The model points to a VVV Venlo win, with a 43% chance of a home victory, a 25% draw and a 33% chance of an Emmen win. The expected total of 3.3 goals translates to an average of 3 goals, the most likely total, with a 22% probability. The single score that the model deems most probable is 1-1, with a 10.8% chance. Venlo’s home form shows they average 1.67 goals scored and 1.58 conceded against similar opposition, while Emmen, on the road, averages 1.5 goals scored and 2.25 conceded to comparable teams. The model’s selections lean heavily on low-scoring halves: the best-priced pick is Away under 2.5 HT goals at 97.8% with a 6% edge, followed by Home under 2.5 HT goals at 96.8% (5% edge), Under 7.5 total at 96.5% (2% edge), Home under 2.5 2H goals at 95.0% (6% edge), Away under 2.5 2H goals at 92.3% (3% edge), Under 6.5 at 91.8% (0% edge), Away under 3.5 goals at 90.6% (3% edge) and Away under 1.5 HT goals at 88.2% (8% edge). The model’s edge over the market is strongest on the early halves, where the probability of very low scoring is markedly higher than typical expectations.
Results analysis
The win extends Venlo’s three-game winning run, a sharp contrast to Emmen’s five-game streak that ended in a 0-4 loss. The model’s favourite, a home win at 43%, proved correct as Venlo triumphed 4-0. The most likely score of 1-1 fell short, but the 4-0 result still satisfied the model’s prediction of a home victory. Every suggested pick was settled: Away under 2.5 HT goals hit at 97.8%, Home under 2.5 HT goals hit at 96.8%, Under 7.5 hit at 96.5%, Home under 2.5 2H goals hit at 95.0%, Away under 2.5 2H goals hit at 92.3%, Under 6.5 hit at 91.8%, Away under 3.5 goals hit at 90.6%, and Away under 1.5 HT goals hit at 88.2%. All selections performed as the model predicted.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
VVV Venlo win✓ Hit
42.6%
Avg Implied 38.7% · @ 2.39
Edge
+3.9%
Best 5 market prices
Dafabet
2.55
Superbet
2.52
Unibet
2.45
Bet365
2.45
Pinnacle
2.41
Draw✗ Miss
24.7%
Avg Implied 24.6% · @ 3.77
Edge
+0.1%
Best 5 market prices
Betfair
4.00
Marathonbet
3.90
1xBet
3.90
Pinnacle
3.89
Dafabet
3.85
Emmen win✗ Miss
32.7%
Avg Implied 36.7% · @ 2.53
Edge
-3.9%
Best 5 market prices
Betano
2.65
Pinnacle
2.64
Bet365
2.60
William Hil
2.60
10Bet
2.55
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
VVV Venlo
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.3
Avg scored
1.8
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.30
1.60
1.40
1.87
1.20
1.33
vs Stronger (6)
0.50
1.83
0.33
3.00
0.67
0.67
vs Similar (24)
1.50
1.54
1.67
1.58
1.33
1.50
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
20% (-3pp vs league)
This opponent (Emmen) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Emmen
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
4.1
Avg scored
2.0
Avg conceded
2.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.57
1.77
1.67
1.40
1.47
2.13
vs Stronger (7)
1.86
1.71
2.25
1.75
1.33
1.67
vs Similar (23)
1.48
1.78
1.45
1.27
1.50
2.25
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
17% (-6pp vs league)
This opponent (VVV Venlo) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
85.6%
@ 1.10+0.9%
Under 1.5
14.4%
@ 6.11-0.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.13
10Bet
1.12
Bet365
1.11
Superbet
1.11
Pinnacle
1.11
Under
Pinnacle
6.69
Bet365
6.50
Betfair
6.50
BetVictor
6.50
1xBet
6.15
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
64.9%
@ 1.39-2.2%
Under 2.5
35.1%
@ 2.82+2.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.42
Unibet
1.40
Superbet
1.40
10Bet
1.40
Bet365
1.40
Under
Pinnacle
2.94
BetVictor
2.90
Betfair
2.88
10Bet
2.88
Bet365
2.88
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
42.9%
@ 2.00-4.0%
Under 3.5
57.1%
@ 1.76+4.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
SBO
2.13
Pinnacle
2.03
Unibet
2.02
Marathonbet
2.00
1xBet
2.00
Under
Pinnacle
1.81
Bet365
1.80
10Bet
1.80
Betfair
1.80
Betano
1.78
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
66.6%
@ 1.35-1.8%
No
33.4%
@ 2.94+1.8%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Unibet
1.38
Superbet
1.37
Betfair
1.36
Bet365
1.36
William Hil
1.36
No
Betfair
3.10
Bet365
3.00
BetVictor
3.00
1xBet
2.99
10Bet
2.95
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
10.8%@ 7.88+5.0%
2-1
8.8%@ 9.20+3.8%
1-2
7.6%@ 9.40+2.8%
2-2
6.8%@ 9.69+2.1%
2-0
5.7%@ 15.64+2.7%
1-0
5.3%@ 13.22+1.9%
3-1
5.2%@ 14.96+2.2%
0-0
4.5%@ 18.73+2.1%
VVV Venlo goals ↓
Emmen goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
4.5%
4.5%
4.3%
2.2%
0.9%
1
5.3%
11%
7.6%
4.0%
1.5%
2
5.7%
8.8%
6.8%
3.5%
1.4%
3
3.4%
5.2%
4.1%
2.1%
0.8%
4
1.5%
2.3%
1.8%
0.9%
0.4%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = VVV Venlo goals (down), columns = Emmen goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
De Graafschap
1.60
Almere City FC
1.55
Heracles
1.53
NAC Breda
1.50
FC Volendam
1.50
Jong PSV U21
1.47
Vitesse
1.47
Waalwijk
1.45
Roda
1.43
Den Bosch
1.27
Dordrecht
1.24
FC Eindhoven
1.24
Jong Utrecht
1.21
Emmen
1.18
VVV Venlo
1.18
FC OSS
1.16
Jong AZ
1.05
Helmond Sport
1.03
MVV
1.00
Jong Ajax
0.92
VVV Venlo and Emmen are level in average points per game (both 1.18).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Almere City FC
2.02
De Graafschap
1.93
Waalwijk
1.76
Heracles
1.74
Jong PSV U21
1.74
NAC Breda
1.71
Vitesse
1.68
Den Bosch
1.68
Jong AZ
1.61
Emmen
1.53
Jong Utrecht
1.53
Roda
1.52
FC Volendam
1.50
FC OSS
1.42
FC Eindhoven
1.34
VVV Venlo
1.32
Jong Ajax
1.32
Dordrecht
1.26
Helmond Sport
1.11
MVV
1.08
VVV Venlo is 0.21 goals worse than Emmen in terms of goals scored per game (1.32 vs 1.53).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Roda
1.40
Heracles
1.44
Vitesse
1.45
NAC Breda
1.47
Dordrecht
1.47
FC Volendam
1.50
Waalwijk
1.50
VVV Venlo
1.53
De Graafschap
1.57
Almere City FC
1.61
Jong Utrecht
1.63
Helmond Sport
1.63
Jong PSV U21
1.68
FC OSS
1.68
FC Eindhoven
1.82
Den Bosch
1.88
Emmen
1.89
MVV
1.92
Jong Ajax
1.92
Jong AZ
2.00
VVV Venlo is 0.37 goals better than Emmen in terms of goals conceded per game (1.53 vs 1.89).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
De Graafschap
56%
Jong AZ
54%
Roda
52%
Emmen
52%
Jong PSV U21
52%
Jong Ajax
52%
Waalwijk
50%
VVV Venlo
49%
Helmond Sport
49%
Dordrecht
48%
Almere City FC
48%
Jong Utrecht
48%
Den Bosch
47%
Vitesse
46%
FC Eindhoven
44%
MVV
44%
FC OSS
43%
VVV Venlo is 2.8 percentage points worse than Emmen in terms of average possession (49% vs 52%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
VVV Venlo
For 4.7 · Against 6.0 · Total 10.7
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.7 · Against 1.9 · Total 3.6
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.4 · Against 12.1 · Total 22.5
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Emmen
For 5.5 · Against 4.1 · Total 9.6
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 3.5 · Against 0.9 · Total 4.4
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 16.2 · Against 10.0 · Total 26.2
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
VVV Venlo
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
11.2
10.6
11.7
3.4
3.2
3.6
23.8
22.3
25.4
vs Stronger (8)
9.8
10.2
9.0
2.6
2.0
3.7
23.2
20.0
28.7
vs Similar (42)
11.4
10.7
12.1
3.5
3.5
3.5
23.9
22.9
24.9
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
70%
64%
76%
40%
36%
44%
60%
52%
68%
% under line
30%
36%
24%
60%
64%
56%
40%
48%
32%
This opponent (Emmen) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Emmen
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.3
11.0
9.6
3.6
3.5
3.6
25.7
26.7
24.7
vs Stronger (9)
11.8
13.2
9.3
2.7
3.4
1.8
23.1
23.0
23.3
vs Similar (41)
10.0
10.4
9.7
3.8
3.5
4.0
26.2
27.6
24.9
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
60%
71%
50%
46%
48%
44%
71%
67%
75%
% under line
40%
29%
50%
54%
52%
56%
29%
33%
25%
This opponent (VVV Venlo) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Den Bosch
12.2
FC OSS
11.9
De Graafschap
11.9
Dordrecht
11.3
VVV Venlo
11.2
Almere City FC
11.0
Heracles
10.7
Helmond Sport
10.7
Jong PSV U21
10.6
Jong Ajax
10.6
Jong AZ
10.5
FC Eindhoven
10.4
FC Volendam
10.3
Emmen
10.3
MVV
10.2
Vitesse
10.0
Waalwijk
10.0
Roda
9.9
NAC Breda
9.8
Jong Utrecht
9.5
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Vitesse
4.5
Dordrecht
4.3
FC OSS
4.1
Jong Ajax
3.9
NAC Breda
3.9
Emmen
3.8
Den Bosch
3.7
VVV Venlo
3.5
Heracles
3.5
Jong AZ
3.4
FC Volendam
3.4
Roda
3.3
Helmond Sport
3.3
Waalwijk
3.3
De Graafschap
3.3
MVV
3.2
Jong PSV U21
3.2
FC Eindhoven
3.1
Almere City FC
3.0
Jong Utrecht
2.9
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
FC OSS
29.0
Vitesse
26.7
Emmen
25.9
Dordrecht
25.8
Jong Utrecht
25.5
Helmond Sport
25.4
Jong Ajax
25.0
Roda
24.8
Heracles
24.1
VVV Venlo
23.8
Jong PSV U21
23.5
Jong AZ
23.5
Den Bosch
23.3
NAC Breda
22.9
De Graafschap
22.7
FC Eindhoven
22.6
MVV
22.5
Waalwijk
22.4
FC Volendam
22.3
Almere City FC
20.7
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
58.9%
@ 1.51-1.9%
Under 9.5
41.1%
@ 2.34+1.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.56
Betano
1.53
1xBet
1.51
Marathonbet
1.50
Unibet
1.46
Under
Unibet
2.45
Betano
2.40
Pinnacle
2.32
Marathonbet
2.31
1xBet
2.23
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
46.5%
Under 3.5
53.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Under
Over 21.5
69.2%
Under 21.5
30.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
VVV Venlo or Draw✓ Hit
67.3%
Avg Implied 62.9% · @ 1.48
Edge
+4.4%
43%
25%
33%
covers VVV Venlo + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Bet365
1.53
Betfair
1.53
Superbet
1.50
Betano
1.50
10Bet
1.50
VVV Venlo or Emmen✓ Hit
76.9%
Avg Implied 75.5% · @ 1.24
Edge
+1.5%
43%
25%
33%
covers VVV Venlo + Emmen
Best 5 market prices
Bet365
1.28
Betano
1.27
William Hil
1.25
BetVictor
1.25
Superbet
1.25
Draw or Emmen✗ Miss
55.8%
Avg Implied 61.6% · @ 1.51
Edge
-5.8%
43%
25%
33%
covers Draw + Emmen
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.60
10Bet
1.55
1xBet
1.54
Marathonbet
1.54
Betfair
1.53
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
VVV Venlo over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
86.4%
@ 1.15+5.9%
Under
13.6%
@ 4.74-5.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.21
Bet365
1.17
Betano
1.16
Superbet
1.15
Betfair
1.14
Under
BetVictor
5.25
10Bet
5.00
Betfair
5.00
Bet365
5.00
Betano
4.90
VVV Venlo over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
59.2%
@ 1.75+6.4%
Under
40.8%
@ 1.97-6.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.83
Superbet
1.80
Unibet
1.77
Pinnacle
1.76
Marathonbet
1.74
Under
Pinnacle
2.06
Betano
2.05
Marathonbet
2.02
Betfair
2.00
10Bet
2.00
VVV Venlo over/under 2.5Actual: Over
Over
32.2%
@ 3.40+4.9%
Under
67.8%
@ 1.27-4.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
3.75
Betfair
3.50
Unibet
3.50
Superbet
3.45
Pinnacle
3.37
Under
Betano
1.32
1xBet
1.30
Pinnacle
1.30
BetVictor
1.29
10Bet
1.28
VVV Venlo over/under 3.5Actual: Over
Over
14.2%
@ 7.32+1.4%
Under
85.8%
@ 1.07-1.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
9.00
Betfair
7.50
Superbet
7.30
Betano
6.40
1xBet
6.40
Under
Betano
1.09
1xBet
1.07
Bet365
1.07
Betfair
1.06
Superbet
1.06
Emmen over/under 0.5Actual: Under
Over
81.8%
@ 1.15+1.5%
Under
18.2%
@ 4.71-1.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.17
Betano
1.17
1xBet
1.16
10Bet
1.15
Superbet
1.15
Under
Bet365
5.00
Betfair
5.00
BetVictor
4.80
10Bet
4.75
Superbet
4.75
Emmen over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
50.8%
@ 1.80-0.6%
Under
49.2%
@ 1.91+0.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.85
Marathonbet
1.82
Betano
1.82
1xBet
1.82
BetVictor
1.80
Under
Betfair
2.00
Pinnacle
1.96
Betano
1.93
Marathonbet
1.92
Superbet
1.92
Emmen over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
24.4%
@ 3.50-2.0%
Under
75.6%
@ 1.26+2.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
3.70
BetVictor
3.60
Marathonbet
3.56
1xBet
3.55
10Bet
3.50
Under
Betfair
1.29
Betano
1.28
Bet365
1.28
Superbet
1.27
Pinnacle
1.26
Emmen over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
9.4%
@ 7.30-3.4%
Under
90.6%
@ 1.07+3.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
8.00
Betfair
7.50
Superbet
7.20
Betano
7.00
1xBet
6.80
Under
Betano
1.08
Bet365
1.08
Superbet
1.06
Betfair
1.06
1xBet
1.06
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to VVV Venlo, so a minus line means VVV Venlo give that many goals of a start and Emmen receive them. At -1, VVV Venlo must win by two or more to land; a one-goal VVV Venlo win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (VVV Venlo)Actual: VVV Venlo
VVV Venlo -2
11.9%
@ 8.93+1.8%
Draw -2
13.5%
@ 7.03+0.7%
Emmen +2
74.6%
@ 1.16-2.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
10.00
Marathonbet
8.70
Bet365
8.50
Unibet
8.50
Draw
Betfair
7.50
Marathonbet
7.10
Bet365
7.00
Unibet
6.50
Away
Bet365
1.20
Unibet
1.16
Marathonbet
1.15
Betfair
1.14
Handicap -1 (VVV Venlo)Actual: VVV Venlo
VVV Venlo -1
25.4%
@ 4.39+5.0%
Draw -1
18.8%
@ 4.50-1.1%
Emmen +1
55.8%
@ 1.50-3.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
4.75
Betfair
4.50
Unibet
4.30
10Bet
4.20
Marathonbet
4.20
Draw
Bet365
5.00
Marathonbet
4.50
Betfair
4.50
Unibet
4.30
10Bet
4.20
Away
10Bet
1.55
Marathonbet
1.54
Betfair
1.50
Unibet
1.48
Bet365
1.44
Handicap +1 (VVV Venlo)Actual: VVV Venlo
VVV Venlo +1
67.3%
@ 1.49+7.1%
Draw +1
16.0%
@ 4.54-3.7%
Emmen -1
16.7%
@ 4.44-3.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Superbet
1.51
10Bet
1.50
Betfair
1.50
Unibet
1.50
Marathonbet
1.47
Draw
Bet365
5.00
Marathonbet
4.70
Betfair
4.50
Superbet
4.50
10Bet
4.33
Away
Bet365
4.75
Marathonbet
4.65
10Bet
4.50
Betfair
4.33
Superbet
4.20
Handicap +2 (VVV Venlo)Actual: VVV Venlo
VVV Venlo +2
83.3%
@ 1.17+7.7%
Draw +2
9.9%
@ 6.46-3.9%
Emmen -2
6.9%
@ 8.25-3.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
10Bet
1.22
Superbet
1.19
Bet365
1.17
Betfair
1.17
Unibet
1.17
Draw
Bet365
8.00
Betfair
7.00
Superbet
6.50
Unibet
6.40
10Bet
6.00
Away
Bet365
10.00
Betfair
9.50
Unibet
8.50
Superbet
8.10
10Bet
7.50
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
VVV Venlo
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.43
0.60
0.60
0.60
0.27
0.60
vs Stronger (6)
0.17
0.67
0.00
1.00
0.33
0.33
vs Similar (24)
0.50
0.58
0.75
0.50
0.25
0.67
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
53% (+30pp vs league)
This opponent (Emmen) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Emmen
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
1.10
0.80
0.87
0.47
1.33
vs Stronger (7)
0.86
1.14
0.75
1.25
1.00
1.00
vs Similar (23)
0.57
1.09
0.82
0.73
0.33
1.42
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (VVV Venlo) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
74.2%
@ 1.20-2.9%
Under 0.5
25.8%
@ 4.04+2.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.26
10Bet
1.22
Bet365
1.22
Superbet
1.21
BetVictor
1.20
Under
Betfair
4.50
William Hil
4.20
BetVictor
4.10
Marathonbet
4.10
1xBet
4.10
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
38.6%
@ 2.00-7.9%
Under 1.5
61.4%
@ 1.74+7.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.10
SBO
2.05
1xBet
2.02
Marathonbet
2.02
Bet365
2.00
Under
Pinnacle
1.83
SBO
1.79
10Bet
1.77
William Hil
1.75
BetVictor
1.74
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
13.4%
@ 4.25-8.4%
Under 2.5
86.6%
@ 1.19+8.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
4.50
Bet365
4.33
BetVictor
4.33
1xBet
4.25
Marathonbet
4.25
Under
William Hil
1.22
Betano
1.20
Bet365
1.20
Superbet
1.19
BetVictor
1.18
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
VVV Venlo over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
48.5%
@ 1.71-6.0%
Under
51.5%
@ 2.04+6.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.75
Superbet
1.73
Unibet
1.72
Pinnacle
1.71
1xBet
1.69
Under
Pinnacle
2.12
10Bet
2.10
1xBet
2.04
Marathonbet
2.03
Betano
2.02
VVV Venlo over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
13.7%
@ 4.50-6.9%
Under
86.3%
@ 1.17+6.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
4.75
Superbet
4.55
Betano
4.45
1xBet
4.40
10Bet
4.33
Under
10Bet
1.18
Betano
1.18
1xBet
1.16
Superbet
1.16
Marathonbet
1.15
VVV Venlo over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
3.2%
@ 11.67-4.8%
Under
96.8%
@ 1.02+4.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
14.00
10Bet
11.00
Betano
10.00
Under
Betano
1.03
10Bet
1.02
Superbet
1.01
Emmen over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
49.7%
@ 1.73-3.8%
Under
50.3%
@ 1.99+3.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.80
Pinnacle
1.74
10Bet
1.73
Marathonbet
1.73
Superbet
1.72
Under
Pinnacle
2.07
10Bet
2.00
1xBet
2.00
Superbet
2.00
Marathonbet
1.97
Emmen over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
11.8%
@ 4.65-8.1%
Under
88.2%
@ 1.16+8.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
5.05
Betano
4.70
10Bet
4.50
Superbet
4.50
1xBet
4.50
Under
Superbet
1.17
10Bet
1.17
Betano
1.17
1xBet
1.15
Marathonbet
1.13
Emmen over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
2.2%
@ 11.83-5.7%
Under
97.8%
@ 1.02+5.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
13.00
10Bet
12.00
Betano
10.50
Under
Betano
1.03
Superbet
1.02
10Bet
1.02
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
VVV Venlo
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
1.00
0.80
1.27
0.93
0.73
vs Stronger (6)
0.33
1.17
0.33
2.00
0.33
0.33
vs Similar (24)
1.00
0.96
0.92
1.08
1.08
0.83
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
33% (+10pp vs league)
This opponent (Emmen) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Emmen
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.93
0.67
0.87
0.53
1.00
0.80
vs Stronger (7)
1.00
0.57
1.50
0.50
0.33
0.67
vs Similar (23)
0.91
0.70
0.64
0.55
1.17
0.83
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (VVV Venlo) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
80.9%
@ 1.11-2.6%
Under 0.5
19.1%
@ 5.67+2.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.13
Bet365
1.12
Superbet
1.12
William Hil
1.12
1xBet
1.10
Under
Bet365
6.00
1xBet
5.80
Betano
5.70
Marathonbet
5.55
William Hil
5.50
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
51.4%
@ 1.60-6.5%
Under 1.5
48.6%
@ 2.20+6.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.62
Superbet
1.61
Unibet
1.61
Betano
1.60
William Hil
1.60
Under
Betano
2.32
1xBet
2.21
Marathonbet
2.21
Bet365
2.20
William Hil
2.20
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
25.6%
@ 2.86-6.9%
Under 2.5
74.4%
@ 1.38+6.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
3.00
William Hil
2.88
Superbet
2.87
Marathonbet
2.84
1xBet
2.84
Under
Betano
1.44
Superbet
1.37
William Hil
1.36
1xBet
1.36
Bet365
1.36
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
VVV Venlo over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
57.1%
@ 1.48-5.7%
Under
42.9%
@ 2.50+5.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.51
1xBet
1.48
Betano
1.47
10Bet
1.45
Under
Betano
2.57
10Bet
2.55
1xBet
2.46
Superbet
2.40
VVV Venlo over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
18.3%
@ 3.25-10.1%
Under
81.7%
@ 1.29+10.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
3.40
Marathonbet
3.34
1xBet
3.20
10Bet
3.20
Betano
3.10
Under
Betano
1.34
10Bet
1.30
1xBet
1.28
Marathonbet
1.28
Superbet
1.27
VVV Venlo over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
5.0%
@ 8.20-6.3%
Under
95.0%
@ 1.04+6.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
8.90
Superbet
8.70
10Bet
8.00
Betano
7.20
Under
Betano
1.07
10Bet
1.05
Superbet
1.04
1xBet
1.02
Emmen over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
62.3%
@ 1.50+0.3%
Under
37.7%
@ 2.44-0.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.50
Superbet
1.50
1xBet
1.50
10Bet
1.48
Under
Betano
2.47
10Bet
2.45
1xBet
2.42
Superbet
2.40
Emmen over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
21.7%
@ 3.39-5.7%
Under
78.3%
@ 1.28+5.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
3.55
10Bet
3.40
Superbet
3.40
Betano
3.30
1xBet
3.30
Under
Betano
1.31
10Bet
1.28
Superbet
1.27
1xBet
1.27
Marathonbet
1.25
Emmen over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
7.7%
@ 8.47-3.3%
Under
92.3%
@ 1.04+3.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
9.20
Superbet
8.60
10Bet
8.50
Betano
7.60
Under
Betano
1.06
10Bet
1.04
Superbet
1.04
1xBet
1.02
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Away under 2.5 HT goals
97.8%
1.02
Betano
1.03
Superbet
1.02
10Bet
1.02
-
-
+5.7%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 HT goals
96.8%
1.02
Betano
1.03
10Bet
1.02
Superbet
1.01
-
-
+4.8%
✓ Hit
Under 7.5
96.5%
1.02
Betano
1.03
1xBet
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
+1.6%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 2H goals
95.0%
1.04
Betano
1.07
10Bet
1.05
Superbet
1.04
1xBet
1.02
-
+6.3%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 2H goals
92.3%
1.04
Betano
1.06
10Bet
1.04
Superbet
1.04
1xBet
1.02
-
+3.3%
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
91.8%
1.04
Betano
1.06
1xBet
1.04
Bet365
1.04
Betfair
1.04
Superbet
1.03
+0.5%
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
90.6%
1.07
Betano
1.08
Bet365
1.08
Superbet
1.06
Betfair
1.06
1xBet
1.06
+3.4%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 HT goals
88.2%
1.16
Superbet
1.17
10Bet
1.17
Betano
1.17
1xBet
1.15
Marathonbet
1.13
+8.1%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 HT goals
86.6%
1.19
William Hil
1.22
Betano
1.20
Bet365
1.20
Superbet
1.19
BetVictor
1.18
+8.4%
✓ Hit
Home over 0.5 goals
86.4%
1.15
Pinnacle
1.21
Bet365
1.17
Betano
1.16
Superbet
1.15
Betfair
1.14
+5.9%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 HT goals
86.3%
1.17
10Bet
1.18
Betano
1.18
1xBet
1.16
Superbet
1.16
Marathonbet
1.15
+6.9%
✗ Miss
Home under 3.5 goals
85.8%
1.07
Betano
1.09
1xBet
1.07
Bet365
1.07
Betfair
1.06
Superbet
1.06
-1.4%
✗ Miss
Under 5.5 cards
85.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 1.5
85.6%
1.10
Betano
1.13
10Bet
1.12
Bet365
1.11
Superbet
1.11
Pinnacle
1.11
+0.9%
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
83.3%
1.17
10Bet
1.22
Superbet
1.19
Bet365
1.17
Betfair
1.17
Unibet
1.17
+7.7%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
83.0%
1.11
Betano
1.14
10Bet
1.13
Betfair
1.13
Pinnacle
1.13
Bet365
1.12
-0.9%
✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
82.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away over 0.5 goals
81.8%
1.15
Bet365
1.17
Betano
1.17
1xBet
1.16
10Bet
1.15
Superbet
1.15
+1.5%
✗ Miss
Home under 1.5 2H goals
81.7%
1.29
Betano
1.34
10Bet
1.30
1xBet
1.28
Marathonbet
1.28
Superbet
1.27
+10.1%
✗ Miss
Over 0.5 2H goals
80.9%
1.11
Betano
1.13
Bet365
1.12
Superbet
1.12
William Hil
1.12
1xBet
1.10
-2.6%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 2H goals
78.3%
1.28
Betano
1.31
10Bet
1.28
Superbet
1.27
1xBet
1.27
Marathonbet
1.25
+5.7%
✓ Hit
Home or Away
76.9%
1.24
Bet365
1.28
Betano
1.27
William Hil
1.25
BetVictor
1.25
Superbet
1.25
+1.5%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
75.6%
1.26
Betfair
1.29
Betano
1.28
Bet365
1.28
Superbet
1.27
Pinnacle
1.26
+2.0%
✓ Hit
Away +2 handicap
74.6%
1.16
Bet365
1.20
Unibet
1.16
Marathonbet
1.15
Betfair
1.14
-
-2.5%
✗ Miss
Under 2.5 2H goals
74.4%
1.38
Betano
1.44
Superbet
1.37
William Hil
1.36
1xBet
1.36
Bet365
1.36
+6.9%
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 HT goals
74.2%
1.20
Betano
1.26
10Bet
1.22
Bet365
1.22
Superbet
1.21
BetVictor
1.20
-2.9%
✓ Hit
Under 4.5 cards
72.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 8.5 corners
70.9%
1.28
Betano
1.31
1xBet
1.28
Unibet
1.28
Marathonbet
1.27
-
+0.1%
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
VVV Venlo
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Dean Zandbergen50%
Edhy Zuliani50%
Devy Hendrix33%
Nassim Ait Mouhou33%
Luis Görlich25%
Raf Vullers25%
Alex Schalk0%
Youri Schoonderwaldt0%
Gabin Blancquart0%
Eanna Clancy0%
Mohammed Odriss0%
Lars de Blok0%
Tristan Schenkhuizen0%
Tijn Joosten0%
Thomas Janssen0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Luis Görlich75%
Edhy Zuliani50%
Alex Schalk33%
Mohammed Odriss25%
Thomas Janssen25%
Youri Schoonderwaldt0%
Dean Zandbergen0%
Devy Hendrix0%
Gabin Blancquart0%
Nassim Ait Mouhou0%
Eanna Clancy0%
Lars de Blok0%
Tristan Schenkhuizen0%
Tijn Joosten0%
Raf Vullers0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Lars de Blok75%
Alex Schalk67%
Devy Hendrix33%
Edhy Zuliani25%
Mohammed Odriss25%
Youri Schoonderwaldt0%
Luis Görlich0%
Dean Zandbergen0%
Gabin Blancquart0%
Nassim Ait Mouhou0%
Eanna Clancy0%
Tristan Schenkhuizen0%
Tijn Joosten0%
Thomas Janssen0%
Raf Vullers0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Dean Zandbergen50%
Tristan Schenkhuizen25%
Alex Schalk0%
Youri Schoonderwaldt0%
Luis Görlich0%
Devy Hendrix0%
Gabin Blancquart0%
Nassim Ait Mouhou0%
Edhy Zuliani0%
Eanna Clancy0%
Mohammed Odriss0%
Lars de Blok0%
Tijn Joosten0%
Thomas Janssen0%
Raf Vullers0%
Emmen
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Freddy Quispel75%
Nelson Amadin50%
Michael Breij25%
Jack Cooper Love25%
Alessandro Hojabrpour0%
Casper Staring0%
Bryan Van Hove0%
Mustafa Abdullatif0%
Joshua Mukeh0%
Yanis Dede-Lhomme0%
Luca Everink0%
Sam Karssies0%
Sybrand Veldhuis0%
Vincent Carus0%
Daan Lambers0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Alessandro Hojabrpour50%
Bryan Van Hove50%
Yanis Dede-Lhomme50%
Michael Breij25%
Joshua Mukeh25%
Luca Everink25%
Sybrand Veldhuis25%
Freddy Quispel0%
Nelson Amadin0%
Jack Cooper Love0%
Casper Staring0%
Mustafa Abdullatif0%
Sam Karssies0%
Vincent Carus0%
Daan Lambers0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Jack Cooper Love50%
Yanis Dede-Lhomme50%
Michael Breij25%
Casper Staring25%
Bryan Van Hove25%
Luca Everink25%
Sam Karssies25%
Freddy Quispel0%
Alessandro Hojabrpour0%
Nelson Amadin0%
Mustafa Abdullatif0%
Joshua Mukeh0%
Sybrand Veldhuis0%
Vincent Carus0%
Daan Lambers0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Freddy Quispel75%
Jack Cooper Love75%
Michael Breij50%
Nelson Amadin50%
Alessandro Hojabrpour0%
Casper Staring0%
Bryan Van Hove0%
Mustafa Abdullatif0%
Joshua Mukeh0%
Yanis Dede-Lhomme0%
Luca Everink0%
Sam Karssies0%
Sybrand Veldhuis0%
Vincent Carus0%
Daan Lambers0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
JA (24)
€19m
NB (23)
€10m
ACF (27)
€10m
HER (28)
€8m
ROD (17)
€8m
WAA (22)
€8m
VIT (23)
€7m
JPU (14)
€7m
FV (20)
€6m
DG (21)
€6m
DOR (21)
€6m
DB (17)
€5m
JA (19)
€5m
EMM (21)
€5m
MVV (21)
€4m
HS (16)
€4m
VV (19)
€4m
FO (17)
€4m
FE (16)
€3m
JU (8)
€2m
VVV Venlo and Emmen have a similar squad value (both €4m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ACF (10)
€5m
JA (7)
€4m
ROD (7)
€4m
VIT (9)
€4m
NB (10)
€4m
HER (13)
€4m
WAA (8)
€3m
DB (7)
€3m
DOR (8)
€2m
JA (7)
€2m
FV (6)
€2m
DG (8)
€2m
FE (8)
€2m
HS (5)
€2m
MVV (8)
€1m
VV (6)
€1m
EMM (6)
€1m
JPU (4)
€1m
FO (5)
€1m
JU (3)
€1m
VVV Venlo and Emmen have a similar attack value (both €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
JA (6)
€3m
JPU (3)
€3m
EMM (7)
€2m
NB (3)
€2m
ACF (5)
€2m
DOR (5)
€2m
DG (5)
€2m
ROD (4)
€2m
HER (4)
€1m
MVV (4)
€1m
FV (3)
€1m
JA (4)
€1m
DB (3)
€1m
HS (5)
€1m
FO (3)
€1m
WAA (3)
€1m
JU (2)
€1m
VIT (3)
€1m
FE (2)
€0m
VV (3)
€0m
VVV Venlo's midfield is €2m less valuable than Emmen's (€0m vs €2m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
JA (11)
€12m
NB (10)
€4m
WAA (11)
€3m
HER (11)
€3m
FV (11)
€3m
ACF (12)
€3m
JPU (7)
€3m
DG (8)
€2m
VIT (11)
€2m
VV (10)
€2m
ROD (6)
€2m
FO (9)
€2m
JA (8)
€2m
DOR (8)
€2m
HS (6)
€2m
MVV (9)
€2m
EMM (8)
€1m
DB (7)
€1m
FE (6)
€1m
JU (3)
€1m
VVV Venlo and Emmen have a similar defence value (both €2m).
Netherlands: Eerste Divisie 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Netherlands: Eerste Divisie stats & trends →
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Heracles
MVV
Almere City FC
Jong PSV U21
Vitesse
Roda
NAC Breda
FC Volendam
Jong AZ
Waalwijk
Den Bosch
Jong Ajax
Dordrecht
FC OSS
FC Eindhoven
Helmond Sport
De Graafschap
Jong Utrecht