Volna and Uni Minsk are set to clash in the Belarus 1. Division on August 10. The recent form of these teams suggests a closely contested match, with Volna coming off a draw against Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 and Uni Minsk having won their previous game against Smorgon. However, the attacking and defensive numbers paint a different picture, as Volna averages 2.83 goals scored and 1.33 conceded at home, while Uni Minsk averages 1.38 goals scored and 2.38 conceded away against stronger opponents.
The model predicts a home win for Volna, with a 48% probability, while the away win and draw probabilities stand at 30% and 22% respectively. The expected total goals are 3.8, suggesting a high-scoring match. The most likely score is 1-1, with a probability of 8.9%. Volna's home form and Uni Minsk's away form against stronger opponents are key factors in this match, with Volna averaging 2.83 goals scored and Uni Minsk averaging 1.38 goals scored.
The model's selections include Over 1.5, Over 2.5, and BTTS Yes, with probabilities of 89.8%, 72.6%, and 71.9% respectively. The home win percentage is 48%, the draw percentage is 22%, and the away win percentage is 30%.
Results analysis
In a stunning upset, Volna were held to a 0-0 draw at home against Uni Minsk, extending their winless run to four matches. The winless streak is a stark contrast to their recent form, where they had been coming off a draw. The pre-match favourite, a home win, did not come through, as the model's selection was incorrect. The model had predicted a home win with a 48% probability. The model's selection, a home win, was wrong. The suggested picks all missed, including Over 1.5 with a 89.8% probability, Over 2.5 with a 72.6% probability, and BTTS Yes with a 71.9% probability.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Volna win✗ Miss
47.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✓ Hit
22.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Uni Minsk win✗ Miss
29.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Volna
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
4.3
Avg scored
2.3
Avg conceded
2.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.00
1.70
1.87
2.07
2.13
1.33
vs Stronger (1)
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
-
-
vs Similar (20)
1.55
2.05
1.30
2.60
1.80
1.50
vs Weaker (9)
3.11
1.00
3.50
1.00
2.80
1.00
Clean sheet %
13% (-13pp vs league)
This opponent (Uni Minsk) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Uni Minsk
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
4.4
Avg scored
1.8
Avg conceded
2.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.67
2.03
1.88
2.06
1.43
2.00
vs Stronger (6)
1.00
2.00
1.50
2.00
0.75
2.00
vs Similar (19)
1.63
2.11
1.73
1.91
1.50
2.38
vs Weaker (5)
2.60
1.80
2.67
2.67
2.50
0.50
Clean sheet %
20% (-6pp vs league)
This opponent (Volna) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.8 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (21%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
89.8%
Under 1.5
10.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
72.6%
Under 2.5
27.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
52.0%
Under 3.5
48.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
71.9%
No
28.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
8.9%
2-1
8.5%
2-2
7.1%
1-2
6.7%
3-1
6.0%
2-0
5.2%
3-2
5.0%
1-0
4.1%
Volna goals ↓
Uni Minsk goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
3.1%
3.0%
3.2%
1.7%
0.7%
1
4.1%
8.9%
6.7%
3.7%
1.5%
2
5.2%
8.5%
7.1%
3.9%
1.6%
3
3.6%
6.0%
5.0%
2.7%
1.1%
4
1.9%
3.2%
2.6%
1.4%
0.6%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Volna goals (down), columns = Uni Minsk goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Molodechno-DYuSSh 4
2.71
Niva
2.57
Lida
2.14
Minsk II
1.86
Osipovichy
1.86
Ostrovets FC
1.71
Bumprom
1.38
Smorgon
1.29
FC Slutsk
1.29
Uni Minsk
1.29
Slonim
1.29
Orsha
1.25
FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk
1.00
BATE II
1.00
Volna
1.00
Dinamo Minsk II
0.88
Shakhter Soligorsk
0.88
Gomel II
0.62
Volna is 0.29 points worse than Uni Minsk in terms of average points per game (1.00 vs 1.29).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Niva
3.14
Molodechno-DYuSSh 4
2.43
Lida
2.14
Volna
1.75
Minsk II
1.71
Slonim
1.71
Shakhter Soligorsk
1.62
FC Slutsk
1.57
BATE II
1.57
Bumprom
1.50
Dinamo Minsk II
1.38
Ostrovets FC
1.29
Orsha
1.25
Smorgon
1.14
Uni Minsk
1.14
Osipovichy
1.14
Gomel II
1.00
FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk
0.86
Volna is 0.61 goals better than Uni Minsk in terms of goals scored per game (1.75 vs 1.14).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Molodechno-DYuSSh 4
0.43
Uni Minsk
0.57
Minsk II
1.00
FC Slutsk
1.00
Niva
1.14
Smorgon
1.29
FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk
1.43
Ostrovets FC
1.43
Osipovichy
1.43
Slonim
1.57
Bumprom
1.62
Lida
1.71
Orsha
1.88
Dinamo Minsk II
1.88
BATE II
2.00
Volna
2.25
Gomel II
2.38
Shakhter Soligorsk
2.75
Volna is 1.68 goals worse than Uni Minsk in terms of goals conceded per game (2.25 vs 0.57).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Volna
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
0.73
0.93
0.87
1.07
0.60
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
-
-
vs Similar (20)
0.65
0.85
0.60
0.90
0.70
0.80
vs Weaker (9)
1.89
0.44
2.00
0.75
1.80
0.20
Clean sheet %
37% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Uni Minsk) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Uni Minsk
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.77
1.12
0.62
0.21
0.93
vs Stronger (6)
0.50
0.83
1.00
0.50
0.25
1.00
vs Similar (19)
0.63
0.74
0.91
0.55
0.25
1.00
vs Weaker (5)
1.20
0.80
2.00
1.00
0.00
0.50
Clean sheet %
50% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Volna) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Volna over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Volna over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Volna over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Uni Minsk over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Uni Minsk over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Uni Minsk over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Volna
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
0.97
0.93
1.20
1.07
0.73
vs Stronger (1)
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
-
-
vs Similar (20)
0.90
1.20
0.70
1.70
1.10
0.70
vs Weaker (9)
1.22
0.56
1.50
0.25
1.00
0.80
Clean sheet %
37% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Uni Minsk) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Uni Minsk
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
1.27
0.75
1.44
1.21
1.07
vs Stronger (6)
0.50
1.17
0.50
1.50
0.50
1.00
vs Similar (19)
1.00
1.37
0.82
1.36
1.25
1.38
vs Weaker (5)
1.40
1.00
0.67
1.67
2.50
0.00
Clean sheet %
33% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (Volna) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Volna over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Volna over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Volna over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Uni Minsk over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Uni Minsk over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Uni Minsk over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
89.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 2.5
72.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
BTTS Yes
71.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
UM (29)
€2m
FS (22)
€2m
NIV (21)
€2m
SMO (25)
€2m
BUM (20)
€2m
DMI (27)
€1m
M4 (22)
€1m
VOL (18)
€1m
OF (22)
€1m
MI (23)
€1m
LID (18)
€1m
SLO (20)
€1m
BI (20)
€1m
ORS (19)
€1m
OSI (20)
€1m
GI (17)
€1m
Volna and Uni Minsk have a similar squad value (both €1m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
NIV (5)
€1m
FS (6)
€1m
UM (8)
€1m
BUM (7)
€1m
SMO (9)
€0m
VOL (6)
€0m
ORS (5)
€0m
M4 (6)
€0m
MI (6)
€0m
OF (6)
€0m
OSI (6)
€0m
SLO (6)
€0m
BI (4)
€0m
GI (2)
€0m
LID (2)
€0m
DMI (2)
€0m
Volna and Uni Minsk have a similar attack value (both €0m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DMI (11)
€1m
LID (7)
€1m
NIV (7)
€1m
FS (8)
€1m
UM (8)
€0m
M4 (7)
€0m
BI (7)
€0m
VOL (6)
€0m
MI (9)
€0m
OF (7)
€0m
SMO (7)
€0m
ORS (9)
€0m
GI (8)
€0m
SLO (6)
€0m
OSI (7)
€0m
BUM (4)
€0m
Volna and Uni Minsk have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
UM (13)
€1m
DMI (14)
€1m
SMO (9)
€1m
BUM (9)
€1m
FS (8)
€1m
OF (9)
€1m
NIV (9)
€1m
M4 (9)
€1m
VOL (6)
€0m
LID (9)
€0m
SLO (8)
€0m
BI (9)
€0m
MI (8)
€0m
OSI (7)
€0m
ORS (5)
€0m
GI (7)
€0m
Volna and Uni Minsk have a similar defence value (both €0m).
Belarus: 1. Division 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Belarus: 1. Division stats & trends →