Uni Minsk’s recent form shows a shaky start, but the model still favours a home win, with a 46% probability against Shakhter Soligorsk’s 30% chance of victory and a 24% draw likelihood. The expected total is 3.5 goals, and the most likely scoreline is 1-1, carrying a 10% probability. Uni Minsk averages two goals scored and conceded at home against stronger opposition, while Shakhter, playing away against weaker sides, manages only 0.67 goals per game but concedes two. The match is projected to be high-scoring, driven by Uni Minsk’s offensive output and Shakhter’s defensive frailties. The model’s selections include an Away under 2.5 HT goals at 97.8%, Under 7.5 total goals at 97.3%, Away under 2.5 2H goals at 96.4%, Under 6.5 at 93.5%, Home under 2.5 HT goals at 93.4%, Away under 3.5 goals at 92.8%, Away under 1.5 HT goals at 92.3%, and Home under 2.5 2H goals at 90.7%. All probabilities are expressed as percentages.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Uni Minsk win
46.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
23.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Shakhter Soligorsk win
29.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Uni Minsk
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.63
1.77
1.75
1.88
1.50
1.64
vs Stronger (5)
1.00
2.00
2.00
2.00
0.75
2.00
vs Similar (20)
1.40
1.80
1.46
1.69
1.29
2.00
vs Weaker (5)
3.20
1.40
3.50
3.00
3.00
0.33
Clean sheet %
30% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (Shakhter Soligorsk) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Shakhter Soligorsk
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.9
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
2.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.93
1.73
0.79
1.79
1.06
1.69
vs Stronger (2)
1.00
3.00
0.00
3.00
2.00
3.00
vs Similar (23)
0.91
1.57
0.73
1.64
1.08
1.50
vs Weaker (5)
1.00
2.00
1.50
2.00
0.67
2.00
Clean sheet %
23% (-3pp vs league)
This opponent (Uni Minsk) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
87.4%
Under 1.5
12.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
68.0%
Under 2.5
32.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
46.4%
Under 3.5
53.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
68.5%
No
31.5%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
10.0%
2-1
8.9%
1-2
7.0%
2-2
6.9%
3-1
5.8%
2-0
5.8%
1-0
5.0%
3-2
4.5%
Uni Minsk goals ↓
Shakhter Soligorsk goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
3.9%
3.7%
3.6%
1.8%
0.7%
1
5.0%
10%
7.0%
3.6%
1.4%
2
5.8%
8.9%
6.9%
3.5%
1.4%
3
3.8%
5.8%
4.5%
2.3%
0.9%
4
1.8%
2.9%
2.2%
1.1%
0.4%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Uni Minsk goals (down), columns = Shakhter Soligorsk goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Molodechno-DYuSSh 4
2.71
Niva
2.57
Lida
2.14
Minsk II
1.86
Osipovichy
1.86
Ostrovets FC
1.71
Bumprom
1.38
Smorgon
1.29
FC Slutsk
1.29
Uni Minsk
1.29
Slonim
1.29
Orsha
1.25
FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk
1.00
BATE II
1.00
Volna
1.00
Dinamo Minsk II
0.88
Shakhter Soligorsk
0.88
Gomel II
0.62
Uni Minsk is 0.41 points better than Shakhter Soligorsk in terms of average points per game (1.29 vs 0.88).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Niva
3.14
Molodechno-DYuSSh 4
2.43
Lida
2.14
Volna
1.75
Minsk II
1.71
Slonim
1.71
Shakhter Soligorsk
1.62
FC Slutsk
1.57
BATE II
1.57
Bumprom
1.50
Dinamo Minsk II
1.38
Ostrovets FC
1.29
Orsha
1.25
Smorgon
1.14
Uni Minsk
1.14
Osipovichy
1.14
Gomel II
1.00
FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk
0.86
Uni Minsk is 0.48 goals worse than Shakhter Soligorsk in terms of goals scored per game (1.14 vs 1.62).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Molodechno-DYuSSh 4
0.43
Uni Minsk
0.57
Minsk II
1.00
FC Slutsk
1.00
Niva
1.14
Smorgon
1.29
FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk
1.43
Ostrovets FC
1.43
Osipovichy
1.43
Slonim
1.57
Bumprom
1.62
Lida
1.71
Orsha
1.88
Dinamo Minsk II
1.88
BATE II
2.00
Volna
2.25
Gomel II
2.38
Shakhter Soligorsk
2.75
Uni Minsk is 2.18 goals better than Shakhter Soligorsk in terms of goals conceded per game (0.57 vs 2.75).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Uni Minsk or Draw
70.3%
Avg Implied -
47%
24%
30%
covers Uni Minsk + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Uni Minsk or Shakhter Soligorsk
76.4%
Avg Implied -
47%
24%
30%
covers Uni Minsk + Shakhter Soligorsk
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Shakhter Soligorsk
53.4%
Avg Implied -
47%
24%
30%
covers Draw + Shakhter Soligorsk
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Uni Minsk over/under 0.5
Over
85.9%
Under
14.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Uni Minsk over/under 1.5
Over
58.3%
Under
41.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Uni Minsk over/under 2.5
Over
31.2%
Under
68.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Uni Minsk over/under 3.5
Over
13.6%
Under
86.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Shakhter Soligorsk over/under 0.5
Over
78.7%
Under
21.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Shakhter Soligorsk over/under 1.5
Over
45.7%
Under
54.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Shakhter Soligorsk over/under 2.5
Over
20.2%
Under
79.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Shakhter Soligorsk over/under 3.5
Over
7.1%
Under
92.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Uni Minsk, so a minus line means Uni Minsk give that many goals of a start and Shakhter Soligorsk receive them. At -1, Uni Minsk must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Uni Minsk win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Uni Minsk)
Uni Minsk -2
12.6%
Draw -2
14.3%
Shakhter Soligorsk +2
73.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Uni Minsk)
Uni Minsk -1
26.9%
Draw -1
19.7%
Shakhter Soligorsk +1
53.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Uni Minsk)
Uni Minsk +1
70.3%
Draw +1
15.4%
Shakhter Soligorsk -1
14.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Uni Minsk)
Uni Minsk +2
85.6%
Draw +2
8.9%
Shakhter Soligorsk -2
5.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Uni Minsk
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.60
1.00
0.50
0.36
0.71
vs Stronger (5)
0.40
0.80
1.00
0.00
0.25
1.00
vs Similar (20)
0.60
0.60
0.77
0.54
0.29
0.71
vs Weaker (5)
1.40
0.40
2.50
0.50
0.67
0.33
Clean sheet %
57% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Shakhter Soligorsk) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Shakhter Soligorsk
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.37
0.70
0.29
0.79
0.44
0.62
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
1.50
0.00
2.00
1.00
1.00
vs Similar (23)
0.30
0.65
0.18
0.73
0.42
0.58
vs Weaker (5)
0.60
0.60
1.00
0.50
0.33
0.67
Clean sheet %
53% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Uni Minsk) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
74.3%
Under 0.5
25.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
38.0%
Under 1.5
62.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
15.6%
Under 2.5
84.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Uni Minsk over/under 0.5 HT
Over
57.2%
Under
42.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Uni Minsk over/under 1.5 HT
Over
23.5%
Under
76.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Uni Minsk over/under 2.5 HT
Over
6.4%
Under
93.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Shakhter Soligorsk over/under 0.5 HT
Over
36.6%
Under
63.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Shakhter Soligorsk over/under 1.5 HT
Over
8.5%
Under
91.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Shakhter Soligorsk over/under 2.5 HT
Over
2.2%
Under
97.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Uni Minsk
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.93
1.17
0.75
1.38
1.14
0.93
vs Stronger (5)
0.60
1.20
1.00
2.00
0.50
1.00
vs Similar (20)
0.80
1.20
0.69
1.15
1.00
1.29
vs Weaker (5)
1.80
1.00
1.00
2.50
2.33
0.00
Clean sheet %
43% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Shakhter Soligorsk) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Shakhter Soligorsk
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
1.03
0.50
1.00
0.62
1.06
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
1.50
0.00
1.00
1.00
2.00
vs Similar (23)
0.61
0.91
0.55
0.91
0.67
0.92
vs Weaker (5)
0.40
1.40
0.50
1.50
0.33
1.33
Clean sheet %
27% (+1pp vs league)
This opponent (Uni Minsk) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
81.9%
Under 0.5
18.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
51.7%
Under 1.5
48.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
26.1%
Under 2.5
73.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Uni Minsk over/under 0.5 2H
Over
65.1%
Under
34.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Uni Minsk over/under 1.5 2H
Over
30.4%
Under
69.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Uni Minsk over/under 2.5 2H
Over
9.9%
Under
90.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Shakhter Soligorsk over/under 0.5 2H
Over
44.3%
Under
55.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Shakhter Soligorsk over/under 1.5 2H
Over
12.4%
Under
87.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Shakhter Soligorsk over/under 2.5 2H
Over
3.1%
Under
96.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Away under 2.5 HT goals
97.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 7.5
97.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 2H goals
96.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 HT goals
93.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
93.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
92.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 HT goals
91.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 2H goals
90.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 2H goals
87.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
87.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
86.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
85.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
85.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
85.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 HT goals
84.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 0.5 2H goals
81.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
79.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
78.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 HT goals
76.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
76.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 0.5 HT goals
74.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 2H goals
73.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
73.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
72.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Draw
70.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +1 handicap
70.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Belarus: 1. Division 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Belarus: 1. Division stats & trends →