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Tukums vs Riga Result & Analysis

Date: 16/04/2024
Time: 14:30
Final 2-1
Tukums
Tukums
Vs
16%
24%
60%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Riga
Riga
Latvia: Virsliga
Referee: -

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Tukums win✓ Hit
15.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
24.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Riga win✗ Miss
60.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

TukumsTukums

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-545L01L01L00D20W32W13L20W00D05LH·RĪG21/10A·FK 28/10A·AUD05/11H·FS 11/11A·FK 09/03A·FS 17/03A·BFC30/03H·GRO04/04H·MET08/04A·RĪG12/04
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.302.131.601.471.002.80
vs Stronger (17)1.062.821.752.380.443.22
vs Similar (13)1.621.231.430.431.832.17
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %30% (+2pp vs league)
This opponent (Riga) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

RigaRiga

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-420W11D31W11D10W10W12L40W20W20WA·BFC21/10H·SUP29/10A·MET05/11A·VAL11/11A·GRO10/03H·AUD16/03A·VAL31/03H·FK 04/04H·FS 08/04H·BFC12/04
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.8
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game2.030.832.180.821.850.85
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (4)0.501.751.002.500.001.00
vs Weaker (26)2.270.692.330.602.180.82
Clean sheet %50% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Tukums) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%13%19%25%8%016%125%222%315%48%56%6+
The model estimates around 2.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
76.8%
Under 1.5
23.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
51.5%
Under 2.5
48.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
29.4%
Under 3.5
70.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
50.0%
No
50.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.5%
0-2
11.4%
0-1
11.1%
1-2
9.8%
0-0
7.5%
0-3
7.1%
1-3
6.1%
1-0
4.5%
Tukums goals ↓
Riga goals →
01234
07.5%11%11%7.1%3.3%
14.5%12%9.8%6.1%2.9%
22.4%4.5%4.2%2.6%1.2%
30.7%1.3%1.2%0.8%0.4%
40.2%0.3%0.3%0.2%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Tukums goals (down), columns = Riga goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Rīgas FS
2.50
Riga
2.42
Valmiera / BSS
1.78
Auda
1.67
BFC Daugavpils
1.17
FK Liepaja
1.08
Metta / LU
1.00
Tukums
0.97
Grobiņa
0.81
FS Jelgava
0.69
Tukums is 1.44 points worse than Riga in terms of average points per game (0.97 vs 2.42).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Rīgas FS
2.86
Riga
2.75
Valmiera / BSS
2.08
Auda
1.75
BFC Daugavpils
1.19
Tukums
1.06
FK Liepaja
1.03
Grobiņa
0.94
Metta / LU
0.94
FS Jelgava
0.78
Tukums is 1.69 goals worse than Riga in terms of goals scored per game (1.06 vs 2.75).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Riga
0.64
Rīgas FS
0.69
Auda
0.94
Valmiera / BSS
1.08
FK Liepaja
1.56
BFC Daugavpils
1.67
Metta / LU
2.11
Grobiņa
2.17
Tukums
2.25
FS Jelgava
2.28
Tukums is 1.61 goals worse than Riga in terms of goals conceded per game (2.25 vs 0.64).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

TukumsTukums

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-311D01L01L00D00D21W01L10W00D03LH·RĪG21/10A·FK 28/10A·AUD05/11H·FS 11/11A·FK 09/03A·FS 17/03A·BFC30/03H·GRO04/04H·MET08/04A·RĪG12/04
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.501.100.600.730.401.47
vs Stronger (17)0.291.530.621.250.001.78
vs Similar (13)0.770.540.570.141.001.00
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %37% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (Riga) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

RigaRiga

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D01L20W00D10W00D10W20W00D10WA·BFC21/10H·SUP29/10A·MET05/11A·VAL11/11A·GRO10/03H·AUD16/03A·VAL31/03H·FK 04/04H·FS 08/04H·BFC12/04
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.1
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.800.330.820.410.770.23
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (4)0.250.750.501.000.000.50
vs Weaker (26)0.880.270.870.330.910.18
Clean sheet %77% (+48pp vs league)
This opponent (Tukums) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Tukums over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tukums over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tukums over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Riga over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Riga over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Riga over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

TukumsTukums

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-434L00D00D00D20W11D12L10W00D02LH·RĪG21/10A·FK 28/10A·AUD05/11H·FS 11/11A·FK 09/03A·FS 17/03A·BFC30/03H·GRO04/04H·MET08/04A·RĪG12/04
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.801.031.000.730.601.33
vs Stronger (17)0.761.291.121.120.441.44
vs Similar (13)0.850.690.860.290.831.17
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %47% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Riga) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

RigaRiga

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-220W10W11D11D00D10W02L20W20W10WA·BFC21/10H·SUP29/10A·MET05/11A·VAL11/11A·GRO10/03H·AUD16/03A·VAL31/03H·FK 04/04H·FS 08/04H·BFC12/04
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.4
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.230.501.350.411.080.62
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (4)0.251.000.501.500.000.50
vs Weaker (26)1.380.421.470.271.270.64
Clean sheet %67% (+38pp vs league)
This opponent (Tukums) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Tukums over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tukums over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tukums over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Riga over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Riga over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Riga over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.576.8%-------✓ Hit
Under 3.570.6%-------✓ Hit

🎽 13. Player market rates

Riga · 2023/24
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Ngonda Muzinga33%
Mouhamed El Bachir Ngom33%
Anthony Contreras25%
Gauthier Mankenda25%
Mikael Soisalo0%
Petar Bosančić0%
Douglas Aurélio0%
Miloš Jojić0%
Antonijs Černomordijs0%
Abdulrahman Taiwo0%
Raivis Jurkovskis0%
Nils Purins0%
Marko Regža0%
Hrvoje Babec0%
Eduards Daskevics0%
Baba Musah0%
Brian Peña0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Antonijs Černomordijs50%
Baba Musah50%
Ngonda Muzinga33%
Anthony Contreras25%
Petar Bosančić25%
Abdulrahman Taiwo25%
Gauthier Mankenda25%
Mikael Soisalo0%
Douglas Aurélio0%
Miloš Jojić0%
Raivis Jurkovskis0%
Nils Purins0%
Marko Regža0%
Hrvoje Babec0%
Eduards Daskevics0%
Mouhamed El Bachir Ngom0%
Brian Peña0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Ngonda Muzinga33%
Douglas Aurélio25%
Gauthier Mankenda25%
Mikael Soisalo0%
Anthony Contreras0%
Petar Bosančić0%
Miloš Jojić0%
Antonijs Černomordijs0%
Abdulrahman Taiwo0%
Raivis Jurkovskis0%
Nils Purins0%
Marko Regža0%
Hrvoje Babec0%
Eduards Daskevics0%
Baba Musah0%
Mouhamed El Bachir Ngom0%
Brian Peña0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Anthony Contreras25%
Antonijs Černomordijs25%
Baba Musah25%
Ngonda Muzinga0%
Mikael Soisalo0%
Petar Bosančić0%
Douglas Aurélio0%
Miloš Jojić0%
Abdulrahman Taiwo0%
Raivis Jurkovskis0%
Nils Purins0%
Marko Regža0%
Gauthier Mankenda0%
Hrvoje Babec0%
Eduards Daskevics0%
Mouhamed El Bachir Ngom0%
Brian Peña0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RIG (27)
€16m
RF (29)
€11m
AUD (25)
€6m
FL (21)
€5m
GRO (25)
€3m
FJ (23)
€3m
BD (21)
€3m
TUK (20)
€2m
M/L (4)
€0m
Tukums's squad is €13m less valuable than Riga's (€2m vs €16m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RIG (10)
€7m
RF (15)
€6m
AUD (11)
€3m
FL (7)
€2m
GRO (10)
€1m
FJ (8)
€1m
TUK (7)
€1m
BD (7)
€1m
M/L (1)
€0m
Tukums's attack is €6m less valuable than Riga's (€1m vs €7m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RIG (5)
€3m
RF (4)
€2m
FL (4)
€1m
BD (6)
€1m
GRO (6)
€1m
FJ (5)
€0m
AUD (3)
€0m
TUK (3)
€0m
M/L (1)
€0m
Tukums's midfield is €2m less valuable than Riga's (€0m vs €3m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RIG (12)
€6m
RF (10)
€3m
AUD (11)
€3m
FL (10)
€2m
FJ (10)
€1m
GRO (9)
€1m
TUK (10)
€1m
BD (8)
€1m
M/L (2)
€0m
Tukums's defence is €5m less valuable than Riga's (€1m vs €6m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

8 previous meetings
0
TUK wins
0
Draws
8
RIG wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Tukums vs Riga · H/A from TUK
DateH/AGameScore
06/10/23ARiga Vs TUK4-0
23/07/23HTUK Vs Riga0-6
21/05/23ARiga Vs TUK5-1
10/04/23HTUK Vs Riga0-2
06/11/22HTUK Vs Riga0-2
28/08/22ARiga Vs TUK3-1
18/06/22HTUK Vs Riga0-1
23/04/22ARiga Vs TUK1-0

TukumsTukums

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
12/04/24ARīgas FS Vs TUK5-0
08/04/24HTUK Vs Metta / LU0-0
04/04/24HTUK Vs Grobiņa2-0
30/03/24ABFC Daugavpils Vs TUK3-1
17/03/24AFS Jelgava Vs TUK2-3
09/03/24AFK Liepaja Vs TUK0-2
11/11/23HTUK Vs FS Jelgava0-0
05/11/23AAuda Vs TUK1-0
28/10/23AFK Liepaja Vs TUK1-0
21/10/23HTUK Vs Rīgas FS4-5

RigaRiga

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
12/04/24HRIG Vs BFC Daugavpils2-0
08/04/24HRIG Vs FS Jelgava2-0
04/04/24HRIG Vs FK Liepaja4-0
31/03/24AValmiera / BSS Vs RIG2-1
16/03/24HRIG Vs Auda1-0
10/03/24AGrobiņa Vs RIG0-1
11/11/23AValmiera / BSS Vs RIG1-1
05/11/23AMetta / LU Vs RIG1-3
29/10/23HRIG Vs Super Nova1-1
21/10/23ABFC Daugavpils Vs RIG0-2

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Tukums
Tukums
Latvia: Virsliga
Recent: 3 Wins / 2 Draws / 5 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWLWDL1.12
HomeWLDWD1.36
AwayLWWLL0.88
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %30%36%24%
AVG goals3.402.923.88
Over 1.5 %80%76%84%
Over 2.5 %58%48%68%
Over 3.5 %44%28%60%
Scored1.301.281.32
Conceded2.101.642.56
BTTS48%44%52%
Clean Sheet26%40%12%
Corners---
Cards---
Riga
Riga
Latvia: Virsliga
Recent: 7 Wins / 2 Draws / 1 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWLWWW2.24
HomeDWWWW2.42
AwayWWDWL2.04
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %70%77%62%
AVG goals2.803.042.54
Over 1.5 %78%81%75%
Over 2.5 %50%58%42%
Over 3.5 %32%35%29%
Scored2.142.311.96
Conceded0.660.730.58
BTTS36%38%33%
Clean Sheet54%54%54%
Corners12.0012.6711.33
Cards3.503.004.00

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Rīgas FSRīgas FS3690
81%
2.5
10325+78
3.6
92%
75%
44%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
11
6232.90.7
-
2RigaRiga3687
75%
2.4
9923+76
3.4
81%
61%
39%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
16
7362.80.6
-
3Valmiera / BSSValmiera / BSS3664
53%
1.8
7539+36
3.2
78%
61%
42%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.11.1
-
4AudaAuda3660
50%
1.7
6334+29
2.7
75%
58%
31%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
3031.80.9
-
5BFC DaugavpilsBFC Daugavpils3642
31%
1.2
4360-17
2.9
72%
53%
36%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1111.21.7
-
6FK LiepajaFK Liepaja3639
28%
1.1
3756-19
2.6
75%
50%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
2121.01.6
-
7Metta / LUMetta / LU3636
28%
1.0
3476-42
3.1
83%
61%
36%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.92.1
-
8TukumsTukums3635
25%
1.0
3881-43
3.3
81%
67%
39%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.12.2
-
9GrobiņaGrobiņa3629
22%
0.8
3478-44
3.1
89%
61%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1110.92.2
-
10FS JelgavaFS Jelgava3625
17%
0.7
2882-54
3.1
75%
58%
36%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1010.82.3
-
Latvia: Virsliga 2024/25 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Latvia: Virsliga stats & trends →

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