Waalwijk’s recent draw streak and Jong PSV U21’s win-heavy run hint at a lively encounter, yet the model favours a home win with a 40% chance, a draw 25%, and an away win 35%. The expected total of 3.2 goals points to a high-scoring match, and the single most likely scoreline is 1-1, carrying a 11.4% probability. Home side Waalwijk averages 3.0 goals scored and 1.0 conceded against stronger opponents, while Jong PSV U21 averages 1.6 scored and 2.6 conceded against weaker sides. The model’s selections include Away under 2.5 HT goals at 98.3%, Away under 2.5 2H goals at 97.1%, Under 7.5 at 96.7%, Home under 2.5 HT goals at 93.7%, Under 6.5 at 92.2%, Home under 2.5 2H goals at 91.1%, Away under 1.5 HT goals at 90.3%, and Away under 3.5 goals at 90.2%. Each pick carries its own probability, with edges noted where available.
Results analysis
The upset came early as Waalwijk, the pre-match favourite, failed to secure the win, the match ending 2-2 for a draw. The model had picked a home win with a 41% probability, but that call was wrong. The game’s form story was that Waalwijk remained unbeaten in their last five matches, while Jong PSV U21 had just drawn their previous game. The model’s selections all hit: Away under 2.5 HT goals at 98.2%, Away under 2.5 2H goals at 97.1%, Under 7.5 at 96.7%, Home under 2.5 HT goals at 93.4%, Under 6.5 at 92.2%, Home under 2.5 2H goals at 92.1%, Away under 1.5 HT goals at 91.4%, and Away under 3.5 goals at 90.2%.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Waalwijk win✗ Miss
41.2%
Avg Implied 54.7% · @ 1.70
Edge
-13.5%
Best 5 market prices
10Bet
1.73
Betano
1.72
Dafabet
1.72
1xBet
1.70
Superbet
1.70
Draw✓ Hit
25.7%
Avg Implied 22.5% · @ 4.12
Edge
+3.1%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
4.44
Dafabet
4.30
Marathonbet
4.20
1xBet
4.20
Betfair
4.20
Jong PSV U21 win✗ Miss
33.1%
Avg Implied 22.8% · @ 4.07
Edge
+10.3%
Best 5 market prices
Bet365
4.33
Dafabet
4.30
Superbet
4.15
Pinnacle
4.14
Betfair
4.10
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Waalwijk
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.1
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.00
1.47
1.92
1.31
2.06
1.59
vs Stronger (5)
1.80
2.60
3.00
1.00
1.00
3.67
vs Similar (25)
2.04
1.24
1.73
1.36
2.29
1.14
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
17% (-6pp vs league)
This opponent (Jong PSV U21) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Jong PSV U21
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.60
1.80
1.69
1.44
1.50
2.21
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (11)
1.45
1.64
1.57
1.86
1.25
1.25
vs Weaker (19)
1.68
1.89
1.78
1.11
1.60
2.60
Clean sheet %
20% (-3pp vs league)
This opponent (Waalwijk) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.1 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
83.3%
@ 1.10-1.1%
Under 1.5
16.7%
@ 5.92+1.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.13
10Bet
1.13
Pinnacle
1.12
Unibet
1.11
Bet365
1.11
Under
BetVictor
6.50
Betfair
6.50
Bet365
6.50
Pinnacle
6.17
Marathonbet
5.80
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
60.9%
@ 1.40-5.3%
Under 2.5
39.1%
@ 2.75+5.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.44
10Bet
1.42
Betano
1.42
Superbet
1.41
Unibet
1.41
Under
Pinnacle
2.91
Betfair
2.88
10Bet
2.80
BetVictor
2.80
Betano
2.72
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
38.6%
@ 2.03-7.5%
Under 3.5
61.4%
@ 1.74+7.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
SBO
2.12
Betfair
2.10
Betano
2.05
10Bet
2.05
Unibet
2.04
Under
Pinnacle
1.79
Marathonbet
1.76
1xBet
1.75
10Bet
1.75
Betano
1.75
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
63.7%
@ 1.42-1.2%
No
36.3%
@ 2.64+1.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Betano
1.44
Bet365
1.44
Betfair
1.44
Unibet
1.44
Superbet
1.43
No
William Hil
2.70
Betfair
2.70
BetVictor
2.70
1xBet
2.66
Marathonbet
2.64
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.7%@ 8.23+6.2%
2-1
8.8%@ 7.81+3.1%
1-2
7.8%@ 12.73+4.3%
2-2 ✓
6.5%@ 10.96+2.4%
1-0
6.1%@ 10.69+1.9%
2-0
6.0%@ 10.54+1.7%
0-0
5.4%@ 18.39+2.9%
0-1
5.3%@ 17.06+2.6%
Waalwijk goals ↓
Jong PSV U21 goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
5.4%
5.3%
4.7%
2.3%
0.9%
1
6.1%
12%
7.8%
3.9%
1.4%
2
6.0%
8.8%
6.5%
3.2%
1.2%
3
3.3%
4.9%
3.6%
1.8%
0.7%
4
1.4%
2.1%
1.5%
0.7%
0.3%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Waalwijk goals (down), columns = Jong PSV U21 goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
De Graafschap
1.60
Almere City FC
1.55
Heracles
1.53
NAC Breda
1.50
FC Volendam
1.50
Jong PSV U21
1.47
Vitesse
1.47
Waalwijk
1.45
Roda
1.43
Den Bosch
1.27
Dordrecht
1.24
FC Eindhoven
1.24
Jong Utrecht
1.21
Emmen
1.18
VVV Venlo
1.18
FC OSS
1.16
Jong AZ
1.05
Helmond Sport
1.03
MVV
1.00
Jong Ajax
0.92
Waalwijk is 0.02 points worse than Jong PSV U21 in terms of average points per game (1.45 vs 1.47).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Almere City FC
2.02
De Graafschap
1.93
Waalwijk
1.76
Heracles
1.74
Jong PSV U21
1.74
NAC Breda
1.71
Vitesse
1.68
Den Bosch
1.68
Jong AZ
1.61
Emmen
1.53
Jong Utrecht
1.53
Roda
1.52
FC Volendam
1.50
FC OSS
1.42
FC Eindhoven
1.34
VVV Venlo
1.32
Jong Ajax
1.32
Dordrecht
1.26
Helmond Sport
1.11
MVV
1.08
Waalwijk is 0.03 goals better than Jong PSV U21 in terms of goals scored per game (1.76 vs 1.74).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Roda
1.40
Heracles
1.44
Vitesse
1.45
NAC Breda
1.47
Dordrecht
1.47
FC Volendam
1.50
Waalwijk
1.50
VVV Venlo
1.53
De Graafschap
1.57
Almere City FC
1.61
Jong Utrecht
1.63
Helmond Sport
1.63
Jong PSV U21
1.68
FC OSS
1.68
FC Eindhoven
1.82
Den Bosch
1.88
Emmen
1.89
MVV
1.92
Jong Ajax
1.92
Jong AZ
2.00
Waalwijk is 0.18 goals better than Jong PSV U21 in terms of goals conceded per game (1.50 vs 1.68).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
De Graafschap
56%
Jong AZ
54%
Roda
52%
Emmen
52%
Jong PSV U21
52%
Jong Ajax
52%
Waalwijk
50%
VVV Venlo
49%
Helmond Sport
49%
Dordrecht
48%
Almere City FC
48%
Jong Utrecht
48%
Den Bosch
47%
Vitesse
46%
FC Eindhoven
44%
MVV
44%
FC OSS
43%
Waalwijk is 1.2 percentage points worse than Jong PSV U21 in terms of average possession (50% vs 52%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Waalwijk
For 3.4 · Against 4.9 · Total 8.3
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.6 · Against 2.8 · Total 4.4
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.3 · Against 13.6 · Total 23.9
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Jong PSV U21
For 7.3 · Against 3.2 · Total 10.5
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.0 · Against 1.3 · Total 2.3
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.3 · Against 9.8 · Total 20.1
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Waalwijk
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.1
10.6
9.7
2.8
2.5
3.0
22.7
21.5
23.9
vs Stronger (9)
10.4
11.8
9.4
1.9
1.5
2.2
20.8
19.8
21.6
vs Similar (41)
10.1
10.3
9.8
3.0
2.7
3.2
23.2
21.8
24.5
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
50%
55%
46%
38%
25%
50%
50%
41%
58%
% under line
50%
45%
54%
62%
75%
50%
50%
59%
42%
This opponent (Jong PSV U21) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Jong PSV U21
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.7
10.0
11.4
3.1
2.8
3.5
23.9
22.8
24.9
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (20)
11.1
10.1
11.8
3.5
3.2
3.8
24.5
23.1
25.4
vs Weaker (30)
10.5
10.0
11.2
2.9
2.5
3.3
23.5
22.7
24.5
% over line
62%
56%
68%
38%
24%
52%
62%
60%
64%
% under line
38%
44%
32%
62%
76%
48%
38%
40%
36%
This opponent (Waalwijk) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Den Bosch
12.1
FC OSS
11.9
De Graafschap
11.7
Dordrecht
11.6
VVV Venlo
11.2
Almere City FC
11.0
Jong PSV U21
10.7
Heracles
10.7
Helmond Sport
10.6
Jong AZ
10.5
Jong Ajax
10.5
FC Volendam
10.4
FC Eindhoven
10.4
Emmen
10.3
MVV
10.3
Waalwijk
10.0
Roda
10.0
NAC Breda
9.8
Vitesse
9.7
Jong Utrecht
9.5
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Vitesse
4.5
Dordrecht
4.3
FC OSS
4.1
Jong Ajax
3.9
NAC Breda
3.9
Emmen
3.8
Den Bosch
3.7
VVV Venlo
3.5
Heracles
3.5
FC Volendam
3.4
Jong AZ
3.4
Helmond Sport
3.3
Roda
3.3
Waalwijk
3.3
De Graafschap
3.3
MVV
3.2
Jong PSV U21
3.2
FC Eindhoven
3.1
Almere City FC
3.0
Jong Utrecht
3.0
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
FC OSS
29.0
Vitesse
26.9
Emmen
25.9
Dordrecht
25.8
Jong Utrecht
25.6
Helmond Sport
25.6
Jong Ajax
25.1
Roda
24.8
Heracles
24.1
Jong PSV U21
23.9
VVV Venlo
23.8
Jong AZ
23.6
Den Bosch
23.2
NAC Breda
23.2
De Graafschap
22.8
MVV
22.7
FC Eindhoven
22.6
Waalwijk
22.5
FC Volendam
22.3
Almere City FC
20.7
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
62.6%
@ 1.57+4.1%
Under 9.5
37.4%
@ 2.21-4.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.65
Betano
1.60
Unibet
1.58
Pinnacle
1.57
1xBet
1.52
Under
Pinnacle
2.29
Marathonbet
2.27
Betano
2.25
1xBet
2.20
Unibet
2.17
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
43.7%
Under 3.5
56.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Under
Over 21.5
59.3%
Under 21.5
40.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Waalwijk or Draw✓ Hit
65.5%
Avg Implied 77.0% · @ 1.21
Edge
-11.5%
41%
26%
33%
covers Waalwijk + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.25
William Hil
1.25
BetVictor
1.22
10Bet
1.22
Betfair
1.20
Waalwijk or Jong PSV U21✗ Miss
76.6%
Avg Implied 77.8% · @ 1.20
Edge
-1.2%
41%
26%
33%
covers Waalwijk + Jong PSV U21
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.23
Bet365
1.22
William Hil
1.22
Superbet
1.21
Betfair
1.20
Draw or Jong PSV U21✓ Hit
57.9%
Avg Implied 45.2% · @ 2.06
Edge
+12.6%
41%
26%
33%
covers Draw + Jong PSV U21
Best 5 market prices
Betano
2.15
Bet365
2.10
Betfair
2.10
Marathonbet
2.07
1xBet
2.07
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Waalwijk over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
85.3%
@ 1.08-1.1%
Under
14.7%
@ 6.84+1.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.10
10Bet
1.08
Superbet
1.08
Betfair
1.08
Bet365
1.08
Under
Bet365
8.00
1xBet
7.20
BetVictor
7.00
Superbet
6.60
Betfair
6.50
Waalwijk over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
57.2%
@ 1.48-5.6%
Under
42.8%
@ 2.50+5.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.50
10Bet
1.50
Bet365
1.50
Betano
1.50
Superbet
1.48
Under
Betfair
2.63
Pinnacle
2.60
Marathonbet
2.53
BetVictor
2.50
Bet365
2.50
Waalwijk over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
30.2%
@ 2.52-6.7%
Under
69.8%
@ 1.47+6.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
2.63
Pinnacle
2.58
1xBet
2.55
10Bet
2.55
Bet365
2.50
Under
Pinnacle
1.51
Betano
1.50
Bet365
1.50
Marathonbet
1.49
Superbet
1.49
Waalwijk over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
12.9%
@ 4.76-6.6%
Under
87.1%
@ 1.15+6.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
5.00
Betfair
5.00
Bet365
5.00
Unibet
4.80
10Bet
4.75
Under
Bet365
1.17
Betano
1.17
Superbet
1.16
1xBet
1.16
10Bet
1.15
Jong PSV U21 over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
82.3%
@ 1.28+10.1%
Under
17.7%
@ 3.33-10.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.30
1xBet
1.30
BetVictor
1.29
Betfair
1.29
Superbet
1.29
Under
Pinnacle
3.56
Bet365
3.50
BetVictor
3.40
Betano
3.35
Marathonbet
3.34
Jong PSV U21 over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
51.6%
@ 2.39+12.8%
Under
48.4%
@ 1.52-12.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
2.50
Pinnacle
2.43
1xBet
2.38
10Bet
2.38
Marathonbet
2.38
Under
Pinnacle
1.56
Betano
1.55
Bet365
1.53
BetVictor
1.53
10Bet
1.53
Jong PSV U21 over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
25.1%
@ 5.44+8.1%
Under
74.9%
@ 1.11-8.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
6.00
BetVictor
5.50
Betfair
5.50
10Bet
5.50
Superbet
5.45
Under
Betano
1.14
Betfair
1.13
Bet365
1.12
Superbet
1.12
BetVictor
1.11
Jong PSV U21 over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
9.8%
@ 13.33+2.6%
Under
90.2%
@ 1.02-2.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
17.00
Superbet
13.00
Betano
10.00
Under
Betano
1.03
Superbet
1.02
Bet365
1.02
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Waalwijk, so a minus line means Waalwijk give that many goals of a start and Jong PSV U21 receive them. At -1, Waalwijk must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Waalwijk win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Waalwijk)Actual: Jong PSV U21
Waalwijk -2
10.8%
@ 4.94-7.4%
Draw -2
12.9%
@ 4.89-5.5%
Jong PSV U21 +2
76.4%
@ 1.41+12.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
5.50
Bet365
5.00
10Bet
5.00
Marathonbet
4.75
Unibet
4.75
Draw
Marathonbet
5.10
Bet365
5.00
Betfair
5.00
Superbet
4.80
10Bet
4.75
Away
Superbet
1.44
Bet365
1.44
Betfair
1.40
Unibet
1.40
10Bet
1.40
Handicap -1 (Waalwijk)Actual: Jong PSV U21
Waalwijk -1
23.6%
@ 2.65-10.0%
Draw -1
18.5%
@ 3.86-4.6%
Jong PSV U21 +1
57.9%
@ 2.06+14.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
10Bet
2.75
Betfair
2.70
Unibet
2.63
Bet365
2.62
Marathonbet
2.61
Draw
Bet365
4.33
Superbet
3.85
Marathonbet
3.84
Betfair
3.75
10Bet
3.75
Away
Superbet
2.10
Bet365
2.10
Marathonbet
2.07
Unibet
2.06
10Bet
2.05
Handicap +1 (Waalwijk)Actual: Waalwijk
Waalwijk +1
65.5%
@ 1.21-9.0%
Draw +1
16.6%
@ 6.18+2.1%
Jong PSV U21 -1
17.9%
@ 8.20+6.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
10Bet
1.22
Superbet
1.22
Marathonbet
1.20
Bet365
1.20
Betfair
1.20
Draw
Bet365
7.00
Betfair
6.50
Marathonbet
6.10
Superbet
6.00
Unibet
5.75
Away
Bet365
9.00
Betfair
9.00
Marathonbet
8.00
10Bet
8.00
Superbet
7.70
Handicap +2 (Waalwijk)Actual: Waalwijk
Waalwijk +2
82.1%
@ 1.05-6.5%
Draw +2
10.4%
@ 13.00+3.3%
Jong PSV U21 -2
7.4%
@ 22.00+3.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.06
Betfair
1.05
Draw
Bet365
13.00
Betfair
13.00
Away
Betfair
23.00
Bet365
21.00
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Waalwijk
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.7
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
0.50
0.77
0.38
0.94
0.59
vs Stronger (5)
0.60
0.80
1.50
0.50
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (25)
0.92
0.44
0.64
0.36
1.14
0.50
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
53% (+30pp vs league)
This opponent (Jong PSV U21) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Jong PSV U21
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.93
0.67
0.88
0.31
1.00
1.07
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (11)
0.82
0.55
0.86
0.43
0.75
0.75
vs Weaker (19)
1.00
0.74
0.89
0.22
1.10
1.20
Clean sheet %
50% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Waalwijk) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
75.4%
@ 1.21-1.2%
Under 0.5
24.6%
@ 3.95+1.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.26
Bet365
1.22
Superbet
1.21
10Bet
1.20
BetVictor
1.20
Under
BetVictor
4.10
William Hil
4.00
10Bet
4.00
Bet365
4.00
Betfair
4.00
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
40.6%
@ 2.03-5.2%
Under 1.5
59.4%
@ 1.72+5.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.12
SBO
2.11
Betfair
2.10
Pinnacle
2.08
1xBet
2.05
Under
10Bet
1.77
Pinnacle
1.76
SBO
1.74
Superbet
1.74
Bet365
1.73
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
15.1%
@ 4.27-6.7%
Under 2.5
84.9%
@ 1.18+6.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
4.50
BetVictor
4.40
Bet365
4.33
Betano
4.25
1xBet
4.25
Under
Superbet
1.20
Bet365
1.20
Betano
1.20
William Hil
1.20
BetVictor
1.18
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Waalwijk over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
60.6%
@ 1.51-0.7%
Under
39.4%
@ 2.40+0.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.57
Pinnacle
1.52
1xBet
1.51
Superbet
1.51
Unibet
1.50
Under
Pinnacle
2.52
10Bet
2.45
Superbet
2.40
1xBet
2.40
Unibet
2.33
Waalwijk over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
21.9%
@ 3.45-4.9%
Under
78.1%
@ 1.27+4.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
3.55
Betano
3.55
Superbet
3.40
1xBet
3.40
10Bet
3.35
Under
10Bet
1.28
Betano
1.27
Superbet
1.27
1xBet
1.26
Marathonbet
1.25
Waalwijk over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
6.6%
@ 8.69-4.0%
Under
93.4%
@ 1.04+4.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
9.30
Superbet
8.70
10Bet
8.50
Betano
8.25
Under
Betano
1.05
10Bet
1.04
Superbet
1.04
1xBet
1.02
Jong PSV U21 over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
37.9%
@ 2.08-6.7%
Under
62.1%
@ 1.68+6.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.15
Betano
2.12
Superbet
2.10
Marathonbet
2.05
10Bet
2.05
Under
1xBet
1.70
10Bet
1.70
Pinnacle
1.69
Betano
1.67
Marathonbet
1.67
Jong PSV U21 over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
8.6%
@ 6.47-5.7%
Under
91.4%
@ 1.08+5.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
6.90
Superbet
6.60
1xBet
6.30
Betano
6.30
10Bet
6.25
Under
Betano
1.10
10Bet
1.08
Superbet
1.08
Marathonbet
1.07
1xBet
1.07
Jong PSV U21 over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
1.8%
@ 19.17-3.2%
Under
98.2%
@ 1.01+3.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
23.00
Superbet
22.00
Betano
12.50
Under
10Bet
1.01
Betano
1.01
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Waalwijk
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.13
0.97
1.15
0.92
1.12
1.00
vs Stronger (5)
1.20
1.80
1.50
0.50
1.00
2.67
vs Similar (25)
1.12
0.80
1.09
1.00
1.14
0.64
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
37% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Jong PSV U21) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Jong PSV U21
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
1.13
0.81
1.12
0.50
1.14
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (11)
0.64
1.09
0.71
1.43
0.50
0.50
vs Weaker (19)
0.68
1.16
0.89
0.89
0.50
1.40
Clean sheet %
37% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Waalwijk) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
83.0%
@ 1.11-0.4%
Under 0.5
17.0%
@ 5.60+0.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
1.14
Betano
1.13
Bet365
1.12
Superbet
1.11
1xBet
1.10
Under
Bet365
6.00
1xBet
5.80
Betano
5.70
Marathonbet
5.60
Superbet
5.50
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
49.2%
@ 1.61-8.3%
Under 1.5
50.8%
@ 2.18+8.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
1.67
Bet365
1.62
Unibet
1.61
Superbet
1.61
1xBet
1.60
Under
Betano
2.30
Bet365
2.20
Superbet
2.20
Marathonbet
2.19
1xBet
2.17
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
24.4%
@ 2.89-7.8%
Under 2.5
75.6%
@ 1.37+7.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
3.00
Bet365
3.00
1xBet
2.85
Superbet
2.85
Marathonbet
2.84
Under
Betano
1.42
Superbet
1.37
Bet365
1.36
Marathonbet
1.36
1xBet
1.36
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Waalwijk over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
67.4%
@ 1.35-1.1%
Under
32.6%
@ 2.95+1.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
1.36
Superbet
1.36
Betano
1.35
1xBet
1.34
Under
Betano
3.00
1xBet
3.00
Superbet
2.92
10Bet
2.88
Waalwijk over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
32.1%
@ 2.63-3.2%
Under
67.9%
@ 1.43+3.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
2.75
Superbet
2.67
Marathonbet
2.62
1xBet
2.55
Betano
2.55
Under
Betano
1.47
1xBet
1.45
Marathonbet
1.43
Superbet
1.42
10Bet
1.40
Waalwijk over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
7.9%
@ 6.15-7.2%
Under
92.1%
@ 1.09+7.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
6.50
Superbet
6.30
1xBet
6.20
Betano
5.60
Under
Betano
1.12
Superbet
1.09
1xBet
1.08
10Bet
1.08
Jong PSV U21 over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
44.3%
@ 1.75-8.5%
Under
55.7%
@ 1.96+8.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.78
Betano
1.75
Marathonbet
1.75
10Bet
1.75
1xBet
1.74
Under
Betano
2.02
1xBet
1.98
10Bet
1.95
Marathonbet
1.94
Superbet
1.92
Jong PSV U21 over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
12.3%
@ 4.67-7.5%
Under
87.7%
@ 1.15+7.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
4.90
10Bet
4.75
Superbet
4.70
1xBet
4.60
Betano
4.40
Under
Betano
1.19
10Bet
1.15
Superbet
1.15
1xBet
1.14
Marathonbet
1.14
Jong PSV U21 over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
2.9%
@ 12.67-4.5%
Under
97.1%
@ 1.02+4.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
15.00
10Bet
13.00
Betano
10.00
Under
Betano
1.03
10Bet
1.02
Superbet
1.01
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Away under 2.5 HT goals
98.2%
1.01
10Bet
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
+3.2%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 2H goals
97.1%
1.02
Betano
1.03
10Bet
1.02
Superbet
1.01
-
-
+4.5%
✓ Hit
Under 7.5
96.7%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
1xBet
1.01
-
-
-
+0.9%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 HT goals
93.4%
1.04
Betano
1.05
10Bet
1.04
Superbet
1.04
1xBet
1.02
-
+4.0%
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
92.2%
1.04
Betano
1.05
1xBet
1.04
Bet365
1.04
Betfair
1.03
Superbet
1.03
+0.7%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 2H goals
92.1%
1.09
Betano
1.12
Superbet
1.09
1xBet
1.08
10Bet
1.08
-
+7.2%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 HT goals
91.4%
1.08
Betano
1.10
10Bet
1.08
Superbet
1.08
Marathonbet
1.07
1xBet
1.07
+5.7%
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
90.2%
1.02
Betano
1.03
Superbet
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-2.6%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 2H goals
87.7%
1.15
Betano
1.19
10Bet
1.15
Superbet
1.15
1xBet
1.14
Marathonbet
1.14
+7.5%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards
87.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
87.1%
1.15
Bet365
1.17
Betano
1.17
Superbet
1.16
1xBet
1.16
10Bet
1.15
+6.6%
✓ Hit
Home over 0.5 goals
85.3%
1.08
Betano
1.10
10Bet
1.08
Superbet
1.08
Betfair
1.08
Bet365
1.08
-1.1%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 HT goals
84.9%
1.18
Superbet
1.20
Bet365
1.20
Betano
1.20
William Hil
1.20
BetVictor
1.18
+6.7%
✗ Miss
Under 5.5
83.7%
1.11
Betano
1.14
Pinnacle
1.13
Bet365
1.12
Superbet
1.12
10Bet
1.11
-0.4%
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
83.3%
1.10
Betano
1.13
10Bet
1.13
Pinnacle
1.12
Unibet
1.11
Bet365
1.11
-1.1%
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 2H goals
83.0%
1.11
William Hil
1.14
Betano
1.13
Bet365
1.12
Superbet
1.11
1xBet
1.10
-0.4%
✓ Hit
Away over 0.5 goals
82.3%
1.28
Betano
1.30
1xBet
1.30
BetVictor
1.29
Betfair
1.29
Superbet
1.29
+10.1%
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
82.1%
1.05
Bet365
1.06
Betfair
1.05
-
-
-
-6.5%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 HT goals
78.1%
1.27
10Bet
1.28
Betano
1.27
Superbet
1.27
1xBet
1.26
Marathonbet
1.25
+4.9%
✗ Miss
Home or Away
76.6%
1.20
Betano
1.23
Bet365
1.22
William Hil
1.22
Superbet
1.21
Betfair
1.20
-1.2%
✗ Miss
Away +2 handicap
76.4%
1.41
Superbet
1.44
Bet365
1.44
Betfair
1.40
Unibet
1.40
10Bet
1.40
+12.9%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 2H goals
75.6%
1.37
Betano
1.42
Superbet
1.37
Bet365
1.36
Marathonbet
1.36
1xBet
1.36
+7.8%
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 HT goals
75.4%
1.21
Betano
1.26
Bet365
1.22
Superbet
1.21
10Bet
1.20
BetVictor
1.20
-1.2%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
74.9%
1.11
Betano
1.14
Betfair
1.13
Bet365
1.12
Superbet
1.12
BetVictor
1.11
-8.1%
✓ Hit
Under 4.5 cards
74.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
74.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 8.5 corners
74.0%
1.34
Superbet
1.41
Unibet
1.36
Betano
1.36
1xBet
1.29
Marathonbet
1.28
+5.8%
✗ Miss
Under 25.5 fouls
72.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Waalwijk
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Keyan Varela67%
Finn Stokkers33%
Haye Van Gemert33%
Yorem van der Veen25%
Jordy de Wijs0%
Liam Van Gelderen0%
Azzedine Dkidak0%
Juan Familia-Castillo0%
Thijs van Leeuwen0%
Ryan Fage0%
Niek Schiks0%
Loek Postma0%
Rein van Hedel0%
Faissal Al Mazyani0%
Jesse van de Haar0%
Jochem Nap0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Jordy de Wijs50%
Loek Postma33%
Azzedine Dkidak25%
Jochem Nap25%
Finn Stokkers0%
Liam Van Gelderen0%
Juan Familia-Castillo0%
Thijs van Leeuwen0%
Ryan Fage0%
Niek Schiks0%
Rein van Hedel0%
Faissal Al Mazyani0%
Jesse van de Haar0%
Yorem van der Veen0%
Keyan Varela0%
Haye Van Gemert0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Faissal Al Mazyani25%
Jesse van de Haar25%
Jochem Nap25%
Jordy de Wijs0%
Finn Stokkers0%
Liam Van Gelderen0%
Azzedine Dkidak0%
Juan Familia-Castillo0%
Thijs van Leeuwen0%
Ryan Fage0%
Niek Schiks0%
Loek Postma0%
Rein van Hedel0%
Yorem van der Veen0%
Keyan Varela0%
Haye Van Gemert0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Finn Stokkers33%
Keyan Varela33%
Juan Familia-Castillo25%
Thijs van Leeuwen25%
Ryan Fage25%
Faissal Al Mazyani25%
Jochem Nap25%
Jordy de Wijs0%
Liam Van Gelderen0%
Azzedine Dkidak0%
Niek Schiks0%
Loek Postma0%
Rein van Hedel0%
Jesse van de Haar0%
Yorem van der Veen0%
Haye Van Gemert0%
Jong PSV U21
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Joel Van Den Berg67%
Austyn Jones50%
Fabio Kluit40%
Souleymane Sidibe20%
Shuryjano Cornecion20%
Madi Monamay0%
Essien Bassey0%
Jordy Bawuah0%
Boet Mulders0%
Manuel Bahaty0%
Michael Bresser0%
Jim Koller0%
Gino Verhulst0%
Fabian Merién0%
Khadim Ngom0%
Samuel Dumbili0%
Kyano Penso0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Joel Van Den Berg33%
Michael Bresser33%
Manuel Bahaty25%
Austyn Jones25%
Madi Monamay0%
Souleymane Sidibe0%
Essien Bassey0%
Jordy Bawuah0%
Fabio Kluit0%
Boet Mulders0%
Jim Koller0%
Gino Verhulst0%
Fabian Merién0%
Khadim Ngom0%
Shuryjano Cornecion0%
Samuel Dumbili0%
Kyano Penso0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Jim Koller40%
Michael Bresser33%
Fabio Kluit20%
Shuryjano Cornecion20%
Madi Monamay0%
Souleymane Sidibe0%
Essien Bassey0%
Joel Van Den Berg0%
Jordy Bawuah0%
Boet Mulders0%
Manuel Bahaty0%
Gino Verhulst0%
Fabian Merién0%
Khadim Ngom0%
Austyn Jones0%
Samuel Dumbili0%
Kyano Penso0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Austyn Jones75%
Fabio Kluit40%
Shuryjano Cornecion40%
Joel Van Den Berg33%
Jordy Bawuah33%
Samuel Dumbili25%
Madi Monamay0%
Souleymane Sidibe0%
Essien Bassey0%
Boet Mulders0%
Manuel Bahaty0%
Michael Bresser0%
Jim Koller0%
Gino Verhulst0%
Fabian Merién0%
Khadim Ngom0%
Kyano Penso0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
JA (24)
€19m
NB (23)
€10m
ACF (27)
€10m
HER (28)
€8m
ROD (17)
€8m
WAA (22)
€8m
VIT (23)
€7m
JPU (14)
€7m
FV (20)
€6m
DG (21)
€6m
DOR (21)
€6m
DB (17)
€5m
JA (19)
€5m
EMM (21)
€5m
MVV (21)
€4m
HS (16)
€4m
VV (19)
€4m
FO (17)
€4m
FE (16)
€3m
JU (8)
€2m
Waalwijk and Jong PSV U21 have a similar squad value (both €8m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ACF (10)
€5m
JA (7)
€4m
ROD (7)
€4m
VIT (9)
€4m
NB (10)
€4m
HER (13)
€4m
WAA (8)
€3m
DB (7)
€3m
DOR (8)
€2m
JA (7)
€2m
FV (6)
€2m
DG (8)
€2m
FE (8)
€2m
HS (5)
€2m
MVV (8)
€1m
VV (6)
€1m
EMM (6)
€1m
JPU (4)
€1m
FO (5)
€1m
JU (3)
€1m
Waalwijk's attack is €2m more valuable than Jong PSV U21's (€3m vs €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
JA (6)
€3m
JPU (3)
€3m
EMM (7)
€2m
NB (3)
€2m
ACF (5)
€2m
DOR (5)
€2m
DG (5)
€2m
ROD (4)
€2m
HER (4)
€1m
MVV (4)
€1m
FV (3)
€1m
JA (4)
€1m
DB (3)
€1m
HS (5)
€1m
FO (3)
€1m
WAA (3)
€1m
JU (2)
€1m
VIT (3)
€1m
FE (2)
€0m
VV (3)
€0m
Waalwijk's midfield is €2m less valuable than Jong PSV U21's (€1m vs €3m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
JA (11)
€12m
NB (10)
€4m
WAA (11)
€3m
HER (11)
€3m
FV (11)
€3m
ACF (12)
€3m
JPU (7)
€3m
DG (8)
€2m
VIT (11)
€2m
VV (10)
€2m
ROD (6)
€2m
FO (9)
€2m
JA (8)
€2m
DOR (8)
€2m
HS (6)
€2m
MVV (9)
€2m
EMM (8)
€1m
DB (7)
€1m
FE (6)
€1m
JU (3)
€1m
Waalwijk and Jong PSV U21 have a similar defence value (both €3m).
Netherlands: Eerste Divisie 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Netherlands: Eerste Divisie stats & trends →
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Heracles
MVV
Almere City FC
VVV Venlo
Emmen
Vitesse
Roda
NAC Breda
FC Volendam
Jong AZ
Den Bosch
Jong Ajax
Dordrecht
FC OSS
FC Eindhoven
Helmond Sport
De Graafschap
Jong Utrecht