Tukums vs Auda Result & Analysis

The model favours an away win, with a 56% chance for Auda and 17% for Tukums, while a draw sits at 27%. The expected total is 2.4 goals, with the most likely total of two goals at 27%. The single most likely scoreline is 0-1 for Tukums, a 13.5% probability. Tukums, playing at home against a stronger opponent, averages 0.56 goals scored and 2.78 conceded, whereas Auda, on the road against a weaker side, averages 2.0 scored and 0.33 conceded. Suggested picks include Under 3.5 with a 77.8% chance, and Over 1.5 with 70.4%. The match is expected to be tight, with Tukums struggling after a 1-4 loss to FS Jelgava and Auda coming off a 1-1 draw with Super Nova. The model’s selection points to a low-scoring, one-goal margin in favour of the visitors.

The upset came early as the pre-match favourite, Away win, failed to deliver, with the match ending in a 2-2 draw. The model had given the away side a 56% chance of triumph, yet the result was a stalemate. The suggested picks also fell short: Under 3.5, at 77.8%, missed, while Over 1.5, at 70.4%, hit. Tukums, after a run of three consecutive defeats, could not keep their form, and Auda, coming off a draw, managed only a level scoreline. The final result contradicted the model’s call, proving the prediction wrong.