Tukums vs Auda Result & Analysis

The model favours an away win, with a 42% chance for Auda, 31% for a draw and 27% for Tukums. The expected total goals hover at 2.3, so a tidy 2-goal match is most likely, and the single most probable scoreline is 1-1 at 14.3%. Tukums, playing at home against a stronger side, averages 1.45 goals scored and 2.09 conceded, while Auda, on the road against a weaker opponent, nets 1.75 and concedes only 0.75. The suggested pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 79.9% probability. Tukums have struggled recently, losing three of their last five after a 1-4 defeat to FS Jelgava, whereas Auda are coming off a 1-1 draw with Super Nova. The model’s selection for the match outcome is an away win.

Tukums’ recent slump of three straight losses set the stage, while Auda’s five-game run of a draw and two wins suggested a positive swing. The final 1-4 scoreline confirmed the model’s pick of an away win, and the 4-goal tally far exceeded the expected 2.3 total. The pre-match favourite, Away win, held a 42% probability and proved correct. The model’s single suggested pick, Under 3.5, missed with a 79.9% probability. All figures are taken directly from the data, and the match outcome matched the model’s forecast.