Union St. Gilloise are the clear favourites, with the model assigning a 70 % chance to a home win, a 21 % chance to a draw and a 9 % chance to an away win. The prediction favours a 2-0 scoreline, the most likely outcome with a 14.8 % probability, and expects an average of 2.6 goals, with the most probable total being 2 goals at 26 %. Union’s home form shows they score 2.8 goals per match and concede 1.2, while Anderlecht, playing away, averages 1.38 goals scored and 2.0 conceded against similar opposition. The model’s selections include an Away under 3.5 goals at 99.7 %, Under 7.5 at 99.4 %, Away under 2.5 HT goals at 99.3 %, Away under 2.5 2H goals at 98.7 % with a 4 % edge, Under 6.5 at 98.1 % with a 5 % edge, Home +2 handicap at 97.7 % with a 7 % edge, Away under 2.5 goals at 97.7 % with an 8 % edge, and Away under 1.5 HT goals at 95.0 % with a 5 % edge. Union’s recent draw and Anderlecht’s recent win underline the home advantage.
Results analysis
Union St. Gilloise extended their unbeaten run with a 3-0 win over Anderlecht, confirming the model’s predicted home victory. The pre-match favourite, Home win, was chosen with a 69% probability and proved correct. The model’s selections performed exceptionally well: Away under 3.5 goals hit at 99.6%, Away under 2.5 HT goals at 99.5%, Under 7.5 at 99.4%, Away under 2.5 2H goals at 98.8%, Under 6.5 at 98.2%, Away under 2.5 goals at 97.4%, Home +2 handicap at 97.4%, and Under 5.5 at 95.0%. All picks were settled, and every one of them hit, underscoring the model’s accuracy in this fixture.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Union St. Gilloise win✓ Hit
68.6%
Avg Implied 55.1% · @ 1.70
Edge
+13.5%
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.75
Pinnacle
1.74
Dafabet
1.73
1xBet
1.72
Superbet
1.71
Draw✗ Miss
21.5%
Avg Implied 24.9% · @ 3.76
Edge
-3.4%
Best 5 market prices
Superbet
3.90
Betano
3.90
Pinnacle
3.88
Unibet
3.85
1xBet
3.84
Anderlecht win✗ Miss
9.9%
Avg Implied 20.0% · @ 4.69
Edge
-10.1%
Best 5 market prices
Betano
5.10
Pinnacle
4.91
1xBet
4.86
Dafabet
4.80
10Bet
4.75
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Union St. Gilloise
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.5
Avg scored
2.0
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.60
0.83
1.88
0.62
1.29
1.07
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
2.00
-
-
0.00
2.00
vs Similar (12)
1.67
1.25
1.88
0.88
1.25
2.00
vs Weaker (17)
1.65
0.47
1.88
0.38
1.44
0.56
Clean sheet %
47% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Anderlecht) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Anderlecht
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.2
Avg scored
2.0
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.67
1.47
2.00
1.36
1.38
1.56
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (15)
1.60
1.80
1.83
1.83
1.44
1.78
vs Weaker (15)
1.73
1.13
2.12
1.00
1.29
1.29
Clean sheet %
20% (-5pp vs league)
This opponent (Union St. Gilloise) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
74.5%
@ 1.24-0.8%
Under 1.5
25.5%
@ 3.81+0.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.29
Pinnacle
1.28
Bet365
1.25
BetVictor
1.25
10Bet
1.25
Under
Betfair
4.10
Unibet
4.00
Superbet
4.00
Pinnacle
3.88
Bet365
3.75
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
48.6%
@ 1.81-3.7%
Under 2.5
51.4%
@ 1.98+3.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.88
Pinnacle
1.87
Bet365
1.85
10Bet
1.83
1xBet
1.83
Under
Superbet
2.05
Unibet
2.04
SBO
2.03
Pinnacle
2.02
1xBet
1.99
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
26.8%
@ 2.99-4.6%
Under 3.5
73.2%
@ 1.37+4.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
3.15
Pinnacle
3.13
BetVictor
3.10
10Bet
3.10
Bet365
3.00
Under
Superbet
1.42
Betfair
1.40
Unibet
1.40
Pinnacle
1.39
Betano
1.38
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
41.2%
@ 1.76-11.6%
No
58.8%
@ 1.97+11.6%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Betano
1.80
Betfair
1.80
Superbet
1.76
BetVictor
1.75
1xBet
1.75
No
Superbet
2.02
William Hil
2.00
Unibet
2.00
Bet365
2.00
1xBet
1.97
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-0
14.4%@ 7.73+8.7%
1-0
13.6%@ 6.80+7.1%
1-1
10.0%@ 6.61+3.4%
3-0 ✓
9.6%@ 12.30+6.0%
2-1
9.1%@ 7.31+3.0%
0-0
8.2%@ 10.91+4.1%
3-1
6.0%@ 11.78+2.3%
4-0
4.8%@ 24.87+3.0%
Union St. Gilloise goals ↓
Anderlecht goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
8.2%
3.7%
1.4%
0.3%
0.0%
1
14%
10%
2.9%
0.6%
0.1%
2
14%
9.1%
2.9%
0.6%
0.1%
3
9.6%
6.0%
1.9%
0.4%
0.1%
4
4.8%
3.0%
0.9%
0.2%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Union St. Gilloise goals (down), columns = Anderlecht goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Lommel United
2.67
Club Brugge KV
2.20
Union St. Gilloise
2.15
St. Truiden
1.77
Genk
1.46
Standard Liege
1.43
Anderlecht
1.38
Zulte Waregem
1.33
KVC Westerlo
1.30
KV Mechelen
1.27
Charleroi
1.27
Gent
1.27
Antwerp
1.20
Kortrijk
1.16
Cercle Brugge
1.14
OH Leuven
1.00
SK Beveren
0.99
RAAL La Louvière
0.94
Union St. Gilloise is 0.77 points better than Anderlecht in terms of average points per game (2.15 vs 1.38).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Lommel United
2.33
Club Brugge KV
2.27
Union St. Gilloise
1.65
St. Truiden
1.52
Anderlecht
1.48
Zulte Waregem
1.47
Cercle Brugge
1.47
Genk
1.39
Gent
1.29
KVC Westerlo
1.25
Charleroi
1.25
Kortrijk
1.20
KV Mechelen
1.20
Standard Liege
1.10
Antwerp
1.07
OH Leuven
1.02
SK Beveren
1.02
RAAL La Louvière
0.97
Union St. Gilloise is 0.17 goals better than Anderlecht in terms of goals scored per game (1.65 vs 1.48).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Union St. Gilloise
0.68
Lommel United
0.83
Club Brugge KV
1.12
Standard Liege
1.15
St. Truiden
1.15
Antwerp
1.20
Charleroi
1.25
Genk
1.29
RAAL La Louvière
1.39
Gent
1.39
KVC Westerlo
1.43
Zulte Waregem
1.47
OH Leuven
1.50
KV Mechelen
1.52
Anderlecht
1.55
Kortrijk
1.59
Cercle Brugge
1.61
SK Beveren
1.87
Union St. Gilloise is 0.88 goals better than Anderlecht in terms of goals conceded per game (0.68 vs 1.55).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Club Brugge KV
60%
Genk
58%
St. Truiden
55%
Anderlecht
53%
Union St. Gilloise
52%
Charleroi
50%
Antwerp
49%
KVC Westerlo
49%
KV Mechelen
49%
Gent
49%
Zulte Waregem
48%
Cercle Brugge
48%
OH Leuven
46%
Lommel United
45%
Standard Liege
44%
RAAL La Louvière
39%
Union St. Gilloise is 0.6 percentage points worse than Anderlecht in terms of average possession (52% vs 53%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Union St. Gilloise
For 4.6 · Against 4.8 · Total 9.4
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.7 · Against 1.8 · Total 4.5
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.1 · Against 11.4 · Total 21.5
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Anderlecht
For 6.1 · Against 3.1 · Total 9.2
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.3 · Against 2.5 · Total 4.8
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 14.7 · Against 11.6 · Total 26.3
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Union St. Gilloise
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.1
8.3
9.9
4.1
3.8
4.5
21.8
21.8
21.8
vs Stronger (1)
5.0
-
5.0
5.0
-
5.0
17.0
-
17.0
vs Similar (21)
8.8
7.3
10.6
4.9
4.4
5.4
21.8
21.8
21.8
vs Weaker (28)
9.5
9.3
9.7
3.6
3.3
3.9
22.0
21.8
22.3
% over line
50%
48%
52%
60%
50%
71%
53%
55%
52%
% under line
50%
52%
48%
40%
50%
29%
47%
45%
48%
This opponent (Anderlecht) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Anderlecht
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.5
10.4
10.6
4.6
4.6
4.7
25.0
24.5
25.4
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (25)
9.5
9.0
10.0
4.2
4.2
4.2
24.6
22.4
26.8
vs Weaker (25)
11.2
11.5
11.0
5.1
5.0
5.2
25.2
26.1
24.3
% over line
74%
76%
71%
66%
72%
60%
81%
81%
81%
% under line
26%
24%
29%
34%
28%
40%
19%
19%
19%
This opponent (Union St. Gilloise) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
OH Leuven
11.1
Cercle Brugge
11.0
KVC Westerlo
10.6
Charleroi
10.6
Club Brugge KV
10.5
Anderlecht
10.4
Gent
10.1
Kortrijk
10.1
KV Mechelen
10.0
Standard Liege
10.0
Zulte Waregem
9.9
St. Truiden
9.9
Lommel United
9.8
SK Beveren
9.7
Genk
9.6
Union St. Gilloise
9.3
Antwerp
9.2
RAAL La Louvière
8.8
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Anderlecht
5.3
Union St. Gilloise
4.9
OH Leuven
4.8
SK Beveren
4.4
Standard Liege
4.3
Kortrijk
4.3
Lommel United
4.1
KV Mechelen
4.1
Antwerp
4.1
St. Truiden
4.0
Cercle Brugge
4.0
KVC Westerlo
4.0
Charleroi
3.9
RAAL La Louvière
3.9
Zulte Waregem
3.8
Genk
3.7
Gent
3.6
Club Brugge KV
3.5
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
OH Leuven
25.0
Anderlecht
24.9
RAAL La Louvière
24.6
Antwerp
24.0
Lommel United
23.9
Kortrijk
23.4
SK Beveren
23.3
KVC Westerlo
23.1
Cercle Brugge
22.9
Zulte Waregem
22.8
Genk
22.2
Standard Liege
22.1
Charleroi
21.9
KV Mechelen
21.9
Union St. Gilloise
21.6
St. Truiden
21.2
Gent
21.1
Club Brugge KV
20.0
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
49.6%
@ 1.76-3.0%
Under 9.5
50.4%
@ 1.96+3.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.80
Bet365
1.80
Superbet
1.80
Pinnacle
1.79
10Bet
1.77
Under
Unibet
2.02
Pinnacle
2.01
10Bet
1.95
1xBet
1.95
Marathonbet
1.95
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
65.3%
@ 1.30-5.4%
Under 3.5
34.7%
@ 3.15+5.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.31
Betano
1.29
Under
Betano
3.35
Superbet
2.95
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
62.5%
Under 21.5
37.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Union St. Gilloise or Draw✓ Hit
90.1%
Avg Implied 79.9% · @ 1.17
Edge
+10.3%
69%
22%
10%
covers Union St. Gilloise + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.20
Superbet
1.19
BetVictor
1.18
Bet365
1.18
1xBet
1.18
Union St. Gilloise or Anderlecht✓ Hit
78.5%
Avg Implied 75.7% · @ 1.24
Edge
+2.8%
69%
22%
10%
covers Union St. Gilloise + Anderlecht
Best 5 market prices
Bet365
1.28
1xBet
1.26
Betano
1.26
Superbet
1.26
Marathonbet
1.25
Draw or Anderlecht✗ Miss
31.4%
Avg Implied 44.4% · @ 2.11
Edge
-13.0%
69%
22%
10%
covers Draw + Anderlecht
Best 5 market prices
Betano
2.18
SBO
2.15
Superbet
2.15
1xBet
2.12
Unibet
2.12
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Union St. Gilloise over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
86.3%
@ 1.14+4.6%
Under
13.7%
@ 5.06-4.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.17
Bet365
1.14
Superbet
1.14
Betfair
1.14
10Bet
1.14
Under
Bet365
5.50
Superbet
5.20
Unibet
5.10
Betfair
5.00
10Bet
5.00
Union St. Gilloise over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
59.1%
@ 1.74+5.4%
Under
40.9%
@ 2.02-5.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.80
Marathonbet
1.77
1xBet
1.77
10Bet
1.75
Betano
1.75
Under
Betfair
2.10
Pinnacle
2.07
Superbet
2.05
Unibet
2.04
Marathonbet
2.01
Union St. Gilloise over/under 2.5Actual: Over
Over
32.0%
@ 3.32+4.0%
Under
68.0%
@ 1.29-4.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
3.53
Bet365
3.40
BetVictor
3.40
1xBet
3.35
10Bet
3.35
Under
Superbet
1.32
Betano
1.31
Bet365
1.30
Pinnacle
1.30
Unibet
1.30
Union St. Gilloise over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
14.1%
@ 7.10+1.0%
Under
85.9%
@ 1.07-1.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
8.00
Marathonbet
7.50
1xBet
7.50
Betfair
7.00
Superbet
6.80
Under
Betano
1.09
Superbet
1.08
Bet365
1.08
Betfair
1.07
Unibet
1.06
Anderlecht over/under 0.5Actual: Under
Over
46.7%
@ 1.50-15.2%
Under
53.3%
@ 2.45+15.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.55
Betano
1.53
Superbet
1.50
BetVictor
1.50
10Bet
1.50
Under
Pinnacle
2.53
Betfair
2.50
Bet365
2.50
Unibet
2.48
Superbet
2.47
Anderlecht over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
13.2%
@ 3.46-13.7%
Under
86.8%
@ 1.27+13.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
3.70
Marathonbet
3.56
1xBet
3.56
Bet365
3.50
BetVictor
3.50
Under
Superbet
1.29
Betfair
1.29
Bet365
1.28
Betano
1.28
Pinnacle
1.28
Anderlecht over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
2.6%
@ 9.33-7.4%
Under
97.4%
@ 1.04+7.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
11.00
Marathonbet
10.50
1xBet
10.50
Superbet
8.80
Betfair
8.50
Under
Betano
1.06
Superbet
1.05
Bet365
1.05
Betfair
1.05
Unibet
1.02
Anderlecht over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
0.4%
@ 22.50-3.9%
Under
99.6%
@ 1.01+3.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
29.00
Superbet
26.00
Betano
12.50
Under
Betano
1.01
Bet365
1.01
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Union St. Gilloise, so a minus line means Union St. Gilloise give that many goals of a start and Anderlecht receive them. At -1, Union St. Gilloise must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Union St. Gilloise win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Union St. Gilloise)Actual: Union St. Gilloise
Union St. Gilloise -2
22.4%
@ 5.74+6.7%
Draw -2
21.5%
@ 4.90+3.1%
Anderlecht +2
56.2%
@ 1.36-9.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
6.00
Betfair
6.00
10Bet
5.75
Marathonbet
5.70
Superbet
5.60
Draw
Marathonbet
5.15
Betfair
5.00
Bet365
5.00
Superbet
4.90
10Bet
4.75
Away
Superbet
1.41
Unibet
1.38
Bet365
1.36
10Bet
1.36
Marathonbet
1.35
Handicap -1 (Union St. Gilloise)Actual: Union St. Gilloise
Union St. Gilloise -1
43.8%
@ 2.83+12.0%
Draw -1
24.8%
@ 3.57-0.5%
Anderlecht +1
31.4%
@ 2.10-11.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
3.00
10Bet
2.85
Superbet
2.80
Betfair
2.80
Marathonbet
2.79
Draw
Bet365
3.75
Superbet
3.65
Betfair
3.60
Marathonbet
3.56
Unibet
3.45
Away
Superbet
2.17
Unibet
2.10
10Bet
2.10
Marathonbet
2.10
Bet365
2.10
Handicap +1 (Union St. Gilloise)Actual: Union St. Gilloise
Union St. Gilloise +1
90.1%
@ 1.18+15.0%
Draw +1
7.2%
@ 5.71-8.3%
Anderlecht -1
2.6%
@ 9.48-6.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.20
10Bet
1.20
Betfair
1.17
Unibet
1.17
Marathonbet
1.16
Draw
Bet365
6.50
Unibet
6.00
Betfair
6.00
10Bet
5.75
Marathonbet
4.30
Away
Betfair
11.00
Bet365
11.00
Unibet
10.00
10Bet
9.00
Marathonbet
6.40
Handicap +2 (Union St. Gilloise)Actual: Union St. Gilloise
Union St. Gilloise +2
97.4%
@ 1.04+6.8%
Draw +2
2.2%
@ 14.50-4.3%
Anderlecht -2
0.5%
@ 31.50-2.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.05
Betfair
1.03
Draw
Bet365
15.00
Betfair
14.00
Away
Betfair
34.00
Bet365
29.00
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Union St. Gilloise
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.37
0.88
0.31
0.57
0.43
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
0.00
-
-
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (12)
0.92
0.58
1.12
0.38
0.50
1.00
vs Weaker (17)
0.65
0.24
0.62
0.25
0.67
0.22
Clean sheet %
73% (+48pp vs league)
This opponent (Anderlecht) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Anderlecht
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.80
0.57
0.86
0.75
0.75
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (15)
0.53
1.07
0.33
1.17
0.67
1.00
vs Weaker (15)
0.80
0.53
0.75
0.62
0.86
0.43
Clean sheet %
47% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Union St. Gilloise) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
74.7%
@ 1.34+5.0%
Under 0.5
25.3%
@ 3.08-5.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.42
BetVictor
1.36
Pinnacle
1.36
Superbet
1.35
Marathonbet
1.34
Under
Bet365
3.25
Betfair
3.20
William Hil
3.20
Pinnacle
3.16
Superbet
3.15
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
37.6%
@ 2.60+1.9%
Under 1.5
62.4%
@ 1.45-1.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.80
Pinnacle
2.78
Betfair
2.63
1xBet
2.62
Bet365
2.62
Under
Superbet
1.50
10Bet
1.48
Pinnacle
1.45
BetVictor
1.45
Bet365
1.44
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
13.8%
@ 6.28-1.0%
Under 2.5
86.2%
@ 1.09+1.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
6.50
Bet365
6.50
Marathonbet
6.45
1xBet
6.45
Betano
6.30
Under
Superbet
1.12
Bet365
1.11
Betano
1.11
Betfair
1.10
William Hil
1.10
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Union St. Gilloise over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
61.6%
@ 1.69+6.4%
Under
38.4%
@ 2.07-6.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.75
Pinnacle
1.72
Marathonbet
1.68
Unibet
1.68
1xBet
1.67
Under
Pinnacle
2.14
Superbet
2.10
10Bet
2.10
Unibet
2.08
1xBet
2.07
Union St. Gilloise over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
24.1%
@ 4.31+2.6%
Under
75.9%
@ 1.18-2.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
4.65
Betano
4.45
1xBet
4.30
Unibet
4.30
Superbet
4.15
Under
10Bet
1.20
Superbet
1.19
Unibet
1.18
Betano
1.18
1xBet
1.17
Union St. Gilloise over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
5.5%
@ 10.67-3.3%
Under
94.5%
@ 1.02+3.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
12.00
Betano
10.00
10Bet
10.00
Under
Betano
1.03
10Bet
1.02
Superbet
1.02
Anderlecht over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
30.8%
@ 2.60-5.0%
Under
69.2%
@ 1.45+5.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.82
Betano
2.67
Marathonbet
2.58
Superbet
2.57
Unibet
2.55
Under
10Bet
1.48
1xBet
1.47
Unibet
1.45
Pinnacle
1.44
Betano
1.44
Anderlecht over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
5.2%
@ 9.31-4.8%
Under
94.8%
@ 1.04+4.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
11.25
1xBet
9.50
Superbet
9.10
Unibet
9.00
10Bet
8.50
Under
Betano
1.05
10Bet
1.04
Unibet
1.04
Superbet
1.04
1xBet
1.01
Anderlecht over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.5%
@ 39.00-99.5%
Under
99.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
39.00
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Union St. Gilloise
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
0.47
1.00
0.31
0.71
0.64
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
2.00
-
-
0.00
2.00
vs Similar (12)
0.75
0.67
0.75
0.50
0.75
1.00
vs Weaker (17)
1.00
0.24
1.25
0.12
0.78
0.33
Clean sheet %
67% (+42pp vs league)
This opponent (Anderlecht) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Anderlecht
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
0.67
1.43
0.50
0.62
0.81
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (15)
1.07
0.73
1.50
0.67
0.78
0.78
vs Weaker (15)
0.93
0.60
1.38
0.38
0.43
0.86
Clean sheet %
47% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Union St. Gilloise) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
84.5%
@ 1.20+7.1%
Under 0.5
15.5%
@ 4.10-7.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.23
William Hil
1.22
Superbet
1.20
Bet365
1.20
Marathonbet
1.18
Under
Bet365
4.33
Unibet
4.30
Marathonbet
4.10
1xBet
4.10
Betano
4.05
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
51.7%
@ 1.98+4.6%
Under 1.5
48.3%
@ 1.76-4.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
2.04
1xBet
2.04
Betano
2.02
Superbet
2.00
William Hil
1.95
Under
Bet365
1.80
Unibet
1.80
Betano
1.78
William Hil
1.75
Superbet
1.73
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
22.3%
@ 4.12-0.2%
Under 2.5
77.7%
@ 1.20+0.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
4.33
Marathonbet
4.30
1xBet
4.30
Bet365
4.00
Betano
4.00
Under
Betano
1.23
Unibet
1.22
Bet365
1.22
Superbet
1.21
William Hil
1.18
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Union St. Gilloise over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
73.4%
@ 1.49+11.0%
Under
26.6%
@ 2.47-11.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.50
10Bet
1.50
1xBet
1.48
Superbet
1.47
Under
Superbet
2.50
Betano
2.50
1xBet
2.48
10Bet
2.40
Union St. Gilloise over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
36.5%
@ 3.29+8.4%
Under
63.5%
@ 1.29-8.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
3.45
Marathonbet
3.34
Superbet
3.25
1xBet
3.20
Betano
3.20
Under
Betano
1.32
Superbet
1.30
1xBet
1.29
Marathonbet
1.27
10Bet
1.25
Union St. Gilloise over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
11.2%
@ 8.15-0.1%
Under
88.8%
@ 1.04+0.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
8.70
10Bet
8.50
Superbet
8.10
Betano
7.30
Under
Betano
1.07
Superbet
1.05
10Bet
1.04
1xBet
1.02
Anderlecht over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
36.7%
@ 2.15-6.4%
Under
63.3%
@ 1.63+6.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
2.16
Superbet
2.15
Betano
2.15
10Bet
2.15
1xBet
2.12
Under
Betano
1.65
1xBet
1.64
Superbet
1.63
10Bet
1.62
Marathonbet
1.60
Anderlecht over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
6.6%
@ 7.00-6.6%
Under
93.4%
@ 1.07+6.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
7.90
10Bet
7.00
1xBet
7.00
Superbet
6.70
Betano
6.40
Under
Betano
1.10
10Bet
1.07
Superbet
1.07
1xBet
1.05
Marathonbet
1.04
Anderlecht over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
1.2%
@ 19.50-3.7%
Under
98.8%
@ 1.01+3.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
23.00
10Bet
23.00
Betano
12.50
Under
10Bet
1.01
Betano
1.01
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Away under 3.5 goals
99.6%
1.01
Betano
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
+3.9%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 HT goals
99.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 7.5
99.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 2H goals
98.8%
1.01
10Bet
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
+3.7%
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
98.2%
1.01
Betano
1.02
Superbet
1.01
1xBet
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
+2.5%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
97.4%
1.04
Betano
1.06
Superbet
1.05
Bet365
1.05
Betfair
1.05
Unibet
1.02
+7.4%
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
97.4%
1.04
Bet365
1.05
Betfair
1.03
-
-
-
+6.8%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
95.0%
1.04
Betano
1.05
Superbet
1.05
Bet365
1.04
Unibet
1.04
Betfair
1.04
+3.7%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 HT goals
94.8%
1.04
Betano
1.05
10Bet
1.04
Unibet
1.04
Superbet
1.04
1xBet
1.01
+4.8%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 HT goals
94.5%
1.02
Betano
1.03
10Bet
1.02
Superbet
1.02
-
-
+3.3%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 2H goals
93.4%
1.07
Betano
1.10
10Bet
1.07
Superbet
1.07
1xBet
1.05
Marathonbet
1.04
+6.6%
✓ Hit
Home or Draw
90.1%
1.17
Betano
1.20
Superbet
1.19
BetVictor
1.18
Bet365
1.18
1xBet
1.18
+10.3%
✓ Hit
Home +1 handicap
90.1%
1.18
Bet365
1.20
10Bet
1.20
Betfair
1.17
Unibet
1.17
Marathonbet
1.16
+15.0%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 2H goals
88.8%
1.04
Betano
1.07
Superbet
1.05
10Bet
1.04
1xBet
1.02
-
+0.1%
✓ Hit
Under 4.5
87.5%
1.12
Betano
1.15
Superbet
1.15
Pinnacle
1.14
Betfair
1.13
Unibet
1.13
+3.6%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 goals
86.8%
1.27
Superbet
1.29
Betfair
1.29
Bet365
1.28
Betano
1.28
Pinnacle
1.28
+13.7%
✓ Hit
Home over 0.5 goals
86.3%
1.14
Betano
1.17
Bet365
1.14
Superbet
1.14
Betfair
1.14
10Bet
1.14
+4.6%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 HT goals
86.2%
1.09
Superbet
1.12
Bet365
1.11
Betano
1.11
Betfair
1.10
William Hil
1.10
+1.0%
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
85.9%
1.07
Betano
1.09
Superbet
1.08
Bet365
1.08
Betfair
1.07
Unibet
1.06
-1.0%
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 2H goals
84.5%
1.20
Betano
1.23
William Hil
1.22
Superbet
1.20
Bet365
1.20
Marathonbet
1.18
+7.1%
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
82.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home or Away
78.5%
1.24
Bet365
1.28
1xBet
1.26
Betano
1.26
Superbet
1.26
Marathonbet
1.25
+2.8%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 2H goals
77.7%
1.20
Betano
1.23
Unibet
1.22
Bet365
1.22
Superbet
1.21
William Hil
1.18
+0.2%
✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
77.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 HT goals
75.9%
1.18
10Bet
1.20
Superbet
1.19
Unibet
1.18
Betano
1.18
1xBet
1.17
-2.6%
✗ Miss
Over 0.5 HT goals
74.7%
1.34
Betano
1.42
BetVictor
1.36
Pinnacle
1.36
Superbet
1.35
Marathonbet
1.34
+5.0%
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
74.5%
1.24
Betano
1.29
Pinnacle
1.28
Bet365
1.25
BetVictor
1.25
10Bet
1.25
-0.8%
✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners
73.7%
1.36
Unibet
1.41
Superbet
1.38
Betano
1.34
1xBet
1.34
Marathonbet
1.31
+6.0%
✓ Hit
Home over 0.5 2H goals
73.4%
1.49
Betano
1.50
10Bet
1.50
1xBet
1.48
Superbet
1.47
-
+11.0%
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
73.2%
1.37
Superbet
1.42
Betfair
1.40
Unibet
1.40
Pinnacle
1.39
Betano
1.38
+4.6%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards
70.7%
1.60
Betano
1.70
Unibet
1.56
Superbet
1.54
-
-
+12.9%
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Union St. Gilloise
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
R. Florucz50%
Guilherme Smith50%
R. Mofokeng50%
D. Olaru33%
M. Biondic33%
K. Mac Allister25%
L. Patris25%
B. Zeneli25%
A. Zorgane0%
R. Schoofs0%
K. Van de Perre0%
Ondrej Kricfalusi0%
M. Sylla0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
K. Mac Allister100%
K. Van de Perre50%
R. Florucz25%
Guilherme Smith25%
M. Sylla25%
A. Zorgane0%
R. Schoofs0%
D. Olaru0%
L. Patris0%
M. Biondic0%
B. Zeneli0%
Ondrej Kricfalusi0%
R. Mofokeng0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
B. Zeneli75%
R. Schoofs50%
D. Olaru33%
M. Biondic33%
L. Patris25%
Guilherme Smith25%
A. Zorgane0%
K. Mac Allister0%
R. Florucz0%
K. Van de Perre0%
Ondrej Kricfalusi0%
R. Mofokeng0%
M. Sylla0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
B. Zeneli50%
D. Olaru33%
Guilherme Smith25%
A. Zorgane0%
K. Mac Allister0%
R. Schoofs0%
R. Florucz0%
L. Patris0%
M. Biondic0%
K. Van de Perre0%
Ondrej Kricfalusi0%
R. Mofokeng0%
M. Sylla0%
Anderlecht
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Joshua Nga Kana33%
D. Sikan25%
Ludwig Augustinsson0%
Colin Coosemans0%
Oliver Antman0%
Enric Llansana0%
Giulian Biancone0%
M. Kana0%
L. Pétrot0%
Moussa Ndiaye0%
Lukáš Ambros0%
Mihajlo Cvetković0%
A. Maamar0%
Noa Cobiella0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Giulian Biancone50%
M. Kana50%
Enric Llansana33%
D. Sikan25%
Ludwig Augustinsson0%
Colin Coosemans0%
Oliver Antman0%
L. Pétrot0%
Moussa Ndiaye0%
Lukáš Ambros0%
Mihajlo Cvetković0%
A. Maamar0%
Joshua Nga Kana0%
Noa Cobiella0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
A. Maamar50%
Ludwig Augustinsson0%
Colin Coosemans0%
Oliver Antman0%
Enric Llansana0%
Giulian Biancone0%
D. Sikan0%
M. Kana0%
L. Pétrot0%
Moussa Ndiaye0%
Lukáš Ambros0%
Mihajlo Cvetković0%
Joshua Nga Kana0%
Noa Cobiella0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
D. Sikan75%
A. Maamar25%
Ludwig Augustinsson0%
Colin Coosemans0%
Oliver Antman0%
Enric Llansana0%
Giulian Biancone0%
M. Kana0%
L. Pétrot0%
Moussa Ndiaye0%
Lukáš Ambros0%
Mihajlo Cvetković0%
Joshua Nga Kana0%
Noa Cobiella0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CBK (27)
€196m
GEN (30)
€113m
USG (26)
€98m
AND (32)
€91m
GEN (32)
€58m
SL (27)
€54m
KM (31)
€45m
CB (26)
€40m
KW (26)
€38m
ANT (24)
€33m
CHA (21)
€31m
OL (27)
€30m
ST (23)
€30m
LU (25)
€26m
RLL (30)
€23m
ZW (27)
€20m
KOR (24)
€18m
SB (24)
€12m
Union St. Gilloise's squad is €6m more valuable than Anderlecht's (€98m vs €91m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CBK (10)
€92m
AND (12)
€50m
GEN (10)
€39m
USG (10)
€32m
CB (9)
€18m
GEN (11)
€17m
KW (11)
€16m
SL (9)
€14m
KM (9)
€13m
CHA (8)
€13m
ST (10)
€11m
ANT (10)
€9m
KOR (9)
€9m
ZW (10)
€8m
LU (10)
€8m
OL (8)
€7m
RLL (10)
€6m
SB (9)
€4m
Union St. Gilloise's attack is €18m less valuable than Anderlecht's (€32m vs €50m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
USG (7)
€38m
CBK (5)
€23m
GEN (8)
€22m
GEN (5)
€19m
AND (5)
€18m
LU (5)
€15m
ANT (4)
€10m
KW (5)
€9m
SL (7)
€8m
KM (7)
€7m
OL (6)
€6m
RLL (7)
€6m
CB (6)
€5m
ST (4)
€4m
CHA (5)
€4m
KOR (5)
€4m
ZW (4)
€4m
SB (5)
€3m
Union St. Gilloise's midfield is €20m more valuable than Anderlecht's (€38m vs €18m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CBK (12)
€81m
GEN (15)
€55m
SL (11)
€31m
USG (9)
€28m
KM (15)
€25m
AND (15)
€24m
GEN (13)
€19m
OL (13)
€17m
CB (11)
€17m
ANT (10)
€14m
CHA (8)
€14m
ST (9)
€14m
KW (10)
€12m
RLL (13)
€11m
ZW (13)
€9m
KOR (10)
€5m
SB (10)
€5m
LU (10)
€4m
Union St. Gilloise's defence is €4m more valuable than Anderlecht's (€28m vs €24m).
Belgium: Jupiler Pro League 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Belgium: Jupiler Pro League stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Charleroi
Gent
Club Brugge KV
Zulte Waregem
Standard Liege
Genk
Lommel United
Antwerp
St. Truiden
SK Beveren
Cercle Brugge
KV Mechelen
RAAL La Louvière
KVC Westerlo
OH Leuven
Kortrijk