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Tukums vs FK Liepaja Result & Analysis

Date: 05/08/2023
Time: 15:00
Final 1-2
Tukums
Tukums
Vs
16%
21%
63%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
FK Liepaja
FK Liepaja
Latvia: Virsliga
Referee: -

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Tukums win✗ Miss
16.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
21.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
FK Liepaja win✓ Hit
62.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

TukumsTukums

Last 10 – goals for & against
70-732W10W22D20W13L52W11D06L06L07LH·SUP27/05A·FK 01/06H·AUD06/06H·FS 10/06A·BFC26/06A·SUP30/06H·MET03/07A·VAL07/07H·RIG23/07A·RĪG29/07
Avg total
4.4
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
2.9
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.302.471.002.001.602.93
vs Stronger (17)0.883.060.502.881.223.22
vs Similar (13)1.851.691.571.002.172.50
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %20% (-8pp vs league)
This opponent (FK Liepaja) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

FK LiepajaFK Liepaja

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-301L21W21W32W11D13L11D23L11D11DH·TUK01/06A·BFC05/06H·SUP09/06H·MET25/06A·VAL29/06A·RIG04/07H·RĪG08/07A·FS 21/07A·MET26/07A·AUD30/07
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.671.471.471.671.871.27
vs Stronger (7)0.292.290.252.750.331.67
vs Similar (11)1.551.000.751.252.000.86
vs Weaker (12)2.581.422.571.292.601.60
Clean sheet %17% (-12pp vs league)
This opponent (Tukums) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%11%17%22%4%010%121%222%318%412%512%6+
The model estimates around 3.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
85.3%
Under 1.5
14.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
64.5%
Under 2.5
35.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
42.4%
Under 3.5
57.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
60.0%
No
40.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-2 ✓
9.8%
1-1
9.6%
0-2
9.0%
1-3
7.3%
0-1
7.2%
0-3
6.7%
2-2
5.3%
2-1
4.7%
Tukums goals ↓
FK Liepaja goals →
01234
04.5%7.2%9.0%6.7%3.8%
13.0%9.6%9.8%7.3%4.1%
22.1%4.7%5.3%4.0%2.2%
30.8%1.7%1.9%1.4%0.8%
40.2%0.5%0.5%0.4%0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Tukums goals (down), columns = FK Liepaja goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Rīgas FS
2.47
Riga
2.44
Auda
1.61
Valmiera / BSS
1.47
FK Liepaja
1.42
FS Jelgava
1.11
Metta / LU
1.03
BFC Daugavpils
1.00
Tukums
0.97
Super Nova
0.39
Skanste
0.00
Tukums is 0.44 points worse than FK Liepaja in terms of average points per game (0.97 vs 1.42).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Rīgas FS
2.67
Riga
2.47
FK Liepaja
1.44
Valmiera / BSS
1.31
Tukums
1.31
Metta / LU
1.29
Auda
1.22
FS Jelgava
1.17
BFC Daugavpils
1.11
Skanste
1.00
Super Nova
0.69
Tukums is 0.14 goals worse than FK Liepaja in terms of goals scored per game (1.31 vs 1.44).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Rīgas FS
0.50
Riga
0.58
Auda
1.08
Valmiera / BSS
1.11
BFC Daugavpils
1.44
FK Liepaja
1.50
FS Jelgava
1.58
Metta / LU
1.71
Tukums
2.31
Super Nova
2.67
Skanste
4.00
Tukums is 0.81 goals worse than FK Liepaja in terms of goals conceded per game (2.31 vs 1.50).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

TukumsTukums

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
50-520W00D12L00D12L31W01L03L03L05LH·SUP27/05A·FK 01/06H·AUD06/06H·FS 10/06A·BFC26/06A·SUP30/06H·MET03/07A·VAL07/07H·RIG23/07A·RĪG29/07
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.501.230.400.930.601.53
vs Stronger (17)0.351.530.381.500.331.56
vs Similar (13)0.690.850.430.291.001.50
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %33% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (FK Liepaja) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

FK LiepajaFK Liepaja

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D21W21W10W10W01L01L11D10W01LH·TUK01/06A·BFC05/06H·SUP09/06H·MET25/06A·VAL29/06A·RIG04/07H·RĪG08/07A·FS 21/07A·MET26/07A·AUD30/07
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.770.570.730.670.800.47
vs Stronger (7)0.001.000.001.500.000.33
vs Similar (11)0.820.270.500.001.000.43
vs Weaker (12)1.170.581.290.571.000.60
Clean sheet %57% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Tukums) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Tukums over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tukums over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tukums over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Liepaja over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Liepaja over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Liepaja over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

TukumsTukums

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-312L10W10W20W01L21W10W03L03L02LH·SUP27/05A·FK 01/06H·AUD06/06H·FS 10/06A·BFC26/06A·SUP30/06H·MET03/07A·VAL07/07H·RIG23/07A·RĪG29/07
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.2
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.801.230.601.071.001.40
vs Stronger (17)0.531.530.121.380.891.67
vs Similar (13)1.150.851.140.711.171.00
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %27% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (FK Liepaja) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

FK LiepajaFK Liepaja

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-201L00D00D22D01L12L10W12L01L10WH·TUK01/06A·BFC05/06H·SUP09/06H·MET25/06A·VAL29/06A·RIG04/07H·RĪG08/07A·FS 21/07A·MET26/07A·AUD30/07
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.900.900.731.001.070.80
vs Stronger (7)0.291.290.251.250.331.33
vs Similar (11)0.730.730.251.251.000.43
vs Weaker (12)1.420.831.290.711.601.00
Clean sheet %40% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (Tukums) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Tukums over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tukums over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tukums over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Liepaja over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Liepaja over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Liepaja over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.585.3%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RIG (27)
€16m
RF (29)
€11m
AUD (25)
€6m
FL (21)
€5m
SN (24)
€3m
FJ (23)
€3m
BD (21)
€3m
TUK (20)
€2m
M/L (4)
€0m
Tukums's squad is €3m less valuable than FK Liepaja's (€2m vs €5m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RIG (10)
€7m
RF (15)
€6m
AUD (11)
€3m
FL (7)
€2m
SN (8)
€1m
FJ (8)
€1m
TUK (7)
€1m
BD (7)
€1m
M/L (1)
€0m
Tukums's attack is €1m less valuable than FK Liepaja's (€1m vs €2m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RIG (5)
€3m
RF (4)
€2m
SN (6)
€1m
FL (4)
€1m
BD (6)
€1m
FJ (5)
€0m
AUD (3)
€0m
TUK (3)
€0m
M/L (1)
€0m
Tukums and FK Liepaja have a similar midfield value (both €0m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RIG (12)
€6m
RF (10)
€3m
AUD (11)
€3m
FL (10)
€2m
FJ (10)
€1m
TUK (10)
€1m
BD (8)
€1m
SN (10)
€1m
M/L (2)
€0m
Tukums and FK Liepaja have a similar defence value (both €1m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

6 previous meetings
3
TUK wins
0
Draws
3
FL wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Tukums vs FK Liepaja · H/A from TUK
DateH/AGameScore
01/06/23AFK Liepaja Vs TUK0-1
18/04/23HTUK Vs FK Liepaja0-3
30/10/22AFK Liepaja Vs TUK4-1
20/08/22HTUK Vs FK Liepaja2-1
22/06/22AFK Liepaja Vs TUK1-2
19/04/22HTUK Vs FK Liepaja1-4

TukumsTukums

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
29/07/23ARīgas FS Vs TUK7-0
23/07/23HTUK Vs Riga0-6
07/07/23AValmiera / BSS Vs TUK6-0
03/07/23HTUK Vs Metta / LU1-1
30/06/23ASuper Nova Vs TUK2-5
26/06/23ABFC Daugavpils Vs TUK3-1
10/06/23HTUK Vs FS Jelgava2-0
06/06/23HTUK Vs Auda2-2
01/06/23AFK Liepaja Vs TUK0-1
27/05/23HTUK Vs Super Nova3-2

FK LiepajaFK Liepaja

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
30/07/23AAuda Vs FL1-1
26/07/23AMetta / LU Vs FL1-1
21/07/23AFS Jelgava Vs FL3-2
08/07/23HFL Vs Rīgas FS1-1
04/07/23ARiga Vs FL3-1
29/06/23AValmiera / BSS Vs FL1-1
25/06/23HFL Vs Metta / LU3-2
09/06/23HFL Vs Super Nova2-1
05/06/23ABFC Daugavpils Vs FL1-2
01/06/23HFL Vs Tukums0-1

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Tukums
Tukums
Latvia: Virsliga
Recent: 4 Wins / 2 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWDLLL1.14
HomeWDWDL1.28
AwayWLWLL1.00
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %32%36%28%
AVG goals3.362.644.08
Over 1.5 %84%80%88%
Over 2.5 %64%44%84%
Over 3.5 %38%16%60%
Scored1.261.041.48
Conceded2.101.602.60
BTTS52%40%64%
Clean Sheet20%28%12%
Corners---
Cards---
FK Liepaja
FK Liepaja
Latvia: Virsliga
Recent: 3 Wins / 4 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLDLDD1.48
HomeLLWWD1.48
AwayDLLDD1.48
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %42%44%40%
AVG goals3.043.003.08
Over 1.5 %82%80%84%
Over 2.5 %62%60%64%
Over 3.5 %34%32%36%
Scored1.581.521.64
Conceded1.461.481.44
BTTS62%60%64%
Clean Sheet18%16%20%
Corners9.5010.508.50
Cards4.004.503.50

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Rīgas FSRīgas FS3689
75%
2.5
9618+78
3.2
69%
56%
42%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
11
6232.70.5
-
2RigaRiga3688
75%
2.4
8921+68
3.1
81%
56%
42%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
16
7362.50.6
-
3AudaAuda3658
44%
1.6
4439+5
2.3
72%
33%
22%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
3031.21.1
-
4Valmiera / BSSValmiera / BSS3653
39%
1.5
4740+7
2.4
67%
42%
22%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.31.1
-
5FK LiepajaFK Liepaja3651
39%
1.4
5254-2
2.9
89%
56%
28%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
2121.41.5
-
6FS JelgavaFS Jelgava3640
28%
1.1
4257-15
2.8
75%
47%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1011.21.6
-
7Metta / LUMetta / LU3839
26%
1.0
4965-16
3.0
76%
53%
39%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.31.7
-
8BFC DaugavpilsBFC Daugavpils3636
25%
1.0
4052-12
2.6
69%
44%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1111.11.4
-
9TukumsTukums3635
25%
1.0
4783-36
3.6
78%
61%
47%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.32.3
-
10Super NovaSuper Nova3614
8%
0.4
2596-71
3.4
86%
56%
44%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1110.72.7
-
11SkansteSkanste20
0%
0.0
28-6
5.0
100%
100%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.04.0
-
Latvia: Virsliga 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Latvia: Virsliga stats & trends →

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