Volna’s recent run of three straight defeats has left the home side looking to regain confidence, while Dinamo Minsk II arrive on a two-game winning streak after a 3-2 victory over Smorgon. The model favours a home win, assigning Volna a 47% chance, a draw 25% and an away win 28%. The expected total of 3.2 goals points to a high-scoring encounter, with the most likely total of three goals carrying a 22% probability. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, which the model estimates at 11.1%. Volna’s home form shows an average of 2.5 goals scored and 1.0 conceded against similar opposition, whereas Dinamo Minsk II’s away numbers are 1.92 scored and 1.25 conceded. The model’s selection of Over 1.5 goals comes with an 84.4% probability.
Results analysis
The pre-match favourite, Volna, fell short of expectations as the game finished 1-1, a draw that surprised the model’s 47-percent confidence in a home win. Volna’s recent form, marked by three consecutive defeats, had hinted at a struggle, while Dinamo Minsk II, riding a two-game winning streak, kept the pressure on. The model’s single other selection, Over 1.5 goals, proved correct with an 84.4-percent probability, as the match saw two goals. The final score of 1-1 matched the model’s most likely total of three goals, but the outcome was a draw rather than the predicted home victory.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Volna win✗ Miss
47.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✓ Hit
24.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Dinamo Minsk II win✗ Miss
28.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Volna
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.8
Avg scored
2.3
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.17
1.37
2.62
1.00
1.64
1.79
vs Stronger (5)
1.80
1.40
1.50
1.00
2.00
1.67
vs Similar (22)
2.09
1.41
2.50
1.00
1.60
1.90
vs Weaker (3)
3.33
1.00
4.50
1.00
1.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
23% (-3pp vs league)
This opponent (Dinamo Minsk II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Dinamo Minsk II
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.67
1.13
1.59
1.06
1.77
1.23
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
0.00
0.50
0.00
-
-
vs Similar (25)
1.84
1.32
1.77
1.38
1.92
1.25
vs Weaker (3)
1.00
0.33
1.50
0.00
0.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
40% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Volna) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.2 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
84.4%
Under 1.5
15.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
62.8%
Under 2.5
37.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
40.6%
Under 3.5
59.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
64.3%
No
35.7%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1 ✓
11.1%
2-1
9.3%
1-2
7.0%
2-0
6.7%
2-2
6.5%
1-0
6.2%
3-1
5.7%
0-0
4.9%
Volna goals ↓
Dinamo Minsk II goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
4.9%
4.5%
3.8%
1.8%
0.6%
1
6.2%
11%
7.0%
3.3%
1.1%
2
6.7%
9.3%
6.5%
3.0%
1.0%
3
4.1%
5.7%
4.0%
1.8%
0.6%
4
1.9%
2.6%
1.8%
0.9%
0.3%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Volna goals (down), columns = Dinamo Minsk II goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Baranovichi
2.18
FC Dnepr Mogilev
1.97
Lokomotiv Gomel
1.88
Belshina
1.85
Lida
1.74
Bumprom
1.74
Niva
1.62
BATE II
1.56
Minsk II
1.50
Ostrovets FC
1.50
Volna
1.41
ABFF U19
1.24
Dinamo Minsk II
1.18
Uni Minsk
1.06
Gomel II
0.82
Orsha
0.74
Osipovichy
0.64
Slonim
0.61
Volna is 0.24 points better than Dinamo Minsk II in terms of average points per game (1.41 vs 1.18).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Baranovichi
2.21
Lida
2.18
BATE II
2.06
Niva
2.00
Volna
1.91
Belshina
1.88
FC Dnepr Mogilev
1.74
Ostrovets FC
1.65
Lokomotiv Gomel
1.65
Bumprom
1.65
Uni Minsk
1.59
Minsk II
1.44
ABFF U19
1.29
Orsha
1.24
Osipovichy
1.18
Gomel II
1.00
Dinamo Minsk II
1.00
Slonim
0.91
Volna is 0.91 goals better than Dinamo Minsk II in terms of goals scored per game (1.91 vs 1.00).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Baranovichi
0.85
Lokomotiv Gomel
1.00
Bumprom
1.06
FC Dnepr Mogilev
1.09
Dinamo Minsk II
1.18
Belshina
1.18
Lida
1.29
Minsk II
1.38
Ostrovets FC
1.41
ABFF U19
1.44
BATE II
1.53
Volna
1.62
Niva
1.65
Uni Minsk
2.12
Slonim
2.33
Osipovichy
2.33
Gomel II
2.44
Orsha
2.74
Volna is 0.44 goals worse than Dinamo Minsk II in terms of goals conceded per game (1.62 vs 1.18).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Volna
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.93
0.73
1.12
0.50
0.71
1.00
vs Stronger (5)
0.60
0.80
1.00
0.50
0.33
1.00
vs Similar (22)
0.95
0.73
1.08
0.42
0.80
1.10
vs Weaker (3)
1.33
0.67
1.50
1.00
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
53% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Dinamo Minsk II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Dinamo Minsk II
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
0.33
1.00
0.35
1.00
0.31
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
-
-
vs Similar (25)
1.12
0.40
1.15
0.46
1.08
0.33
vs Weaker (3)
0.67
0.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
67% (+41pp vs league)
This opponent (Volna) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Volna over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Volna over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Volna over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dinamo Minsk II over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dinamo Minsk II over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dinamo Minsk II over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Volna
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.23
0.63
1.50
0.50
0.93
0.79
vs Stronger (5)
1.20
0.60
0.50
0.50
1.67
0.67
vs Similar (22)
1.14
0.68
1.42
0.58
0.80
0.80
vs Weaker (3)
2.00
0.33
3.00
0.00
0.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
47% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Dinamo Minsk II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Dinamo Minsk II
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.80
0.59
0.71
0.77
0.92
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
0.00
0.50
0.00
-
-
vs Similar (25)
0.72
0.92
0.62
0.92
0.83
0.92
vs Weaker (3)
0.33
0.33
0.50
0.00
0.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
53% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Volna) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Volna over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Volna over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Volna over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dinamo Minsk II over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dinamo Minsk II over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dinamo Minsk II over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
84.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FDM (25)
€3m
BAR (21)
€2m
UM (29)
€2m
BEL (16)
€2m
NIV (21)
€2m
BUM (20)
€2m
DMI (27)
€1m
VOL (18)
€1m
OF (22)
€1m
MI (23)
€1m
LID (18)
€1m
SLO (20)
€1m
BI (20)
€1m
ORS (19)
€1m
OSI (20)
€1m
GI (17)
€1m
Volna and Dinamo Minsk II have a similar squad value (both €1m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FDM (9)
€1m
BAR (8)
€1m
BEL (6)
€1m
NIV (5)
€1m
UM (8)
€1m
BUM (7)
€1m
VOL (6)
€0m
ORS (5)
€0m
MI (6)
€0m
OF (6)
€0m
OSI (6)
€0m
SLO (6)
€0m
BI (4)
€0m
GI (2)
€0m
LID (2)
€0m
DMI (2)
€0m
Volna and Dinamo Minsk II have a similar attack value (both €0m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FDM (6)
€1m
DMI (11)
€1m
LID (7)
€1m
NIV (7)
€1m
UM (8)
€0m
BAR (4)
€0m
BI (7)
€0m
VOL (6)
€0m
MI (9)
€0m
OF (7)
€0m
ORS (9)
€0m
GI (8)
€0m
SLO (6)
€0m
BEL (2)
€0m
OSI (7)
€0m
BUM (4)
€0m
Volna and Dinamo Minsk II have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FDM (10)
€1m
BAR (9)
€1m
BEL (8)
€1m
UM (13)
€1m
DMI (14)
€1m
BUM (9)
€1m
OF (9)
€1m
NIV (9)
€1m
VOL (6)
€0m
LID (9)
€0m
SLO (8)
€0m
BI (9)
€0m
MI (8)
€0m
OSI (7)
€0m
ORS (5)
€0m
GI (7)
€0m
Volna and Dinamo Minsk II have a similar defence value (both €0m).
Belarus: 1. Division 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Belarus: 1. Division stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Baranovichi
FC Dnepr Mogilev
Lokomotiv Gomel
Belshina
Lida
Bumprom
Niva
BATE II
Ostrovets FC
Minsk II
ABFF U19
Uni Minsk
Gomel II
Orsha
Osipovichy
Slonim