Triglav’s recent win over Dravinja fuels the model’s confidence that they will prevail at home, reflected in a 64% chance of a home victory, 21% for a draw and 15% for a Brežice win. The model’s pick is a home win, driven by Triglav’s strong home form - averaging 3.67 goals scored and only 0.67 conceded against weaker opponents - while Brežice, playing away against a stronger side, averages just 0.5 goals scored and 1.5 conceded. The expected total is 3.1 goals, with the most likely total of 3 goals at 22%. The single most probable scoreline is 2-0 for Triglav, with a 10.2% probability. Suggested picks include Under 7.5 (98.5%), Away under 3.5 goals (98.3%), Under 6.5 (96.0%), Home +2 handicap (94.7%), Away under 2.5 goals (92.5% with a 2% edge), Under 5.5 (90.2% with a 6% edge), Home over 0.5 goals (88.5% with a 1% edge) and Home or Draw (85.1% with no edge).
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Triglav win
63.7%
Avg Implied 65.3% · @ 1.37
Edge
-1.6%
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.45
Bet365
1.45
Dafabet
1.43
Superbet
1.43
William Hil
1.40
Draw
21.4%
Avg Implied 19.9% · @ 4.50
Edge
+1.5%
Best 5 market prices
Unibet
5.30
10Bet
5.25
Pinnacle
4.63
Betfair
4.60
Dafabet
4.60
Brežice win
14.9%
Avg Implied 14.8% · @ 6.05
Edge
+0.1%
Best 5 market prices
10Bet
8.60
Unibet
7.50
1xBet
6.38
Marathonbet
6.15
Betfair
6.00
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Triglav
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.50
0.87
2.86
0.93
2.19
0.81
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (12)
1.17
1.08
1.40
1.40
1.00
0.86
vs Weaker (18)
3.39
0.72
3.67
0.67
3.11
0.78
Clean sheet %
50% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Brežice) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Brežice
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
1.67
1.00
2.00
0.50
1.50
vs Stronger (3)
0.67
1.67
1.00
2.00
0.50
1.50
vs Similar (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
0% (-29pp vs league)
This opponent (Triglav) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.1 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
82.9%
@ 1.11+2.5%
Under 1.5
17.1%
@ 4.55-2.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.14
Betfair
1.11
1xBet
1.11
Marathonbet
1.11
BetVictor
1.10
Under
Betfair
5.50
1xBet
4.80
Marathonbet
4.80
Superbet
4.25
BetVictor
3.40
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
60.5%
@ 1.48-1.2%
Under 2.5
39.5%
@ 2.38+1.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.53
Betano
1.53
Bet365
1.53
Betfair
1.50
Marathonbet
1.48
Under
10Bet
2.62
Unibet
2.55
Pinnacle
2.47
Marathonbet
2.44
1xBet
2.44
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
38.2%
@ 2.16-3.8%
Under 3.5
61.8%
@ 1.56+3.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
2.32
Betano
2.27
Betfair
2.25
Pinnacle
2.19
Marathonbet
2.15
Under
10Bet
1.67
Unibet
1.63
Pinnacle
1.59
Betfair
1.57
Marathonbet
1.56
Both teams to score
Yes
55.8%
@ 1.66+1.1%
No
44.2%
@ 2.00-1.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
10Bet
1.80
Superbet
1.73
Betano
1.70
Betfair
1.65
Marathonbet
1.64
No
William Hil
2.15
Betfair
2.10
1xBet
2.08
Marathonbet
2.04
Superbet
2.00
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-0
10.2%@ 7.13+4.3%
1-1
10.1%@ 8.46+5.1%
2-1
9.9%@ 7.45+4.2%
1-0
8.5%@ 8.01+3.2%
3-0
7.4%@ 9.16+2.7%
3-1
7.1%@ 9.68+2.7%
0-0
5.3%@ 15.42+2.5%
2-2
4.8%@ 14.84+1.9%
Triglav goals ↓
Brežice goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
5.3%
3.3%
2.1%
0.7%
0.2%
1
8.5%
10%
4.4%
1.4%
0.3%
2
10%
9.9%
4.8%
1.5%
0.4%
3
7.4%
7.1%
3.5%
1.1%
0.3%
4
4.0%
3.9%
1.9%
0.6%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Triglav goals (down), columns = Brežice goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Triglav
2.13
Beltinci
2.00
Primorje
1.70
Tabor Sežana
1.67
Bistrica
1.50
Brežice
1.38
Dren Vrhnika
1.38
Rudar
1.23
Dravinja
1.23
Bilje
1.13
Dekani
1.10
Slovan Ljubljana
1.07
Krka
0.97
Ilirija
0.90
Krško
0.87
Jesenice
0.60
Triglav is 0.75 points better than Brežice in terms of average points per game (2.13 vs 1.38).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Triglav
2.40
Beltinci
1.83
Primorje
1.73
Bistrica
1.67
Rudar
1.53
Brežice
1.41
Dren Vrhnika
1.41
Dekani
1.33
Ilirija
1.27
Tabor Sežana
1.23
Slovan Ljubljana
1.07
Krka
1.07
Dravinja
1.07
Bilje
0.90
Jesenice
0.87
Krško
0.80
Triglav is 0.99 goals better than Brežice in terms of goals scored per game (2.40 vs 1.41).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Beltinci
0.83
Triglav
0.93
Tabor Sežana
1.10
Primorje
1.15
Bistrica
1.20
Rudar
1.30
Brežice
1.41
Dren Vrhnika
1.41
Dravinja
1.47
Dekani
1.53
Bilje
1.57
Krka
1.70
Slovan Ljubljana
1.73
Ilirija
1.73
Krško
2.07
Jesenice
2.27
Triglav is 0.48 goals better than Brežice in terms of goals conceded per game (0.93 vs 1.41).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Triglav or Draw
85.1%
Avg Implied 85.0% · @ 1.07
Edge
+0.1%
64%
21%
15%
covers Triglav + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.13
BetVictor
1.13
William Hil
1.11
Betfair
1.10
Superbet
1.09
Triglav or Brežice
78.6%
Avg Implied 81.5% · @ 1.12
Edge
-2.9%
64%
21%
15%
covers Triglav + Brežice
Best 5 market prices
William Hil
1.20
Betano
1.18
Superbet
1.15
Betfair
1.14
1xBet
1.12
Draw or Brežice
36.3%
Avg Implied 33.5% · @ 2.72
Edge
+2.7%
64%
21%
15%
covers Draw + Brežice
Best 5 market prices
Bet365
3.20
10Bet
3.10
Unibet
3.00
Betfair
2.80
Betano
2.67
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Triglav over/under 0.5
Over
88.5%
@ 1.04+0.8%
Under
11.5%
@ 7.40-0.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.04
Under
1xBet
7.40
Triglav over/under 1.5
Over
63.6%
@ 1.40-2.1%
Under
36.4%
@ 2.68+2.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.48
Superbet
1.44
Marathonbet
1.39
1xBet
1.39
10Bet
1.28
Under
10Bet
3.10
Marathonbet
2.68
1xBet
2.68
Superbet
2.50
Pinnacle
2.42
Triglav over/under 2.5
Over
36.7%
@ 2.23-4.6%
Under
63.3%
@ 1.57+4.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.40
Superbet
2.35
Pinnacle
2.26
1xBet
2.22
Marathonbet
2.22
Under
10Bet
1.73
1xBet
1.56
Marathonbet
1.56
Pinnacle
1.55
Betano
1.50
Triglav over/under 3.5
Over
17.3%
@ 4.17-4.4%
Under
82.7%
@ 1.16+4.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
4.25
1xBet
4.10
Under
1xBet
1.18
Superbet
1.14
Brežice over/under 0.5
Over
62.0%
@ 1.57+3.5%
Under
38.0%
@ 2.21-3.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
1.67
Marathonbet
1.63
Betano
1.57
Superbet
1.53
1xBet
1.50
Under
Pinnacle
2.37
1xBet
2.31
Betano
2.27
Superbet
2.27
Marathonbet
2.06
Brežice over/under 1.5
Over
25.3%
@ 3.62+0.0%
Under
74.7%
@ 1.22-0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
4.20
Superbet
3.45
1xBet
3.42
Marathonbet
3.42
Under
Marathonbet
1.25
1xBet
1.25
Superbet
1.22
10Bet
1.17
Brežice over/under 2.5
Over
7.5%
@ 9.35-2.3%
Under
92.5%
@ 1.01+2.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
10.50
Superbet
8.20
Under
Superbet
1.01
1xBet
1.01
Brežice over/under 3.5
Over
1.7%
Under
98.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Triglav, so a minus line means Triglav give that many goals of a start and Brežice receive them. At -1, Triglav must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Triglav win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Triglav)
Triglav -2
21.7%
@ 3.02-7.9%
Draw -2
19.5%
@ 4.02-2.7%
Brežice +2
58.8%
@ 1.85+10.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Marathonbet
3.42
Betfair
2.88
10Bet
2.75
Draw
Marathonbet
4.15
Betfair
4.00
10Bet
3.90
Away
10Bet
2.00
Betfair
1.91
Marathonbet
1.64
Handicap -1 (Triglav)
Triglav -1
41.2%
@ 2.01-2.3%
Draw -1
22.5%
@ 3.65-1.4%
Brežice +1
36.3%
@ 2.69+3.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Marathonbet
2.02
Betfair
2.00
Draw
Betfair
3.75
Marathonbet
3.55
Away
Betfair
2.75
Marathonbet
2.62
Handicap +1 (Triglav)
Triglav +1
85.1%
Draw +1
9.6%
Brežice -1
5.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Triglav)
Triglav +2
94.7%
Draw +2
3.9%
Brežice -2
1.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Triglav
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.6
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.07
0.43
1.14
0.43
1.00
0.44
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (12)
0.50
0.42
0.80
0.60
0.29
0.29
vs Weaker (18)
1.44
0.44
1.33
0.33
1.56
0.56
Clean sheet %
67% (+38pp vs league)
This opponent (Brežice) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Brežice
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.33
0.67
1.00
0.00
0.00
1.00
vs Stronger (3)
0.33
0.67
1.00
0.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
33% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (Triglav) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Triglav over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.55
Superbet
1.47
1xBet
1.47
Pinnacle
1.41
Under
Pinnacle
2.60
1xBet
2.50
Superbet
2.42
Betano
2.30
Triglav over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
3.20
Superbet
2.70
Under
Superbet
1.37
1xBet
1.29
Triglav over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
8.70
Under
1xBet
1.02
Brežice over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.67
Superbet
2.57
Pinnacle
2.54
1xBet
2.47
Under
1xBet
1.48
Pinnacle
1.43
Betano
1.42
Superbet
1.41
Brežice over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
9.40
Under
1xBet
1.02
Brežice over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Triglav
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.43
0.43
1.71
0.50
1.19
0.38
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (12)
0.67
0.67
0.60
0.80
0.71
0.57
vs Weaker (18)
1.94
0.28
2.33
0.33
1.56
0.22
Clean sheet %
67% (+38pp vs league)
This opponent (Brežice) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Brežice
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.33
1.00
0.00
2.00
0.50
0.50
vs Stronger (3)
0.33
1.00
0.00
2.00
0.50
0.50
vs Similar (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
33% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (Triglav) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Triglav over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Triglav over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Triglav over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Brežice over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Brežice over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Brežice over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
98.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
98.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
95.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
94.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
92.5%
1.01
Superbet
1.01
1xBet
1.01
-
-
-
+2.3%
Under 5.5
90.2%
1.06
1xBet
1.07
Superbet
1.06
BetVictor
1.04
-
-
+5.8%
Home over 0.5 goals
88.5%
1.04
1xBet
1.04
-
-
-
-
+0.8%
Home or Draw
85.1%
1.07
Betano
1.13
BetVictor
1.13
William Hil
1.11
Betfair
1.10
Superbet
1.09
+0.1%
Home +1 handicap
85.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
82.9%
1.11
Superbet
1.14
Betfair
1.11
1xBet
1.11
Marathonbet
1.11
BetVictor
1.10
+2.5%
Home under 3.5 goals
82.7%
1.16
1xBet
1.18
Superbet
1.14
-
-
-
+4.4%
Under 4.5
79.3%
1.21
Unibet
1.25
10Bet
1.25
1xBet
1.21
Marathonbet
1.21
Betano
1.20
+5.0%
Home or Away
78.6%
1.12
William Hil
1.20
Betano
1.18
Superbet
1.15
Betfair
1.14
1xBet
1.12
-2.9%
Away under 1.5 goals
74.7%
1.22
Marathonbet
1.25
1xBet
1.25
Superbet
1.22
10Bet
1.17
-
-0.0%
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Slovenia: 2. SNL 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Slovenia: 2. SNL stats & trends →