Universitatea Craiova vs Levski Sofia Result & Analysis

Universitatea Craiova are tipped to win this Champions League tie, with the model assigning a 52% chance to a home victory, 27% to a draw and 22% to a Levski Sofia win. The expected total goals hover at 2.7, but the most probable total is two goals, a 26% chance. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, with a 12.7% probability. Craiova’s home form shows they average 2.29 goals scored and only 0.57 conceded against similarly ranked opponents, while Levski Sofia, on the road, averages 1.0 goal scored and 1.0 conceded. The model’s selections include Under 5.5 cards at 77.8%, Over 2.5 cards at 76.8%, Over 1.5 goals at 75.8% (hit), Under 11.5 corners at 74.4%, Over 19.5 fouls at 73.6%, Under 25.5 fouls at 73.6% and Under 3.5 goals at 71.9% (miss). The match is expected to be a tightly contested affair, with Craiova’s recent win and Levski’s unbeaten streak both adding intrigue.

The match finished 2-2, a draw that stunned the pre-match favourite, Universitatea Craiova, who had been tipped to win with a 52% probability. The model’s call was therefore wrong. The game’s final score matched the most likely 1-1 outcome, yet the actual result was a stalemate. The model’s selection for Over 1.5 goals hit, with a 75.8% chance, while its Under 3.5 selection missed, at 71.9%. Universitatea Craiova were coming off a win, extending a recent run, whereas Levski Sofia remained unbeaten in their last five. The upset underlines how even a 52% favourite can falter.