West Brom and Burnley face off in the England Championship on August 23rd. Burnley are coming off a 2-2 draw against West Ham, while West Brom secured a 2-1 win over Norwich in their last match. This encounter pits two teams with similar strength against each other. West Brom's home form is impressive, with an average of 1.45 goals scored and 1.09 conceded against similar opponents. Burnley's away form is less convincing, averaging 1.12 goals scored and 2.75 conceded.
The model predicts a West Brom home win, with a 39% chance of a home victory, 26% chance of a draw, and 35% chance of an away win. The expected total number of goals is 3.1, with a most likely total of 2 goals. The most likely score is a 1-1 draw, with a 12% probability. West Brom's home scoring and conceding rates are strong, while Burnley's away scoring rate is relatively low.
The model's selections include an Over 1.5 goal margin, with an 82.2% probability and a 13% edge, and a Home or Away win, with a 71.1% probability. The home win percentage stands at 39%, the draw percentage at 26%, and the away win percentage at 35%.
Results analysis
The win for West Brom extends their two-game winning run, a surprise after the model had tipped an away victory for Burnley with 40 % confidence. The final score was 3-1, a home win that left the favourite wrong. The model’s selection of an away win was therefore incorrect. All of the model’s suggested picks were settled and hit: Under 7.5 goals at 99.5 %, Home under 2.5 HT goals at 99.2 %, Under 6.5 at 98.3 %, Home under 2.5 2H goals at 98.2 %, Home under 3.5 goals at 96.6 %, Away under 2.5 HT goals at 96.3 %, Under 5.5 at 95.2 %, and Away under 3.5 goals at 94.8 %. The match produced 4 goals, well above the model’s expected total of 2.6.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
West Brom win✓ Hit
31.4%
Avg Implied 33.7% · @ 2.78
Edge
-2.3%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
2.91
Betano
2.82
1xBet
2.82
Marathonbet
2.81
Dafabet
2.80
Draw✗ Miss
28.9%
Avg Implied 28.9% · @ 3.24
Edge
-0.1%
Best 5 market prices
Betfair
3.40
Betano
3.35
Dafabet
3.35
Pinnacle
3.31
Bet365
3.30
Burnley win✗ Miss
39.8%
Avg Implied 37.4% · @ 2.51
Edge
+2.4%
Best 5 market prices
Dafabet
2.60
Superbet
2.57
Pinnacle
2.55
Betano
2.52
Unibet
2.50
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
West Brom
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.10
1.20
1.21
1.21
1.00
1.19
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
-
-
vs Similar (28)
1.04
1.25
1.31
1.31
0.80
1.20
vs Weaker (1)
4.00
1.00
-
-
4.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
33% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (Burnley) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Burnley
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
2.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.10
1.90
1.29
1.71
0.85
2.15
vs Stronger (7)
1.14
1.43
1.50
1.75
0.67
1.00
vs Similar (21)
1.10
2.10
1.27
1.73
0.90
2.50
vs Weaker (2)
1.00
1.50
1.00
1.50
-
-
Clean sheet %
7% (-22pp vs league)
This opponent (West Brom) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
74.2%
@ 1.33+3.9%
Under 1.5
25.8%
@ 3.16-3.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
1.36
Superbet
1.35
10Bet
1.35
Betano
1.35
BetVictor
1.34
Under
Pinnacle
3.43
Bet365
3.40
Superbet
3.25
Betano
3.25
Unibet
3.15
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
47.8%
@ 2.04+1.6%
Under 2.5
52.2%
@ 1.75-1.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
2.10
Betfair
2.10
Pinnacle
2.07
Superbet
2.07
Unibet
2.06
Under
Pinnacle
1.81
Betano
1.80
SBO
1.79
1xBet
1.77
Marathonbet
1.77
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
26.1%
@ 3.56-0.2%
Under 3.5
73.9%
@ 1.27+0.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
3.80
Bet365
3.75
Superbet
3.70
Unibet
3.70
Pinnacle
3.65
Under
Betano
1.31
Pinnacle
1.29
Bet365
1.28
10Bet
1.28
Superbet
1.28
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
53.7%
@ 1.79+1.8%
No
46.3%
@ 1.93-1.8%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Betfair
1.87
Superbet
1.82
888Sport
1.80
Bet365
1.80
10Bet
1.80
No
Betano
1.98
1xBet
1.97
BetVictor
1.95
10Bet
1.95
Marathonbet
1.94
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.8%@ 5.88+6.2%
0-1
9.2%@ 7.44+3.1%
0-0
8.8%@ 8.49+3.5%
1-2
8.7%@ 9.06+3.7%
1-0
7.8%@ 7.90+2.1%
2-1
7.5%@ 9.69+2.9%
0-2
7.2%@ 11.38+3.3%
2-0
5.5%@ 12.61+1.9%
West Brom goals ↓
Burnley goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
8.8%
9.2%
7.2%
3.3%
1.1%
1
7.8%
14%
8.7%
4.0%
1.4%
2
5.5%
7.5%
5.2%
2.4%
0.8%
3
2.2%
3.0%
2.1%
1.0%
0.3%
4
0.7%
0.9%
0.6%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = West Brom goals (down), columns = Burnley goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
West Ham
1.92
Wolves
1.90
Millwall
1.75
Burnley
1.72
Southampton
1.71
Middlesbrough
1.67
Wrexham
1.54
Derby
1.50
Norwich
1.41
Birmingham
1.39
Swansea
1.39
Bristol City
1.35
Sheffield United
1.30
Preston
1.30
Cardiff
1.30
QPR
1.26
Watford
1.24
Stoke
1.20
Portsmouth
1.20
West Brom
1.15
Charlton
1.15
Blackburn
1.13
Bolton
1.00
Lincoln
0.94
West Brom is 0.57 points worse than Burnley in terms of average points per game (1.15 vs 1.72).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
West Ham
1.82
Wolves
1.81
Southampton
1.73
Burnley
1.63
Wrexham
1.50
Middlesbrough
1.49
Derby
1.46
Sheffield United
1.43
Norwich
1.37
Millwall
1.33
QPR
1.33
Bristol City
1.28
Birmingham
1.24
Swansea
1.24
Cardiff
1.23
Preston
1.20
Watford
1.15
Stoke
1.11
Portsmouth
1.07
West Brom
1.04
Charlton
0.96
Bolton
0.95
Blackburn
0.91
Lincoln
0.89
West Brom is 0.59 goals worse than Burnley in terms of goals scored per game (1.04 vs 1.63).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
West Ham
0.92
Wolves
0.93
Middlesbrough
1.00
Burnley
1.03
Millwall
1.06
Southampton
1.19
Birmingham
1.22
Blackburn
1.22
Norwich
1.22
Stoke
1.22
West Brom
1.26
Charlton
1.26
Bristol City
1.28
Swansea
1.28
Derby
1.28
Preston
1.35
Cardiff
1.36
Portsmouth
1.39
Wrexham
1.41
Watford
1.41
Sheffield United
1.43
QPR
1.59
Bolton
1.77
Lincoln
1.87
West Brom is 0.23 goals worse than Burnley in terms of goals conceded per game (1.26 vs 1.03).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Middlesbrough
59%
Southampton
56%
Swansea
55%
Birmingham
54%
Norwich
54%
Sheffield United
52%
Stoke
52%
West Brom
52%
Watford
51%
Portsmouth
50%
Bristol City
49%
Wrexham
48%
Blackburn
48%
Millwall
48%
QPR
46%
Preston
46%
Derby
44%
Charlton
42%
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
West Brom
For 3.5 · Against 5.1 · Total 8.6
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.6 · Against 1.8 · Total 3.4
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 8.8 · Against 11.5 · Total 20.3
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Burnley
For 4.3 · Against 5.5 · Total 9.8
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.6 · Against 1.8 · Total 3.4
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.4 · Against 9.9 · Total 21.3
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
West Brom
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.3
9.3
9.4
3.4
3.7
3.3
20.5
21.0
20.1
vs Stronger (2)
8.5
8.0
9.0
3.5
5.0
2.0
19.0
18.0
20.0
vs Similar (47)
9.5
9.3
9.6
3.5
3.6
3.4
20.7
21.1
20.3
vs Weaker (1)
3.0
-
3.0
2.0
-
2.0
16.0
-
16.0
% over line
46%
52%
41%
42%
43%
41%
40%
43%
37%
% under line
54%
48%
59%
58%
57%
59%
60%
57%
63%
This opponent (Burnley) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Burnley
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.4
9.4
9.4
3.2
2.7
3.8
20.3
20.0
20.7
vs Stronger (14)
9.9
9.6
10.1
2.9
2.1
3.7
20.4
20.6
20.1
vs Similar (34)
9.3
9.5
9.1
3.2
2.7
3.9
20.0
19.2
21.0
vs Weaker (2)
8.5
8.5
-
4.5
4.5
-
25.5
25.5
-
% over line
50%
50%
50%
44%
32%
59%
42%
32%
55%
% under line
50%
50%
50%
56%
68%
41%
58%
68%
45%
This opponent (West Brom) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Sheffield United
11.4
West Ham
11.1
Southampton
11.0
Middlesbrough
10.9
Cardiff
10.8
Millwall
10.8
Portsmouth
10.7
Preston
10.6
Stoke
10.6
Blackburn
10.6
Norwich
10.5
Watford
10.4
Wrexham
10.4
Birmingham
10.3
QPR
10.2
Bolton
10.2
Bristol City
10.0
Swansea
10.0
Derby
10.0
Charlton
9.7
Wolves
9.5
Burnley
9.4
West Brom
9.3
Lincoln
9.1
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Watford
4.5
Lincoln
4.1
Sheffield United
4.1
Derby
4.1
Southampton
4.1
Stoke
4.0
Portsmouth
3.9
Blackburn
3.9
Bristol City
3.9
Swansea
3.9
West Ham
3.9
Norwich
3.9
Wolves
3.8
QPR
3.7
Bolton
3.7
Birmingham
3.7
Charlton
3.6
Middlesbrough
3.6
Millwall
3.5
Cardiff
3.5
Preston
3.5
Wrexham
3.5
West Brom
3.4
Burnley
3.2
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Wolves
23.3
Lincoln
23.0
Derby
22.8
Southampton
22.5
West Ham
22.5
Swansea
22.4
Portsmouth
22.2
Bolton
22.2
Birmingham
22.0
Sheffield United
21.6
Charlton
21.6
Middlesbrough
21.3
Norwich
21.3
Watford
21.3
Bristol City
21.2
Blackburn
21.1
Stoke
20.8
QPR
20.7
Millwall
20.7
Cardiff
20.6
West Brom
20.5
Burnley
20.3
Preston
20.1
Wrexham
19.4
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
50.6%
@ 1.98+3.8%
Under 9.5
49.4%
@ 1.75-3.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
2.10
Superbet
2.07
Betano
2.05
10Bet
2.05
Pinnacle
2.03
Under
Betfair
1.85
Marathonbet
1.79
Unibet
1.78
1xBet
1.78
Pinnacle
1.78
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
53.2%
@ 1.66-2.8%
Under 3.5
46.8%
@ 2.11+2.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.67
Bet365
1.67
Pinnacle
1.65
Superbet
1.65
Betano
1.65
Under
Pinnacle
2.17
Betano
2.15
Bet365
2.10
1xBet
2.10
Unibet
2.08
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Under
Over 21.5
46.8%
@ 1.73-4.9%
Under 21.5
53.2%
@ 1.85+4.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.73
Under
Superbet
1.85
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
West Brom or Draw✓ Hit
60.2%
Avg Implied 62.6% · @ 1.49
Edge
-2.4%
31%
29%
40%
covers West Brom + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.55
Superbet
1.51
10Bet
1.50
Unibet
1.50
William Hil
1.50
West Brom or Burnley✓ Hit
71.1%
Avg Implied 71.1% · @ 1.31
Edge
+0.0%
31%
29%
40%
covers West Brom + Burnley
Best 5 market prices
Superbet
1.34
William Hil
1.33
Bet365
1.33
Unibet
1.33
1xBet
1.33
Draw or Burnley✗ Miss
68.6%
Avg Implied 66.3% · @ 1.41
Edge
+2.3%
31%
29%
40%
covers Draw + Burnley
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.45
Superbet
1.44
Unibet
1.42
10Bet
1.42
Marathonbet
1.40
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
West Brom over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
70.0%
@ 1.33+0.3%
Under
30.0%
@ 3.07-0.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.36
Betano
1.35
Pinnacle
1.34
BetVictor
1.33
Bet365
1.33
Under
Bet365
3.25
Pinnacle
3.23
Betfair
3.20
888Sport
3.10
Betano
3.05
West Brom over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
33.9%
@ 2.66-1.2%
Under
66.1%
@ 1.44+1.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.80
Betfair
2.75
Superbet
2.67
1xBet
2.66
Marathonbet
2.66
Under
Betano
1.47
Pinnacle
1.46
888Sport
1.44
Superbet
1.44
Marathonbet
1.44
West Brom over/under 2.5Actual: Over
Over
12.1%
@ 6.40-2.4%
Under
87.9%
@ 1.09+2.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
7.00
Betfair
7.00
BetVictor
6.50
888Sport
6.50
1xBet
6.25
Under
Betano
1.11
Bet365
1.10
888Sport
1.10
Superbet
1.10
10Bet
1.08
West Brom over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
3.4%
@ 16.69-2.4%
Under
96.6%
@ 1.02+2.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
888Sport
21.00
Bet365
19.00
Superbet
16.00
Betano
10.75
Under
Betano
1.03
Bet365
1.02
888Sport
1.02
Superbet
1.01
Burnley over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
74.9%
@ 1.30+3.1%
Under
25.1%
@ 3.29-3.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.32
Superbet
1.31
888Sport
1.30
10Bet
1.30
Bet365
1.30
Under
Pinnacle
3.56
Bet365
3.40
Betfair
3.30
BetVictor
3.30
888Sport
3.30
Burnley over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
40.2%
@ 2.47+2.4%
Under
59.8%
@ 1.50-2.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
2.55
Pinnacle
2.54
888Sport
2.50
Bet365
2.50
BetVictor
2.45
Under
Pinnacle
1.54
Betano
1.53
Marathonbet
1.52
1xBet
1.52
Superbet
1.51
Burnley over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
16.2%
@ 5.71-0.1%
Under
83.8%
@ 1.11+0.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
6.50
888Sport
6.00
Bet365
6.00
Unibet
5.75
Superbet
5.70
Under
Betano
1.14
Superbet
1.12
Bet365
1.12
Marathonbet
1.11
BetVictor
1.11
Burnley over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
5.2%
@ 14.69-1.4%
Under
94.8%
@ 1.02+1.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
888Sport
17.00
Bet365
17.00
Superbet
15.00
Betano
9.75
Under
888Sport
1.03
Betano
1.03
Superbet
1.02
Bet365
1.02
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to West Brom, so a minus line means West Brom give that many goals of a start and Burnley receive them. At -1, West Brom must win by two or more to land; a one-goal West Brom win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (West Brom)Actual: Draw
West Brom -2
4.4%
@ 13.40-2.3%
Draw -2
9.2%
@ 7.56-2.7%
Burnley +2
86.4%
@ 1.11+5.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
15.00
Betfair
14.00
Unibet
13.00
10Bet
13.00
Superbet
12.00
Draw
Betfair
8.00
Bet365
8.00
Unibet
7.50
Superbet
7.30
10Bet
7.00
Away
Superbet
1.12
10Bet
1.11
Bet365
1.11
Unibet
1.10
Betfair
1.10
Handicap -1 (West Brom)Actual: West Brom
West Brom -1
13.6%
@ 5.70-2.0%
Draw -1
17.8%
@ 4.29-3.1%
Burnley +1
68.6%
@ 1.41+5.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
6.00
Unibet
5.75
10Bet
5.75
Betfair
5.50
Marathonbet
5.50
Draw
Bet365
4.50
Betfair
4.33
Marathonbet
4.30
10Bet
4.20
Unibet
4.10
Away
10Bet
1.42
Unibet
1.41
Marathonbet
1.40
Bet365
1.40
Betfair
1.40
Handicap +1 (West Brom)Actual: West Brom
West Brom +1
60.2%
@ 1.49+0.2%
Draw +1
20.6%
@ 4.05-1.5%
Burnley -1
19.2%
@ 5.01+1.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.50
10Bet
1.50
Marathonbet
1.50
Superbet
1.49
Unibet
1.49
Draw
Bet365
4.33
Superbet
4.10
Marathonbet
4.00
Betfair
4.00
10Bet
3.95
Away
Betfair
5.50
10Bet
5.00
Bet365
5.00
Unibet
4.90
Superbet
4.90
Handicap +2 (West Brom)Actual: West Brom
West Brom +2
80.8%
@ 1.13+2.4%
Draw +2
12.1%
@ 6.65-1.2%
Burnley -2
7.1%
@ 10.78-1.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Superbet
1.14
Bet365
1.14
10Bet
1.14
Unibet
1.13
Marathonbet
1.12
Draw
Bet365
7.50
Betfair
7.50
Superbet
6.80
Unibet
6.75
10Bet
6.50
Away
Betfair
13.00
Bet365
12.00
Superbet
11.00
10Bet
11.00
Unibet
11.00
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
West Brom
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.57
0.57
0.50
0.38
0.62
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
-
-
vs Similar (28)
0.43
0.61
0.62
0.54
0.27
0.67
vs Weaker (1)
2.00
0.00
-
-
2.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
60% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Burnley) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Burnley
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.97
0.59
1.00
0.31
0.92
vs Stronger (7)
0.43
0.86
0.75
0.75
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (21)
0.48
1.05
0.55
1.18
0.40
0.90
vs Weaker (2)
0.50
0.50
0.50
0.50
-
-
Clean sheet %
30% (+1pp vs league)
This opponent (West Brom) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
66.3%
@ 1.41+0.4%
Under 0.5
33.7%
@ 2.73-0.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.47
Superbet
1.45
Marathonbet
1.43
1xBet
1.43
BetVictor
1.43
Under
Pinnacle
2.91
Betfair
2.88
10Bet
2.80
William Hil
2.80
Bet365
2.75
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
32.4%
@ 2.93+0.7%
Under 1.5
67.6%
@ 1.36-0.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
3.05
Pinnacle
3.03
Bet365
3.00
Superbet
3.00
Unibet
3.00
Under
10Bet
1.40
Pinnacle
1.38
Betano
1.38
BetVictor
1.37
Superbet
1.37
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
11.0%
@ 7.60-1.2%
Under 2.5
89.0%
@ 1.06+1.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
9.00
Bet365
9.00
Betfair
8.00
Superbet
7.70
Unibet
7.50
Under
Betano
1.09
10Bet
1.08
William Hil
1.08
Superbet
1.07
Bet365
1.07
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
West Brom over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
34.9%
@ 2.21-7.1%
Under
65.1%
@ 1.60+7.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.27
Unibet
2.25
Betano
2.25
Superbet
2.22
1xBet
2.20
Under
10Bet
1.67
Pinnacle
1.63
Betano
1.60
Marathonbet
1.58
1xBet
1.58
West Brom over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
6.4%
@ 7.15-6.5%
Under
93.6%
@ 1.06+6.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
7.50
Marathonbet
7.50
Superbet
7.10
10Bet
7.00
Unibet
7.00
Under
Betano
1.08
10Bet
1.07
Unibet
1.06
Superbet
1.06
1xBet
1.05
West Brom over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.8%
@ 19.25-4.2%
Under
99.2%
@ 1.01+4.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
26.00
Betano
12.50
Under
Betano
1.01
Burnley over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
54.6%
@ 2.10+10.3%
Under
45.4%
@ 1.67-10.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
2.14
Pinnacle
2.14
Betano
2.12
Superbet
2.10
1xBet
2.08
Under
10Bet
1.73
Pinnacle
1.71
Betano
1.67
1xBet
1.65
Marathonbet
1.65
Burnley over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
15.0%
@ 6.55+0.9%
Under
85.0%
@ 1.07-0.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
6.75
1xBet
6.75
Unibet
6.75
Superbet
6.60
10Bet
6.25
Under
Betano
1.10
10Bet
1.08
Superbet
1.08
Unibet
1.07
Marathonbet
1.06
Burnley over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
3.7%
@ 17.00-1.9%
Under
96.3%
@ 1.02+1.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
22.00
Betano
12.00
Under
Betano
1.02
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
West Brom
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.63
0.64
0.71
0.62
0.56
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
-
-
vs Similar (28)
0.61
0.64
0.69
0.77
0.53
0.53
vs Weaker (1)
2.00
1.00
-
-
2.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
57% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Burnley) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Burnley
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.93
0.71
0.71
0.54
1.23
vs Stronger (7)
0.71
0.57
0.75
1.00
0.67
0.00
vs Similar (21)
0.62
1.05
0.73
0.55
0.50
1.60
vs Weaker (2)
0.50
1.00
0.50
1.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (West Brom) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
77.5%
@ 1.25+3.3%
Under 0.5
22.5%
@ 3.59-3.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.28
Betano
1.27
Bet365
1.25
William Hil
1.25
1xBet
1.24
Under
Bet365
3.75
Betano
3.70
Unibet
3.60
Superbet
3.60
Marathonbet
3.50
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
45.2%
@ 2.21+2.8%
Under 1.5
54.8%
@ 1.63-2.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
2.27
1xBet
2.20
Marathonbet
2.20
William Hil
2.20
Unibet
2.20
Under
Betano
1.67
Marathonbet
1.63
1xBet
1.63
William Hil
1.62
Bet365
1.62
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
17.9%
@ 4.83-1.5%
Under 2.5
82.1%
@ 1.16+1.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
5.10
Bet365
5.00
William Hil
5.00
Unibet
4.90
Marathonbet
4.65
Under
Betano
1.19
Bet365
1.17
Superbet
1.16
William Hil
1.15
Unibet
1.14
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
West Brom over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
40.6%
@ 1.84-9.5%
Under
59.4%
@ 1.85+9.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.88
Marathonbet
1.84
1xBet
1.84
Betano
1.82
Under
Betano
1.91
1xBet
1.84
Marathonbet
1.84
Superbet
1.82
West Brom over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
9.9%
@ 5.20-7.8%
Under
90.1%
@ 1.12+7.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
5.35
1xBet
5.30
Marathonbet
5.30
Betano
4.85
Under
Betano
1.16
Superbet
1.12
Marathonbet
1.11
1xBet
1.11
West Brom over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
1.8%
@ 13.88-5.1%
Under
98.2%
@ 1.02+5.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
17.00
Betano
10.75
Under
Betano
1.03
Superbet
1.01
Burnley over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
61.1%
@ 1.77+9.0%
Under
38.9%
@ 1.94-9.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.80
Betano
1.78
1xBet
1.76
Marathonbet
1.76
Under
Betano
1.98
1xBet
1.93
Marathonbet
1.93
Superbet
1.90
Burnley over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
26.5%
@ 4.75+7.0%
Under
73.5%
@ 1.15-7.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
4.90
1xBet
4.80
Marathonbet
4.80
Betano
4.50
Under
Betano
1.18
Superbet
1.14
Marathonbet
1.14
1xBet
1.14
Burnley over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
5.9%
@ 12.50-1.7%
Under
94.1%
@ 1.02+1.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
15.00
Betano
10.00
Under
Betano
1.03
Superbet
1.01
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 7.5
99.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 HT goals
99.2%
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
-
+4.2%
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
98.3%
1.01
Superbet
1.01
Bet365
1.01
Betano
1.01
1xBet
1.01
-
+1.8%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 2H goals
98.2%
1.02
Betano
1.03
Superbet
1.01
-
-
-
+5.1%
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
96.6%
1.02
Betano
1.03
Bet365
1.02
888Sport
1.02
Superbet
1.01
-
+2.4%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 HT goals
96.3%
1.02
Betano
1.02
-
-
-
-
+1.9%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
95.2%
1.03
Betano
1.04
Bet365
1.03
888Sport
1.03
Superbet
1.03
1xBet
1.02
+1.6%
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
94.8%
1.02
888Sport
1.03
Betano
1.03
Superbet
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
+1.4%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 2H goals
94.1%
1.02
Betano
1.03
Superbet
1.01
-
-
-
+1.7%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 HT goals
93.6%
1.06
Betano
1.08
10Bet
1.07
Unibet
1.06
Superbet
1.06
1xBet
1.05
+6.5%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 2H goals
90.1%
1.12
Betano
1.16
Superbet
1.12
Marathonbet
1.11
1xBet
1.11
-
+7.8%
✗ Miss
Under 2.5 HT goals
89.0%
1.06
Betano
1.09
10Bet
1.08
William Hil
1.08
Superbet
1.07
Bet365
1.07
+1.2%
✓ Hit
Under 4.5
87.9%
1.08
Pinnacle
1.11
Betano
1.11
Bet365
1.10
Superbet
1.09
10Bet
1.08
+1.1%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 goals
87.9%
1.09
Betano
1.11
Bet365
1.10
888Sport
1.10
Superbet
1.10
10Bet
1.08
+2.4%
✗ Miss
Away +2 handicap
86.4%
1.11
Superbet
1.12
10Bet
1.11
Bet365
1.11
Unibet
1.10
Betfair
1.10
+5.0%
✗ Miss
Away under 1.5 HT goals
85.0%
1.07
Betano
1.10
10Bet
1.08
Superbet
1.08
Unibet
1.07
Marathonbet
1.06
-0.9%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
83.8%
1.11
Betano
1.14
Superbet
1.12
Bet365
1.12
Marathonbet
1.11
BetVictor
1.11
+0.1%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 2H goals
82.1%
1.16
Betano
1.19
Bet365
1.17
Superbet
1.16
William Hil
1.15
Unibet
1.14
+1.5%
✓ Hit
Under 25.5 fouls
82.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards
81.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
80.8%
1.13
Superbet
1.14
Bet365
1.14
10Bet
1.14
Unibet
1.13
Marathonbet
1.12
+2.4%
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 2H goals
77.5%
1.25
Superbet
1.28
Betano
1.27
Bet365
1.25
William Hil
1.25
1xBet
1.24
+3.3%
✓ Hit
Away over 0.5 goals
74.9%
1.30
Betano
1.32
Superbet
1.31
888Sport
1.30
10Bet
1.30
Bet365
1.30
+3.1%
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
74.2%
1.33
Betfair
1.36
Superbet
1.35
10Bet
1.35
Betano
1.35
BetVictor
1.34
+3.9%
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
73.9%
1.27
Betano
1.31
Pinnacle
1.29
Bet365
1.28
10Bet
1.28
Superbet
1.28
+0.2%
✗ Miss
Over 2.5 cards
73.5%
1.25
Superbet
1.25
-
-
-
-
+2.0%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 2H goals
73.5%
1.15
Betano
1.18
Superbet
1.14
Marathonbet
1.14
1xBet
1.14
-
-7.0%
✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners
72.8%
1.27
Unibet
1.30
Betfair
1.29
Superbet
1.27
Betano
1.25
Marathonbet
1.25
+0.2%
✓ Hit
Home or Away
71.1%
1.31
Superbet
1.34
William Hil
1.33
Bet365
1.33
Unibet
1.33
1xBet
1.33
+0.0%
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
West Brom
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Jimmy Morgan50%
Harry Whitwell40%
Isaac Price33%
Aune Selland Heggebø25%
Callum Styles17%
Felix Horn Myhre17%
Ousmane Diakité0%
Chris Mepham0%
Jayson Molumby0%
Max O'Leary0%
George Campbell0%
Nathaniel Phillips0%
Nolan Galves0%
Rabby Nzingoula0%
Barney Stewart0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Ousmane Diakité50%
Nathaniel Phillips20%
Rabby Nzingoula20%
George Campbell17%
Barney Stewart17%
Chris Mepham0%
Jayson Molumby0%
Max O'Leary0%
Callum Styles0%
Felix Horn Myhre0%
Aune Selland Heggebø0%
Isaac Price0%
Jimmy Morgan0%
Nolan Galves0%
Harry Whitwell0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Jimmy Morgan33%
Max O'Leary20%
Harry Whitwell20%
Callum Styles17%
Isaac Price17%
Ousmane Diakité0%
Chris Mepham0%
Jayson Molumby0%
Felix Horn Myhre0%
George Campbell0%
Nathaniel Phillips0%
Aune Selland Heggebø0%
Nolan Galves0%
Rabby Nzingoula0%
Barney Stewart0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Isaac Price33%
Jimmy Morgan17%
Ousmane Diakité0%
Chris Mepham0%
Jayson Molumby0%
Max O'Leary0%
Callum Styles0%
Felix Horn Myhre0%
George Campbell0%
Nathaniel Phillips0%
Aune Selland Heggebø0%
Nolan Galves0%
Harry Whitwell0%
Rabby Nzingoula0%
Barney Stewart0%
Burnley
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Zian Flemming50%
Josh Laurent20%
Ugo Raghouber17%
Jacob Bruun Larsen0%
Kyle Walker0%
Anel Ahmedhodžić0%
Connor Roberts0%
Mike Trésor0%
Marcus Edwards0%
Zeki Amdouni0%
Oliver Sonne0%
Armando Broja0%
Hannibal Mejbri0%
Bashir Humphreys0%
Aaron Ramsey0%
Max Alleyne0%
Max Weiss0%
Lucas Pires0%
Dastan Satpaev0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Zian Flemming25%
Oliver Sonne25%
Josh Laurent20%
Marcus Edwards20%
Hannibal Mejbri17%
Ugo Raghouber17%
Jacob Bruun Larsen0%
Kyle Walker0%
Anel Ahmedhodžić0%
Connor Roberts0%
Mike Trésor0%
Zeki Amdouni0%
Armando Broja0%
Bashir Humphreys0%
Aaron Ramsey0%
Max Alleyne0%
Max Weiss0%
Lucas Pires0%
Dastan Satpaev0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Max Alleyne25%
Marcus Edwards20%
Jacob Bruun Larsen17%
Zeki Amdouni17%
Kyle Walker0%
Anel Ahmedhodžić0%
Connor Roberts0%
Josh Laurent0%
Zian Flemming0%
Mike Trésor0%
Oliver Sonne0%
Armando Broja0%
Hannibal Mejbri0%
Bashir Humphreys0%
Aaron Ramsey0%
Max Weiss0%
Lucas Pires0%
Ugo Raghouber0%
Dastan Satpaev0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Zian Flemming75%
Josh Laurent20%
Aaron Ramsey20%
Jacob Bruun Larsen0%
Kyle Walker0%
Anel Ahmedhodžić0%
Connor Roberts0%
Mike Trésor0%
Marcus Edwards0%
Zeki Amdouni0%
Oliver Sonne0%
Armando Broja0%
Hannibal Mejbri0%
Bashir Humphreys0%
Max Alleyne0%
Max Weiss0%
Lucas Pires0%
Ugo Raghouber0%
Dastan Satpaev0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
WHU (24)
€274m
WOL (31)
€273m
SOU (30)
€205m
MID (29)
€142m
BUR (28)
€115m
SHU (27)
€110m
NOR (34)
€107m
BIR (26)
€93m
SWA (27)
€91m
WAT (22)
€88m
MIL (29)
€85m
STK (25)
€79m
WRE (32)
€77m
QPR (28)
€71m
BRC (25)
€66m
DER (25)
€57m
WBA (22)
€52m
PRE (20)
€43m
BLB (27)
€36m
POR (30)
€32m
CHA (29)
€31m
CAR (25)
€29m
BOL (22)
€17m
LIN (24)
€12m
West Brom's squad is €63m less valuable than Burnley's (€52m vs €115m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
WHU (7)
€84m
WOL (11)
€79m
MID (12)
€74m
SOU (10)
€72m
BUR (14)
€70m
SWA (13)
€56m
NOR (10)
€46m
BIR (9)
€46m
STK (8)
€35m
MIL (10)
€30m
QPR (11)
€29m
SHU (9)
€29m
BRC (8)
€29m
WAT (6)
€28m
DER (8)
€25m
CHA (13)
€18m
PRE (6)
€17m
CAR (12)
€15m
BLB (8)
€15m
WRE (9)
€15m
WBA (7)
€15m
POR (12)
€13m
BOL (6)
€4m
LIN (7)
€3m
West Brom's attack is €55m less valuable than Burnley's (€15m vs €70m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
WOL (6)
€79m
SOU (5)
€53m
WHU (5)
€48m
WAT (6)
€38m
SHU (5)
€32m
NOR (11)
€31m
MIL (8)
€29m
MID (5)
€27m
WRE (9)
€23m
WBA (6)
€22m
BRC (6)
€19m
QPR (5)
€15m
DER (6)
€14m
BIR (5)
€12m
STK (6)
€11m
SWA (4)
€9m
BUR (3)
€8m
BLB (7)
€7m
POR (5)
€5m
BOL (4)
€4m
CAR (3)
€4m
CHA (3)
€3m
PRE (3)
€3m
LIN (4)
€2m
West Brom's midfield is €14m more valuable than Burnley's (€22m vs €8m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
WHU (12)
€141m
WOL (14)
€116m
SOU (15)
€79m
SHU (13)
€49m
MID (12)
€41m
WRE (14)
€39m
BUR (11)
€37m
BIR (12)
€35m
STK (11)
€32m
NOR (13)
€29m
QPR (12)
€27m
SWA (10)
€26m
MIL (11)
€25m
PRE (11)
€22m
WAT (10)
€22m
BRC (11)
€18m
DER (11)
€18m
WBA (9)
€15m
POR (13)
€14m
BLB (12)
€14m
CHA (13)
€10m
CAR (10)
€10m
BOL (12)
€9m
LIN (13)
€6m
West Brom's defence is €22m less valuable than Burnley's (€15m vs €37m).
England: Championship 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full England: Championship stats & trends →
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Swansea
QPR
Charlton
Southampton
Wolves
Middlesbrough
Bristol City
Birmingham
Sheffield United
Millwall
Wrexham
West Ham
Blackburn
Watford
Bolton
Derby
Lincoln
Cardiff
Norwich
Portsmouth
Stoke
Preston