This opponent (Shamrock Rovers) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Shamrock Rovers
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.80
0.73
2.00
0.50
1.57
1.00
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (18)
1.50
0.72
1.56
0.56
1.44
0.89
vs Weaker (12)
2.25
0.75
2.57
0.43
1.80
1.20
Clean sheet %
47% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Waterford) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
74.7%
Under 1.5
25.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
48.6%
Under 2.5
51.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
26.7%
Under 3.5
73.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
51.2%
No
48.8%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.8%
0-1
10.9%
0-2
10.0%
1-2 ✓
9.6%
0-0
8.5%
1-0
5.9%
2-1
5.6%
0-3
5.5%
Waterford goals ↓
Shamrock Rovers goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
8.5%
11%
10.0%
5.5%
2.3%
1
5.9%
13%
9.6%
5.3%
2.2%
2
3.4%
5.6%
4.6%
2.6%
1.1%
3
1.1%
1.8%
1.5%
0.8%
0.3%
4
0.3%
0.4%
0.4%
0.2%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Waterford goals (down), columns = Shamrock Rovers goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Shamrock Rovers
1.83
Derry City
1.75
Shelbourne
1.64
Bohemians
1.50
St Patrick's Athl.
1.44
Drogheda United
1.42
Sligo Rovers
1.14
Waterford
1.14
Galway United
1.08
Cork City
0.67
Bray Wanderers
0.00
Waterford is 0.70 points worse than Shamrock Rovers in terms of average points per game (1.14 vs 1.83).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Shamrock Rovers
1.56
Derry City
1.44
Shelbourne
1.33
Bohemians
1.33
Sligo Rovers
1.17
St Patrick's Athl.
1.17
Waterford
1.16
Drogheda United
1.06
Galway United
1.03
Bray Wanderers
1.00
Cork City
0.92
Waterford is 0.39 goals worse than Shamrock Rovers in terms of goals scored per game (1.16 vs 1.56).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
St Patrick's Athl.
0.89
Shamrock Rovers
0.92
Shelbourne
1.03
Drogheda United
1.06
Bohemians
1.08
Derry City
1.08
Galway United
1.22
Sligo Rovers
1.50
Waterford
1.65
Cork City
1.69
Bray Wanderers
2.00
Waterford is 0.73 goals worse than Shamrock Rovers in terms of goals conceded per game (1.65 vs 0.92).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Shamrock Rovers
60%
Shelbourne
57%
Bohemians
56%
St Patrick's Athl.
54%
Derry City
54%
Sligo Rovers
49%
Waterford
47%
Cork City
46%
Galway United
41%
Drogheda United
36%
Waterford is 13.4 percentage points worse than Shamrock Rovers in terms of average possession (47% vs 60%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Waterford
For 4.3 · Against 5.9 · Total 10.2
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.3 · Against 2.4 · Total 4.7
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.6 · Against 10.9 · Total 22.5
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Shamrock Rovers
For 5.1 · Against 2.6 · Total 7.7
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.9 · Against 3.0 · Total 5.9
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.1 · Against 12.7 · Total 23.8
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Waterford
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.3
10.8
9.9
5.1
5.1
5.0
23.8
23.8
23.8
vs Stronger (5)
8.5
9.5
7.5
3.6
4.0
3.3
19.5
20.0
19.0
vs Similar (45)
10.5
11.0
10.1
5.2
5.2
5.3
24.2
24.1
24.3
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
51%
52%
50%
76%
72%
80%
77%
78%
75%
% under line
49%
48%
50%
24%
28%
20%
23%
22%
25%
This opponent (Shamrock Rovers) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Shamrock Rovers
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
8.8
8.3
9.3
4.2
4.0
4.4
22.4
21.3
23.5
vs Stronger (4)
10.5
10.0
10.7
5.5
8.0
4.7
21.2
30.0
18.3
vs Similar (29)
8.4
8.0
9.0
4.2
4.3
4.1
22.9
21.5
24.6
vs Weaker (17)
9.0
8.7
9.2
3.9
2.9
4.8
22.1
19.3
24.1
% over line
39%
30%
48%
64%
60%
68%
54%
35%
71%
% under line
61%
70%
52%
36%
40%
32%
46%
65%
29%
This opponent (Waterford) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Bohemians
10.8
Sligo Rovers
10.5
Cork City
10.5
Waterford
10.4
St Patrick's Athl.
9.9
Drogheda United
9.9
Galway United
9.7
Shamrock Rovers
9.0
Shelbourne
8.8
Derry City
8.6
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Derry City
5.8
Bohemians
5.7
Shelbourne
5.5
Waterford
5.4
Shamrock Rovers
5.3
St Patrick's Athl.
5.2
Galway United
5.2
Sligo Rovers
5.2
Cork City
5.0
Drogheda United
4.7
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Cork City
24.7
Derry City
24.3
Galway United
24.1
Waterford
23.8
Bohemians
23.6
Sligo Rovers
23.1
St Patrick's Athl.
22.5
Shamrock Rovers
22.4
Shelbourne
22.1
Drogheda United
21.8
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
56.8%
Under 9.5
43.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
79.5%
Under 3.5
20.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
59.1%
Under 21.5
40.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Waterford
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.73
0.79
0.79
0.56
0.69
vs Stronger (3)
0.33
0.67
1.00
1.00
0.00
0.50
vs Similar (27)
0.70
0.74
0.77
0.77
0.64
0.71
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Shamrock Rovers) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Shamrock Rovers
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.5
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.30
0.94
0.00
0.57
0.64
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (18)
0.56
0.28
0.67
0.00
0.44
0.56
vs Weaker (12)
1.08
0.33
1.29
0.00
0.80
0.80
Clean sheet %
77% (+48pp vs league)
This opponent (Waterford) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Waterford over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Waterford over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Waterford over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Shamrock Rovers over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Shamrock Rovers over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Shamrock Rovers over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Waterford
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
1.00
0.36
0.93
0.56
1.06
vs Stronger (3)
0.00
1.33
0.00
2.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (27)
0.52
0.96
0.38
0.85
0.64
1.07
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
30% (+1pp vs league)
This opponent (Shamrock Rovers) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Shamrock Rovers
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.03
0.43
1.06
0.50
1.00
0.36
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (18)
0.94
0.44
0.89
0.56
1.00
0.33
vs Weaker (12)
1.17
0.42
1.29
0.43
1.00
0.40
Clean sheet %
67% (+38pp vs league)
This opponent (Waterford) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Waterford over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Waterford over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Waterford over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Shamrock Rovers over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Shamrock Rovers over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Shamrock Rovers over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 2.5 cards
91.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 3.5 cards
79.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
74.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
74.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
73.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 25.5 fouls
72.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Waterford
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Pádraig Amond32%
Tom Lonergan28%
Conan Noonan19%
Darragh Leahy12%
Jesse Dempsey6%
Rowan McDonald5%
Kacper Radkowski4%
Kyle White4%
Grant Horton3%
James Olayinka3%
Samuel Glenfield3%
Ryan Burke3%
Jordan Rossiter0%
Maarten Pouwels0%
Navajo Bakboord0%
Andy Boyle0%
Matthew Smith0%
Trae Coyle0%
Muhammadu Faal0%
Dean McMenamy0%
Ben McCormack0%
Stephen McMullan0%
Josh Miles0%
Ronan Mansfield0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Josh Miles60%
Jordan Rossiter38%
Grant Horton33%
Dean McMenamy31%
Kacper Radkowski30%
Samuel Glenfield30%
Maarten Pouwels27%
Andy Boyle27%
Matthew Smith25%
Jesse Dempsey25%
Navajo Bakboord20%
Ronan Mansfield20%
Darragh Leahy19%
Stephen McMullan18%
James Olayinka17%
Rowan McDonald16%
Ryan Burke16%
Kyle White15%
Conan Noonan10%
Tom Lonergan9%
Ben McCormack9%
Pádraig Amond3%
Trae Coyle0%
Muhammadu Faal0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Conan Noonan23%
Pádraig Amond12%
Rowan McDonald11%
Trae Coyle7%
Ryan Burke6%
Tom Lonergan6%
Jesse Dempsey6%
Dean McMenamy4%
Kyle White4%
Grant Horton3%
Samuel Glenfield3%
Jordan Rossiter0%
Maarten Pouwels0%
Navajo Bakboord0%
Kacper Radkowski0%
Andy Boyle0%
Matthew Smith0%
Darragh Leahy0%
James Olayinka0%
Muhammadu Faal0%
Ben McCormack0%
Stephen McMullan0%
Josh Miles0%
Ronan Mansfield0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Pádraig Amond26%
Tom Lonergan22%
Conan Noonan10%
Jesse Dempsey6%
Kacper Radkowski4%
Dean McMenamy4%
James Olayinka3%
Jordan Rossiter0%
Maarten Pouwels0%
Navajo Bakboord0%
Andy Boyle0%
Matthew Smith0%
Darragh Leahy0%
Ryan Burke0%
Grant Horton0%
Trae Coyle0%
Rowan McDonald0%
Muhammadu Faal0%
Ben McCormack0%
Samuel Glenfield0%
Stephen McMullan0%
Kyle White0%
Josh Miles0%
Ronan Mansfield0%
Shamrock Rovers
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Rory Gaffney27%
Graham Burke25%
Aaron Greene22%
Joshua Honohan16%
Michael Noonan16%
Daniel Mandroiu10%
Daniel Grant10%
Dan Cleary9%
Connor Malley8%
Matthew Healy8%
Aaron McEneff8%
Lee Grace8%
John McGovern6%
Jack Byrne5%
Adam Matthews5%
Dylan Watts3%
Roberto Lopes3%
Sean Kavanagh0%
Trevor Clarke0%
Darragh Nugent0%
Edward McGinty0%
Gary O'Neill0%
John O'Sullivan0%
Cory O'Sullivan0%
Cian Barrett0%
Max Kovaleskis0%
Victor Ozhianvuna0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Dan Cleary31%
Joshua Honohan29%
Gary O'Neill27%
Jack Byrne26%
Daniel Grant23%
Lee Grace23%
Darragh Nugent20%
Cory O'Sullivan20%
Graham Burke19%
Sean Kavanagh17%
John O'Sullivan17%
Matthew Healy16%
Adam Matthews15%
Trevor Clarke14%
Cian Barrett14%
Max Kovaleskis14%
Roberto Lopes11%
Rory Gaffney10%
Dylan Watts9%
Aaron Greene9%
Connor Malley8%
John McGovern6%
Daniel Mandroiu5%
Aaron McEneff4%
Edward McGinty0%
Michael Noonan0%
Victor Ozhianvuna0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Jack Byrne21%
Daniel Mandroiu20%
Trevor Clarke14%
Graham Burke14%
Joshua Honohan13%
Lee Grace12%
Daniel Grant10%
Aaron McEneff8%
Dan Cleary6%
Michael Noonan6%
Dylan Watts6%
Matthew Healy5%
Adam Matthews5%
Aaron Greene4%
Rory Gaffney0%
Connor Malley0%
Sean Kavanagh0%
Roberto Lopes0%
Darragh Nugent0%
Edward McGinty0%
Gary O'Neill0%
John McGovern0%
John O'Sullivan0%
Cory O'Sullivan0%
Cian Barrett0%
Max Kovaleskis0%
Victor Ozhianvuna0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Graham Burke33%
Daniel Mandroiu15%
Rory Gaffney13%
Michael Noonan9%
Joshua Honohan6%
Lee Grace4%
Daniel Grant3%
Dan Cleary3%
Connor Malley0%
Adam Matthews0%
Jack Byrne0%
Sean Kavanagh0%
Roberto Lopes0%
Trevor Clarke0%
Aaron McEneff0%
Darragh Nugent0%
Dylan Watts0%
Aaron Greene0%
Edward McGinty0%
Gary O'Neill0%
John McGovern0%
Matthew Healy0%
John O'Sullivan0%
Cory O'Sullivan0%
Cian Barrett0%
Max Kovaleskis0%
Victor Ozhianvuna0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SR (31)
€7m
SPA (22)
€5m
BOH (23)
€4m
DC (22)
€4m
SHE (22)
€4m
DU (19)
€3m
SR (21)
€3m
GU (21)
€3m
WAT (19)
€2m
CC (2)
€0m
BW (1)
€0m
Waterford's squad is €5m less valuable than Shamrock Rovers's (€2m vs €7m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SR (14)
€3m
SPA (6)
€2m
BOH (9)
€2m
DC (7)
€1m
SHE (8)
€1m
SR (10)
€1m
WAT (6)
€1m
DU (4)
€1m
GU (7)
€1m
CC (2)
€0m
BW (0)
€0m
Waterford's attack is €2m less valuable than Shamrock Rovers's (€1m vs €3m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SR (7)
€2m
SPA (7)
€1m
DC (6)
€1m
BOH (5)
€1m
SHE (4)
€1m
GU (7)
€1m
WAT (5)
€1m
SR (3)
€1m
DU (4)
€0m
BW (1)
€0m
CC (0)
€0m
Waterford's midfield is €1m less valuable than Shamrock Rovers's (€1m vs €2m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SR (10)
€2m
SPA (9)
€2m
DU (11)
€2m
BOH (9)
€2m
DC (9)
€2m
SHE (10)
€2m
SR (8)
€1m
GU (7)
€1m
WAT (8)
€1m
CC (0)
€0m
BW (0)
€0m
Waterford's defence is €1m less valuable than Shamrock Rovers's (€1m vs €2m).
Ireland: Premier Division 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Ireland: Premier Division stats & trends →
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Derry City
Shelbourne
Bohemians
St Patrick's Athl.
Drogheda United
Sligo Rovers
Galway United
Cork City
Bray Wanderers