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Tukums vs BFC Daugavpils Result & Analysis

Date: 01/09/2023
Time: 14:00
Final 3-0
Tukums
Tukums
Vs
35%
29%
36%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
BFC Daugavpils
BFC Daugavpils
Latvia: Virsliga
Referee: -

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Tukums win✓ Hit
34.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
29.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
BFC Daugavpils win✗ Miss
36.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

TukumsTukums

Last 10 – goals for & against
70-720W13L52W11D06L06L07L12L22D02LH·FS 10/06A·BFC26/06A·SUP30/06H·MET03/07A·VAL07/07H·RIG23/07A·RĪG29/07H·FK 05/08H·AUD12/08A·FS 26/08
Avg total
4.3
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
3.1
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.232.571.002.201.472.93
vs Stronger (17)0.883.120.672.891.123.38
vs Similar (13)1.691.851.501.171.862.43
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %17% (-12pp vs league)
This opponent (BFC Daugavpils) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

BFC DaugavpilsBFC Daugavpils

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-311D31W11D20W00D10W03L01L12L02LA·AUD10/06H·TUK26/06H·FS 30/06H·SUP05/07A·MET10/07A·VAL22/07A·RIG30/07H·RĪG08/08A·FK 12/08H·AUD27/08
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.1
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.201.471.381.501.001.43
vs Stronger (9)0.441.780.502.000.401.60
vs Similar (17)1.531.291.731.361.171.17
vs Weaker (4)1.501.501.001.001.671.67
Clean sheet %17% (-12pp vs league)
This opponent (Tukums) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%13%20%27%9%017%127%222%314%47%55%6+
The model estimates around 2.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
73.9%
Under 1.5
26.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
47.4%
Under 2.5
52.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
25.7%
Under 3.5
74.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
53.6%
No
46.4%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.9%
0-0
8.9%
0-1
8.7%
1-0
8.5%
1-2
8.2%
2-1
8.0%
0-2
6.4%
2-0
6.2%
Tukums goals ↓
BFC Daugavpils goals →
01234
08.9%8.7%6.4%2.8%0.9%
18.5%14%8.2%3.5%1.1%
26.2%8.0%5.2%2.3%0.7%
32.6%3.4%2.2%1.0%0.3%
40.8%1.1%0.7%0.3%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Tukums goals (down), columns = BFC Daugavpils goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Rīgas FS
2.47
Riga
2.44
Auda
1.61
Valmiera / BSS
1.47
FK Liepaja
1.42
FS Jelgava
1.11
Metta / LU
1.03
BFC Daugavpils
1.00
Tukums
0.97
Super Nova
0.39
Skanste
0.00
Tukums is 0.03 points worse than BFC Daugavpils in terms of average points per game (0.97 vs 1.00).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Rīgas FS
2.67
Riga
2.47
FK Liepaja
1.44
Valmiera / BSS
1.31
Tukums
1.31
Metta / LU
1.29
Auda
1.22
FS Jelgava
1.17
BFC Daugavpils
1.11
Skanste
1.00
Super Nova
0.69
Tukums is 0.19 goals better than BFC Daugavpils in terms of goals scored per game (1.31 vs 1.11).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Rīgas FS
0.50
Riga
0.58
Auda
1.08
Valmiera / BSS
1.11
BFC Daugavpils
1.44
FK Liepaja
1.50
FS Jelgava
1.58
Metta / LU
1.71
Tukums
2.31
Super Nova
2.67
Skanste
4.00
Tukums is 0.86 goals worse than BFC Daugavpils in terms of goals conceded per game (2.31 vs 1.44).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

TukumsTukums

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
50-500D12L31W01L03L03L05L12L01L01LH·FS 10/06A·BFC26/06A·SUP30/06H·MET03/07A·VAL07/07H·RIG23/07A·RĪG29/07H·FK 05/08H·AUD12/08A·FS 26/08
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.9
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.471.330.331.130.601.53
vs Stronger (17)0.351.650.331.670.381.62
vs Similar (13)0.620.920.330.330.861.43
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %27% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (BFC Daugavpils) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

BFC DaugavpilsBFC Daugavpils

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-210W21W00D00D00D10W01L00D11D02LA·AUD10/06H·TUK26/06H·FS 30/06H·SUP05/07A·MET10/07A·VAL22/07A·RIG30/07H·RĪG08/08A·FK 12/08H·AUD27/08
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.600.500.500.500.710.50
vs Stronger (9)0.330.560.250.500.400.60
vs Similar (17)0.760.470.640.551.000.33
vs Weaker (4)0.500.500.000.000.670.67
Clean sheet %63% (+35pp vs league)
This opponent (Tukums) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Tukums over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tukums over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tukums over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
BFC Daugavpils over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
BFC Daugavpils over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
BFC Daugavpils over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

TukumsTukums

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-320W01L21W10W03L03L02L00D21W01LH·FS 10/06A·BFC26/06A·SUP30/06H·MET03/07A·VAL07/07H·RIG23/07A·RĪG29/07H·FK 05/08H·AUD12/08A·FS 26/08
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.2
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.771.230.671.070.871.40
vs Stronger (17)0.531.470.331.220.751.75
vs Similar (13)1.080.921.170.831.001.00
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %27% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (BFC Daugavpils) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

BFC DaugavpilsBFC Daugavpils

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-201L10W11D20W00D00D02L01L01L00DA·AUD10/06H·TUK26/06H·FS 30/06H·SUP05/07A·MET10/07A·VAL22/07A·RIG30/07H·RĪG08/08A·FK 12/08H·AUD27/08
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.600.970.881.000.290.93
vs Stronger (9)0.111.220.251.500.001.00
vs Similar (17)0.760.821.090.820.170.83
vs Weaker (4)1.001.001.001.001.001.00
Clean sheet %30% (+2pp vs league)
This opponent (Tukums) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Tukums over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tukums over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tukums over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
BFC Daugavpils over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
BFC Daugavpils over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
BFC Daugavpils over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Under 3.574.3%-------✓ Hit
Over 1.573.9%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RIG (27)
€16m
RF (29)
€11m
AUD (25)
€6m
FL (21)
€5m
SN (24)
€3m
FJ (23)
€3m
BD (21)
€3m
TUK (20)
€2m
M/L (4)
€0m
Tukums and BFC Daugavpils have a similar squad value (both €2m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RIG (10)
€7m
RF (15)
€6m
AUD (11)
€3m
FL (7)
€2m
SN (8)
€1m
FJ (8)
€1m
TUK (7)
€1m
BD (7)
€1m
M/L (1)
€0m
Tukums and BFC Daugavpils have a similar attack value (both €1m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RIG (5)
€3m
RF (4)
€2m
SN (6)
€1m
FL (4)
€1m
BD (6)
€1m
FJ (5)
€0m
AUD (3)
€0m
TUK (3)
€0m
M/L (1)
€0m
Tukums and BFC Daugavpils have a similar midfield value (both €0m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RIG (12)
€6m
RF (10)
€3m
AUD (11)
€3m
FL (10)
€2m
FJ (10)
€1m
TUK (10)
€1m
BD (8)
€1m
SN (10)
€1m
M/L (2)
€0m
Tukums and BFC Daugavpils have a similar defence value (both €1m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

7 previous meetings
1
TUK wins
2
Draws
4
BD wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Tukums vs BFC Daugavpils · H/A from TUK
DateH/AGameScore
26/06/23ABFC Daugavpils Vs TUK3-1
03/05/23ABFC Daugavpils Vs TUK3-3
12/03/23HTUK Vs BFC Daugavpils1-0
10/09/22ABFC Daugavpils Vs TUK0-0
26/06/22HTUK Vs BFC Daugavpils0-1
30/04/22HTUK Vs BFC Daugavpils0-1
13/03/22ABFC Daugavpils Vs TUK2-1

TukumsTukums

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
26/08/23AFS Jelgava Vs TUK2-0
12/08/23HTUK Vs Auda2-2
05/08/23HTUK Vs FK Liepaja1-2
29/07/23ARīgas FS Vs TUK7-0
23/07/23HTUK Vs Riga0-6
07/07/23AValmiera / BSS Vs TUK6-0
03/07/23HTUK Vs Metta / LU1-1
30/06/23ASuper Nova Vs TUK2-5
26/06/23ABFC Daugavpils Vs TUK3-1
10/06/23HTUK Vs FS Jelgava2-0

BFC DaugavpilsBFC Daugavpils

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
27/08/23HBD Vs Auda0-2
12/08/23AFK Liepaja Vs BD2-1
08/08/23HBD Vs Rīgas FS0-1
30/07/23ARiga Vs BD3-0
22/07/23AValmiera / BSS Vs BD0-1
10/07/23AMetta / LU Vs BD0-0
05/07/23HBD Vs Super Nova2-0
30/06/23HBD Vs FS Jelgava1-1
26/06/23HBD Vs Tukums3-1
10/06/23AAuda Vs BD1-1

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Tukums
Tukums
Latvia: Virsliga
Recent: 2 Wins / 2 Draws / 6 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLLLDL1.08
HomeWDLLD1.16
AwayLWLLL1.00
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %30%32%28%
AVG goals3.382.724.04
Over 1.5 %84%80%88%
Over 2.5 %64%48%80%
Over 3.5 %40%20%60%
Scored1.261.041.48
Conceded2.121.682.56
BTTS52%40%64%
Clean Sheet20%28%12%
Corners---
Cards---
BFC Daugavpils
BFC Daugavpils
Latvia: Virsliga
Recent: 3 Wins / 3 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWLLLL0.88
HomeWDWLL1.08
AwayDDWLL0.68
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %22%24%20%
AVG goals2.782.882.68
Over 1.5 %76%84%68%
Over 2.5 %48%44%52%
Over 3.5 %32%32%32%
Scored1.061.280.84
Conceded1.721.601.84
BTTS50%60%40%
Clean Sheet16%16%16%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Rīgas FSRīgas FS3689
75%
2.5
9618+78
3.2
69%
56%
42%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
11
6232.70.5
-
2RigaRiga3688
75%
2.4
8921+68
3.1
81%
56%
42%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
16
7362.50.6
-
3AudaAuda3658
44%
1.6
4439+5
2.3
72%
33%
22%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
3031.21.1
-
4Valmiera / BSSValmiera / BSS3653
39%
1.5
4740+7
2.4
67%
42%
22%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.31.1
-
5FK LiepajaFK Liepaja3651
39%
1.4
5254-2
2.9
89%
56%
28%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
2121.41.5
-
6FS JelgavaFS Jelgava3640
28%
1.1
4257-15
2.8
75%
47%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1011.21.6
-
7Metta / LUMetta / LU3839
26%
1.0
4965-16
3.0
76%
53%
39%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.31.7
-
8BFC DaugavpilsBFC Daugavpils3636
25%
1.0
4052-12
2.6
69%
44%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1111.11.4
-
9TukumsTukums3635
25%
1.0
4783-36
3.6
78%
61%
47%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.32.3
-
10Super NovaSuper Nova3614
8%
0.4
2596-71
3.4
86%
56%
44%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1110.72.7
-
11SkansteSkanste20
0%
0.0
28-6
5.0
100%
100%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.04.0
-
Latvia: Virsliga 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Latvia: Virsliga stats & trends →

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