Tukums are the clear favourite to win, with a 47% chance of triumph, 28% for a draw and 26% for BFC Daugavpils. The model expects 2.7 goals on average, but the most likely total is 2, a 26% probability. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, with a 13.2% chance, reflecting the evenly matched nature of the sides.
At home, Tukums have been solid, scoring 1.29 and conceding 0.71 against similar opposition, while BFC Daugavpils, on the road, manage only 0.44 goals and allow 1.22. Tukums’ recent form shows a recovery after three straight defeats, whereas BFC Daugavpils are coming off a loss.
The model’s selections include Over 1.5 goals at 75.6% and Under 3.5 goals at 72.2%. These picks stand apart from the match-result probabilities and carry their own likelihoods.
Results analysis
The win for Tukums extends their run, ending a string of three defeats. The model called a home win with a 47% probability, and the result matched that prediction. The final score was 1-0, a home victory that confirmed the model’s pick. The suggested picks saw Over 1.5 miss despite a 75.6% probability, while Under 3.5 hit with 72.2%. Tukums’ recent form shows a 1-4 loss to FS Jelgava, yet they managed to secure the win, whereas BFC Daugavpils, after a 0-1 defeat to Grobiņa, fell short. Overall, the model’s call was correct, but its over-goal selection failed.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Tukums win✓ Hit
46.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
27.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
BFC Daugavpils win✗ Miss
25.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Tukums
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.13
1.70
1.00
1.25
1.29
2.21
vs Stronger (17)
0.82
2.24
0.78
1.67
0.88
2.88
vs Similar (13)
1.54
1.00
1.29
0.71
1.83
1.33
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
17% (-12pp vs league)
This opponent (BFC Daugavpils) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
BFC Daugavpils
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
1.90
1.00
1.86
0.69
1.94
vs Stronger (9)
0.44
3.11
0.75
3.00
0.20
3.20
vs Similar (17)
0.59
1.35
0.75
1.50
0.44
1.22
vs Weaker (4)
2.75
1.50
2.50
1.00
3.00
2.00
Clean sheet %
20% (-8pp vs league)
This opponent (Tukums) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
75.6%
Under 1.5
24.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
49.7%
Under 2.5
50.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
27.8%
Under 3.5
72.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
54.0%
No
46.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.2%
1-0 ✓
9.7%
2-1
9.3%
2-0
8.5%
0-0
8.2%
1-2
6.6%
0-1
6.5%
2-2
5.2%
Tukums goals ↓
BFC Daugavpils goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
8.2%
6.5%
4.3%
1.6%
0.4%
1
9.7%
13%
6.6%
2.4%
0.7%
2
8.5%
9.3%
5.2%
1.9%
0.5%
3
4.4%
4.8%
2.7%
1.0%
0.3%
4
1.7%
1.9%
1.0%
0.4%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Tukums goals (down), columns = BFC Daugavpils goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Rīgas FS
2.47
Riga
2.44
Auda
1.61
Valmiera / BSS
1.47
FK Liepaja
1.42
FS Jelgava
1.11
Metta / LU
1.03
BFC Daugavpils
1.00
Tukums
0.97
Super Nova
0.39
Skanste
0.00
Tukums is 0.03 points worse than BFC Daugavpils in terms of average points per game (0.97 vs 1.00).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Rīgas FS
2.67
Riga
2.47
FK Liepaja
1.44
Valmiera / BSS
1.31
Tukums
1.31
Metta / LU
1.29
Auda
1.22
FS Jelgava
1.17
BFC Daugavpils
1.11
Skanste
1.00
Super Nova
0.69
Tukums is 0.19 goals better than BFC Daugavpils in terms of goals scored per game (1.31 vs 1.11).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Rīgas FS
0.50
Riga
0.58
Auda
1.08
Valmiera / BSS
1.11
BFC Daugavpils
1.44
FK Liepaja
1.50
FS Jelgava
1.58
Metta / LU
1.71
Tukums
2.31
Super Nova
2.67
Skanste
4.00
Tukums is 0.86 goals worse than BFC Daugavpils in terms of goals conceded per game (2.31 vs 1.44).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Tukums
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.43
0.87
0.50
0.50
0.36
1.29
vs Stronger (17)
0.29
1.06
0.56
0.56
0.00
1.62
vs Similar (13)
0.62
0.62
0.43
0.43
0.83
0.83
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
37% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (BFC Daugavpils) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
BFC Daugavpils
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.40
0.67
0.57
0.71
0.25
0.62
vs Stronger (9)
0.33
1.22
0.75
1.25
0.00
1.20
vs Similar (17)
0.29
0.35
0.25
0.38
0.33
0.33
vs Weaker (4)
1.00
0.75
1.50
1.00
0.50
0.50
Clean sheet %
47% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Tukums) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Tukums over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tukums over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tukums over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
BFC Daugavpils over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
BFC Daugavpils over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
BFC Daugavpils over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Tukums
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.83
0.50
0.75
0.93
0.93
vs Stronger (17)
0.53
1.18
0.22
1.11
0.88
1.25
vs Similar (13)
0.92
0.38
0.86
0.29
1.00
0.50
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (BFC Daugavpils) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
BFC Daugavpils
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.43
1.23
0.43
1.14
0.44
1.31
vs Stronger (9)
0.11
1.89
0.00
1.75
0.20
2.00
vs Similar (17)
0.29
1.00
0.50
1.12
0.11
0.89
vs Weaker (4)
1.75
0.75
1.00
0.00
2.50
1.50
Clean sheet %
30% (+2pp vs league)
This opponent (Tukums) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Tukums over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tukums over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tukums over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
BFC Daugavpils over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
BFC Daugavpils over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
BFC Daugavpils over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
75.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 3.5
72.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RIG (27)
€16m
RF (29)
€11m
AUD (25)
€6m
FL (21)
€5m
SN (24)
€3m
FJ (23)
€3m
BD (21)
€3m
TUK (20)
€2m
M/L (4)
€0m
Tukums and BFC Daugavpils have a similar squad value (both €2m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RIG (10)
€7m
RF (15)
€6m
AUD (11)
€3m
FL (7)
€2m
SN (8)
€1m
FJ (8)
€1m
TUK (7)
€1m
BD (7)
€1m
M/L (1)
€0m
Tukums and BFC Daugavpils have a similar attack value (both €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RIG (5)
€3m
RF (4)
€2m
SN (6)
€1m
FL (4)
€1m
BD (6)
€1m
FJ (5)
€0m
AUD (3)
€0m
TUK (3)
€0m
M/L (1)
€0m
Tukums and BFC Daugavpils have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RIG (12)
€6m
RF (10)
€3m
AUD (11)
€3m
FL (10)
€2m
FJ (10)
€1m
TUK (10)
€1m
BD (8)
€1m
SN (10)
€1m
M/L (2)
€0m
Tukums and BFC Daugavpils have a similar defence value (both €1m).
Latvia: Virsliga 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Latvia: Virsliga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Rīgas FS
Riga
Auda
Valmiera / BSS
FK Liepaja
FS Jelgava
Metta / LU
Super Nova
Skanste