The clash between Union Berlin and Eintracht Frankfurt is a tight one, with the model favouring an away win. The expected total of 3.0 goals points to a moderately high-scoring game, yet the most probable total is 2, with a 23 % chance. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, carrying a 12.2 % probability.
Union Berlin, playing at home against a side of similar strength, averages 1.45 goals scored and 1.36 conceded. Eintracht Frankfurt, on the road against a comparable opponent, averages 2.0 goals scored and 2.12 conceded. The home win probability sits at 33 %, the draw at 26 %, and the away win at 41 %.
The model’s selections include Home under 2.5 HT goals (97.8 %, edge 6 %), Under 7.5 (97.6 %), Away under 2.5 HT goals (97.0 %, edge 5 %), Home under 2.5 2H goals (95.1 %, edge 6 %), Away under 2.5 2H goals (94.3 %, edge 4 %), Under 6.5 (94.0 %), Home under 3.5 goals (91.8 %, edge 1 %), and Away under 3.5 goals (89.1 %).
Results analysis
Union Berlin and Eintracht Frankfurt ended the match in a 3-3 draw, a result that surprised the model’s pre-match favourite, the away win, which had a 42% probability. The model’s call was therefore wrong. The final score of 3-3 also meant the match was a draw, contrary to the predicted 2-1 or 1-2 outcomes. Every suggested pick hit: Home under 2.5 HT goals at 97.7%, Under 7.5 at 97.6%, Away under 2.5 HT goals at 96.8%, Home under 2.5 2H goals at 94.9%, Under 6.5 at 94.0%, Away under 2.5 2H goals at 93.9%, Home under 3.5 goals at 91.8%, and Away under 3.5 goals at 88.9%. Both sides were coming off a 3-3 draw, extending their recent form narratives.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Union Berlin win✗ Miss
31.7%
Avg Implied 36.8% · @ 2.57
Edge
-5.0%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
2.68
Pinnacle
2.67
Marathonbet
2.66
Betfair
2.63
Dafabet
2.60
Draw✓ Hit
26.1%
Avg Implied 26.8% · @ 3.53
Edge
-0.7%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
3.68
Marathonbet
3.62
BetVictor
3.60
Dafabet
3.60
Betfair
3.60
Eintracht Frankfurt win✗ Miss
42.2%
Avg Implied 36.4% · @ 2.59
Edge
+5.8%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
2.70
Superbet
2.70
Dafabet
2.65
Betano
2.65
Betfair
2.63
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Union Berlin
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.5
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
2.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.20
1.57
1.47
1.40
0.93
1.73
vs Stronger (7)
1.00
2.14
1.50
1.50
0.33
3.00
vs Similar (23)
1.26
1.39
1.45
1.36
1.08
1.42
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
23% (-0pp vs league)
This opponent (Eintracht Frankfurt) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Eintracht Frankfurt
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.40
1.87
1.33
1.60
1.47
2.13
vs Stronger (7)
1.29
2.86
2.00
3.00
1.00
2.80
vs Similar (19)
1.58
1.84
1.27
1.64
2.00
2.12
vs Weaker (4)
0.75
0.25
1.00
0.00
0.50
0.50
Clean sheet %
23% (-0pp vs league)
This opponent (Union Berlin) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.1 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (23%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
81.9%
@ 1.19+2.9%
Under 1.5
18.1%
@ 4.49-2.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.21
888Sport
1.20
Bet365
1.20
10Bet
1.20
Betfair
1.20
Under
BetVictor
4.80
Superbet
4.75
888Sport
4.60
Betfair
4.50
Unibet
4.50
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
58.8%
@ 1.64+1.0%
Under 2.5
41.2%
@ 2.26-1.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.71
Pinnacle
1.68
Bet365
1.67
Unibet
1.66
Marathonbet
1.66
Under
1xBet
2.32
Betfair
2.30
Betano
2.30
SBO
2.29
Pinnacle
2.29
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
36.4%
@ 2.55-0.5%
Under 3.5
63.6%
@ 1.49+0.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
2.65
Betfair
2.63
Bet365
2.62
Pinnacle
2.61
10Bet
2.55
Under
Betano
1.55
Superbet
1.53
Pinnacle
1.52
10Bet
1.50
Bet365
1.50
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
62.0%
@ 1.51+0.2%
No
38.0%
@ 2.45-0.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
William Hil
1.55
Bet365
1.53
888Sport
1.53
Unibet
1.52
1xBet
1.52
No
Betfair
2.63
Betano
2.47
Superbet
2.47
10Bet
2.45
BetVictor
2.45
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.0%@ 6.50+5.0%
1-2
9.0%@ 9.09+4.0%
2-1
7.7%@ 8.86+2.5%
0-1
6.7%@ 10.30+2.2%
0-2
6.4%@ 13.54+3.0%
2-2
6.3%@ 10.58+2.0%
0-0
5.8%@ 13.15+2.3%
1-0
5.6%@ 10.07+1.0%
Union Berlin goals ↓
Eintracht Frankfurt goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
5.8%
6.7%
6.4%
3.5%
1.4%
1
5.6%
12%
9.0%
4.9%
2.0%
2
4.7%
7.7%
6.3%
3.5%
1.4%
3
2.2%
3.6%
3.0%
1.6%
0.7%
4
0.8%
1.3%
1.0%
0.6%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Union Berlin goals (down), columns = Eintracht Frankfurt goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Bayern München
2.62
Borussia Dortmund
2.15
RB Leipzig
1.91
VfB Stuttgart
1.82
1899 Hoffenheim
1.79
Bayer Leverkusen
1.74
SC Freiburg
1.38
Eintracht Frankfurt
1.29
FC Augsburg
1.26
FSV Mainz 05
1.18
Union Berlin
1.15
Borussia Mönchengladbach
1.12
Hamburger SV
1.12
SV Elversberg
1.00
SC Paderborn 07
1.00
FC Schalke 04
1.00
1. FC Köln
0.94
Werder Bremen
0.94
Union Berlin is 0.15 points worse than Eintracht Frankfurt in terms of average points per game (1.15 vs 1.29).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Bayern München
3.59
VfB Stuttgart
2.09
Borussia Dortmund
2.06
Bayer Leverkusen
2.00
RB Leipzig
1.94
1899 Hoffenheim
1.91
Eintracht Frankfurt
1.79
SC Freiburg
1.50
1. FC Köln
1.44
FC Augsburg
1.32
FSV Mainz 05
1.29
Union Berlin
1.29
Borussia Mönchengladbach
1.24
Hamburger SV
1.18
SV Elversberg
1.15
FC Schalke 04
1.14
Werder Bremen
1.09
SC Paderborn 07
0.50
Union Berlin is 0.50 goals worse than Eintracht Frankfurt in terms of goals scored per game (1.29 vs 1.79).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
SC Paderborn 07
0.50
Borussia Dortmund
1.00
Bayern München
1.06
Bayer Leverkusen
1.38
RB Leipzig
1.38
VfB Stuttgart
1.44
1899 Hoffenheim
1.53
Borussia Mönchengladbach
1.56
FSV Mainz 05
1.56
Hamburger SV
1.59
SC Freiburg
1.68
Union Berlin
1.71
Werder Bremen
1.76
FC Augsburg
1.79
1. FC Köln
1.85
Eintracht Frankfurt
1.91
SV Elversberg
2.10
FC Schalke 04
2.11
Union Berlin is 0.21 goals better than Eintracht Frankfurt in terms of goals conceded per game (1.71 vs 1.91).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Bayern München
67%
Bayer Leverkusen
59%
VfB Stuttgart
58%
1899 Hoffenheim
55%
Eintracht Frankfurt
55%
RB Leipzig
54%
Borussia Dortmund
53%
SC Paderborn 07
52%
Werder Bremen
51%
SC Freiburg
48%
1. FC Köln
47%
Borussia Mönchengladbach
47%
Hamburger SV
45%
FSV Mainz 05
44%
FC Augsburg
44%
Union Berlin
40%
Union Berlin is 14.7 percentage points worse than Eintracht Frankfurt in terms of average possession (40% vs 55%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Union Berlin
For 4.5 · Against 6.1 · Total 10.6
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.6 · Against 1.5 · Total 3.1
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.1 · Against 8.8 · Total 18.9
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Eintracht Frankfurt
For 5.6 · Against 5.3 · Total 10.9
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.9 · Against 1.9 · Total 3.8
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 9.1 · Against 10.0 · Total 19.1
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Union Berlin
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.7
9.7
9.7
3.9
4.2
3.5
21.6
22.4
20.8
vs Stronger (12)
10.6
10.7
10.5
3.5
4.3
2.7
19.6
19.5
19.7
vs Similar (38)
9.4
9.4
9.4
4.0
4.2
3.8
22.3
23.4
21.2
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
52%
52%
52%
50%
60%
40%
40%
44%
36%
% under line
48%
48%
48%
50%
40%
60%
60%
56%
64%
This opponent (Eintracht Frankfurt) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Eintracht Frankfurt
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.2
9.3
9.1
3.6
3.8
3.5
19.9
19.1
20.8
vs Stronger (12)
8.1
9.2
7.0
2.8
2.8
2.8
19.9
18.5
21.3
vs Similar (29)
9.7
10.3
9.1
4.1
4.3
3.9
20.3
19.6
21.0
vs Weaker (9)
9.1
6.6
12.2
3.2
3.6
2.8
18.7
18.2
19.2
% over line
48%
48%
48%
44%
60%
28%
38%
36%
40%
% under line
52%
52%
52%
56%
40%
72%
62%
64%
60%
This opponent (Union Berlin) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
RB Leipzig
10.3
1899 Hoffenheim
10.3
1. FC Köln
10.2
VfB Stuttgart
10.0
SC Paderborn 07
9.9
Hamburger SV
9.9
FC Augsburg
9.8
Union Berlin
9.7
Bayern München
9.7
FC Schalke 04
9.6
Bayer Leverkusen
9.6
SV Elversberg
9.5
Werder Bremen
9.4
FSV Mainz 05
9.3
Eintracht Frankfurt
9.2
Borussia Mönchengladbach
9.1
Borussia Dortmund
9.0
SC Freiburg
8.4
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Hamburger SV
5.2
Werder Bremen
4.6
SC Paderborn 07
4.6
SV Elversberg
4.5
FC Schalke 04
4.4
Bayer Leverkusen
4.4
1. FC Köln
4.4
FSV Mainz 05
4.4
FC Augsburg
4.1
1899 Hoffenheim
4.1
VfB Stuttgart
4.1
Union Berlin
4.0
Borussia Mönchengladbach
4.0
Bayern München
3.9
Eintracht Frankfurt
3.9
SC Freiburg
3.7
Borussia Dortmund
3.6
RB Leipzig
3.5
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
SC Paderborn 07
24.4
SV Elversberg
24.1
Hamburger SV
23.8
FC Schalke 04
23.8
SC Freiburg
22.7
1899 Hoffenheim
22.7
VfB Stuttgart
22.6
Borussia Dortmund
22.1
FSV Mainz 05
21.9
FC Augsburg
21.8
Union Berlin
21.6
Werder Bremen
20.5
1. FC Köln
20.4
Borussia Mönchengladbach
20.4
Eintracht Frankfurt
19.9
RB Leipzig
19.9
Bayer Leverkusen
19.5
Bayern München
18.6
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
48.9%
@ 1.82-2.4%
Under 9.5
51.1%
@ 1.92+2.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.91
Pinnacle
1.86
Superbet
1.85
Bet365
1.83
1xBet
1.81
Under
Pinnacle
1.97
Marathonbet
1.96
10Bet
1.95
Unibet
1.93
1xBet
1.93
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
56.6%
@ 1.89+7.0%
Under 3.5
43.4%
@ 1.85-7.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.95
Superbet
1.92
1xBet
1.91
Bet365
1.91
Betano
1.87
Under
Unibet
1.91
Betano
1.91
Pinnacle
1.87
Superbet
1.82
1xBet
1.80
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Under
Over 21.5
38.8%
@ 2.00-7.6%
Under 21.5
61.2%
@ 1.74+7.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.00
Superbet
2.00
Under
Betano
1.75
Superbet
1.72
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Union Berlin or Draw✓ Hit
58.2%
Avg Implied 63.5% · @ 1.49
Edge
-5.3%
32%
26%
42%
covers Union Berlin + Draw
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
1.53
Marathonbet
1.53
888Sport
1.50
William Hil
1.50
Betano
1.50
Union Berlin or Eintracht Frankfurt✗ Miss
75.7%
Avg Implied 73.4% · @ 1.29
Edge
+2.3%
32%
26%
42%
covers Union Berlin + Eintracht Frankfurt
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
1.33
Superbet
1.32
Marathonbet
1.32
Unibet
1.30
888Sport
1.30
Draw or Eintracht Frankfurt✓ Hit
66.2%
Avg Implied 63.1% · @ 1.50
Edge
+3.0%
32%
26%
42%
covers Draw + Eintracht Frankfurt
Best 5 market prices
Superbet
1.53
Betano
1.53
1xBet
1.53
Marathonbet
1.52
Bet365
1.50
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Union Berlin over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
80.2%
@ 1.21+3.1%
Under
19.8%
@ 4.07-3.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.23
Betano
1.23
888Sport
1.22
Bet365
1.22
1xBet
1.21
Under
Betfair
4.50
Pinnacle
4.24
BetVictor
4.10
Superbet
4.10
888Sport
4.00
Union Berlin over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
48.1%
@ 2.06+2.7%
Under
51.9%
@ 1.72-2.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.17
Marathonbet
2.14
1xBet
2.13
888Sport
2.05
BetVictor
2.05
Under
Betano
1.75
Superbet
1.74
Betfair
1.73
Bet365
1.73
1xBet
1.73
Union Berlin over/under 2.5Actual: Over
Over
22.2%
@ 4.44+1.2%
Under
77.8%
@ 1.18-1.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
4.80
Pinnacle
4.58
Marathonbet
4.55
Bet365
4.50
BetVictor
4.50
Under
Betano
1.22
Superbet
1.20
Pinnacle
1.20
Marathonbet
1.18
Bet365
1.18
Union Berlin over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
8.2%
@ 9.87-1.3%
Under
91.8%
@ 1.03+1.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
888Sport
11.00
Bet365
11.00
Unibet
10.00
Marathonbet
9.90
1xBet
9.80
Under
Betano
1.06
Bet365
1.05
Superbet
1.04
888Sport
1.04
1xBet
1.02
Eintracht Frankfurt over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
83.7%
@ 1.21+6.6%
Under
16.3%
@ 4.06-6.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.22
Betano
1.22
888Sport
1.22
Pinnacle
1.22
Superbet
1.22
Under
Betfair
4.50
Pinnacle
4.31
BetVictor
4.10
888Sport
4.00
Superbet
4.00
Eintracht Frankfurt over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
54.1%
@ 2.07+8.8%
Under
45.9%
@ 1.71-8.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.15
1xBet
2.13
Marathonbet
2.12
Unibet
2.08
Superbet
2.07
Under
Pinnacle
1.73
Betfair
1.73
Bet365
1.73
Marathonbet
1.73
1xBet
1.73
Eintracht Frankfurt over/under 2.5Actual: Over
Over
27.3%
@ 4.48+6.4%
Under
72.7%
@ 1.18-6.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
4.80
Pinnacle
4.60
Bet365
4.50
888Sport
4.50
1xBet
4.50
Under
Pinnacle
1.20
Betano
1.20
Superbet
1.19
Marathonbet
1.19
888Sport
1.18
Eintracht Frankfurt over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
11.1%
@ 10.00+1.7%
Under
88.9%
@ 1.03-1.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
888Sport
11.00
Bet365
11.00
Superbet
10.00
Unibet
10.00
1xBet
9.80
Under
Betano
1.05
Bet365
1.05
888Sport
1.04
Superbet
1.04
Marathonbet
1.02
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Union Berlin, so a minus line means Union Berlin give that many goals of a start and Eintracht Frankfurt receive them. At -1, Union Berlin must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Union Berlin win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
This opponent (Eintracht Frankfurt) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Eintracht Frankfurt
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.67
0.33
0.40
0.73
0.93
vs Stronger (7)
0.57
1.14
1.00
1.00
0.40
1.20
vs Similar (19)
0.63
0.58
0.27
0.36
1.12
0.88
vs Weaker (4)
0.00
0.25
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.50
Clean sheet %
53% (+30pp vs league)
This opponent (Union Berlin) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
74.3%
@ 1.30+2.2%
Under 0.5
25.7%
@ 3.37-2.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.34
1xBet
1.33
Marathonbet
1.33
Superbet
1.31
William Hil
1.30
Under
Betfair
3.60
Superbet
3.50
Bet365
3.50
BetVictor
3.50
1xBet
3.30
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
37.9%
@ 2.40-1.2%
Under 1.5
62.1%
@ 1.54+1.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.47
William Hil
2.45
Pinnacle
2.45
Unibet
2.43
Marathonbet
2.42
Under
Superbet
1.59
Marathonbet
1.56
1xBet
1.56
Pinnacle
1.56
10Bet
1.55
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
12.9%
@ 5.51-4.1%
Under 2.5
87.1%
@ 1.12+4.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
6.50
Betfair
5.50
Unibet
5.50
Bet365
5.50
Superbet
5.50
Under
Superbet
1.15
Betano
1.15
Bet365
1.14
10Bet
1.13
1xBet
1.12
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Union Berlin over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
49.9%
@ 1.89+0.8%
Under
50.1%
@ 1.82-0.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.93
Betano
1.91
Unibet
1.90
1xBet
1.89
Marathonbet
1.89
Under
Pinnacle
1.86
10Bet
1.85
Superbet
1.83
Betano
1.83
1xBet
1.81
Union Berlin over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
13.5%
@ 5.46-3.4%
Under
86.5%
@ 1.11+3.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
5.65
1xBet
5.65
Unibet
5.50
10Bet
5.50
Superbet
5.25
Under
Betano
1.14
Superbet
1.12
1xBet
1.11
10Bet
1.11
Marathonbet
1.10
Union Berlin over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
2.3%
@ 14.00-4.5%
Under
97.7%
@ 1.01+4.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
17.00
Betano
11.00
Under
Betano
1.02
Superbet
1.01
Eintracht Frankfurt over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
52.9%
@ 1.90+4.0%
Under
47.1%
@ 1.82-4.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.95
Pinnacle
1.93
Unibet
1.92
Marathonbet
1.89
1xBet
1.89
Under
Pinnacle
1.87
10Bet
1.85
Superbet
1.82
Marathonbet
1.81
1xBet
1.81
Eintracht Frankfurt over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
13.8%
@ 5.53-2.9%
Under
86.2%
@ 1.11+2.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
5.65
Marathonbet
5.60
Unibet
5.60
10Bet
5.50
Betano
5.50
Under
Betano
1.13
Superbet
1.12
1xBet
1.11
Marathonbet
1.11
10Bet
1.11
Eintracht Frankfurt over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
3.2%
@ 14.25-3.4%
Under
96.8%
@ 1.01+3.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
17.00
Betano
11.50
Under
Betano
1.02
Superbet
1.01
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Union Berlin
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.80
0.93
0.80
0.73
0.80
vs Stronger (7)
0.71
1.14
1.00
1.00
0.33
1.33
vs Similar (23)
0.87
0.70
0.91
0.73
0.83
0.67
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
33% (+10pp vs league)
This opponent (Eintracht Frankfurt) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Eintracht Frankfurt
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
1.20
1.00
1.20
0.73
1.20
vs Stronger (7)
0.71
1.71
1.00
2.00
0.60
1.60
vs Similar (19)
0.95
1.26
1.00
1.27
0.88
1.25
vs Weaker (4)
0.75
0.00
1.00
0.00
0.50
0.00
Clean sheet %
33% (+10pp vs league)
This opponent (Union Berlin) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
80.2%
@ 1.17+0.2%
Under 0.5
19.8%
@ 4.69-0.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.19
1xBet
1.18
William Hil
1.18
888Sport
1.18
Marathonbet
1.18
Under
Bet365
5.00
Superbet
4.85
888Sport
4.75
Betano
4.70
1xBet
4.65
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
53.3%
@ 1.84+2.2%
Under 1.5
46.7%
@ 1.93-2.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
1.90
1xBet
1.90
Superbet
1.87
888Sport
1.85
William Hil
1.83
Under
Betano
1.98
888Sport
1.95
Superbet
1.95
1xBet
1.93
Marathonbet
1.93
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
21.3%
@ 3.59-4.7%
Under 2.5
78.7%
@ 1.26+4.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
3.75
888Sport
3.70
Marathonbet
3.66
1xBet
3.66
Superbet
3.65
Under
Betano
1.31
Superbet
1.29
Marathonbet
1.26
1xBet
1.26
Bet365
1.25
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Union Berlin over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
54.5%
@ 1.61-3.1%
Under
45.5%
@ 2.19+3.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.63
Superbet
1.61
Betano
1.60
Under
Betano
2.25
Superbet
2.17
1xBet
2.14
Union Berlin over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
19.9%
@ 3.96-3.5%
Under
80.1%
@ 1.21+3.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
4.15
1xBet
4.10
10Bet
3.95
Superbet
3.90
Betano
3.70
Under
Betano
1.25
Superbet
1.21
10Bet
1.20
1xBet
1.19
Marathonbet
1.19
Union Berlin over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
5.1%
@ 9.25-5.1%
Under
94.9%
@ 1.04+5.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
10.00
Betano
8.50
Under
Betano
1.05
Superbet
1.03
Eintracht Frankfurt over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
55.5%
@ 1.62-1.9%
Under
44.5%
@ 2.18+1.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.63
1xBet
1.63
Betano
1.60
Under
Betano
2.25
Superbet
2.15
1xBet
2.14
Eintracht Frankfurt over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
25.6%
@ 3.99+2.4%
Under
74.4%
@ 1.21-2.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
4.10
1xBet
4.10
Superbet
4.00
10Bet
3.95
Betano
3.80
Under
Betano
1.24
Marathonbet
1.20
Superbet
1.20
10Bet
1.20
1xBet
1.19
Eintracht Frankfurt over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
6.1%
@ 10.50-2.8%
Under
93.9%
@ 1.03+2.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
12.00
Betano
9.00
Under
Betano
1.04
Superbet
1.02
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Home under 2.5 HT goals
97.7%
1.01
Betano
1.02
Superbet
1.01
-
-
-
+4.5%
✓ Hit
Under 7.5
97.6%
1.01
Superbet
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
+0.7%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 HT goals
96.8%
1.01
Betano
1.02
Superbet
1.01
-
-
-
+3.4%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 2H goals
94.9%
1.04
Betano
1.05
Superbet
1.03
-
-
-
+5.1%
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
94.0%
1.02
Betano
1.03
Bet365
1.02
Superbet
1.02
1xBet
1.02
Betfair
1.01
-0.4%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 2H goals
93.9%
1.03
Betano
1.04
Superbet
1.02
-
-
-
+2.8%
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
91.8%
1.03
Betano
1.06
Bet365
1.05
Superbet
1.04
888Sport
1.04
1xBet
1.02
+1.3%
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
88.9%
1.03
Betano
1.05
Bet365
1.05
888Sport
1.04
Superbet
1.04
Marathonbet
1.02
-1.7%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 HT goals
87.1%
1.12
Superbet
1.15
Betano
1.15
Bet365
1.14
10Bet
1.13
1xBet
1.12
+4.1%
✗ Miss
Under 25.5 fouls
87.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
86.6%
1.06
Betano
1.09
Superbet
1.07
Bet365
1.07
Betfair
1.06
888Sport
1.06
-2.5%
✗ Miss
Home under 1.5 HT goals
86.5%
1.11
Betano
1.14
Superbet
1.12
1xBet
1.11
10Bet
1.11
Marathonbet
1.10
+3.4%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 HT goals
86.2%
1.11
Betano
1.13
Superbet
1.12
1xBet
1.11
Marathonbet
1.11
10Bet
1.11
+2.9%
✗ Miss
Away over 0.5 goals
83.7%
1.21
Bet365
1.22
Betano
1.22
888Sport
1.22
Pinnacle
1.22
Superbet
1.22
+6.6%
✓ Hit
Away +2 handicap
82.9%
1.15
Superbet
1.18
Bet365
1.17
10Bet
1.15
Unibet
1.14
Marathonbet
1.13
+4.3%
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
81.9%
1.19
Betano
1.21
888Sport
1.20
Bet365
1.20
10Bet
1.20
Betfair
1.20
+2.9%
✓ Hit
Home over 0.5 goals
80.2%
1.21
Pinnacle
1.23
Betano
1.23
888Sport
1.22
Bet365
1.22
1xBet
1.21
+3.1%
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 2H goals
80.2%
1.17
Superbet
1.19
1xBet
1.18
William Hil
1.18
888Sport
1.18
Marathonbet
1.18
+0.2%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 2H goals
80.1%
1.21
Betano
1.25
Superbet
1.21
10Bet
1.20
1xBet
1.19
Marathonbet
1.19
+3.5%
✗ Miss
Under 2.5 2H goals
78.7%
1.26
Betano
1.31
Superbet
1.29
Marathonbet
1.26
1xBet
1.26
Bet365
1.25
+4.7%
✗ Miss
Under 5.5 cards
78.6%
1.22
Unibet
1.29
Betano
1.22
Superbet
1.15
-
-
+2.7%
✗ Miss
Home under 2.5 goals
77.8%
1.18
Betano
1.22
Superbet
1.20
Pinnacle
1.20
Marathonbet
1.18
Bet365
1.18
-1.2%
✗ Miss
Home +2 handicap
77.1%
1.15
Bet365
1.17
Superbet
1.17
10Bet
1.15
Marathonbet
1.14
Unibet
1.14
-1.5%
✓ Hit
Under 23.5 fouls
76.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
76.1%
1.36
Betano
1.39
Superbet
1.38
Unibet
1.33
Pinnacle
1.33
-
+7.8%
✓ Hit
Home or Away
75.7%
1.29
1xBet
1.33
Superbet
1.32
Marathonbet
1.32
Unibet
1.30
888Sport
1.30
+2.3%
✗ Miss
Away under 1.5 2H goals
74.4%
1.21
Betano
1.24
Marathonbet
1.20
Superbet
1.20
10Bet
1.20
1xBet
1.19
-2.4%
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 HT goals
74.3%
1.30
Betano
1.34
1xBet
1.33
Marathonbet
1.33
Superbet
1.31
William Hil
1.30
+2.2%
✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners
74.3%
1.33
Superbet
1.37
Unibet
1.35
Marathonbet
1.32
1xBet
1.31
Betano
1.30
+5.2%
✓ Hit
Under 4.5
73.8%
1.19
Betano
1.22
Superbet
1.21
Betfair
1.20
Bet365
1.20
10Bet
1.20
-5.5%
✗ Miss
Away under 2.5 goals
72.7%
1.18
Pinnacle
1.20
Betano
1.20
Superbet
1.19
Marathonbet
1.19
888Sport
1.18
-6.4%
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Union Berlin · 2025/26
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Robert Skov25%
Leopold Querfeld18%
Rani Khedira17%
Woo-Yeong Jeong16%
Andrej Ilić15%
Oliver Burke13%
Ilyas Ansah11%
Danilho Doekhi11%
Josip Juranović9%
Tom Rothe8%
Stanley N'Soki7%
András Schäfer6%
Livan Burcu5%
Tim Skarke4%
Derrick Köhn3%
Diogo Leite0%
Alex Král0%
Frederik Rønnow0%
Christopher Trimmel0%
Janik Haberer0%
Carl Klaus0%
Aljoscha Kemlein0%
Dmytro Bogdanov0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Livan Burcu26%
Christopher Trimmel26%
Janik Haberer26%
Rani Khedira20%
Andrej Ilić18%
Leopold Querfeld18%
Derrick Köhn17%
Diogo Leite16%
Aljoscha Kemlein16%
Stanley N'Soki14%
Danilho Doekhi14%
Oliver Burke13%
András Schäfer10%
Josip Juranović9%
Frederik Rønnow6%
Ilyas Ansah6%
Alex Král5%
Tom Rothe4%
Woo-Yeong Jeong0%
Robert Skov0%
Tim Skarke0%
Carl Klaus0%
Dmytro Bogdanov0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Dmytro Bogdanov33%
Andrej Ilić24%
Stanley N'Soki14%
Christopher Trimmel13%
Josip Juranović9%
Derrick Köhn7%
Oliver Burke6%
Janik Haberer6%
Aljoscha Kemlein6%
Livan Burcu5%
Tim Skarke4%
Woo-Yeong Jeong3%
András Schäfer3%
Rani Khedira3%
Ilyas Ansah3%
Danilho Doekhi3%
Diogo Leite0%
Alex Král0%
Robert Skov0%
Frederik Rønnow0%
Carl Klaus0%
Leopold Querfeld0%
Tom Rothe0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Andrej Ilić29%
Danilho Doekhi14%
Oliver Burke10%
Leopold Querfeld9%
Ilyas Ansah6%
Livan Burcu5%
Tom Rothe4%
Derrick Köhn3%
András Schäfer3%
Stanley N'Soki0%
Diogo Leite0%
Woo-Yeong Jeong0%
Alex Král0%
Robert Skov0%
Frederik Rønnow0%
Josip Juranović0%
Christopher Trimmel0%
Tim Skarke0%
Rani Khedira0%
Janik Haberer0%
Carl Klaus0%
Aljoscha Kemlein0%
Dmytro Bogdanov0%
Eintracht Frankfurt · 2025/26
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Jonathan Burkardt38%
Can Uzun36%
Arnaud Kalimuendo32%
Younes Ebnoutalib20%
Ansgar Knauff18%
Ritsu Doan12%
Ayoube Amaimouni-Echghouyab12%
Rasmus Kristensen11%
Mahmoud Dahoud11%
Michy Batshuayi10%
Nathaniel Brown10%
Jean-Mattéo Bahoya8%
Farès Chaïbi8%
Elye Wahi7%
Hugo Larsson6%
Robin Koch5%
Oscar Højlund4%
Nnamdi Collins3%
Arthur Theate3%
Mario Götze0%
Michael Zetterer0%
Aurélio Buta0%
Ellyes Skhiri0%
Aurèle Amenda0%
Jessic Ngankam0%
Kauã Santos0%
Elias Baum0%
Love Arrhov0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Rasmus Kristensen25%
Arthur Theate24%
Arnaud Kalimuendo21%
Aurèle Amenda21%
Love Arrhov20%
Aurélio Buta17%
Nnamdi Collins17%
Ritsu Doan15%
Oscar Højlund11%
Can Uzun11%
Ansgar Knauff11%
Michy Batshuayi10%
Nathaniel Brown10%
Farès Chaïbi8%
Elye Wahi7%
Jonathan Burkardt7%
Ellyes Skhiri6%
Ayoube Amaimouni-Echghouyab6%
Jean-Mattéo Bahoya5%
Robin Koch5%
Michael Zetterer4%
Mario Götze3%
Mahmoud Dahoud0%
Jessic Ngankam0%
Hugo Larsson0%
Kauã Santos0%
Elias Baum0%
Younes Ebnoutalib0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Elye Wahi21%
Farès Chaïbi21%
Ayoube Amaimouni-Echghouyab18%
Mahmoud Dahoud16%
Nathaniel Brown14%
Can Uzun14%
Ritsu Doan10%
Hugo Larsson9%
Jean-Mattéo Bahoya8%
Mario Götze7%
Jonathan Burkardt7%
Nnamdi Collins7%
Arnaud Kalimuendo5%
Ansgar Knauff5%
Robin Koch5%
Oscar Højlund4%
Rasmus Kristensen0%
Michy Batshuayi0%
Michael Zetterer0%
Aurélio Buta0%
Ellyes Skhiri0%
Aurèle Amenda0%
Jessic Ngankam0%
Arthur Theate0%
Kauã Santos0%
Elias Baum0%
Younes Ebnoutalib0%
Love Arrhov0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Younes Ebnoutalib20%
Can Uzun18%
Jonathan Burkardt17%
Elye Wahi14%
Ansgar Knauff8%
Ritsu Doan8%
Ayoube Amaimouni-Echghouyab6%
Jean-Mattéo Bahoya5%
Arnaud Kalimuendo5%
Arthur Theate3%
Robin Koch2%
Mahmoud Dahoud0%
Mario Götze0%
Rasmus Kristensen0%
Michy Batshuayi0%
Michael Zetterer0%
Aurélio Buta0%
Ellyes Skhiri0%
Aurèle Amenda0%
Jessic Ngankam0%
Nnamdi Collins0%
Farès Chaïbi0%
Nathaniel Brown0%
Hugo Larsson0%
Oscar Højlund0%
Kauã Santos0%
Elias Baum0%
Love Arrhov0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BM (29)
€1076m
BD (29)
€529m
RL (31)
€506m
BL (30)
€499m
VS (54)
€430m
EF (26)
€323m
1H (53)
€309m
SF (30)
€243m
FM0 (29)
€175m
FA (28)
€161m
1FK (74)
€133m
BM (29)
€129m
UB (29)
€123m
WB (33)
€119m
HS (28)
€117m
FS0 (29)
€67m
SE (27)
€52m
SP0 (33)
€43m
Union Berlin's squad is €200m less valuable than Eintracht Frankfurt's (€123m vs €323m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BM (10)
€554m
BL (13)
€246m
RL (12)
€212m
VS (19)
€193m
EF (11)
€174m
BD (8)
€170m
1H (22)
€111m
SF (10)
€96m
1FK (25)
€72m
FA (12)
€64m
BM (11)
€58m
WB (13)
€50m
FM0 (11)
€49m
UB (10)
€46m
HS (11)
€46m
SE (12)
€33m
FS0 (8)
€17m
SP0 (11)
€14m
Union Berlin's attack is €128m less valuable than Eintracht Frankfurt's (€46m vs €174m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BM (6)
€187m
BD (7)
€146m
RL (6)
€109m
1H (11)
€105m
VS (10)
€92m
BL (5)
€91m
FM0 (5)
€80m
EF (4)
€78m
SF (5)
€36m
HS (5)
€34m
WB (5)
€28m
UB (6)
€26m
FS0 (8)
€24m
FA (6)
€23m
BM (5)
€22m
1FK (16)
€19m
SP0 (13)
€18m
SE (3)
€4m
Union Berlin's midfield is €52m less valuable than Eintracht Frankfurt's (€26m vs €78m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BM (13)
€336m
BD (14)
€214m
RL (13)
€185m
BL (12)
€162m
VS (25)
€145m
SF (15)
€110m
1H (20)
€92m
FA (10)
€74m
EF (11)
€72m
UB (13)
€50m
BM (13)
€49m
FM0 (13)
€47m
1FK (33)
€43m
WB (15)
€41m
HS (12)
€37m
FS0 (13)
€26m
SE (12)
€14m
SP0 (9)
€11m
Union Berlin's defence is €21m less valuable than Eintracht Frankfurt's (€50m vs €72m).
Germany: Bundesliga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Germany: Bundesliga stats & trends →
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Bayern München
SC Freiburg
RB Leipzig
FC Augsburg
Borussia Dortmund
SV Elversberg
1. FC Köln
FSV Mainz 05
SC Paderborn 07
Bayer Leverkusen
1899 Hoffenheim
Hamburger SV
Werder Bremen
Borussia Mönchengladbach
FC Schalke 04
VfB Stuttgart