Wealdstone’s recent return to form, after a 1-3 loss to Harrogate, suggests a sharp attack, while Gateshead, still reeling from a 0-3 defeat to Yeovil, shows defensive frailty. The model projects a 51% chance of a home win, a 24% draw and a 25% away win, with the home side favoured as the most likely outcome. The expected total is 3.4 goals, centring on a 3-goal total that carries a 22% probability. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, with a 10.4% chance. Wealdstone averages 2.08 goals scored and 1.38 conceded at home against similar opposition; Gateshead averages 1.0 scored and 1.8 conceded away. Suggested picks include Under 7.5 (97.8%), Away under 3.5 goals (95.1%), Under 6.5 (94.5%), Home +2 handicap (88.8%), Under 5.5 (87.5%), Home over 0.5 goals (86.5%), Over 1.5 (85.9%) and Home under 3.5 goals (85.6%).
Advertisement
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Wealdstone win
51.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
23.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Gateshead win
24.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Wealdstone
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.1
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.43
1.90
1.93
1.57
1.00
2.19
vs Stronger (4)
0.75
3.75
0.00
4.00
1.00
3.67
vs Similar (26)
1.54
1.62
2.08
1.38
1.00
1.85
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
13% (-13pp vs league)
This opponent (Gateshead) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Gateshead
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.03
1.60
1.20
1.53
0.87
1.67
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
3.00
-
-
0.00
3.00
vs Similar (24)
1.04
1.67
1.15
1.62
0.91
1.73
vs Weaker (5)
1.20
1.00
1.50
1.00
1.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
20% (-6pp vs league)
This opponent (Wealdstone) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
85.2%
Under 1.5
14.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
64.3%
Under 2.5
35.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
42.2%
Under 3.5
57.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
64.4%
No
35.6%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
10.6%
2-1
9.5%
2-0
7.1%
1-2
6.4%
2-2
6.3%
3-1
6.3%
1-0
6.3%
3-0
4.7%
Wealdstone goals ↓
Gateshead goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
4.6%
3.9%
3.2%
1.4%
0.5%
1
6.3%
11%
6.4%
2.8%
0.9%
2
7.1%
9.5%
6.3%
2.8%
0.9%
3
4.7%
6.3%
4.2%
1.9%
0.6%
4
2.3%
3.1%
2.1%
0.9%
0.3%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Wealdstone goals (down), columns = Gateshead goals (across).
Advertisement
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Barrow
2.18
Harrogate
2.08
Carlisle
2.04
Boreham Wood
1.90
Scunthorpe
1.77
Forest Green
1.74
Southend
1.72
Halifax
1.52
Hartlepool
1.48
Fylde
1.38
Kidderminster
1.38
Woking
1.37
Tamworth
1.35
Boston Utd
1.28
Altrincham
1.24
Wealdstone
1.22
Solihull
1.22
Yeovil
1.11
Eastleigh
1.09
Gateshead
1.09
Sutton
1.02
Aldershot
1.00
Wealdstone is 0.13 points better than Gateshead in terms of average points per game (1.22 vs 1.09).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Barrow
2.30
Harrogate
2.20
Boreham Wood
2.00
Carlisle
1.87
Southend
1.77
Forest Green
1.74
Scunthorpe
1.69
Solihull
1.54
Halifax
1.50
Aldershot
1.50
Woking
1.50
Wealdstone
1.48
Fylde
1.45
Kidderminster
1.45
Boston Utd
1.37
Tamworth
1.37
Sutton
1.28
Eastleigh
1.24
Altrincham
1.20
Hartlepool
1.17
Gateshead
1.17
Yeovil
1.04
Wealdstone is 0.30 goals better than Gateshead in terms of goals scored per game (1.48 vs 1.17).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Barrow
0.92
Harrogate
0.96
Southend
1.02
Carlisle
1.11
Forest Green
1.11
Woking
1.17
Boreham Wood
1.24
Hartlepool
1.28
Scunthorpe
1.35
Altrincham
1.41
Halifax
1.43
Boston Utd
1.46
Fylde
1.46
Kidderminster
1.46
Yeovil
1.48
Tamworth
1.54
Solihull
1.57
Wealdstone
1.65
Sutton
1.72
Eastleigh
1.74
Aldershot
1.89
Gateshead
1.96
Wealdstone is 0.30 goals better than Gateshead in terms of goals conceded per game (1.65 vs 1.96).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Boreham Wood
58%
Wealdstone
57%
Sutton
54%
Aldershot
54%
Forest Green
53%
Southend
52%
Altrincham
52%
Gateshead
50%
Woking
50%
Scunthorpe
49%
Carlisle
49%
Solihull
48%
Halifax
48%
Hartlepool
47%
Yeovil
47%
Eastleigh
41%
Tamworth
38%
Wealdstone is 6.2 percentage points better than Gateshead in terms of average possession (57% vs 50%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Wealdstone or Draw
75.2%
Avg Implied -
52%
24%
25%
covers Wealdstone + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Wealdstone or Gateshead
76.3%
Avg Implied -
52%
24%
25%
covers Wealdstone + Gateshead
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Gateshead
48.5%
Avg Implied -
52%
24%
25%
covers Draw + Gateshead
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Advertisement
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Wealdstone over/under 0.5
Over
86.2%
Under
13.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Wealdstone over/under 1.5
Over
58.8%
Under
41.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Wealdstone over/under 2.5
Over
31.8%
Under
68.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Wealdstone over/under 3.5
Over
13.9%
Under
86.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gateshead over/under 0.5
Over
73.6%
Under
26.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gateshead over/under 1.5
Over
38.5%
Under
61.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gateshead over/under 2.5
Over
15.0%
Under
85.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gateshead over/under 3.5
Over
4.6%
Under
95.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Wealdstone, so a minus line means Wealdstone give that many goals of a start and Gateshead receive them. At -1, Wealdstone must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Wealdstone win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Wealdstone)
Wealdstone -2
14.6%
Draw -2
15.9%
Gateshead +2
69.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Wealdstone)
Wealdstone -1
30.5%
Draw -1
21.0%
Gateshead +1
48.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Wealdstone)
Wealdstone +1
75.2%
Draw +1
13.8%
Gateshead -1
10.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Wealdstone)
Wealdstone +2
89.1%
Draw +2
7.2%
Gateshead -2
3.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Wealdstone
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.90
0.86
0.64
0.31
1.12
vs Stronger (4)
0.00
1.75
0.00
2.00
0.00
1.67
vs Similar (26)
0.65
0.77
0.92
0.54
0.38
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Gateshead) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Gateshead
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.77
0.47
0.73
0.47
0.80
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
2.00
-
-
0.00
2.00
vs Similar (24)
0.46
0.71
0.46
0.69
0.45
0.73
vs Weaker (5)
0.60
0.80
0.50
1.00
0.67
0.67
Clean sheet %
43% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Wealdstone) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Wealdstone over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Wealdstone over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Wealdstone over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gateshead over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gateshead over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gateshead over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Wealdstone
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
1.00
1.07
0.93
0.69
1.06
vs Stronger (4)
0.75
2.00
0.00
2.00
1.00
2.00
vs Similar (26)
0.88
0.85
1.15
0.85
0.62
0.85
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
33% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (Gateshead) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Gateshead
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.83
0.73
0.80
0.40
0.87
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
1.00
-
-
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (24)
0.58
0.96
0.69
0.92
0.45
1.00
vs Weaker (5)
0.60
0.20
1.00
0.00
0.33
0.33
Clean sheet %
37% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Wealdstone) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Wealdstone over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Wealdstone over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Wealdstone over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gateshead over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gateshead over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gateshead over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Advertisement
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
98.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
95.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
94.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
89.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
88.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
86.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
86.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
85.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
85.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5 cards
84.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
76.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
76.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Draw
75.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +1 handicap
75.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
73.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5 cards
70.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Advertisement
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BAR (11)
€2m
HAR (14)
€1m
FG (4)
€1m
BU (6)
€1m
EAS (5)
€1m
SOU (3)
€1m
HAR (6)
€1m
SOL (3)
€0m
ALT (5)
€0m
ALD (4)
€0m
WOK (3)
€0m
YEO (3)
€0m
SCU (2)
€0m
TAM (4)
€0m
CAR (1)
€0m
WEA (2)
€0m
HAL (2)
€0m
GAT (1)
€0m
SUT (1)
€0m
Wealdstone and Gateshead have a similar squad value (both €0m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BAR (3)
€0m
FG (2)
€0m
ALD (3)
€0m
HAR (4)
€0m
ALT (3)
€0m
SOL (2)
€0m
EAS (1)
€0m
HAR (2)
€0m
SCU (1)
€0m
GAT (1)
€0m
YEO (1)
€0m
BU (1)
€0m
TAM (2)
€0m
HAL (1)
€0m
WOK (1)
€0m
CAR (0)
€0m
SOU (0)
€0m
SUT (0)
€0m
WEA (0)
€0m
Wealdstone and Gateshead have a similar attack value (both €0m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BAR (5)
€1m
HAR (4)
€1m
SOU (2)
€0m
BU (2)
€0m
HAR (2)
€0m
TAM (2)
€0m
YEO (1)
€0m
ALT (1)
€0m
EAS (1)
€0m
SUT (1)
€0m
WEA (1)
€0m
SCU (0)
€0m
FG (0)
€0m
CAR (0)
€0m
GAT (0)
€0m
ALD (0)
€0m
SOL (0)
€0m
HAL (0)
€0m
WOK (0)
€0m
Wealdstone and Gateshead have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BAR (3)
€1m
HAR (6)
€0m
BU (3)
€0m
EAS (3)
€0m
FG (2)
€0m
WOK (2)
€0m
CAR (1)
€0m
SOL (1)
€0m
SOU (1)
€0m
SCU (1)
€0m
YEO (1)
€0m
HAR (2)
€0m
WEA (1)
€0m
HAL (1)
€0m
ALD (1)
€0m
ALT (1)
€0m
GAT (0)
€0m
TAM (0)
€0m
SUT (0)
€0m
Wealdstone and Gateshead have a similar defence value (both €0m).
England: National League 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full England: National League stats & trends →