0.50
Clean sheet %
77% (+48pp vs league)
This opponent (Newport County) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Newport County
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.47
0.40
0.20
0.67
0.73
vs Stronger (3)
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
-
-
vs Similar (24)
0.46
0.54
0.30
0.30
0.57
0.71
vs Weaker (3)
1.67
0.33
1.50
0.00
2.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
60% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Tranmere) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Tranmere over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tranmere over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tranmere over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Newport County over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Newport County over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Newport County over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Tranmere
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.6
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.53
0.67
0.60
0.47
0.47
vs Stronger (2)
1.50
1.00
1.00
1.00
2.00
1.00
vs Similar (24)
0.50
0.58
0.64
0.57
0.30
0.60
vs Weaker (4)
0.50
0.00
-
-
0.50
0.00
Clean sheet %
53% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Newport County) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Newport County
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.47
0.53
0.53
0.47
0.40
vs Stronger (3)
1.00
0.67
1.00
0.67
-
-
vs Similar (24)
0.42
0.50
0.40
0.60
0.43
0.43
vs Weaker (3)
0.67
0.00
0.50
0.00
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
63% (+35pp vs league)
This opponent (Tranmere) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Tranmere over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tranmere over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tranmere over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Newport County over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Newport County over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Newport County over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 5.5 cards
95.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners
90.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
88.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 4.5 cards
88.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 10.5 corners
84.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 25.5 fouls
79.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 9.5 corners
75.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 3.5 cards
74.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 2.5
72.3%
1.46
-
-
-
-
-
+7.7%
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Tranmere · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Tom Ince50%
Z. Okoro50%
Jordan Davies33%
Charlie Whitaker33%
J. Turnbull0%
N. Smith0%
Tom Conlon0%
W. Vaulks0%
S. Finley0%
Joe Ironside0%
J. Senior0%
Bobby Faulkner0%
J. Slater0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Jordan Davies67%
Charlie Whitaker33%
N. Smith25%
Tom Ince25%
S. Finley25%
Joe Ironside25%
J. Senior25%
Bobby Faulkner25%
J. Slater25%
J. Turnbull0%
Tom Conlon0%
W. Vaulks0%
Z. Okoro0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
J. Turnbull25%
Tom Conlon25%
J. Senior25%
J. Slater25%
N. Smith0%
Tom Ince0%
W. Vaulks0%
S. Finley0%
Jordan Davies0%
Joe Ironside0%
Charlie Whitaker0%
Bobby Faulkner0%
Z. Okoro0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
W. Vaulks33%
Jordan Davies33%
Charlie Whitaker33%
Tom Ince25%
Z. Okoro25%
J. Turnbull0%
N. Smith0%
Tom Conlon0%
S. Finley0%
Joe Ironside0%
J. Senior0%
Bobby Faulkner0%
J. Slater0%
Newport County · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Shaquille Gwengwe67%
H. Biggins50%
Yahya Bamba33%
Christian Doidge0%
C. Norman0%
L. Jenkins0%
Kyle Cameron0%
J. Wright0%
Ciaran Brennan0%
C. Evans0%
D. Sassi0%
Alfie Merritt0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Christian Doidge33%
C. Norman25%
Ciaran Brennan25%
Alfie Merritt25%
H. Biggins0%
L. Jenkins0%
Kyle Cameron0%
J. Wright0%
C. Evans0%
D. Sassi0%
Yahya Bamba0%
Shaquille Gwengwe0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Christian Doidge33%
Shaquille Gwengwe33%
H. Biggins25%
Alfie Merritt25%
C. Norman0%
L. Jenkins0%
Kyle Cameron0%
J. Wright0%
Ciaran Brennan0%
C. Evans0%
D. Sassi0%
Yahya Bamba0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
H. Biggins25%
Christian Doidge0%
C. Norman0%
L. Jenkins0%
Kyle Cameron0%
J. Wright0%
Ciaran Brennan0%
C. Evans0%
D. Sassi0%
Yahya Bamba0%
Shaquille Gwengwe0%
Alfie Merritt0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LO (23)
€10m
SAL (26)
€8m
BRA (21)
€7m
STE (21)
€7m
PV (23)
€7m
MAN (23)
€6m
BR (24)
€5m
SWI (22)
€4m
TRA (21)
€4m
COL (20)
€4m
CT (19)
€3m
NOR (18)
€3m
EXE (15)
€3m
WAL (20)
€3m
OLD (21)
€3m
ROC (10)
€2m
NC (16)
€2m
BAR (11)
€2m
HAR (14)
€1m
FG (4)
€1m
HAR (6)
€1m
SCU (2)
€0m
CAR (1)
€0m
SUT (1)
€0m
Tranmere's squad is €2m more valuable than Newport County's (€4m vs €2m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LO (6)
€4m
BRA (9)
€3m
SAL (9)
€3m
STE (6)
€2m
BR (10)
€2m
SWI (8)
€2m
PV (5)
€2m
CT (7)
€2m
COL (7)
€1m
MAN (6)
€1m
EXE (5)
€1m
TRA (7)
€1m
OLD (7)
€1m
ROC (3)
€1m
NOR (5)
€1m
WAL (4)
€1m
BAR (3)
€0m
FG (2)
€0m
NC (3)
€0m
HAR (4)
€0m
HAR (2)
€0m
SCU (1)
€0m
CAR (0)
€0m
SUT (0)
€0m
Tranmere and Newport County have a similar attack value (both €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MAN (5)
€3m
LO (8)
€3m
PV (7)
€2m
SAL (5)
€2m
STE (6)
€2m
TRA (6)
€1m
BRA (3)
€1m
SWI (7)
€1m
EXE (5)
€1m
OLD (7)
€1m
CT (7)
€1m
BAR (5)
€1m
WAL (5)
€1m
NOR (3)
€1m
ROC (3)
€1m
HAR (4)
€1m
BR (4)
€0m
COL (3)
€0m
NC (3)
€0m
HAR (2)
€0m
SUT (1)
€0m
SCU (0)
€0m
FG (0)
€0m
CAR (0)
€0m
Tranmere and Newport County have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PV (11)
€3m
LO (9)
€3m
STE (9)
€3m
SAL (12)
€3m
BRA (9)
€3m
BR (10)
€3m
MAN (12)
€2m
NOR (10)
€2m
COL (10)
€2m
WAL (11)
€2m
NC (10)
€1m
TRA (8)
€1m
EXE (5)
€1m
OLD (7)
€1m
SWI (7)
€1m
ROC (4)
€1m
CT (5)
€1m
BAR (3)
€1m
HAR (6)
€0m
FG (2)
€0m
CAR (1)
€0m
SCU (1)
€0m
HAR (2)
€0m
SUT (0)
€0m
Tranmere and Newport County have a similar defence value (both €1m).
England: League Two 2021/22 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full England: League Two stats & trends →
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Forest Green
Exeter
Bristol Rvs
Northampton
Port Vale
Swindon
Mansfield
Sutton
Salford
Crawley Town
Leyton Orient
Bradford
Colchester
Walsall
Hartlepool
Rochdale
Harrogate
Carlisle
Stevenage
Barrow
Oldham
Scunthorpe