Triglav’s recent 4-1 victory over Dravinja and a winning streak in their last five games give the model a clear edge for a home win, reflected in a 77% probability for the home side, 15% for a draw and 8% for Jesenice. The expected total of 3.8 goals translates to an average of 3.8, with the most likely total goal count being 3 at 21%. The single most likely scoreline is 2-0, carrying a 9.4% chance. Triglav averages 3.67 goals scored and 0.67 conceded at home against weaker opposition, while Jesenice averages only 0.73 goals scored and 2.53 conceded on the road against stronger teams. The model’s selections include Away under 3.5 goals at 98.6%, Home +2 handicap at 97.2%, Under 7.5 at 96.1%, Home over 0.5 goals at 94.4%, Away under 2.5 goals at 93.5%, Home or Draw at 91.6%, Home +1 handicap at 91.6%, and Under 6.5 at 91.0%. Each pick is presented with its exact probability.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Triglav win
77.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
14.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Jesenice win
8.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Triglav
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.50
0.87
2.86
0.93
2.19
0.81
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (12)
1.17
1.08
1.40
1.40
1.00
0.86
vs Weaker (18)
3.39
0.72
3.67
0.67
3.11
0.78
Clean sheet %
50% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Jesenice) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Jesenice
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.3
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
2.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
2.27
1.00
2.00
0.73
2.53
vs Stronger (28)
0.86
2.39
1.00
2.23
0.73
2.53
vs Similar (2)
1.00
0.50
1.00
0.50
-
-
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
13% (-15pp vs league)
This opponent (Triglav) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.8 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (21%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
89.8%
Under 1.5
10.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
72.9%
Under 2.5
27.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
52.4%
Under 3.5
47.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
57.1%
No
42.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-0
9.4%
3-0
9.0%
2-1
8.6%
3-1
8.2%
1-1
6.5%
4-0
6.5%
1-0
5.9%
4-1
5.9%
Triglav goals ↓
Jesenice goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
2.9%
1.5%
0.9%
0.3%
0.1%
1
5.9%
6.5%
2.7%
0.8%
0.2%
2
9.4%
8.6%
3.9%
1.2%
0.3%
3
9.0%
8.2%
3.7%
1.1%
0.3%
4
6.5%
5.9%
2.7%
0.8%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Triglav goals (down), columns = Jesenice goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Triglav
2.13
Beltinci
2.00
Primorje
1.70
Tabor Sežana
1.67
Bistrica
1.50
Brežice
1.38
Dren Vrhnika
1.38
Rudar
1.23
Dravinja
1.23
Bilje
1.13
Dekani
1.10
Slovan Ljubljana
1.07
Krka
0.97
Ilirija
0.90
Krško
0.87
Jesenice
0.60
Triglav is 1.53 points better than Jesenice in terms of average points per game (2.13 vs 0.60).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Triglav
2.40
Beltinci
1.83
Primorje
1.73
Bistrica
1.67
Rudar
1.53
Brežice
1.41
Dren Vrhnika
1.41
Dekani
1.33
Ilirija
1.27
Tabor Sežana
1.23
Slovan Ljubljana
1.07
Krka
1.07
Dravinja
1.07
Bilje
0.90
Jesenice
0.87
Krško
0.80
Triglav is 1.53 goals better than Jesenice in terms of goals scored per game (2.40 vs 0.87).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Beltinci
0.83
Triglav
0.93
Tabor Sežana
1.10
Primorje
1.15
Bistrica
1.20
Rudar
1.30
Brežice
1.41
Dren Vrhnika
1.41
Dravinja
1.47
Dekani
1.53
Bilje
1.57
Krka
1.70
Slovan Ljubljana
1.73
Ilirija
1.73
Krško
2.07
Jesenice
2.27
Triglav is 1.33 goals better than Jesenice in terms of goals conceded per game (0.93 vs 2.27).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Triglav or Draw
91.6%
Avg Implied -
77%
15%
8%
covers Triglav + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Triglav or Jesenice
85.4%
Avg Implied -
77%
15%
8%
covers Triglav + Jesenice
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Jesenice
23.0%
Avg Implied -
77%
15%
8%
covers Draw + Jesenice
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Triglav over/under 0.5
Over
94.4%
Under
5.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Triglav over/under 1.5
Over
78.2%
Under
21.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Triglav over/under 2.5
Over
54.9%
Under
45.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Triglav over/under 3.5
Over
32.5%
Under
67.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Jesenice over/under 0.5
Over
59.9%
Under
40.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Jesenice over/under 1.5
Over
23.2%
Under
76.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Jesenice over/under 2.5
Over
6.5%
Under
93.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Jesenice over/under 3.5
Over
1.4%
Under
98.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Triglav, so a minus line means Triglav give that many goals of a start and Jesenice receive them. At -1, Triglav must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Triglav win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Triglav)
Triglav -2
37.1%
Draw -2
20.8%
Jesenice +2
42.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Triglav)
Triglav -1
57.8%
Draw -1
19.1%
Jesenice +1
23.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Triglav)
Triglav +1
91.6%
Draw +1
5.7%
Jesenice -1
2.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Triglav)
Triglav +2
97.2%
Draw +2
2.1%
Jesenice -2
0.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Triglav
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.6
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.07
0.43
1.14
0.43
1.00
0.44
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (12)
0.50
0.42
0.80
0.60
0.29
0.29
vs Weaker (18)
1.44
0.44
1.33
0.33
1.56
0.56
Clean sheet %
67% (+38pp vs league)
This opponent (Jesenice) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Jesenice
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.40
0.80
0.40
0.73
0.40
0.87
vs Stronger (28)
0.36
0.86
0.31
0.85
0.40
0.87
vs Similar (2)
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
-
-
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Triglav) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Triglav over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Triglav over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Triglav over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Jesenice over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Jesenice over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Jesenice over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Triglav
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.43
0.43
1.71
0.50
1.19
0.38
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (12)
0.67
0.67
0.60
0.80
0.71
0.57
vs Weaker (18)
1.94
0.28
2.33
0.33
1.56
0.22
Clean sheet %
67% (+38pp vs league)
This opponent (Jesenice) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Jesenice
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
1.47
0.60
1.27
0.33
1.67
vs Stronger (28)
0.50
1.54
0.69
1.38
0.33
1.67
vs Similar (2)
0.00
0.50
0.00
0.50
-
-
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
27% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (Triglav) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Triglav over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Triglav over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Triglav over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Jesenice over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Jesenice over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Jesenice over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Away under 3.5 goals
98.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
97.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 7.5
96.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
94.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
93.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Draw
91.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +1 handicap
91.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
91.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
89.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
85.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
81.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 1.5 goals
78.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home win
77.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 goals
76.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 2.5
72.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TRI (19)
€2m
TS (17)
€2m
BEL (17)
€2m
ILI (15)
€1m
DRA (16)
€1m
DEK (18)
€1m
BIL (17)
€1m
RUD (17)
€1m
KRK (12)
€1m
BIS (14)
€1m
PRI (10)
€1m
JES (13)
€1m
SL (13)
€1m
KRŠ (13)
€1m
Triglav's squad is €1m more valuable than Jesenice's (€2m vs €1m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BEL (8)
€1m
TRI (7)
€1m
ILI (7)
€1m
TS (4)
€1m
BIL (5)
€1m
KRK (5)
€0m
BIS (6)
€0m
DRA (4)
€0m
JES (5)
€0m
DEK (3)
€0m
KRŠ (4)
€0m
RUD (3)
€0m
SL (2)
€0m
PRI (3)
€0m
Triglav and Jesenice have a similar attack value (both €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TS (5)
€1m
RUD (8)
€1m
TRI (5)
€0m
DEK (6)
€0m
BEL (3)
€0m
PRI (2)
€0m
SL (3)
€0m
BIS (4)
€0m
JES (2)
€0m
ILI (2)
€0m
DRA (2)
€0m
BIL (4)
€0m
KRK (1)
€0m
KRŠ (1)
€0m
Triglav and Jesenice have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TRI (7)
€1m
DRA (10)
€1m
TS (8)
€1m
KRK (6)
€1m
BEL (6)
€1m
BIL (8)
€1m
DEK (9)
€1m
RUD (6)
€0m
ILI (6)
€0m
KRŠ (8)
€0m
SL (8)
€0m
PRI (5)
€0m
BIS (4)
€0m
JES (6)
€0m
Triglav and Jesenice have a similar defence value (both €1m).
Slovenia: 2. SNL 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Slovenia: 2. SNL stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Tabor Sežana
Ilirija
Slovan Ljubljana
Bistrica
Beltinci
Rudar
Dren Vrhnika
Bilje
Primorje
Krško
Dekani
Krka
Brežice
Dravinja