The model favours an away win, with a 46 % chance for Molodechno-DYuSSh 4, a 29 % draw and a 25 % home win for Uni Minsk. The expected total is 2.5 goals, with the most likely total of two goals at 27 %. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, carrying a 13.8 % probability. Uni Minsk, playing at home against a similarly-matched opponent, averages 1.58 goals scored and 1.75 conceded, while Molodechno-DYuSSh 4, on the road, averages 0.89 scored and 1.56 conceded. The model’s suggested picks include Under 7.5 (99.6 %), Home under 2.5 HT goals (99.3 %), Under 6.5 (98.7 %), Home under 3.5 goals (98.0 %), Home under 2.5 2H goals (97.8 %), Under 5.5 (96.1 %), Away under 2.5 HT goals (94.9 %), and Away under 3.5 goals (94.2 %). Uni Minsk’s recent unbeaten run of five games, highlighted by a 4-0 win over Gomel II, contrasts with Molodechno-DYuSSh 4’s three-game winning streak and a 4-1 victory over Shakhter Soligorsk, setting the stage for a tightly contested match.
Results analysis
The match saw Uni Minsk struggle after a loss, while Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 continued a four-game winning streak. The model’s favourite, an Away win, proved correct as the final score was 0-1 in favour of the visitors. The model’s pre-match probability for an away victory was 46%. The model’s selections also performed well: Under 7.5 goals hit at 99.6%, Home under 2.5 HT goals at 99.2%, Under 6.5 at 98.7%, Home under 3.5 goals at 98.1%, Home under 2.5 2H goals at 97.9%, Under 5.5 at 96.1%, Away under 2.5 HT goals at 95.8% and Away under 3.5 goals at 94.1%. Each probability was expressed as a percentage and each selection’s result was noted.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Uni Minsk win✗ Miss
25.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
29.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 win✓ Hit
45.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Uni Minsk
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.2
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.70
1.77
1.87
1.93
1.53
1.60
vs Stronger (5)
1.00
2.00
2.00
2.00
0.75
2.00
vs Similar (20)
1.50
1.80
1.58
1.75
1.38
1.88
vs Weaker (5)
3.20
1.40
3.50
3.00
3.00
0.33
Clean sheet %
30% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (Molodechno-DYuSSh 4) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Molodechno-DYuSSh 4
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.07
1.57
1.18
1.41
0.92
1.77
vs Stronger (7)
1.14
2.14
1.25
2.00
1.00
2.33
vs Similar (21)
0.86
1.52
1.00
1.33
0.67
1.78
vs Weaker (2)
3.00
0.00
3.00
0.00
3.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
20% (-6pp vs league)
This opponent (Uni Minsk) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
71.5%
Under 1.5
28.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
44.4%
Under 2.5
55.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
23.2%
Under 3.5
76.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
49.7%
No
50.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.8%
0-1 ✓
11.2%
0-0
9.9%
1-2
9.1%
0-2
9.0%
1-0
7.4%
2-1
6.3%
2-2
4.6%
Uni Minsk goals ↓
Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
9.9%
11%
9.0%
4.3%
1.6%
1
7.4%
14%
9.1%
4.4%
1.6%
2
4.4%
6.3%
4.6%
2.2%
0.8%
3
1.5%
2.1%
1.5%
0.7%
0.3%
4
0.4%
0.5%
0.4%
0.2%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Uni Minsk goals (down), columns = Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Molodechno-DYuSSh 4
2.71
Niva
2.57
Lida
2.14
Minsk II
1.86
Osipovichy
1.86
Ostrovets FC
1.71
Bumprom
1.38
Smorgon
1.29
FC Slutsk
1.29
Uni Minsk
1.29
Slonim
1.29
Orsha
1.25
FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk
1.00
BATE II
1.00
Volna
1.00
Dinamo Minsk II
0.88
Shakhter Soligorsk
0.88
Gomel II
0.62
Uni Minsk is 1.43 points worse than Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 in terms of average points per game (1.29 vs 2.71).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Niva
3.14
Molodechno-DYuSSh 4
2.43
Lida
2.14
Volna
1.75
Minsk II
1.71
Slonim
1.71
Shakhter Soligorsk
1.62
FC Slutsk
1.57
BATE II
1.57
Bumprom
1.50
Dinamo Minsk II
1.38
Ostrovets FC
1.29
Orsha
1.25
Smorgon
1.14
Uni Minsk
1.14
Osipovichy
1.14
Gomel II
1.00
FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk
0.86
Uni Minsk is 1.29 goals worse than Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 in terms of goals scored per game (1.14 vs 2.43).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Molodechno-DYuSSh 4
0.43
Uni Minsk
0.57
Minsk II
1.00
FC Slutsk
1.00
Niva
1.14
Smorgon
1.29
FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk
1.43
Ostrovets FC
1.43
Osipovichy
1.43
Slonim
1.57
Bumprom
1.62
Lida
1.71
Orsha
1.88
Dinamo Minsk II
1.88
BATE II
2.00
Volna
2.25
Gomel II
2.38
Shakhter Soligorsk
2.75
Uni Minsk is 0.14 goals worse than Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 in terms of goals conceded per game (0.57 vs 0.43).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Uni Minsk or Draw✗ Miss
54.1%
Avg Implied -
25%
29%
46%
covers Uni Minsk + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Uni Minsk or Molodechno-DYuSSh 4✓ Hit
71.0%
Avg Implied -
25%
29%
46%
covers Uni Minsk + Molodechno-DYuSSh 4
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Molodechno-DYuSSh 4✓ Hit
74.9%
Avg Implied -
25%
29%
46%
covers Draw + Molodechno-DYuSSh 4
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Uni Minsk over/under 0.5Actual: Under
Over
63.5%
Under
36.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Uni Minsk over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
26.7%
Under
73.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Uni Minsk over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
8.2%
Under
91.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Uni Minsk over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
1.9%
Under
98.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
76.4%
Under
23.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
42.3%
Under
57.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
17.7%
Under
82.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
5.9%
Under
94.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Uni Minsk, so a minus line means Uni Minsk give that many goals of a start and Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 receive them. At -1, Uni Minsk must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Uni Minsk win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
This opponent (Molodechno-DYuSSh 4) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Molodechno-DYuSSh 4
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.43
0.77
0.35
0.65
0.54
0.92
vs Stronger (7)
0.43
0.86
0.25
0.75
0.67
1.00
vs Similar (21)
0.38
0.81
0.42
0.67
0.33
1.00
vs Weaker (2)
1.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
2.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
50% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Uni Minsk) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
70.6%
Under 0.5
29.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
35.1%
Under 1.5
64.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
13.3%
Under 2.5
86.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Uni Minsk over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
32.3%
Under
67.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Uni Minsk over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
6.7%
Under
93.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Uni Minsk over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.8%
Under
99.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
57.2%
Under
42.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
22.0%
Under
78.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
4.2%
Under
95.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Uni Minsk
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
1.20
0.80
1.47
1.20
0.93
vs Stronger (5)
0.60
1.20
1.00
2.00
0.50
1.00
vs Similar (20)
0.90
1.25
0.75
1.25
1.12
1.25
vs Weaker (5)
1.80
1.00
1.00
2.50
2.33
0.00
Clean sheet %
40% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Molodechno-DYuSSh 4) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Molodechno-DYuSSh 4
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.80
0.82
0.76
0.38
0.85
vs Stronger (7)
0.71
1.29
1.00
1.25
0.33
1.33
vs Similar (21)
0.48
0.71
0.58
0.67
0.33
0.78
vs Weaker (2)
2.00
0.00
3.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
43% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Uni Minsk) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
80.4%
Under 0.5
19.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
47.2%
Under 1.5
52.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
23.9%
Under 2.5
76.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Uni Minsk over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
39.9%
Under
60.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Uni Minsk over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
10.3%
Under
89.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Uni Minsk over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
2.1%
Under
97.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
66.6%
Under
33.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
29.2%
Under
70.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
8.5%
Under
91.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 7.5
99.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 HT goals
99.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
98.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
98.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 2H goals
97.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
96.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 HT goals
95.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
94.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 HT goals
93.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 goals
91.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 2H goals
91.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away +2 handicap
90.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 4.5
89.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 2H goals
89.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 HT goals
86.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
82.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 2H goals
80.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Away under 1.5 HT goals
78.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
76.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
76.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away over 0.5 goals
76.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 2H goals
76.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Draw or Away
74.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away +1 handicap
74.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 goals
73.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
71.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Home or Away
71.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 2H goals
70.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 HT goals
70.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
UM (29)
€2m
FS (22)
€2m
NIV (21)
€2m
SMO (25)
€2m
BUM (20)
€2m
DMI (27)
€1m
M4 (22)
€1m
VOL (18)
€1m
OF (22)
€1m
MI (23)
€1m
LID (18)
€1m
SLO (20)
€1m
BI (20)
€1m
ORS (19)
€1m
OSI (20)
€1m
GI (17)
€1m
Uni Minsk and Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 have a similar squad value (both €2m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
NIV (5)
€1m
FS (6)
€1m
UM (8)
€1m
BUM (7)
€1m
SMO (9)
€0m
VOL (6)
€0m
ORS (5)
€0m
M4 (6)
€0m
MI (6)
€0m
OF (6)
€0m
OSI (6)
€0m
SLO (6)
€0m
BI (4)
€0m
GI (2)
€0m
LID (2)
€0m
DMI (2)
€0m
Uni Minsk and Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 have a similar attack value (both €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DMI (11)
€1m
LID (7)
€1m
NIV (7)
€1m
FS (8)
€1m
UM (8)
€0m
M4 (7)
€0m
BI (7)
€0m
VOL (6)
€0m
MI (9)
€0m
OF (7)
€0m
SMO (7)
€0m
ORS (9)
€0m
GI (8)
€0m
SLO (6)
€0m
OSI (7)
€0m
BUM (4)
€0m
Uni Minsk and Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
UM (13)
€1m
DMI (14)
€1m
SMO (9)
€1m
BUM (9)
€1m
FS (8)
€1m
OF (9)
€1m
NIV (9)
€1m
M4 (9)
€1m
VOL (6)
€0m
LID (9)
€0m
SLO (8)
€0m
BI (9)
€0m
MI (8)
€0m
OSI (7)
€0m
ORS (5)
€0m
GI (7)
€0m
Uni Minsk and Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 have a similar defence value (both €1m).
Belarus: 1. Division 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Belarus: 1. Division stats & trends →