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Uni Minsk vs Bumprom Result & Analysis

Date: 01/08/2026
Time: 16:30
Final 1-1
Uni Minsk
Uni Minsk
Vs
34%
26%
40%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Bumprom
Bumprom
Belarus: 1. Division
Referee: -
Match preview & prediction

This matchup between Uni Minsk and Bumprom in the Belarus: 1. Division is finely balanced, with Uni Minsk coming off a win against Smorgon but Bumprom also having a recent win against BATE II. The model's selection is the away win, with a 40% probability, closely followed by a 34% chance of a home win and 26% chance of a draw. The expected total number of goals is 3.1, but the most likely score is 1-1 with a 22% probability. Uni Minsk's home form is relatively poor, with an average of 1.62 goals scored and 2 conceded against stronger opponents. Meanwhile, Bumprom's away form is impressive, with 1.5 goals scored and just 0.25 conceded against weaker opponents. The model also suggests Over 1.5 goals with a high 83.2% probability, an edge of 34.6%, and is likely to hit. The percentages for each outcome are: home win 34%, draw 26%, and away win 40%.

Results analysis

The draw extends Uni Minsk's recent run of coming off a win, having beaten Smorgon 2-0 in their last outing. However, the real story here is the upset, as Bumprom's win extends their own run of coming off a win, having defeated BATE II 2-1. The pre-match favourite, Uni Minsk, failed to come through, with the model's selection, Bumprom away win, proving incorrect. The model's call was wrong, as Uni Minsk's 0.34 probability of winning was the lowest of the three possible outcomes. Meanwhile, the model's selection of Bumprom away win had a 40% chance of success, which did not materialise. The suggested pick, Over 1.5, hit, with a probability of 83.2% and the final score being 1-1.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Uni Minsk win✗ Miss
34.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✓ Hit
25.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Bumprom win✗ Miss
40.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

Uni MinskUni Minsk

Last 10 – goals for & against
60-626L30W30W35L23L03L22D24L26L12LH·BAR28/09A·GOM05/10H·VOL10/10A·OST18/10H·MIN25/10H·LID31/10H·LOK08/11H·SLO16/11H·BEL23/11A·MIN26/07
Avg total
5.1
Avg scored
2.0
Avg conceded
3.1
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.632.031.802.201.471.87
vs Stronger (16)1.252.381.712.710.892.11
vs Similar (8)1.751.751.401.202.332.67
vs Weaker (6)2.501.502.672.672.330.33
Clean sheet %20% (-6pp vs league)
This opponent (Bumprom) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

BumpromBumprom

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-403L21W02L30W40W13L40W22D11D01LA·LOK04/10H·SLO11/10A·BEL18/10H·DIN26/10H·ORS02/11A·FC 08/11H·BAT16/11A·NIV23/11A·GOM12/07H·MOL26/07
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
1.3
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.671.072.070.931.271.20
vs Stronger (2)0.501.501.000.000.003.00
vs Similar (20)1.651.252.001.101.301.40
vs Weaker (8)2.000.502.500.751.500.25
Clean sheet %33% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (Uni Minsk) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%11%17%22%5%011%122%222%318%411%510%6+
The model estimates around 3.1 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
83.2%
Under 1.5
16.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
60.9%
Under 2.5
39.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
38.5%
Under 3.5
61.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
63.8%
No
36.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1 ✓
11.7%
1-2
8.7%
2-1
8.0%
2-2
6.6%
0-1
6.0%
0-2
5.8%
1-0
5.4%
0-0
5.4%
Uni Minsk goals ↓
Bumprom goals →
01234
05.4%6.0%5.8%3.2%1.3%
15.4%12%8.7%4.8%2.0%
24.9%8.0%6.6%3.6%1.5%
32.4%4.0%3.3%1.8%0.7%
40.9%1.5%1.2%0.7%0.3%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Uni Minsk goals (down), columns = Bumprom goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Niva
3.00
Molodechno-DYuSSh 4
2.60
Minsk II
2.40
Osipovichy
2.00
Smorgon
1.80
Lida
1.80
Orsha
1.40
Bumprom
1.33
Volna
1.33
Ostrovets FC
1.20
Uni Minsk
1.20
Slonim
1.20
Shakhter Soligorsk
1.17
FC Slutsk
1.00
FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk
0.80
Gomel II
0.67
BATE II
0.60
Dinamo Minsk II
0.20
Uni Minsk is 0.13 points worse than Bumprom in terms of average points per game (1.20 vs 1.33).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Niva
2.80
Molodechno-DYuSSh 4
2.40
Volna
2.33
Minsk II
2.20
Lida
2.00
Shakhter Soligorsk
1.83
Slonim
1.60
Bumprom
1.50
FC Slutsk
1.40
BATE II
1.40
Osipovichy
1.40
Ostrovets FC
1.20
Smorgon
1.20
Orsha
1.20
Gomel II
1.00
FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk
0.80
Uni Minsk
0.80
Dinamo Minsk II
0.60
Uni Minsk is 0.70 goals worse than Bumprom in terms of goals scored per game (0.80 vs 1.50).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Molodechno-DYuSSh 4
0.40
Uni Minsk
0.60
Osipovichy
0.80
Minsk II
1.00
Smorgon
1.00
Niva
1.00
FC Slutsk
1.20
Bumprom
1.33
FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk
1.60
Orsha
1.60
Lida
1.80
Slonim
1.80
Ostrovets FC
2.00
Dinamo Minsk II
2.00
Gomel II
2.17
Volna
2.17
BATE II
2.20
Shakhter Soligorsk
2.67
Uni Minsk is 0.73 goals better than Bumprom in terms of goals conceded per game (0.60 vs 1.33).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🔢 6. Odd / Even

🥅 7. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 8. Handicap

🔥 9. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.583.2%-------✓ Hit

💰 10. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
UM (32)
€2m
FS (25)
€2m
NIV (24)
€2m
SMO (28)
€2m
BUM (23)
€2m
DMI (36)
€1m
M4 (27)
€1m
VOL (22)
€1m
OF (22)
€1m
MI (31)
€1m
LID (24)
€1m
SLO (30)
€1m
BI (28)
€1m
ORS (25)
€1m
OSI (24)
€1m
GI (26)
€1m
Uni Minsk and Bumprom have a similar squad value (both €2m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BI (0)
€0m
BUM (0)
€0m
DMI (0)
€0m
FS (0)
€0m
GI (0)
€0m
LID (0)
€0m
MI (0)
€0m
M4 (0)
€0m
NIV (0)
€0m
ORS (0)
€0m
OSI (0)
€0m
OF (0)
€0m
SLO (0)
€0m
SMO (0)
€0m
UM (0)
€0m
VOL (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BI (0)
€0m
BUM (0)
€0m
DMI (0)
€0m
FS (0)
€0m
GI (0)
€0m
LID (0)
€0m
MI (0)
€0m
M4 (0)
€0m
NIV (0)
€0m
ORS (0)
€0m
OSI (0)
€0m
OF (0)
€0m
SLO (0)
€0m
SMO (0)
€0m
UM (0)
€0m
VOL (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BI (0)
€0m
BUM (0)
€0m
DMI (0)
€0m
FS (0)
€0m
GI (0)
€0m
LID (0)
€0m
MI (0)
€0m
M4 (0)
€0m
NIV (0)
€0m
ORS (0)
€0m
OSI (0)
€0m
OF (0)
€0m
SLO (0)
€0m
SMO (0)
€0m
UM (0)
€0m
VOL (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 11. Games History

Head-to-head

Uni Minsk vs Bumprom · H/A from UM
DateH/AGameScore
10/08/25HUM Vs Bumprom0-0
06/04/25ABumprom Vs UM1-1

Uni MinskUni Minsk

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
26/07/26AMinsk II Vs UM2-1
23/11/25HUM Vs Belshina2-6
16/11/25HUM Vs Slonim2-4
08/11/25HUM Vs Lokomotiv Gomel2-2
31/10/25HUM Vs Lida0-3
25/10/25HUM Vs Minsk II2-3
18/10/25AOstrovets FC Vs UM5-3
10/10/25HUM Vs Volna3-0
05/10/25AGomel II Vs UM0-3
28/09/25HUM Vs Baranovichi2-6

BumpromBumprom

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
26/07/26HBUM Vs Molodechno-DYuSSh 40-1
12/07/26AGomel II Vs BUM1-1
23/11/25ANiva Vs BUM2-2
16/11/25HBUM Vs BATE II4-0
08/11/25AFC Dnepr Mogilev Vs BUM3-1
02/11/25HBUM Vs Orsha4-0
26/10/25HBUM Vs Dinamo Minsk II3-0
18/10/25ABelshina Vs BUM2-0
11/10/25HBUM Vs Slonim2-1
04/10/25ALokomotiv Gomel Vs BUM3-0

📊 12. Overall Statistics

Uni Minsk
Uni Minsk
Belarus: 1. Division
Recent: 2 Wins / 1 Draws / 7 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLDLLL1.03
HomeLLDLL1.06
AwayWLWLL1.00
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %29%29%28%
AVG goals3.693.943.44
Over 1.5 %94%88%100%
Over 2.5 %77%82%72%
Over 3.5 %40%47%33%
Scored1.571.761.39
Conceded2.112.182.06
BTTS63%59%67%
Clean Sheet20%24%17%
Corners---
Cards---
Bumprom
Bumprom
Belarus: 1. Division
Recent: 4 Wins / 2 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLWDDL1.60
HomeWWWWL1.92
AwayLLLDD1.28
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %42%56%28%
AVG goals2.502.962.04
Over 1.5 %76%80%72%
Over 2.5 %44%56%32%
Over 3.5 %26%36%16%
Scored1.461.960.96
Conceded1.041.001.08
BTTS50%60%40%
Clean Sheet36%28%44%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 13. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1NivaNiva515
100%
3.0
145+9
3.8
100%
80%
20%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
0002.81.0
-
2Molodechno-DYuSSh 4Molodechno-DYuSSh 4513
80%
2.6
122+10
2.8
80%
80%
20%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0002.40.4
-
3Minsk IIMinsk II512
80%
2.4
115+6
3.2
80%
80%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0002.21.0
-
4OsipovichyOsipovichy510
60%
2.0
74+3
2.2
80%
40%
20%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.40.8
-
5LidaLida59
60%
1.8
109+1
3.8
100%
100%
60%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0002.01.8
-
6SmorgonSmorgon59
60%
1.8
65+1
2.2
100%
20%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
0001.21.0
-
7VolnaVolna68
33%
1.3
1413+1
4.5
83%
83%
83%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0002.32.2
-
8BumpromBumprom68
33%
1.3
98+1
2.8
83%
50%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
0001.51.3
-
9OrshaOrsha57
40%
1.4
68-2
2.8
80%
80%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.21.6
-
10Shakhter SoligorskShakhter Soligorsk67
33%
1.2
1116-5
4.5
83%
83%
83%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.82.7
-
11Uni MinskUni Minsk56
20%
1.2
43+1
1.4
60%
20%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
0000.80.6
-
12SlonimSlonim56
40%
1.2
89-1
3.4
100%
60%
60%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.61.8
-
13Ostrovets FCOstrovets FC56
40%
1.2
610-4
3.2
100%
60%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.22.0
-
14FC SlutskFC Slutsk55
20%
1.0
76+1
2.6
80%
80%
20%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
0001.41.2
-
15FC Energetik-Bgu MinskFC Energetik-Bgu Minsk54
20%
0.8
48-4
2.4
60%
60%
20%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.81.6
-
16Gomel IIGomel II64
17%
0.7
613-7
3.2
100%
67%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.02.2
-
17BATE IIBATE II53
20%
0.6
711-4
3.6
80%
60%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.42.2
-
18Dinamo Minsk IIDinamo Minsk II51
0%
0.2
310-7
2.6
80%
80%
20%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0000.62.0
-
Belarus: 1. Division 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Belarus: 1. Division stats & trends →

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