Volna’s recent run of three straight defeats has left the home side struggling to keep the ball, while Lida, riding a two-game winning streak, has been firing on all cylinders away from home. The model favours an Lida victory, with a 42% chance of winning, 35% for Volna, and 24% for a draw. The expected total of 3.5 goals points to a high-scoring affair, and the single most likely scoreline is 1-1, with a 10% probability. Volna averages 1.33 goals scored and 2.11 conceded against similar opposition, whereas Lida averages 1.91 goals scored and 1.64 conceded on the road. The model’s selections include Under 7.5 (97.2%), Under 6.5 (93.2%), Home under 3.5 goals (91.0%), Away under 3.5 goals (88.3%), Over 1.5 (87.6%), Under 5.5 (85.4%), Away over 0.5 goals (84.3%), and Away +2 handicap (82.3%). These picks reflect a match where Lida’s attacking edge and defensive solidity should outweigh Volna’s struggles.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Volna win
34.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
23.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Lida win
41.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Volna
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
4.0
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
2.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.90
1.77
1.93
1.71
1.88
1.81
vs Stronger (1)
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
-
-
vs Similar (20)
1.50
2.00
1.33
2.11
1.64
1.91
vs Weaker (9)
2.89
1.33
3.50
1.00
2.40
1.60
Clean sheet %
13% (-13pp vs league)
This opponent (Lida) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Lida
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.7
Avg scored
2.3
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.30
1.33
2.60
1.13
2.00
1.53
vs Stronger (2)
1.00
1.00
-
-
1.00
1.00
vs Similar (22)
2.32
1.36
2.73
1.09
1.91
1.64
vs Weaker (6)
2.67
1.33
2.25
1.25
3.50
1.50
Clean sheet %
23% (-3pp vs league)
This opponent (Volna) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (21%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
87.6%
Under 1.5
12.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
68.4%
Under 2.5
31.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
47.0%
Under 3.5
53.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
69.5%
No
30.5%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
10.0%
1-2
8.4%
2-1
7.6%
2-2
7.1%
1-3
5.2%
0-2
5.0%
0-1
4.5%
2-3
4.4%
Volna goals ↓
Lida goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
3.8%
4.5%
5.0%
3.1%
1.4%
1
4.0%
10%
8.4%
5.2%
2.4%
2
4.1%
7.6%
7.1%
4.4%
2.0%
3
2.3%
4.3%
4.0%
2.4%
1.1%
4
1.0%
1.8%
1.7%
1.0%
0.5%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Volna goals (down), columns = Lida goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Molodechno-DYuSSh 4
2.71
Niva
2.57
Lida
2.14
Minsk II
1.86
Osipovichy
1.86
Ostrovets FC
1.71
Bumprom
1.38
Smorgon
1.29
FC Slutsk
1.29
Uni Minsk
1.29
Slonim
1.29
Orsha
1.25
FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk
1.00
BATE II
1.00
Volna
1.00
Dinamo Minsk II
0.88
Shakhter Soligorsk
0.88
Gomel II
0.62
Volna is 1.14 points worse than Lida in terms of average points per game (1.00 vs 2.14).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Niva
3.14
Molodechno-DYuSSh 4
2.43
Lida
2.14
Volna
1.75
Minsk II
1.71
Slonim
1.71
Shakhter Soligorsk
1.62
FC Slutsk
1.57
BATE II
1.57
Bumprom
1.50
Dinamo Minsk II
1.38
Ostrovets FC
1.29
Orsha
1.25
Smorgon
1.14
Uni Minsk
1.14
Osipovichy
1.14
Gomel II
1.00
FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk
0.86
Volna is 0.39 goals worse than Lida in terms of goals scored per game (1.75 vs 2.14).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Molodechno-DYuSSh 4
0.43
Uni Minsk
0.57
Minsk II
1.00
FC Slutsk
1.00
Niva
1.14
Smorgon
1.29
FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk
1.43
Ostrovets FC
1.43
Osipovichy
1.43
Slonim
1.57
Bumprom
1.62
Lida
1.71
Orsha
1.88
Dinamo Minsk II
1.88
BATE II
2.00
Volna
2.25
Gomel II
2.38
Shakhter Soligorsk
2.75
Volna is 0.54 goals worse than Lida in terms of goals conceded per game (2.25 vs 1.71).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Volna or Draw
58.4%
Avg Implied -
35%
24%
42%
covers Volna + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Volna or Lida
76.1%
Avg Implied -
35%
24%
42%
covers Volna + Lida
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Lida
65.5%
Avg Implied -
35%
24%
42%
covers Draw + Lida
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Volna over/under 0.5
Over
81.3%
Under
18.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Volna over/under 1.5
Over
50.0%
Under
50.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Volna over/under 2.5
Over
23.7%
Under
76.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Volna over/under 3.5
Over
9.0%
Under
91.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lida over/under 0.5
Over
84.3%
Under
15.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lida over/under 1.5
Over
55.2%
Under
44.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lida over/under 2.5
Over
28.3%
Under
71.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lida over/under 3.5
Over
11.7%
Under
88.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Volna, so a minus line means Volna give that many goals of a start and Lida receive them. At -1, Volna must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Volna win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Volna)
Volna -2
7.2%
Draw -2
10.5%
Lida +2
82.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Volna)
Volna -1
17.7%
Draw -1
16.8%
Lida +1
65.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Volna)
Volna +1
58.4%
Draw +1
18.6%
Lida -1
22.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Volna)
Volna +2
77.1%
Draw +2
12.7%
Lida -2
10.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Volna
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
0.80
1.00
0.86
1.00
0.75
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
-
-
vs Similar (20)
0.75
0.85
0.67
0.89
0.82
0.82
vs Weaker (9)
1.67
0.67
2.00
0.75
1.40
0.60
Clean sheet %
37% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Lida) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Lida
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.03
0.53
1.27
0.53
0.80
0.53
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
0.50
-
-
0.50
0.50
vs Similar (22)
1.09
0.50
1.45
0.55
0.73
0.45
vs Weaker (6)
1.00
0.67
0.75
0.50
1.50
1.00
Clean sheet %
53% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Volna) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Volna over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Volna over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Volna over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lida over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lida over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lida over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Volna
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
0.97
0.93
0.86
0.88
1.06
vs Stronger (1)
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
-
-
vs Similar (20)
0.75
1.15
0.67
1.22
0.82
1.09
vs Weaker (9)
1.22
0.67
1.50
0.25
1.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
33% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (Lida) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Lida
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.27
0.80
1.33
0.60
1.20
1.00
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
0.50
-
-
0.50
0.50
vs Similar (22)
1.23
0.86
1.27
0.55
1.18
1.18
vs Weaker (6)
1.67
0.67
1.50
0.75
2.00
0.50
Clean sheet %
40% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Volna) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Volna over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Volna over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Volna over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lida over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lida over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lida over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
97.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
93.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
91.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
88.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
87.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
85.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
84.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
82.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
81.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
77.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
76.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
76.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
72.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
71.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
UM (29)
€2m
FS (22)
€2m
NIV (21)
€2m
SMO (25)
€2m
BUM (20)
€2m
DMI (27)
€1m
M4 (22)
€1m
VOL (18)
€1m
OF (22)
€1m
MI (23)
€1m
LID (18)
€1m
SLO (20)
€1m
BI (20)
€1m
ORS (19)
€1m
OSI (20)
€1m
GI (17)
€1m
Volna and Lida have a similar squad value (both €1m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
NIV (5)
€1m
FS (6)
€1m
UM (8)
€1m
BUM (7)
€1m
SMO (9)
€0m
VOL (6)
€0m
ORS (5)
€0m
M4 (6)
€0m
MI (6)
€0m
OF (6)
€0m
OSI (6)
€0m
SLO (6)
€0m
BI (4)
€0m
GI (2)
€0m
LID (2)
€0m
DMI (2)
€0m
Volna and Lida have a similar attack value (both €0m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DMI (11)
€1m
LID (7)
€1m
NIV (7)
€1m
FS (8)
€1m
UM (8)
€0m
M4 (7)
€0m
BI (7)
€0m
VOL (6)
€0m
MI (9)
€0m
OF (7)
€0m
SMO (7)
€0m
ORS (9)
€0m
GI (8)
€0m
SLO (6)
€0m
OSI (7)
€0m
BUM (4)
€0m
Volna and Lida have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
UM (13)
€1m
DMI (14)
€1m
SMO (9)
€1m
BUM (9)
€1m
FS (8)
€1m
OF (9)
€1m
NIV (9)
€1m
M4 (9)
€1m
VOL (6)
€0m
LID (9)
€0m
SLO (8)
€0m
BI (9)
€0m
MI (8)
€0m
OSI (7)
€0m
ORS (5)
€0m
GI (7)
€0m
Volna and Lida have a similar defence value (both €0m).
Belarus: 1. Division 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Belarus: 1. Division stats & trends →