This Eerste Divisie match between VVV Venlo and De Graafschap is shaping up to be an exciting encounter, with both teams averaging a respectable number of goals scored and conceded at home and away. VVV Venlo's recent win over NAC Breda, coming off a win, suggests they're in good form, but De Graafschap's consistent performance away from home, having drawn with Helmond Sport, indicates they're a force to be reckoned with.
According to the model, the most likely match result is an away win for De Graafschap, with a 44% probability. The model predicts an expected total of 3.3 goals, with the most likely scoreline being 1-1, occurring with a 10.9% probability. VVV Venlo averages 1.6 goals scored and 1.2 conceded at home, while De Graafschap averages 1.5 goals scored and 1.5 conceded away from home, suggesting a closely contested match. The model's selection is Over 1.5, with an 85.3% probability. The probabilities for the match result are: 32% for VVV Venlo, 25% for a draw, and 44% for De Graafschap.
Results analysis
The pre-match favourite, De Graafschap, was expected to win with a 44 % chance, but VVV Venlo snatched a 2-1 victory, extending their two-game winning run. The model’s call was wrong. The final score of 2-1 confirmed the home win. The model’s selections all hit: Home under 2.5 HT goals at 98.1 %, Under 7.5 at 98.0 %, Away under 2.5 HT goals at 97.1 %, Under 6.5 at 94.8 %, Home under 2.5 2H goals at 94.7 %, Away under 2.5 2H goals at 93.8 %, Home under 3.5 goals at 93.2 %, and Away under 3.5 goals at 89.2 %. The match finished with 3 goals, close to the most likely total of 3. The upset highlights the volatility of the Eerste Divisie.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
VVV Venlo win✓ Hit
31.8%
Avg Implied 33.1% · @ 2.80
Edge
-1.4%
Best 5 market prices
Unibet
3.00
10Bet
3.00
Dafabet
2.85
Pinnacle
2.83
1xBet
2.79
Draw✗ Miss
24.7%
Avg Implied 24.6% · @ 3.76
Edge
+0.1%
Best 5 market prices
Betfair
4.00
Pinnacle
3.92
10Bet
3.90
Dafabet
3.90
Betano
3.90
De Graafschap win✗ Miss
43.5%
Avg Implied 42.2% · @ 2.19
Edge
+1.3%
Best 5 market prices
Dafabet
2.27
Pinnacle
2.26
Superbet
2.25
Bet365
2.25
1xBet
2.22
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
VVV Venlo
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.3
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
1.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.23
1.60
1.27
1.87
1.20
1.33
vs Stronger (6)
0.50
1.83
0.33
3.00
0.67
0.67
vs Similar (24)
1.42
1.54
1.50
1.58
1.33
1.50
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
20% (-3pp vs league)
This opponent (De Graafschap) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
De Graafschap
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.9
Avg scored
2.1
Avg conceded
1.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.03
1.67
2.21
1.71
1.88
1.62
vs Stronger (1)
2.00
1.00
-
-
2.00
1.00
vs Similar (29)
2.03
1.69
2.21
1.71
1.87
1.67
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
20% (-3pp vs league)
This opponent (VVV Venlo) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
85.3%
@ 1.10+0.5%
Under 1.5
14.7%
@ 6.12-0.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
1.14
Unibet
1.12
Betano
1.12
Pinnacle
1.11
888Sport
1.11
Under
Bet365
7.00
BetVictor
7.00
Pinnacle
6.69
888Sport
6.50
Betfair
6.50
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
64.3%
@ 1.37-3.3%
Under 2.5
35.7%
@ 2.87+3.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
1.44
10Bet
1.44
Betano
1.39
Superbet
1.38
Pinnacle
1.38
Under
Bet365
3.10
Betfair
3.10
Pinnacle
3.01
BetVictor
3.00
888Sport
2.88
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
42.3%
@ 1.95-5.7%
Under 3.5
57.7%
@ 1.80+5.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
2.10
Unibet
2.08
SBO
2.04
Pinnacle
1.96
Betano
1.95
Under
Pinnacle
1.88
Betfair
1.87
1xBet
1.83
Marathonbet
1.83
Bet365
1.83
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
66.1%
@ 1.36-2.1%
No
33.9%
@ 2.90+2.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Bet365
1.40
10Bet
1.38
Unibet
1.38
Betfair
1.36
Betano
1.36
No
Betfair
3.10
BetVictor
3.10
1xBet
3.02
Marathonbet
2.96
Superbet
2.90
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
10.9%@ 7.98+5.2%
1-2
8.9%@ 8.77+3.8%
2-1 ✓
7.5%@ 10.10+3.0%
2-2
6.8%@ 9.84+2.2%
0-2
5.9%@ 13.87+2.6%
0-1
5.5%@ 12.78+2.0%
1-3
5.3%@ 13.25+1.9%
0-0
4.6%@ 18.61+2.2%
VVV Venlo goals ↓
De Graafschap goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
4.6%
5.5%
5.9%
3.5%
1.6%
1
4.5%
11%
8.9%
5.3%
2.4%
2
4.2%
7.5%
6.8%
4.0%
1.8%
3
2.1%
3.8%
3.4%
2.0%
0.9%
4
0.8%
1.4%
1.3%
0.8%
0.3%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = VVV Venlo goals (down), columns = De Graafschap goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
De Graafschap
1.60
Almere City FC
1.55
Heracles
1.53
NAC Breda
1.50
FC Volendam
1.50
Jong PSV U21
1.47
Vitesse
1.47
Waalwijk
1.45
Roda
1.43
Den Bosch
1.27
Dordrecht
1.24
FC Eindhoven
1.24
Jong Utrecht
1.21
Emmen
1.18
VVV Venlo
1.18
FC OSS
1.16
Jong AZ
1.05
Helmond Sport
1.03
MVV
1.00
Jong Ajax
0.92
VVV Venlo is 0.42 points worse than De Graafschap in terms of average points per game (1.18 vs 1.60).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Almere City FC
2.02
De Graafschap
1.93
Waalwijk
1.76
Heracles
1.74
Jong PSV U21
1.74
NAC Breda
1.71
Vitesse
1.68
Den Bosch
1.68
Jong AZ
1.61
Emmen
1.53
Jong Utrecht
1.53
Roda
1.52
FC Volendam
1.50
FC OSS
1.42
FC Eindhoven
1.34
VVV Venlo
1.32
Jong Ajax
1.32
Dordrecht
1.26
Helmond Sport
1.11
MVV
1.08
VVV Venlo is 0.61 goals worse than De Graafschap in terms of goals scored per game (1.32 vs 1.93).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Roda
1.40
Heracles
1.44
Vitesse
1.45
NAC Breda
1.47
Dordrecht
1.47
FC Volendam
1.50
Waalwijk
1.50
VVV Venlo
1.53
De Graafschap
1.57
Almere City FC
1.61
Jong Utrecht
1.63
Helmond Sport
1.63
Jong PSV U21
1.68
FC OSS
1.68
FC Eindhoven
1.82
Den Bosch
1.88
Emmen
1.89
MVV
1.92
Jong Ajax
1.92
Jong AZ
2.00
VVV Venlo is 0.05 goals better than De Graafschap in terms of goals conceded per game (1.53 vs 1.57).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
De Graafschap
56%
Jong AZ
54%
Roda
52%
Emmen
52%
Jong PSV U21
52%
Jong Ajax
52%
Waalwijk
50%
VVV Venlo
49%
Helmond Sport
49%
Dordrecht
48%
Almere City FC
48%
Jong Utrecht
48%
Den Bosch
47%
Vitesse
46%
FC Eindhoven
44%
MVV
44%
FC OSS
43%
VVV Venlo is 6.9 percentage points worse than De Graafschap in terms of average possession (49% vs 56%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
VVV Venlo
For 4.9 · Against 6.1 · Total 11.0
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.6 · Against 1.8 · Total 3.4
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.8 · Against 11.2 · Total 22.0
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
De Graafschap
For 5.2 · Against 5.2 · Total 10.4
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.4 · Against 2.1 · Total 3.5
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.3 · Against 10.7 · Total 23.0
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
VVV Venlo
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
11.2
10.6
11.7
3.4
3.2
3.6
23.7
22.0
25.4
vs Stronger (8)
9.8
10.2
9.0
2.6
2.0
3.7
23.2
20.0
28.7
vs Similar (42)
11.4
10.7
12.1
3.5
3.5
3.5
23.8
22.6
24.9
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
70%
64%
76%
40%
36%
44%
58%
48%
68%
% under line
30%
36%
24%
60%
64%
56%
42%
52%
32%
This opponent (De Graafschap) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
De Graafschap
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
11.9
11.6
12.2
3.0
2.9
3.0
22.8
22.3
23.1
vs Stronger (2)
13.5
12.0
15.0
1.0
1.0
1.0
20.0
20.0
20.0
vs Similar (48)
11.8
11.5
12.0
3.0
3.0
3.1
22.9
22.5
23.2
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
75%
65%
84%
38%
33%
42%
58%
57%
60%
% under line
25%
35%
16%
62%
67%
58%
42%
43%
40%
This opponent (VVV Venlo) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Den Bosch
12.1
FC OSS
11.9
De Graafschap
11.7
Dordrecht
11.6
VVV Venlo
11.2
Almere City FC
11.0
Jong PSV U21
10.7
Heracles
10.7
Helmond Sport
10.6
Jong AZ
10.5
Jong Ajax
10.5
FC Volendam
10.4
FC Eindhoven
10.4
Emmen
10.3
MVV
10.3
Waalwijk
10.0
Roda
10.0
NAC Breda
9.8
Vitesse
9.7
Jong Utrecht
9.6
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Vitesse
4.5
Dordrecht
4.3
FC OSS
4.2
Jong Ajax
3.9
NAC Breda
3.9
Emmen
3.8
Den Bosch
3.7
Heracles
3.5
VVV Venlo
3.5
FC Volendam
3.4
Jong AZ
3.4
Helmond Sport
3.3
Roda
3.3
Waalwijk
3.3
MVV
3.2
Jong PSV U21
3.2
De Graafschap
3.2
FC Eindhoven
3.1
Jong Utrecht
3.0
Almere City FC
3.0
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
FC OSS
29.2
Vitesse
26.9
Emmen
25.9
Dordrecht
25.8
Jong Utrecht
25.7
Helmond Sport
25.6
Jong Ajax
25.1
Roda
24.8
Heracles
24.3
Jong PSV U21
24.0
VVV Venlo
23.7
Jong AZ
23.6
Den Bosch
23.2
NAC Breda
23.2
MVV
22.7
FC Eindhoven
22.6
De Graafschap
22.6
Waalwijk
22.5
FC Volendam
22.3
Almere City FC
20.7
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
65.5%
@ 1.49+3.8%
Under 9.5
34.5%
@ 2.40-3.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.52
Superbet
1.51
Betano
1.50
Unibet
1.49
1xBet
1.47
Under
Betano
2.50
Pinnacle
2.41
Marathonbet
2.41
Unibet
2.38
Superbet
2.37
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
43.7%
Under 3.5
56.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
62.3%
Under 21.5
37.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
VVV Venlo or Draw✓ Hit
56.5%
Avg Implied 56.7% · @ 1.65
Edge
-0.3%
32%
25%
44%
covers VVV Venlo + Draw
Best 5 market prices
10Bet
1.70
Bet365
1.70
Betano
1.70
SBO
1.70
Betfair
1.67
VVV Venlo or De Graafschap✓ Hit
75.3%
Avg Implied 75.9% · @ 1.23
Edge
-0.6%
32%
25%
44%
covers VVV Venlo + De Graafschap
Best 5 market prices
888Sport
1.25
Betano
1.25
Bet365
1.25
William Hil
1.25
Unibet
1.25
Draw or De Graafschap✗ Miss
68.2%
Avg Implied 67.4% · @ 1.39
Edge
+0.9%
32%
25%
44%
covers Draw + De Graafschap
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.47
William Hil
1.40
888Sport
1.40
Betfair
1.40
BetVictor
1.40
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
VVV Venlo over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
78.0%
@ 1.18-0.5%
Under
22.0%
@ 4.32+0.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.21
10Bet
1.20
Bet365
1.20
Betano
1.19
Unibet
1.18
Under
BetVictor
4.75
1xBet
4.55
Betfair
4.50
888Sport
4.50
Superbet
4.45
VVV Venlo over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
44.8%
@ 1.90-4.2%
Under
55.2%
@ 1.82+4.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
2.02
Bet365
2.00
10Bet
2.00
Pinnacle
1.89
Betano
1.87
Under
Pinnacle
1.91
Betano
1.87
1xBet
1.87
Marathonbet
1.87
BetVictor
1.87
VVV Venlo over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
19.5%
@ 3.83-4.6%
Under
80.5%
@ 1.22+4.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
4.33
Unibet
4.20
10Bet
4.20
Pinnacle
3.80
Betfair
3.75
Under
Betano
1.26
Pinnacle
1.25
Marathonbet
1.24
1xBet
1.24
Superbet
1.24
VVV Venlo over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
6.8%
@ 8.70-4.0%
Under
93.2%
@ 1.05+4.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
11.00
1xBet
9.40
888Sport
8.50
Betfair
8.50
Superbet
7.70
Under
Betano
1.08
888Sport
1.06
Betfair
1.05
Superbet
1.05
Bet365
1.05
De Graafschap over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
83.4%
@ 1.12+0.6%
Under
16.6%
@ 5.41-0.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.14
888Sport
1.13
Betfair
1.13
10Bet
1.12
Bet365
1.12
Under
Bet365
6.00
BetVictor
5.50
Betfair
5.50
888Sport
5.50
1xBet
5.50
De Graafschap over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
53.6%
@ 1.66-2.5%
Under
46.4%
@ 2.12+2.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.68
Bet365
1.67
Superbet
1.67
Betano
1.67
10Bet
1.67
Under
Pinnacle
2.20
Betfair
2.20
Marathonbet
2.14
1xBet
2.14
Betano
2.12
De Graafschap over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
26.9%
@ 3.04-3.6%
Under
73.1%
@ 1.33+3.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
3.25
Unibet
3.10
Pinnacle
3.08
Superbet
3.05
Betfair
3.00
Under
Betano
1.36
Pinnacle
1.35
BetVictor
1.33
1xBet
1.33
Betfair
1.33
De Graafschap over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
10.8%
@ 6.15-4.4%
Under
89.2%
@ 1.10+4.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
7.00
888Sport
6.50
Superbet
6.30
Betfair
6.00
Betano
5.90
Under
Betano
1.11
1xBet
1.11
Bet365
1.10
Betfair
1.10
888Sport
1.10
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to VVV Venlo, so a minus line means VVV Venlo give that many goals of a start and De Graafschap receive them. At -1, VVV Venlo must win by two or more to land; a one-goal VVV Venlo win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (VVV Venlo)Actual: De Graafschap
VVV Venlo -2
5.9%
@ 10.57-2.7%
Draw -2
9.5%
@ 7.95-1.8%
De Graafschap +2
84.6%
@ 1.12+4.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
12.00
Betfair
12.00
Superbet
9.20
Marathonbet
9.10
Draw
Bet365
9.00
Betfair
8.00
Marathonbet
7.60
Superbet
7.20
Away
Superbet
1.15
Betfair
1.13
Marathonbet
1.11
Bet365
1.11
Handicap -1 (VVV Venlo)Actual: Draw
VVV Venlo -1
15.4%
@ 5.37-1.3%
Draw -1
16.4%
@ 4.96-1.7%
De Graafschap +1
68.2%
@ 1.37+3.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
6.00
Unibet
5.50
10Bet
5.50
Betfair
5.00
Marathonbet
4.85
Draw
Bet365
5.50
Betfair
5.00
Marathonbet
4.80
Unibet
4.75
10Bet
4.75
Away
Marathonbet
1.40
Betfair
1.40
10Bet
1.38
Bet365
1.36
Unibet
1.33
Handicap +1 (VVV Venlo)Actual: VVV Venlo
VVV Venlo +1
56.5%
@ 1.65+2.1%
Draw +1
19.6%
@ 4.23-1.6%
De Graafschap -1
24.0%
@ 3.65-0.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
10Bet
1.70
Bet365
1.67
Unibet
1.65
Superbet
1.62
Betfair
1.62
Draw
Bet365
4.50
Betfair
4.33
Superbet
4.30
Marathonbet
4.25
10Bet
4.00
Away
Bet365
3.75
Betfair
3.75
Superbet
3.75
Marathonbet
3.58
10Bet
3.55
Handicap +2 (VVV Venlo)Actual: VVV Venlo
VVV Venlo +2
76.0%
@ 1.23+3.5%
Draw +2
13.4%
@ 6.01-1.5%
De Graafschap -2
10.6%
@ 7.10-2.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.25
10Bet
1.25
Superbet
1.23
Unibet
1.23
Betfair
1.22
Draw
Betfair
6.50
Marathonbet
6.20
Superbet
6.00
Bet365
6.00
10Bet
5.75
Away
Betfair
8.00
Superbet
7.10
Bet365
7.00
10Bet
7.00
Unibet
6.75
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
VVV Venlo
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.37
0.60
0.47
0.60
0.27
0.60
vs Stronger (6)
0.17
0.67
0.00
1.00
0.33
0.33
vs Similar (24)
0.42
0.58
0.58
0.50
0.25
0.67
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
53% (+30pp vs league)
This opponent (De Graafschap) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
De Graafschap
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.93
0.53
0.86
0.50
1.00
0.56
vs Stronger (1)
1.00
1.00
-
-
1.00
1.00
vs Similar (29)
0.93
0.52
0.86
0.50
1.00
0.53
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (VVV Venlo) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
70.8%
@ 1.21-6.0%
Under 0.5
29.2%
@ 3.99+6.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.24
Bet365
1.22
10Bet
1.22
Superbet
1.21
1xBet
1.20
Under
Betfair
4.50
William Hil
4.20
BetVictor
4.10
Superbet
4.00
Bet365
4.00
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
35.5%
@ 2.02-10.7%
Under 1.5
64.5%
@ 1.73+10.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
2.10
SBO
2.09
10Bet
2.05
Betano
2.05
Unibet
2.04
Under
Pinnacle
1.81
Superbet
1.75
SBO
1.75
Betfair
1.75
1xBet
1.75
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
13.1%
@ 4.14-9.2%
Under 2.5
86.9%
@ 1.19+9.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
4.50
BetVictor
4.40
William Hil
4.20
Betano
4.10
Betfair
4.00
Under
Betano
1.21
Betfair
1.20
William Hil
1.20
Superbet
1.20
Marathonbet
1.18
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
VVV Venlo over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
44.6%
@ 1.82-6.5%
Under
55.4%
@ 1.90+6.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
1.90
Unibet
1.85
Betano
1.83
Pinnacle
1.79
Superbet
1.78
Under
Pinnacle
2.01
1xBet
1.93
Superbet
1.92
Betano
1.91
Marathonbet
1.90
VVV Venlo over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
11.5%
@ 5.00-7.1%
Under
88.5%
@ 1.14+7.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
5.50
Marathonbet
5.00
1xBet
4.90
Superbet
4.80
Betano
4.80
Under
Betano
1.16
Superbet
1.15
Marathonbet
1.14
1xBet
1.13
10Bet
1.11
VVV Venlo over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
1.9%
@ 14.17-4.8%
Under
98.1%
@ 1.02+4.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
17.00
Superbet
15.00
Betano
10.50
Under
Betano
1.03
10Bet
1.01
Superbet
1.01
De Graafschap over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
50.1%
@ 1.66-5.8%
Under
49.9%
@ 2.11+5.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
1.74
Betano
1.70
Pinnacle
1.66
Unibet
1.64
Superbet
1.63
Under
Pinnacle
2.20
1xBet
2.17
10Bet
2.15
Superbet
2.15
Betano
2.07
De Graafschap over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
13.0%
@ 4.08-9.7%
Under
87.0%
@ 1.20+9.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
4.25
Betano
4.15
Superbet
4.10
10Bet
4.00
1xBet
3.90
Under
1xBet
1.20
Betano
1.20
Superbet
1.20
10Bet
1.20
Marathonbet
1.18
De Graafschap over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
2.9%
@ 10.50-6.0%
Under
97.1%
@ 1.03+6.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
12.00
10Bet
10.00
Betano
9.50
Under
Betano
1.04
10Bet
1.03
Superbet
1.02
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
VVV Venlo
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
1.00
0.80
1.27
0.93
0.73
vs Stronger (6)
0.33
1.17
0.33
2.00
0.33
0.33
vs Similar (24)
1.00
0.96
0.92
1.08
1.08
0.83
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
33% (+10pp vs league)
This opponent (De Graafschap) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
De Graafschap
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.10
1.13
1.36
1.21
0.88
1.06
vs Stronger (1)
1.00
0.00
-
-
1.00
0.00
vs Similar (29)
1.10
1.17
1.36
1.21
0.87
1.13
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
37% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (VVV Venlo) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
78.0%
@ 1.11-5.9%
Under 0.5
22.0%
@ 5.79+5.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
888Sport
1.13
Bet365
1.12
William Hil
1.12
Betano
1.12
Superbet
1.11
Under
1xBet
6.10
Bet365
6.00
Betano
5.90
William Hil
5.80
888Sport
5.75
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
48.0%
@ 1.58-10.7%
Under 1.5
52.0%
@ 2.25+10.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
1.63
Bet365
1.62
Superbet
1.59
888Sport
1.57
William Hil
1.57
Under
Betano
2.35
William Hil
2.30
888Sport
2.30
Marathonbet
2.27
1xBet
2.27
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
20.8%
@ 2.77-12.8%
Under 2.5
79.2%
@ 1.40+12.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
3.00
William Hil
2.80
888Sport
2.80
Superbet
2.80
Betano
2.70
Under
Betano
1.45
Marathonbet
1.41
1xBet
1.41
William Hil
1.40
888Sport
1.40
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
VVV Venlo over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
55.1%
@ 1.54-5.1%
Under
44.9%
@ 2.33+5.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.55
1xBet
1.55
Betano
1.53
Under
Betano
2.40
1xBet
2.30
Superbet
2.30
VVV Venlo over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
19.9%
@ 3.51-6.6%
Under
80.1%
@ 1.26+6.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
3.60
Superbet
3.55
Marathonbet
3.48
Betano
3.40
Under
Betano
1.29
Marathonbet
1.26
Superbet
1.25
1xBet
1.24
VVV Venlo over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
5.3%
@ 9.03-5.0%
Under
94.7%
@ 1.04+5.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
10.00
Superbet
9.30
Betano
7.80
Under
Betano
1.06
Superbet
1.04
1xBet
1.01
De Graafschap over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
53.5%
@ 1.43-11.3%
Under
46.5%
@ 2.64+11.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.44
Superbet
1.44
1xBet
1.42
Under
Betano
2.67
1xBet
2.65
Superbet
2.60
De Graafschap over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
19.1%
@ 2.99-11.8%
Under
80.9%
@ 1.34+11.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
3.10
Marathonbet
3.02
Betano
2.95
1xBet
2.90
Under
Betano
1.37
1xBet
1.34
Marathonbet
1.33
Superbet
1.32
De Graafschap over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
6.2%
@ 7.37-6.4%
Under
93.8%
@ 1.06+6.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
7.80
1xBet
7.60
Betano
6.70
Under
Betano
1.09
Superbet
1.05
1xBet
1.04
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Home under 2.5 HT goals
98.1%
1.02
Betano
1.03
10Bet
1.01
Superbet
1.01
-
-
+4.8%
✓ Hit
Under 7.5
98.0%
1.01
1xBet
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
+2.6%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 HT goals
97.1%
1.03
Betano
1.04
10Bet
1.03
Superbet
1.02
-
-
+6.0%
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
94.8%
1.05
Betano
1.06
Bet365
1.05
1xBet
1.05
Superbet
1.04
Betfair
1.04
+4.3%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 2H goals
94.7%
1.04
Betano
1.06
Superbet
1.04
1xBet
1.01
-
-
+5.0%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 2H goals
93.8%
1.06
Betano
1.09
Superbet
1.05
1xBet
1.04
-
-
+6.4%
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
93.2%
1.05
Betano
1.08
888Sport
1.06
Betfair
1.05
Superbet
1.05
Bet365
1.05
+4.0%
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
89.2%
1.10
Betano
1.11
1xBet
1.11
Bet365
1.10
Betfair
1.10
888Sport
1.10
+4.4%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 HT goals
88.5%
1.14
Betano
1.16
Superbet
1.15
Marathonbet
1.14
1xBet
1.13
10Bet
1.11
+7.1%
✗ Miss
Under 5.5
88.1%
1.12
Betano
1.15
Pinnacle
1.15
888Sport
1.14
Bet365
1.14
Betfair
1.13
+5.3%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards
87.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 HT goals
87.0%
1.20
1xBet
1.20
Betano
1.20
Superbet
1.20
10Bet
1.20
Marathonbet
1.18
+9.7%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 HT goals
86.9%
1.19
Betano
1.21
Betfair
1.20
William Hil
1.20
Superbet
1.20
Marathonbet
1.18
+9.2%
✗ Miss
Over 1.5
85.3%
1.10
10Bet
1.14
Unibet
1.12
Betano
1.12
Pinnacle
1.11
888Sport
1.11
+0.5%
✓ Hit
Away +2 handicap
84.6%
1.12
Superbet
1.15
Betfair
1.13
Marathonbet
1.11
Bet365
1.11
-
+4.5%
✓ Hit
Away over 0.5 goals
83.4%
1.12
Betano
1.14
888Sport
1.13
Betfair
1.13
10Bet
1.12
Bet365
1.12
+0.6%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 2H goals
80.9%
1.34
Betano
1.37
1xBet
1.34
Marathonbet
1.33
Superbet
1.32
-
+11.8%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 goals
80.5%
1.22
Betano
1.26
Pinnacle
1.25
Marathonbet
1.24
1xBet
1.24
Superbet
1.24
+4.6%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 2H goals
80.1%
1.26
Betano
1.29
Marathonbet
1.26
Superbet
1.25
1xBet
1.24
-
+6.6%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 2H goals
79.2%
1.40
Betano
1.45
Marathonbet
1.41
1xBet
1.41
William Hil
1.40
888Sport
1.40
+12.8%
✓ Hit
Home over 0.5 goals
78.0%
1.18
Pinnacle
1.21
10Bet
1.20
Bet365
1.20
Betano
1.19
Unibet
1.18
-0.5%
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 2H goals
78.0%
1.11
888Sport
1.13
Bet365
1.12
William Hil
1.12
Betano
1.12
Superbet
1.11
-5.9%
✗ Miss
Over 19.5 fouls
77.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 8.5 corners
76.4%
1.28
Superbet
1.32
Unibet
1.29
Betano
1.29
1xBet
1.25
Marathonbet
1.24
+4.9%
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
76.0%
1.23
Bet365
1.25
10Bet
1.25
Superbet
1.23
Unibet
1.23
Betfair
1.22
+3.5%
✓ Hit
Under 4.5
76.0%
1.32
Pinnacle
1.37
Bet365
1.36
Betano
1.35
888Sport
1.33
Betfair
1.33
+5.7%
✓ Hit
Home or Away
75.3%
1.23
888Sport
1.25
Betano
1.25
Bet365
1.25
William Hil
1.25
Unibet
1.25
-0.6%
✓ Hit
Under 4.5 cards
74.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
73.1%
1.33
Betano
1.36
Pinnacle
1.35
BetVictor
1.33
1xBet
1.33
Betfair
1.33
+3.6%
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 HT goals
70.8%
1.21
Betano
1.24
Bet365
1.22
10Bet
1.22
Superbet
1.21
1xBet
1.20
-6.0%
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
VVV Venlo
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Dean Zandbergen50%
Edhy Zuliani50%
Devy Hendrix33%
Nassim Ait Mouhou33%
Luis Görlich25%
Raf Vullers25%
Alex Schalk0%
Youri Schoonderwaldt0%
Gabin Blancquart0%
Eanna Clancy0%
Mohammed Odriss0%
Lars de Blok0%
Tristan Schenkhuizen0%
Tijn Joosten0%
Thomas Janssen0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Luis Görlich75%
Edhy Zuliani50%
Alex Schalk33%
Mohammed Odriss25%
Thomas Janssen25%
Youri Schoonderwaldt0%
Dean Zandbergen0%
Devy Hendrix0%
Gabin Blancquart0%
Nassim Ait Mouhou0%
Eanna Clancy0%
Lars de Blok0%
Tristan Schenkhuizen0%
Tijn Joosten0%
Raf Vullers0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Lars de Blok75%
Alex Schalk67%
Devy Hendrix33%
Edhy Zuliani25%
Mohammed Odriss25%
Youri Schoonderwaldt0%
Luis Görlich0%
Dean Zandbergen0%
Gabin Blancquart0%
Nassim Ait Mouhou0%
Eanna Clancy0%
Tristan Schenkhuizen0%
Tijn Joosten0%
Thomas Janssen0%
Raf Vullers0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Dean Zandbergen50%
Tristan Schenkhuizen25%
Alex Schalk0%
Youri Schoonderwaldt0%
Luis Görlich0%
Devy Hendrix0%
Gabin Blancquart0%
Nassim Ait Mouhou0%
Edhy Zuliani0%
Eanna Clancy0%
Mohammed Odriss0%
Lars de Blok0%
Tijn Joosten0%
Thomas Janssen0%
Raf Vullers0%
De Graafschap
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Julian Kania50%
Donny Warmerdam25%
Bjorn van Zijl25%
Jason Meerstadt0%
Ties Wieggers0%
Nathan Kaninda0%
Kaya Symons0%
Joran Hardeman0%
Rowan Besselink0%
Nart Ahmeti0%
Toivo Mero0%
Denzel Eijken0%
Gijs Bolk0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Donny Warmerdam50%
Kaya Symons33%
Rowan Besselink33%
Nart Ahmeti25%
Julian Kania25%
Gijs Bolk25%
Jason Meerstadt0%
Ties Wieggers0%
Nathan Kaninda0%
Joran Hardeman0%
Toivo Mero0%
Denzel Eijken0%
Bjorn van Zijl0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Toivo Mero67%
Nart Ahmeti25%
Jason Meerstadt0%
Donny Warmerdam0%
Ties Wieggers0%
Nathan Kaninda0%
Kaya Symons0%
Joran Hardeman0%
Rowan Besselink0%
Julian Kania0%
Denzel Eijken0%
Gijs Bolk0%
Bjorn van Zijl0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Julian Kania75%
Joran Hardeman25%
Jason Meerstadt0%
Donny Warmerdam0%
Ties Wieggers0%
Nathan Kaninda0%
Kaya Symons0%
Rowan Besselink0%
Nart Ahmeti0%
Toivo Mero0%
Denzel Eijken0%
Gijs Bolk0%
Bjorn van Zijl0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
JA (24)
€19m
NB (23)
€10m
ACF (27)
€10m
HER (28)
€8m
ROD (17)
€8m
WAA (22)
€8m
VIT (23)
€7m
JPU (14)
€7m
FV (20)
€6m
DG (21)
€6m
DOR (21)
€6m
DB (17)
€5m
JA (19)
€5m
EMM (21)
€5m
MVV (21)
€4m
HS (16)
€4m
VV (19)
€4m
FO (17)
€4m
FE (16)
€3m
JU (8)
€2m
VVV Venlo's squad is €2m less valuable than De Graafschap's (€4m vs €6m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ACF (10)
€5m
JA (7)
€4m
ROD (7)
€4m
VIT (9)
€4m
NB (10)
€4m
HER (13)
€4m
WAA (8)
€3m
DB (7)
€3m
DOR (8)
€2m
JA (7)
€2m
FV (6)
€2m
DG (8)
€2m
FE (8)
€2m
HS (5)
€2m
MVV (8)
€1m
VV (6)
€1m
EMM (6)
€1m
JPU (4)
€1m
FO (5)
€1m
JU (3)
€1m
VVV Venlo and De Graafschap have a similar attack value (both €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
JA (6)
€3m
JPU (3)
€3m
EMM (7)
€2m
NB (3)
€2m
ACF (5)
€2m
DOR (5)
€2m
DG (5)
€2m
ROD (4)
€2m
HER (4)
€1m
MVV (4)
€1m
FV (3)
€1m
JA (4)
€1m
DB (3)
€1m
HS (5)
€1m
FO (3)
€1m
WAA (3)
€1m
JU (2)
€1m
VIT (3)
€1m
FE (2)
€0m
VV (3)
€0m
VVV Venlo's midfield is €1m less valuable than De Graafschap's (€0m vs €2m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
JA (11)
€12m
NB (10)
€4m
WAA (11)
€3m
HER (11)
€3m
FV (11)
€3m
ACF (12)
€3m
JPU (7)
€3m
DG (8)
€2m
VIT (11)
€2m
VV (10)
€2m
ROD (6)
€2m
FO (9)
€2m
JA (8)
€2m
DOR (8)
€2m
HS (6)
€2m
MVV (9)
€2m
EMM (8)
€1m
DB (7)
€1m
FE (6)
€1m
JU (3)
€1m
VVV Venlo and De Graafschap have a similar defence value (both €2m).
Netherlands: Eerste Divisie 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Netherlands: Eerste Divisie stats & trends →
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Heracles
MVV
Almere City FC
Emmen
Jong PSV U21
Vitesse
Roda
NAC Breda
FC Volendam
Jong AZ
Waalwijk
Den Bosch
Jong Ajax
Dordrecht
FC OSS
FC Eindhoven
Helmond Sport
Jong Utrecht