PythiaFootballPythiaFootballBETA Free Picks Fixtures League Stats Team Stats Player Stats Pro Picks PRO Research Head-to-Head Validation Pricing Log in
← Back

Valmiera / BSS vs BFC Daugavpils Result & Analysis

Date: 22/04/2024
Time: 14:30
Final 0-1
Valmiera / BSS
Valmiera / BSS
Vs
55%
29%
16%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
BFC Daugavpils
BFC Daugavpils
Latvia: Virsliga
Referee: -

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Valmiera / BSS win✗ Miss
54.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
29.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
BFC Daugavpils win✓ Hit
15.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

Valmiera / BSSValmiera / BSS

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-414L10W11D20W10W21W13L11D01L30WA·MET29/10A·FS 05/11H·RIG11/11A·MET10/03A·RĪG15/03H·RIG31/03A·AUD05/04H·GRO09/04H·FK 14/04A·FS 18/04
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.1
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.601.101.801.071.401.13
vs Stronger (3)1.001.671.501.000.003.00
vs Similar (12)1.001.250.831.331.171.17
vs Weaker (15)2.200.872.710.861.750.88
Clean sheet %37% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (BFC Daugavpils) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

BFC DaugavpilsBFC Daugavpils

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-313L21W01L00D20W31W10W11D02L01LA·RĪG29/10H·FK 05/11A·AUD11/11A·FS 09/03H·GRO16/03H·TUK30/03A·MET03/04H·RĪG07/04A·RIG12/04A·AUD17/04
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.031.201.711.140.441.25
vs Stronger (10)0.401.600.251.000.502.00
vs Similar (17)1.291.062.111.110.381.00
vs Weaker (3)1.670.674.002.000.500.00
Clean sheet %30% (+2pp vs league)
This opponent (Valmiera / BSS) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%14%21%28%14%024%128%219%310%44%52%6+
The model estimates around 2.1 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
62.4%
Under 1.5
37.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
34.2%
Under 2.5
65.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
15.6%
Under 3.5
84.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
37.3%
No
62.7%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-0
16.8%
0-0
13.8%
2-0
12.8%
1-1
12.8%
2-1
8.3%
0-1 ✓
7.0%
3-0
6.1%
3-1
3.9%
Valmiera / BSS goals ↓
BFC Daugavpils goals →
01234
014%7.0%2.6%0.6%0.1%
117%13%3.7%0.8%0.1%
213%8.3%2.7%0.6%0.1%
36.1%3.9%1.3%0.3%0.0%
42.2%1.4%0.5%0.1%0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Valmiera / BSS goals (down), columns = BFC Daugavpils goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Rīgas FS
2.50
Riga
2.42
Valmiera / BSS
1.78
Auda
1.67
BFC Daugavpils
1.17
FK Liepaja
1.08
Metta / LU
1.00
Tukums
0.97
Grobiņa
0.81
FS Jelgava
0.69
Valmiera / BSS is 0.61 points better than BFC Daugavpils in terms of average points per game (1.78 vs 1.17).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Rīgas FS
2.86
Riga
2.75
Valmiera / BSS
2.08
Auda
1.75
BFC Daugavpils
1.19
Tukums
1.06
FK Liepaja
1.03
Grobiņa
0.94
Metta / LU
0.94
FS Jelgava
0.78
Valmiera / BSS is 0.89 goals better than BFC Daugavpils in terms of goals scored per game (2.08 vs 1.19).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Riga
0.64
Rīgas FS
0.69
Auda
0.94
Valmiera / BSS
1.08
FK Liepaja
1.56
BFC Daugavpils
1.67
Metta / LU
2.11
Grobiņa
2.17
Tukums
2.25
FS Jelgava
2.28
Valmiera / BSS is 0.58 goals better than BFC Daugavpils in terms of goals conceded per game (1.08 vs 1.67).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Valmiera / BSSValmiera / BSS

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-211D10W00D00D10W01L02L01L01L10WA·MET29/10A·FS 05/11H·RIG11/11A·MET10/03A·RĪG15/03H·RIG31/03A·AUD05/04H·GRO09/04H·FK 14/04A·FS 18/04
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.700.500.730.530.670.47
vs Stronger (3)0.000.670.000.500.001.00
vs Similar (12)0.420.580.330.500.500.67
vs Weaker (15)1.070.401.290.570.880.25
Clean sheet %53% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (BFC Daugavpils) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

BFC DaugavpilsBFC Daugavpils

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
10-111D10W00D00D10W10W00D01L01L01LA·RĪG29/10H·FK 05/11A·AUD11/11A·FS 09/03H·GRO16/03H·TUK30/03A·MET03/04H·RĪG07/04A·RIG12/04A·AUD17/04
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.4
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.470.570.570.570.380.56
vs Stronger (10)0.300.600.000.250.500.83
vs Similar (17)0.590.530.780.560.380.50
vs Weaker (3)0.330.671.002.000.000.00
Clean sheet %57% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Valmiera / BSS) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Valmiera / BSS over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Valmiera / BSS over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Valmiera / BSS over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
BFC Daugavpils over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
BFC Daugavpils over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
BFC Daugavpils over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

Valmiera / BSSValmiera / BSS

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-303L00D11D20W00D20W11D10W00D20WA·MET29/10A·FS 05/11H·RIG11/11A·MET10/03A·RĪG15/03H·RIG31/03A·AUD05/04H·GRO09/04H·FK 14/04A·FS 18/04
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.900.601.070.530.730.67
vs Stronger (3)1.001.001.500.500.002.00
vs Similar (12)0.580.670.500.830.670.50
vs Weaker (15)1.130.471.430.290.880.62
Clean sheet %63% (+35pp vs league)
This opponent (BFC Daugavpils) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

BFC DaugavpilsBFC Daugavpils

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-202L11D01L00D10W21W10W10W01L00DA·RĪG29/10H·FK 05/11A·AUD11/11A·FS 09/03H·GRO16/03H·TUK30/03A·MET03/04H·RĪG07/04A·RIG12/04A·AUD17/04
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.570.631.140.570.060.69
vs Stronger (10)0.101.000.250.750.001.17
vs Similar (17)0.710.531.330.560.000.50
vs Weaker (3)1.330.003.000.000.500.00
Clean sheet %53% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Valmiera / BSS) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Valmiera / BSS over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Valmiera / BSS over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Valmiera / BSS over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
BFC Daugavpils over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
BFC Daugavpils over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
BFC Daugavpils over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Under 3.584.4%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RIG (27)
€16m
RF (29)
€11m
AUD (25)
€6m
FL (21)
€5m
GRO (25)
€3m
FJ (23)
€3m
BD (21)
€3m
TUK (20)
€2m
M/L (4)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RIG (10)
€7m
RF (15)
€6m
AUD (11)
€3m
FL (7)
€2m
GRO (10)
€1m
FJ (8)
€1m
TUK (7)
€1m
BD (7)
€1m
M/L (1)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RIG (5)
€3m
RF (4)
€2m
FL (4)
€1m
BD (6)
€1m
GRO (6)
€1m
FJ (5)
€0m
AUD (3)
€0m
TUK (3)
€0m
M/L (1)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RIG (12)
€6m
RF (10)
€3m
AUD (11)
€3m
FL (10)
€2m
FJ (10)
€1m
GRO (9)
€1m
TUK (10)
€1m
BD (8)
€1m
M/L (2)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

8 previous meetings
3
V/B wins
4
Draws
1
BD wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Valmiera / BSS vs BFC Daugavpils · H/A from V/B
DateH/AGameScore
07/10/23ABFC Daugavpils Vs V/B0-0
22/07/23HV/B Vs BFC Daugavpils0-1
22/05/23HV/B Vs BFC Daugavpils1-0
11/04/23ABFC Daugavpils Vs V/B1-1
02/10/22ABFC Daugavpils Vs V/B1-1
16/07/22HV/B Vs BFC Daugavpils5-1
09/05/22HV/B Vs BFC Daugavpils1-0
02/04/22ABFC Daugavpils Vs V/B0-0

Valmiera / BSSValmiera / BSS

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
18/04/24AFS Jelgava Vs V/B0-3
14/04/24HV/B Vs FK Liepaja0-1
09/04/24HV/B Vs Grobiņa1-1
05/04/24AAuda Vs V/B3-1
31/03/24HV/B Vs Riga2-1
15/03/24ARīgas FS Vs V/B0-1
10/03/24AMetta / LU Vs V/B0-2
11/11/23HV/B Vs Riga1-1
05/11/23AFS Jelgava Vs V/B0-1
29/10/23AMetta / LU Vs V/B4-1

BFC DaugavpilsBFC Daugavpils

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
17/04/24AAuda Vs BD1-0
12/04/24ARiga Vs BD2-0
07/04/24HBD Vs Rīgas FS1-1
03/04/24AMetta / LU Vs BD0-1
30/03/24HBD Vs Tukums3-1
16/03/24HBD Vs Grobiņa2-0
09/03/24AFS Jelgava Vs BD0-0
11/11/23AAuda Vs BD1-0
05/11/23HBD Vs FK Liepaja2-1
29/10/23ARīgas FS Vs BD3-1

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Valmiera / BSS
Valmiera / BSS
Latvia: Virsliga
Recent: 5 Wins / 2 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWLDLW1.50
HomeDDWDL1.58
AwayWWWLW1.42
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %42%42%42%
AVG goals2.502.622.38
Over 1.5 %70%71%69%
Over 2.5 %46%42%50%
Over 3.5 %20%21%19%
Scored1.441.671.23
Conceded1.060.961.15
BTTS44%58%31%
Clean Sheet38%29%46%
Corners8.337.339.33
Cards3.834.673.00
BFC Daugavpils
BFC Daugavpils
Latvia: Virsliga
Recent: 4 Wins / 2 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWWDLL1.06
HomeLWWWD1.31
AwayLDWLL0.79
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %26%31%21%
AVG goals2.502.852.12
Over 1.5 %70%88%50%
Over 2.5 %40%38%42%
Over 3.5 %26%27%25%
Scored1.101.460.71
Conceded1.401.381.42
BTTS46%62%29%
Clean Sheet22%15%29%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Rīgas FSRīgas FS3690
81%
2.5
10325+78
3.6
92%
75%
44%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
11
6232.90.7
-
2RigaRiga3687
75%
2.4
9923+76
3.4
81%
61%
39%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
16
7362.80.6
-
3Valmiera / BSSValmiera / BSS3664
53%
1.8
7539+36
3.2
78%
61%
42%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.11.1
-
4AudaAuda3660
50%
1.7
6334+29
2.7
75%
58%
31%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
3031.80.9
-
5BFC DaugavpilsBFC Daugavpils3642
31%
1.2
4360-17
2.9
72%
53%
36%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1111.21.7
-
6FK LiepajaFK Liepaja3639
28%
1.1
3756-19
2.6
75%
50%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
2121.01.6
-
7Metta / LUMetta / LU3636
28%
1.0
3476-42
3.1
83%
61%
36%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.92.1
-
8TukumsTukums3635
25%
1.0
3881-43
3.3
81%
67%
39%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.12.2
-
9GrobiņaGrobiņa3629
22%
0.8
3478-44
3.1
89%
61%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1110.92.2
-
10FS JelgavaFS Jelgava3625
17%
0.7
2882-54
3.1
75%
58%
36%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1010.82.3
-
Latvia: Virsliga 2024/25 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Latvia: Virsliga stats & trends →

← all matches