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Uni Minsk vs Smorgon Result & Analysis

Date: 05/08/2026
Time: 16:00
Final 2-0
Uni Minsk
Uni Minsk
Vs
44%
24%
32%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Smorgon
Smorgon
Belarus: 1. Division
Referee: -
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Home & Away Over/Under7 Handicap8 Half Time Goals O/U9 Half Time Home & Away O/U10 Second Half Goals O/U11 Second Half Home & Away O/U
12 Top picks for this game14 Squad value15 Games History16 Overall Statistics17 League Table
Match preview & prediction

Uni Minsk hosts Smorgon in the Belarus: 1. Division, with the home side favored to win according to the Pythia prediction model. Uni Minsk comes into this match after a recent win against Smorgon, securing a 2-0 victory. The model suggests that this match will be high-scoring, with an expected total of 3.4 goals, and the most likely outcome is a draw with 3 goals scored.

The most likely scoreline is 1-1, with a probability of 10.5%. Uni Minsk has averaged 1.5 goals scored and 2.25 conceded at home, while Smorgon averages 1 goal scored and 1.91 conceded away from home against similar opponents. The model's selection is the home win, with a 44% probability. The home side's home scoring and conceding statistics suggest a competitive match, with the away side's away form also indicating a possibility of a high-scoring encounter.

The model's selection is the home win (44%), with a draw percentage of 24% and an away win percentage of 32%. The model's other selections include Over 1.5 (86.4%), with no edge percentage mentioned.

Results analysis

The win extends Uni Minsk's run, with this result coming after a win over Smorgon. The final score was 2-0, confirming the actual result of a home win. The model's selection, a home win, was correct, with a pre-match probability of 44%. The model's call was also correct as the favourite, Smorgon was not. The model's selection of Over 1.5 hit, with a probability of 86.4%. The model's selection of the most likely total goals, 3, missed, with a probability of 22%.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Uni Minsk win✓ Hit
44.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
24.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Smorgon win✗ Miss
31.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

Uni MinskUni Minsk

Last 10 – goals for & against
60-630W30W35L23L03L22D24L26L12L11DA·GOM05/10H·VOL10/10A·OST18/10H·MIN25/10H·LID31/10H·LOK08/11H·SLO16/11H·BEL23/11A·MIN26/07H·BUM01/08
Avg total
4.5
Avg scored
1.9
Avg conceded
2.6
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.602.071.752.121.432.00
vs Stronger (6)1.002.001.502.000.752.00
vs Similar (19)1.532.161.552.001.502.38
vs Weaker (5)2.601.802.672.672.500.50
Clean sheet %17% (-9pp vs league)
This opponent (Smorgon) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

SmorgonSmorgon

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-310W22D02L00D10W13L10W01L20W03LH·BAT18/10A·FC 24/10H·FC 01/11A·FC 09/11H·MOL23/11A·FC 29/11H·BEL03/12A·BEL06/12H·GOM25/07A·MOL01/08← Premier League1. Division →
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.1
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.831.370.761.000.921.85
vs Stronger (11)0.731.180.501.331.001.00
vs Similar (18)0.831.560.800.900.882.38
vs Weaker (1)2.000.002.000.00--
Clean sheet %33% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (Uni Minsk) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

5%11%16%22%4%09%120%222%319%413%513%6+
The model estimates around 3.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
86.4%
Under 1.5
13.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
66.2%
Under 2.5
33.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
44.4%
Under 3.5
55.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
67.5%
No
32.5%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
10.5%
2-1
8.8%
1-2
7.4%
2-2
6.9%
2-0 ✓
5.7%
3-1
5.5%
1-0
5.2%
3-2
4.3%
Uni Minsk goals ↓
Smorgon goals →
01234
04.3%4.2%4.0%2.1%0.8%
15.2%10%7.4%3.8%1.5%
25.7%8.8%6.9%3.6%1.4%
33.5%5.5%4.3%2.2%0.9%
41.6%2.5%2.0%1.0%0.4%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Uni Minsk goals (down), columns = Smorgon goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Molodechno-DYuSSh 4
2.71
Niva
2.57
Lida
2.14
Minsk II
1.86
Osipovichy
1.86
Ostrovets FC
1.71
Bumprom
1.38
Smorgon
1.29
FC Slutsk
1.29
Uni Minsk
1.29
Slonim
1.29
Orsha
1.25
FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk
1.00
BATE II
1.00
Volna
1.00
Dinamo Minsk II
0.88
Shakhter Soligorsk
0.88
Gomel II
0.62
Uni Minsk and Smorgon are level in average points per game (both 1.29).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Niva
3.14
Molodechno-DYuSSh 4
2.43
Lida
2.14
Volna
1.75
Minsk II
1.71
Slonim
1.71
Shakhter Soligorsk
1.62
FC Slutsk
1.57
BATE II
1.57
Bumprom
1.50
Dinamo Minsk II
1.38
Ostrovets FC
1.29
Orsha
1.25
Smorgon
1.14
Uni Minsk
1.14
Osipovichy
1.14
Gomel II
1.00
FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk
0.86
Uni Minsk and Smorgon are level in goals scored per game (both 1.14).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Molodechno-DYuSSh 4
0.43
Uni Minsk
0.57
Minsk II
1.00
FC Slutsk
1.00
Niva
1.14
Smorgon
1.29
FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk
1.43
Ostrovets FC
1.43
Osipovichy
1.43
Slonim
1.57
Bumprom
1.62
Lida
1.71
Orsha
1.88
Dinamo Minsk II
1.88
BATE II
2.00
Volna
2.25
Gomel II
2.38
Shakhter Soligorsk
2.75
Uni Minsk is 0.71 goals better than Smorgon in terms of goals conceded per game (0.57 vs 1.29).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Uni MinskUni Minsk

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-300D20W02L00D02L10W21W13L00D10WA·GOM05/10H·VOL10/10A·OST18/10H·MIN25/10H·LID31/10H·LOK08/11H·SLO16/11H·BEL23/11A·MIN26/07H·BUM01/08
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.670.771.060.620.210.93
vs Stronger (6)0.500.831.000.500.251.00
vs Similar (19)0.580.740.820.550.251.00
vs Weaker (5)1.200.802.001.000.000.50
Clean sheet %50% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Smorgon) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

SmorgonSmorgon

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D12L01L00D10W11D10W00D00D02LH·BAT18/10A·FC 24/10H·FC 01/11A·FC 09/11H·MOL23/11A·FC 29/11H·BEL03/12A·BEL06/12H·GOM25/07A·MOL01/08← Premier League1. Division →
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.370.700.410.470.311.00
vs Stronger (11)0.270.640.330.670.200.60
vs Similar (18)0.440.780.500.400.381.25
vs Weaker (1)0.000.000.000.00--
Clean sheet %50% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Uni Minsk) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Uni Minsk over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Uni Minsk over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Uni Minsk over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Smorgon over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Smorgon over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Smorgon over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

Uni MinskUni Minsk

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-330W10W33D23L01L12L03L13L12L01LA·GOM05/10H·VOL10/10A·OST18/10H·MIN25/10H·LID31/10H·LOK08/11H·SLO16/11H·BEL23/11A·MIN26/07H·BUM01/08
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.8
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.931.300.691.501.211.07
vs Stronger (6)0.501.170.501.500.501.00
vs Similar (19)0.951.420.731.451.251.38
vs Weaker (5)1.401.000.671.672.500.00
Clean sheet %30% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (Smorgon) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

SmorgonSmorgon

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-210W10W01L00D00D02L00D01L20W01LH·BAT18/10A·FC 24/10H·FC 01/11A·FC 09/11H·MOL23/11A·FC 29/11H·BEL03/12A·BEL06/12H·GOM25/07A·MOL01/08← Premier League1. Division →
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.470.670.350.530.620.85
vs Stronger (11)0.450.550.170.670.800.40
vs Similar (18)0.390.780.300.500.501.12
vs Weaker (1)2.000.002.000.00--
Clean sheet %50% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Uni Minsk) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Uni Minsk over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Uni Minsk over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Uni Minsk over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Smorgon over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Smorgon over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Smorgon over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.586.4%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
UM (29)
€2m
FS (22)
€2m
NIV (21)
€2m
SMO (25)
€2m
BUM (20)
€2m
DMI (27)
€1m
M4 (22)
€1m
VOL (18)
€1m
OF (22)
€1m
MI (23)
€1m
LID (18)
€1m
SLO (20)
€1m
BI (20)
€1m
ORS (19)
€1m
OSI (20)
€1m
GI (17)
€1m
Uni Minsk and Smorgon have a similar squad value (both €2m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
NIV (5)
€1m
FS (6)
€1m
UM (8)
€1m
BUM (7)
€1m
SMO (9)
€0m
VOL (6)
€0m
ORS (5)
€0m
M4 (6)
€0m
MI (6)
€0m
OF (6)
€0m
OSI (6)
€0m
SLO (6)
€0m
BI (4)
€0m
GI (2)
€0m
LID (2)
€0m
DMI (2)
€0m
Uni Minsk and Smorgon have a similar attack value (both €1m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DMI (11)
€1m
LID (7)
€1m
NIV (7)
€1m
FS (8)
€1m
UM (8)
€0m
M4 (7)
€0m
BI (7)
€0m
VOL (6)
€0m
MI (9)
€0m
OF (7)
€0m
SMO (7)
€0m
ORS (9)
€0m
GI (8)
€0m
SLO (6)
€0m
OSI (7)
€0m
BUM (4)
€0m
Uni Minsk and Smorgon have a similar midfield value (both €0m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
UM (13)
€1m
DMI (14)
€1m
SMO (9)
€1m
BUM (9)
€1m
FS (8)
€1m
OF (9)
€1m
NIV (9)
€1m
M4 (9)
€1m
VOL (6)
€0m
LID (9)
€0m
SLO (8)
€0m
BI (9)
€0m
MI (8)
€0m
OSI (7)
€0m
ORS (5)
€0m
GI (7)
€0m
Uni Minsk and Smorgon have a similar defence value (both €1m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

No previous meetings
0
UM wins
0
Draws
0
SMO wins

Head-to-head

Uni Minsk vs Smorgon · H/A from UM
DateH/AGameScore
No games.

Uni MinskUni Minsk

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
01/08/26HUM Vs Bumprom1-1
26/07/26AMinsk II Vs UM2-1
23/11/25HUM Vs Belshina2-6
16/11/25HUM Vs Slonim2-4
08/11/25HUM Vs Lokomotiv Gomel2-2
31/10/25HUM Vs Lida0-3
25/10/25HUM Vs Minsk II2-3
18/10/25AOstrovets FC Vs UM5-3
10/10/25HUM Vs Volna3-0
05/10/25AGomel II Vs UM0-3

SmorgonSmorgon

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
01/08/26AMolodechno-DYuSSh 4 Vs SMO3-0
25/07/26HSMO Vs Gomel II2-0
06/12/25ABelshina Vs SMO1-0
03/12/25HSMO Vs Belshina1-0
29/11/25AFC Gomel Vs SMO3-1
23/11/25HSMO Vs Molodechno-DYuSSh 41-0
09/11/25AFC Isloch Minsk R. Vs SMO0-0
01/11/25HSMO Vs FC Vitebsk0-2
24/10/25AFC Minsk Vs SMO2-2
18/10/25HSMO Vs Bate Borisov1-0

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Uni Minsk
Uni Minsk
Belarus: 1. Division
Recent: 2 Wins / 2 Draws / 6 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDLLLD1.03
HomeLDLLD1.06
AwayWLWLL1.00
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %28%28%28%
AVG goals3.643.833.44
Over 1.5 %94%89%100%
Over 2.5 %75%78%72%
Over 3.5 %39%44%33%
Scored1.561.721.39
Conceded2.082.112.06
BTTS64%61%67%
Clean Sheet19%22%17%
Corners---
Cards---
Smorgon
Smorgon
Belarus: 1. Division
Recent: 4 Wins / 2 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLWLWL1.02
HomeWLWWW1.44
AwayDDLLL0.52
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %26%41%9%
AVG goals2.221.702.83
Over 1.5 %60%52%70%
Over 2.5 %36%19%57%
Over 3.5 %22%11%35%
Scored0.800.700.91
Conceded1.421.001.91
BTTS36%19%57%
Clean Sheet36%48%22%
Corners8.008.00-
Cards4.394.244.58

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Molodechno-DYuSSh 4Molodechno-DYuSSh 4719
86%
2.7
173+14
2.9
71%
71%
29%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0012.40.4
-
2NivaNiva718
86%
2.6
228+14
4.3
100%
86%
43%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1113.11.1
-
3LidaLida715
71%
2.1
1512+3
3.9
100%
100%
57%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0102.11.7
-
4Minsk IIMinsk II713
57%
1.9
127+5
2.7
71%
71%
29%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.71.0
-
5OsipovichyOsipovichy713
57%
1.9
810-2
2.6
71%
43%
29%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.11.4
-
6Ostrovets FCOstrovets FC712
57%
1.7
910-1
2.7
86%
43%
29%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0011.31.4
-
7BumpromBumprom811
38%
1.4
1213-1
3.1
88%
62%
38%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.51.6
-
8OrshaOrsha810
38%
1.2
1015-5
3.1
88%
88%
38%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.21.9
-
9FC SlutskFC Slutsk79
29%
1.3
117+4
2.6
71%
71%
29%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1111.61.0
-
10Uni MinskUni Minsk79
29%
1.3
84+4
1.7
57%
29%
14%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.10.6
-
11SlonimSlonim79
43%
1.3
1211+1
3.3
100%
71%
43%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.71.6
-
12SmorgonSmorgon79
43%
1.3
89-1
2.4
86%
29%
14%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
0011.11.3
-
13VolnaVolna88
25%
1.0
1418-4
4.0
88%
75%
62%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.82.2
-
14BATE IIBATE II77
29%
1.0
1114-3
3.6
86%
71%
43%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.62.0
-
15Dinamo Minsk IIDinamo Minsk II87
25%
0.9
1115-4
3.2
88%
88%
38%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0111.41.9
-
16FC Energetik-Bgu MinskFC Energetik-Bgu Minsk77
29%
1.0
610-4
2.3
57%
57%
14%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.91.4
-
17Shakhter SoligorskShakhter Soligorsk87
25%
0.9
1322-9
4.4
88%
88%
75%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.62.8
-
18Gomel IIGomel II85
12%
0.6
819-11
3.4
100%
75%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.02.4
-
Belarus: 1. Division 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Belarus: 1. Division stats & trends →

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