This opponent (Tondela) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Tondela
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.23
1.53
1.27
1.60
1.20
1.47
vs Stronger (7)
0.71
2.14
0.80
1.80
0.50
3.00
vs Similar (21)
1.48
1.43
1.75
1.75
1.31
1.23
vs Weaker (2)
0.50
0.50
0.50
0.50
-
-
Clean sheet %
10% (-18pp vs league)
This opponent (Vilafranquense) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
75.0%
Under 1.5
25.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
48.8%
Under 2.5
51.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
27.0%
Under 3.5
73.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
52.7%
No
47.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1 ✓
13.1%
0-1
10.3%
1-2
9.5%
0-2
9.1%
0-0
8.4%
1-0
6.3%
2-1
6.2%
1-3
5.0%
Vilafranquense goals ↓
Tondela goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
8.4%
10%
9.1%
4.8%
1.9%
1
6.3%
13%
9.5%
5.0%
2.0%
2
3.9%
6.2%
4.9%
2.6%
1.0%
3
1.4%
2.2%
1.7%
0.9%
0.4%
4
0.4%
0.6%
0.4%
0.2%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Vilafranquense goals (down), columns = Tondela goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Moreirense
2.32
Farense
2.03
Vilaverdense
2.00
Estrela
1.85
Academico Viseu
1.56
FC Porto B
1.50
Mafra
1.38
Vilafranquense
1.35
Feirense
1.35
Torreense
1.29
Oliveirense
1.26
Tondela
1.18
Penafiel
1.15
Leixoes
1.15
Nacional
1.15
Benfica B
1.12
Belenenses
1.00
Trofense
0.94
SC Covilha
0.82
Vilafranquense is 0.18 points better than Tondela in terms of average points per game (1.35 vs 1.18).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Moreirense
2.26
Farense
1.68
Estrela
1.62
Benfica B
1.53
Oliveirense
1.50
Academico Viseu
1.50
FC Porto B
1.41
Mafra
1.35
Feirense
1.26
Vilafranquense
1.24
Belenenses
1.17
Leixoes
1.12
Torreense
1.12
Penafiel
1.06
Tondela
1.03
Nacional
1.03
Vilaverdense
1.00
SC Covilha
0.91
Trofense
0.91
Vilafranquense is 0.21 goals better than Tondela in terms of goals scored per game (1.24 vs 1.03).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Vilaverdense
0.50
Farense
1.00
Tondela
1.03
Estrela
1.03
Vilafranquense
1.06
Feirense
1.09
Moreirense
1.12
FC Porto B
1.18
Torreense
1.21
Academico Viseu
1.32
Nacional
1.35
Penafiel
1.38
Leixoes
1.44
Mafra
1.44
Oliveirense
1.47
Trofense
1.50
SC Covilha
1.68
Belenenses
1.69
Benfica B
1.71
Vilafranquense is 0.03 goals worse than Tondela in terms of goals conceded per game (1.06 vs 1.03).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Oliveirense
56%
Estrela
54%
Farense
53%
Mafra
53%
Moreirense
53%
Benfica B
52%
Vilafranquense
52%
Academico Viseu
51%
Torreense
51%
Penafiel
50%
FC Porto B
50%
Tondela
48%
Feirense
47%
SC Covilha
47%
Leixoes
46%
Belenenses
46%
Nacional
46%
Trofense
40%
Vilafranquense is 3.2 percentage points better than Tondela in terms of average possession (52% vs 48%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Vilafranquense
For 8.5 · Against 2.5 · Total 11.0
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 4.0 · Against 3.0 · Total 7.0
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 19.5 · Against 11.5 · Total 31.0
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Tondela
For 3.3 · Against 6.1 · Total 9.4
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.8 · Against 3.3 · Total 6.1
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.9 · Against 14.0 · Total 25.9
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Vilafranquense
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (11)
11.0
8.0
14.0
1.3
1.6
1.0
31.0
37.0
25.0
vs Stronger (2)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Similar (9)
11.0
8.0
14.0
1.6
2.0
1.2
31.0
37.0
25.0
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
50%
0%
100%
18%
20%
17%
100%
100%
100%
% under line
50%
100%
0%
82%
80%
83%
0%
0%
0%
This opponent (Tondela) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Tondela
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.5
9.8
9.2
5.0
5.0
5.0
29.7
30.3
29.1
vs Stronger (14)
9.1
10.0
8.0
6.0
5.8
6.3
28.4
27.0
30.3
vs Similar (34)
9.7
9.7
9.6
4.8
5.2
4.5
30.3
32.3
28.5
vs Weaker (2)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
-
% over line
44%
43%
45%
76%
73%
79%
90%
90%
90%
% under line
56%
57%
55%
24%
27%
21%
10%
10%
10%
This opponent (Vilafranquense) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
FC Porto B
15.5
Estrela
15.0
Leixoes
14.5
Trofense
14.0
SC Covilha
12.3
Torreense
11.5
Benfica B
11.5
Nacional
11.1
Vilafranquense
11.0
Farense
10.8
Penafiel
10.5
Belenenses
10.2
Moreirense
10.1
Feirense
10.0
Tondela
9.8
Academico Viseu
8.0
Oliveirense
8.0
Mafra
8.0
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Benfica B
7.5
Oliveirense
7.0
Vilafranquense
7.0
Moreirense
6.6
Torreense
6.5
Academico Viseu
6.5
Mafra
6.3
Belenenses
6.1
Leixoes
6.0
Trofense
6.0
Penafiel
6.0
Tondela
5.8
Farense
5.7
FC Porto B
5.5
Nacional
5.3
Feirense
5.0
Estrela
5.0
SC Covilha
4.7
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Penafiel
37.0
Feirense
35.6
Torreense
35.0
Farense
33.0
Oliveirense
33.0
Nacional
31.2
Vilafranquense
31.0
Belenenses
30.8
Mafra
29.7
Leixoes
29.5
Tondela
29.4
Moreirense
28.8
Estrela
27.0
FC Porto B
26.0
SC Covilha
24.7
Trofense
24.5
Academico Viseu
22.0
Benfica B
20.0
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
63.0%
Under 9.5
37.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
90.9%
Under 3.5
9.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
92.0%
Under 21.5
8.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Vilafranquense
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.55
0.73
0.80
1.00
0.33
0.50
vs Stronger (2)
1.00
1.00
2.00
2.00
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (9)
0.44
0.67
0.50
0.75
0.40
0.60
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
45% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Tondela) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Tondela
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.63
0.67
0.73
0.60
0.53
vs Stronger (7)
0.14
0.86
0.20
1.00
0.00
0.50
vs Similar (21)
0.86
0.57
1.12
0.62
0.69
0.54
vs Weaker (2)
0.00
0.50
0.00
0.50
-
-
Clean sheet %
53% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Vilafranquense) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Vilafranquense over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vilafranquense over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vilafranquense over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tondela over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tondela over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tondela over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Vilafranquense
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.45
0.60
0.40
0.83
0.50
vs Stronger (2)
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
vs Similar (9)
0.67
0.56
0.50
0.50
0.80
0.60
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
64% (+35pp vs league)
This opponent (Tondela) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Tondela
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.90
0.60
0.87
0.60
0.93
vs Stronger (7)
0.57
1.29
0.60
0.80
0.50
2.50
vs Similar (21)
0.62
0.86
0.62
1.12
0.62
0.69
vs Weaker (2)
0.50
0.00
0.50
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
37% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (Vilafranquense) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Vilafranquense over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vilafranquense over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vilafranquense over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tondela over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tondela over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tondela over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 2.5 cards
96.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
96.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
92.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 3.5 cards
90.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 23.5 fouls
84.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 4.5 cards
81.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
75.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 8.5 corners
74.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
73.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 25.5 fouls
72.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Tondela · 2025/26
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Rony Lopes25%
Ivan Cavaleiro15%
Pedro Henryque15%
Bebeto12%
Emmanuel Maviram10%
João Silva8%
Yefrei Rodriguez8%
Cicero6%
Makan Aïko6%
Rodrigo Conceição5%
Jordan Siebatcheu5%
Sphephelo Sithole4%
Joe Hodge4%
Tiago Manso4%
Benjamin Mbunga-Kimpioka0%
Arjen Van Der Heide0%
João Afonso0%
André Ceitil0%
Hélder Tavares0%
Christian Marques0%
Moudja Sie Ouattara0%
Rémy Vita0%
Xabi Huarte0%
Hugo Félix0%
Brayan Medina0%
Bernardo Fontes0%
Juan Rodríguez0%
Afonso Rodrigues0%
Miro0%
Yarlen0%
Moudjatovic0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Rémy Vita50%
Brayan Medina36%
Cicero33%
Benjamin Mbunga-Kimpioka30%
Tiago Manso25%
Miro25%
João Afonso23%
Sphephelo Sithole23%
Pedro Henryque21%
Rodrigo Conceição20%
Emmanuel Maviram20%
Christian Marques19%
Rony Lopes19%
Bebeto17%
Afonso Rodrigues14%
Jordan Siebatcheu14%
Joe Hodge12%
Makan Aïko11%
Juan Rodríguez10%
João Silva8%
Moudjatovic8%
Ivan Cavaleiro8%
Hugo Félix8%
Yefrei Rodriguez8%
Bernardo Fontes6%
Hélder Tavares5%
Arjen Van Der Heide0%
André Ceitil0%
Moudja Sie Ouattara0%
Xabi Huarte0%
Yarlen0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Makan Aïko11%
Rony Lopes6%
Pedro Henryque6%
Cicero6%
Emmanuel Maviram5%
Brayan Medina4%
Joe Hodge4%
Hugo Félix4%
Tiago Manso4%
Jordan Siebatcheu0%
Ivan Cavaleiro0%
Benjamin Mbunga-Kimpioka0%
Arjen Van Der Heide0%
João Afonso0%
Bebeto0%
Rodrigo Conceição0%
André Ceitil0%
Hélder Tavares0%
Christian Marques0%
Sphephelo Sithole0%
João Silva0%
Moudja Sie Ouattara0%
Rémy Vita0%
Xabi Huarte0%
Bernardo Fontes0%
Yefrei Rodriguez0%
Juan Rodríguez0%
Afonso Rodrigues0%
Miro0%
Yarlen0%
Moudjatovic0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Pedro Henryque30%
Rony Lopes25%
Ivan Cavaleiro15%
Jordan Siebatcheu14%
Hugo Félix8%
Yefrei Rodriguez8%
Makan Aïko6%
Juan Rodríguez3%
Benjamin Mbunga-Kimpioka0%
Arjen Van Der Heide0%
João Afonso0%
Bebeto0%
Rodrigo Conceição0%
Cicero0%
André Ceitil0%
Hélder Tavares0%
Tiago Manso0%
Christian Marques0%
Sphephelo Sithole0%
João Silva0%
Moudja Sie Ouattara0%
Rémy Vita0%
Xabi Huarte0%
Joe Hodge0%
Emmanuel Maviram0%
Brayan Medina0%
Bernardo Fontes0%
Afonso Rodrigues0%
Miro0%
Yarlen0%
Moudjatovic0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
Portugal: Segunda Liga 2022/23 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Portugal: Segunda Liga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Moreirense
Farense
Estrela
Academico Viseu
FC Porto B
Mafra
Feirense
Torreense
Oliveirense
Leixoes
Penafiel
Nacional
Benfica B
Belenenses
Trofense
SC Covilha
Vilaverdense