This opponent (Derby) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Derby
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.93
1.20
0.86
0.64
1.00
1.69
vs Stronger (4)
0.50
1.00
0.67
0.67
0.00
2.00
vs Similar (26)
1.00
1.23
0.91
0.64
1.07
1.67
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
27% (+2pp vs league)
This opponent (West Brom) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
72.4%
Under 1.5
27.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
45.4%
Under 2.5
54.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
24.1%
Under 3.5
75.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
51.9%
No
48.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1 ✓
14.1%
0-0
9.5%
1-0
9.5%
0-1
8.5%
2-1
8.4%
1-2
7.6%
2-0
7.1%
0-2
5.8%
West Brom goals ↓
Derby goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
9.5%
8.5%
5.8%
2.3%
0.7%
1
9.5%
14%
7.6%
3.0%
0.9%
2
7.1%
8.4%
5.0%
2.0%
0.6%
3
3.1%
3.7%
2.2%
0.9%
0.3%
4
1.0%
1.2%
0.7%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = West Brom goals (down), columns = Derby goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Newcastle
2.71
Sheffield Weds
2.50
Tottenham
2.40
Fleetwood Town
2.33
Crystal Palace
2.25
Coventry
2.00
Blackpool
2.00
Fulham
2.00
Wycombe
2.00
Watford
2.00
Leyton Orient
2.00
Everton
2.00
Manchester United
2.00
Derby
2.00
Liverpool
2.00
Brighton
2.00
Arsenal
1.80
Southampton
1.75
Stoke
1.75
Preston
1.75
Brentford
1.75
Walsall
1.67
Cardiff
1.50
Doncaster
1.50
Sheffield United
1.50
West Ham
1.50
Blackburn
1.50
Birmingham
1.50
Rotherham
1.50
Crawley Town
1.50
Chelsea
1.50
Swansea
1.50
Millwall
1.50
Norwich
1.50
Plymouth
1.50
Manchester City
1.50
Harrogate
1.50
Oxford
1.50
Tranmere
1.50
Huddersfield
1.50
Wolves
1.50
Middlesbrough
1.50
Aston Villa
1.50
Barnsley
1.33
AFC Wimbledon
1.33
QPR
1.33
Barrow
1.33
Leicester
1.33
Bolton
1.33
Exeter
1.00
Reading
1.00
Notts County
1.00
Bradford
1.00
Nottingham Forest
1.00
Wigan
1.00
Luton
1.00
Ipswich
1.00
Mansfield
1.00
Barnet
0.76
Oldham
0.70
Grimsby
0.50
Shrewsbury
0.50
Colchester
0.50
Bristol City
0.00
Cheltenham
0.00
Bristol Rvs
0.00
Salford
0.00
Port Vale
0.00
Wrexham
0.00
Leeds
0.00
Northampton
0.00
Burton
0.00
Stockport
0.00
Stevenage
0.00
Cambridge
0.00
Accrington
0.00
West Brom
0.00
Bromley
0.00
Bournemouth
0.00
Gillingham
0.00
Milton Keynes Dons
0.00
Hull
0.00
Portsmouth
0.00
Chesterfield
0.00
Swindon
0.00
Newport County
0.00
Crewe
0.00
Peterboro
0.00
Lincoln
0.00
Burnley
0.00
Charlton
0.00
Sunderland
0.00
West Brom is 2.00 points worse than Derby in terms of average points per game (0.00 vs 2.00).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Manchester United
5.00
Blackburn
3.50
Stevenage
3.00
Notts County
3.00
Brighton
3.00
Watford
2.67
Cardiff
2.50
Southampton
2.50
Chelsea
2.50
Stoke
2.50
Huddersfield
2.50
Crystal Palace
2.50
Liverpool
2.50
Sheffield Weds
2.25
Arsenal
2.20
Sheffield United
2.00
Port Vale
2.00
Wrexham
2.00
Blackpool
2.00
Reading
2.00
Crawley Town
2.00
Leicester
2.00
Leyton Orient
2.00
Everton
2.00
Norwich
2.00
Swindon
2.00
Preston
2.00
Wolves
2.00
Ipswich
2.00
Newcastle
1.86
Tottenham
1.80
Fleetwood Town
1.67
Rotherham
1.50
Shrewsbury
1.50
Fulham
1.50
Swansea
1.50
Plymouth
1.50
Manchester City
1.50
Tranmere
1.50
Middlesbrough
1.50
Aston Villa
1.50
Brentford
1.50
AFC Wimbledon
1.33
QPR
1.33
Wycombe
1.33
Walsall
1.33
Bolton
1.33
Coventry
1.00
Doncaster
1.00
West Ham
1.00
Exeter
1.00
Grimsby
1.00
Stockport
1.00
Cambridge
1.00
West Brom
1.00
Barrow
1.00
Bromley
1.00
Gillingham
1.00
Bradford
1.00
Nottingham Forest
1.00
Harrogate
1.00
Hull
1.00
Oxford
1.00
Derby
1.00
Chesterfield
1.00
Newport County
1.00
Wigan
1.00
Luton
1.00
Crewe
1.00
Lincoln
1.00
Colchester
1.00
Mansfield
1.00
Barnet
0.99
Oldham
0.92
Barnsley
0.67
Birmingham
0.50
Millwall
0.50
Bristol City
0.00
Cheltenham
0.00
Bristol Rvs
0.00
Salford
0.00
Leeds
0.00
Northampton
0.00
Burton
0.00
Accrington
0.00
Bournemouth
0.00
Milton Keynes Dons
0.00
Portsmouth
0.00
Peterboro
0.00
Burnley
0.00
Charlton
0.00
Sunderland
0.00
West Brom and Derby are level in goals scored per game (both 1.00).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Newcastle
0.43
Fulham
0.50
Everton
0.50
Millwall
0.50
Oxford
0.50
Derby
0.50
Coventry
0.67
Blackpool
0.67
Wycombe
0.67
Watford
0.67
Sheffield Weds
0.75
Bristol City
1.00
Exeter
1.00
Birmingham
1.00
Fleetwood Town
1.00
Chelsea
1.00
Bournemouth
1.00
Swansea
1.00
Bradford
1.00
Plymouth
1.00
Stoke
1.00
Nottingham Forest
1.00
Portsmouth
1.00
Wigan
1.00
Walsall
1.00
Preston
1.00
Luton
1.00
Charlton
1.00
Mansfield
1.00
Liverpool
1.17
Crystal Palace
1.25
Brentford
1.25
AFC Wimbledon
1.33
QPR
1.33
Leyton Orient
1.33
Arsenal
1.40
Doncaster
1.50
Sheffield United
1.50
Blackburn
1.50
Rotherham
1.50
Manchester City
1.50
Huddersfield
1.50
Wolves
1.50
Colchester
1.50
Aston Villa
1.50
Leicester
1.67
Brighton
1.67
Tottenham
1.80
Bristol Rvs
2.00
Salford
2.00
Southampton
2.00
Reading
2.00
Northampton
2.00
Cambridge
2.00
West Brom
2.00
Bromley
2.00
Manchester United
2.00
Hull
2.00
Chesterfield
2.00
Tranmere
2.00
Crewe
2.00
Peterboro
2.00
Bolton
2.00
Lincoln
2.00
Burnley
2.00
Sunderland
2.00
Ipswich
2.00
Barrow
2.33
Cardiff
2.50
West Ham
2.50
Shrewsbury
2.50
Middlesbrough
2.50
Barnet
2.54
Barnsley
2.67
Oldham
2.73
Cheltenham
3.00
Grimsby
3.00
Port Vale
3.00
Leeds
3.00
Crawley Town
3.00
Accrington
3.00
Notts County
3.00
Gillingham
3.00
Harrogate
3.00
Norwich
3.50
Wrexham
4.00
Burton
4.00
Stevenage
4.00
Swindon
4.00
Newport County
4.00
Milton Keynes Dons
5.00
Stockport
6.00
West Brom is 1.50 goals worse than Derby in terms of goals conceded per game (2.00 vs 0.50).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
West Brom
For 4.9 · Against 5.2 · Total 10.1
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.6 · Against 2.0 · Total 3.6
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.2 · Against 14.3 · Total 25.5
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Derby
For 4.4 · Against 4.8 · Total 9.2
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.2 · Against 1.3 · Total 3.5
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.8 · Against 9.7 · Total 22.5
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
West Brom
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.2
10.5
9.9
3.6
4.4
2.8
21.9
21.6
22.2
vs Stronger (5)
12.2
10.5
14.0
1.8
4.5
0.0
23.5
27.0
20.0
vs Similar (44)
10.0
10.5
9.5
3.9
4.4
3.4
21.7
21.1
22.4
vs Weaker (1)
-
-
-
0.0
-
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
52%
60%
43%
48%
64%
32%
58%
52%
65%
% under line
48%
40%
57%
52%
36%
68%
42%
48%
35%
This opponent (Derby) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Derby
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.1
10.3
10.0
3.2
3.1
3.3
21.4
21.3
21.5
vs Stronger (6)
11.8
11.7
12.0
2.3
2.3
2.3
19.3
19.3
19.3
vs Similar (43)
9.9
10.1
9.8
3.4
3.2
3.6
21.7
21.6
21.8
vs Weaker (1)
-
-
-
0.0
-
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
55%
57%
54%
42%
42%
42%
51%
48%
54%
% under line
45%
43%
46%
58%
58%
58%
49%
52%
46%
This opponent (West Brom) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Coventry
11.6
Tottenham
11.3
Sheffield Weds
11.3
Barnsley
11.2
Bournemouth
11.1
Newcastle
11.0
Huddersfield
11.0
Oldham
11.0
Brentford
11.0
Portsmouth
10.9
Harrogate
10.8
QPR
10.8
Luton
10.7
Sheffield United
10.6
Doncaster
10.6
Hull
10.6
Everton
10.5
Millwall
10.5
Bromley
10.5
Nottingham Forest
10.4
Liverpool
10.4
Oxford
10.4
Reading
10.4
West Brom
10.3
Barnet
10.3
Stoke
10.3
Leeds
10.3
Norwich
10.2
Crawley Town
10.2
Ipswich
10.2
Derby
10.2
Aston Villa
10.2
Peterboro
10.2
Southampton
10.1
Fulham
10.1
Crystal Palace
10.1
Bristol Rvs
10.0
Shrewsbury
10.0
Middlesbrough
10.0
Manchester City
10.0
Stevenage
10.0
Blackburn
9.9
Newport County
9.9
Bolton
9.9
West Ham
9.9
Cheltenham
9.9
Plymouth
9.9
Exeter
9.9
Brighton
9.8
Leicester
9.8
Watford
9.8
Rotherham
9.8
Manchester United
9.8
Chesterfield
9.8
Bristol City
9.8
Walsall
9.8
Blackpool
9.8
Crewe
9.8
Grimsby
9.7
Port Vale
9.7
Sunderland
9.7
Notts County
9.7
Swindon
9.7
Swansea
9.7
Arsenal
9.7
Barrow
9.6
Wolves
9.6
Chelsea
9.6
Fleetwood Town
9.6
Burton
9.6
Lincoln
9.5
Charlton
9.5
Mansfield
9.5
Cardiff
9.5
Wigan
9.4
Leyton Orient
9.4
Birmingham
9.4
Preston
9.3
Salford
9.3
Colchester
9.2
Burnley
9.2
Bradford
9.2
AFC Wimbledon
9.2
Cambridge
9.2
Wrexham
9.2
Wycombe
9.1
Northampton
9.1
Tranmere
9.1
Accrington
9.1
Milton Keynes Dons
8.5
Stockport
8.5
Gillingham
8.0
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Bolton
5.1
Bournemouth
4.9
Accrington
4.8
Bradford
4.8
Chelsea
4.8
Nottingham Forest
4.6
Gillingham
4.6
Aston Villa
4.5
Watford
4.5
Sunderland
4.5
Colchester
4.5
Salford
4.5
Brighton
4.4
Crewe
4.4
Manchester United
4.4
Newcastle
4.3
Wolves
4.3
Grimsby
4.3
Chesterfield
4.3
Barrow
4.3
Portsmouth
4.2
Tranmere
4.2
Cambridge
4.2
Luton
4.2
Stevenage
4.1
Crystal Palace
4.1
Crawley Town
4.1
Tottenham
4.1
Stockport
4.0
Norwich
4.0
Blackburn
4.0
Stoke
4.0
Preston
4.0
Port Vale
4.0
Exeter
4.0
Burnley
3.9
Lincoln
3.9
Liverpool
3.9
Oldham
3.9
Arsenal
3.9
Walsall
3.9
Brentford
3.9
Southampton
3.9
Charlton
3.9
Sheffield United
3.9
Bromley
3.9
Peterboro
3.9
AFC Wimbledon
3.9
QPR
3.9
Ipswich
3.9
Birmingham
3.8
Doncaster
3.8
Barnet
3.8
Fleetwood Town
3.8
Fulham
3.8
Shrewsbury
3.8
Burton
3.8
West Brom
3.8
West Ham
3.8
Notts County
3.8
Oxford
3.8
Manchester City
3.8
Wycombe
3.7
Leicester
3.7
Huddersfield
3.7
Sheffield Weds
3.7
Mansfield
3.7
Coventry
3.7
Wigan
3.7
Swansea
3.7
Barnsley
3.7
Middlesbrough
3.6
Milton Keynes Dons
3.6
Wrexham
3.6
Bristol Rvs
3.6
Northampton
3.6
Newport County
3.6
Cheltenham
3.6
Cardiff
3.5
Hull
3.5
Bristol City
3.5
Leyton Orient
3.5
Leeds
3.5
Everton
3.5
Plymouth
3.4
Blackpool
3.4
Swindon
3.4
Reading
3.4
Derby
3.3
Harrogate
3.3
Rotherham
3.2
Millwall
3.1
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Oldham
31.7
Bolton
25.5
Stevenage
25.4
Cheltenham
25.2
Birmingham
25.0
Accrington
25.0
Salford
25.0
Stockport
24.9
Cambridge
24.8
Exeter
24.8
Colchester
24.6
Wycombe
24.6
Crewe
24.6
Luton
24.5
Grimsby
24.4
Bradford
24.4
Bournemouth
24.3
Gillingham
24.3
Portsmouth
24.2
Wolves
24.1
Lincoln
24.0
Millwall
24.0
Milton Keynes Dons
24.0
Doncaster
24.0
Wigan
24.0
Preston
23.9
Blackburn
23.7
Southampton
23.7
Rotherham
23.7
Tottenham
23.6
Peterboro
23.6
Shrewsbury
23.5
Mansfield
23.5
Swansea
23.5
Sunderland
23.4
Sheffield Weds
23.4
Charlton
23.3
Barnet
23.3
AFC Wimbledon
23.3
Aston Villa
23.1
Brighton
23.0
Watford
23.0
Burnley
23.0
Reading
23.0
QPR
23.0
Blackpool
22.9
Tranmere
22.9
Leeds
22.8
Plymouth
22.8
Newport County
22.7
Huddersfield
22.6
Cardiff
22.6
Ipswich
22.6
Northampton
22.6
Fleetwood Town
22.5
Barrow
22.5
Norwich
22.5
Crawley Town
22.5
Newcastle
22.4
Port Vale
22.3
Bristol Rvs
22.3
West Ham
22.2
Chesterfield
22.1
Hull
22.1
Chelsea
22.0
Sheffield United
22.0
Harrogate
21.9
West Brom
21.8
Leicester
21.8
Manchester United
21.7
Wrexham
21.7
Crystal Palace
21.7
Walsall
21.6
Notts County
21.6
Everton
21.6
Nottingham Forest
21.6
Oxford
21.5
Swindon
21.5
Middlesbrough
21.5
Bromley
21.5
Burton
21.5
Leyton Orient
21.3
Derby
21.3
Stoke
21.3
Coventry
21.3
Barnsley
21.2
Bristol City
21.0
Arsenal
21.0
Fulham
20.9
Liverpool
20.9
Brentford
18.9
Manchester City
17.1
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
61.9%
Under 9.5
38.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
22.0%
Under 3.5
78.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Under
Over 21.5
52.3%
Under 21.5
47.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
West Brom or Draw✓ Hit
67.7%
Avg Implied -
38%
30%
32%
covers West Brom + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
West Brom or Derby✗ Miss
70.5%
Avg Implied -
38%
30%
32%
covers West Brom + Derby
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Derby✓ Hit
61.8%
Avg Implied -
38%
30%
32%
covers Draw + Derby
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
West Brom over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
73.0%
Under
27.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
West Brom over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
37.6%
Under
62.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
West Brom over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
14.5%
Under
85.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
West Brom over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
4.4%
Under
95.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Derby over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
69.4%
Under
30.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Derby over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
33.2%
Under
66.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Derby over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
11.7%
Under
88.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Derby over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
3.2%
Under
96.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to West Brom, so a minus line means West Brom give that many goals of a start and Derby receive them. At -1, West Brom must win by two or more to land; a one-goal West Brom win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (West Brom)Actual: Derby
West Brom -2
6.3%
Draw -2
11.5%
Derby +2
82.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (West Brom)Actual: Derby
West Brom -1
17.8%
Draw -1
20.4%
Derby +1
61.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (West Brom)Actual: West Brom
West Brom +1
67.7%
Draw +1
18.3%
Derby -1
13.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (West Brom)Actual: West Brom
West Brom +2
86.1%
Draw +2
9.4%
Derby -2
4.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
West Brom
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.60
1.12
0.44
0.36
0.79
vs Stronger (3)
0.67
1.67
0.00
1.00
1.00
2.00
vs Similar (27)
0.78
0.48
1.20
0.40
0.25
0.58
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
53% (+29pp vs league)
This opponent (Derby) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Derby
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.6
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.40
0.40
0.50
0.29
0.31
0.50
vs Stronger (4)
0.25
0.75
0.33
0.33
0.00
2.00
vs Similar (26)
0.42
0.35
0.55
0.27
0.33
0.40
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
67% (+42pp vs league)
This opponent (West Brom) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
West Brom over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
West Brom over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
West Brom over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Derby over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Derby over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Derby over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
West Brom
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.73
0.75
0.62
0.36
0.86
vs Stronger (3)
0.00
0.67
0.00
0.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (27)
0.63
0.74
0.80
0.67
0.42
0.83
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Derby) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Derby
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.80
0.36
0.36
0.69
1.19
vs Stronger (4)
0.25
0.25
0.33
0.33
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (26)
0.58
0.88
0.36
0.36
0.73
1.27
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (West Brom) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
West Brom over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
West Brom over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
West Brom over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Derby over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Derby over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Derby over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 7.5
99.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
98.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
96.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards
96.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
95.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
95.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 4.5 cards
90.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 4.5
89.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
88.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
86.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 goals
85.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away +2 handicap
82.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 25.5 fouls
78.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 3.5 cards
78.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 3.5
75.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 8.5 corners
73.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home over 0.5 goals
73.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
72.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home or Away
70.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
West Brom
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Aune Selland Heggebø17%
Isaac Price14%
Josh Maja14%
Karlan Grant14%
Jed Wallace12%
Oliver Bostock11%
George Campbell10%
Daryl Dike8%
Nathaniel Phillips7%
Daniel Imray6%
Michael Johnston5%
Jayson Molumby5%
Samuel Iling Junior4%
Chris Mepham4%
Ousmane Diakité3%
Alex Mowatt2%
Charlie Taylor0%
Max O'Leary0%
Joe Wildsmith0%
Darnell Furlong0%
Callum Styles0%
Krystian Bielik0%
Joshua Griffiths0%
Tom Fellows0%
Toby Collyer0%
Alfie Gilchrist0%
Tammer Bany0%
Harry Whitwell0%
Jamaldeen Jimoh0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Darnell Furlong33%
Chris Mepham27%
Callum Styles26%
Tammer Bany25%
Ousmane Diakité21%
Alex Mowatt20%
George Campbell20%
Daniel Imray18%
Krystian Bielik16%
Nathaniel Phillips15%
Charlie Taylor14%
Jayson Molumby12%
Michael Johnston11%
Karlan Grant10%
Isaac Price8%
Daryl Dike8%
Aune Selland Heggebø4%
Samuel Iling Junior4%
Jed Wallace4%
Josh Maja2%
Max O'Leary0%
Joe Wildsmith0%
Joshua Griffiths0%
Tom Fellows0%
Toby Collyer0%
Alfie Gilchrist0%
Harry Whitwell0%
Jamaldeen Jimoh0%
Oliver Bostock0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Michael Johnston19%
Daniel Imray12%
Oliver Bostock11%
Alex Mowatt10%
Jamaldeen Jimoh9%
Aune Selland Heggebø8%
Toby Collyer8%
Jed Wallace8%
Callum Styles6%
Isaac Price6%
Krystian Bielik5%
Jayson Molumby5%
George Campbell5%
Daryl Dike4%
Ousmane Diakité3%
Josh Maja2%
Chris Mepham0%
Charlie Taylor0%
Karlan Grant0%
Max O'Leary0%
Joe Wildsmith0%
Darnell Furlong0%
Nathaniel Phillips0%
Samuel Iling Junior0%
Joshua Griffiths0%
Tom Fellows0%
Alfie Gilchrist0%
Tammer Bany0%
Harry Whitwell0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Isaac Price27%
Aune Selland Heggebø17%
Michael Johnston16%
Ousmane Diakité8%
Karlan Grant7%
Nathaniel Phillips5%
Josh Maja5%
Samuel Iling Junior4%
Jed Wallace4%
Jayson Molumby2%
Alex Mowatt2%
Chris Mepham0%
Charlie Taylor0%
Max O'Leary0%
Joe Wildsmith0%
Darnell Furlong0%
Callum Styles0%
Krystian Bielik0%
George Campbell0%
Daniel Imray0%
Daryl Dike0%
Joshua Griffiths0%
Tom Fellows0%
Toby Collyer0%
Alfie Gilchrist0%
Tammer Bany0%
Harry Whitwell0%
Jamaldeen Jimoh0%
Oliver Bostock0%
Derby
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Carlton Morris32%
Patrick Agyemang24%
Sammie Szmodics23%
Rhian Brewster23%
Jaydon Banel21%
Ben Brereton Díaz17%
Sondre Langås12%
Lars-Jørgen Salvesen9%
Bobby Clark9%
Matthew Clarke7%
David Ozoh6%
Liam Thompson6%
Oscar Fraulo5%
Joe Ward5%
Craig Forsyth5%
Ebou Adams4%
Andreas Weimann4%
Callum Elder3%
Dion Sanderson2%
Josh Vickers0%
Ryan Nyambe0%
Lewis Travis0%
Danny Batth0%
Kayden Jackson0%
Corey Blackett-Taylor0%
Richard O'Donnell0%
Kenzo Goudmijn0%
Derry Murkin0%
Jacob Widell Zetterström0%
Max Johnston0%
Dajaune Brown0%
Cruz Allen0%
Owen Eames0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Lewis Travis39%
Sammie Szmodics38%
Ebou Adams35%
Callum Elder30%
Liam Thompson28%
Dion Sanderson20%
Oscar Fraulo20%
David Ozoh20%
Matthew Clarke20%
Ben Brereton Díaz20%
Bobby Clark18%
Carlton Morris16%
Sondre Langås16%
Patrick Agyemang16%
Ryan Nyambe14%
Josh Vickers11%
Kayden Jackson10%
Lars-Jørgen Salvesen9%
Craig Forsyth9%
Danny Batth8%
Derry Murkin8%
Andreas Weimann7%
Joe Ward7%
Jaydon Banel7%
Max Johnston7%
Rhian Brewster3%
Jacob Widell Zetterström3%
Corey Blackett-Taylor0%
Richard O'Donnell0%
Kenzo Goudmijn0%
Dajaune Brown0%
Cruz Allen0%
Owen Eames0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Callum Elder20%
Joe Ward20%
Derry Murkin17%
Andreas Weimann11%
Corey Blackett-Taylor10%
Matthew Clarke9%
Patrick Agyemang8%
Sammie Szmodics8%
Ben Brereton Díaz7%
Max Johnston7%
Bobby Clark7%
Rhian Brewster6%
Carlton Morris6%
Lars-Jørgen Salvesen6%
Sondre Langås4%
Lewis Travis4%
Josh Vickers0%
Ebou Adams0%
Craig Forsyth0%
Ryan Nyambe0%
Danny Batth0%
Kayden Jackson0%
Richard O'Donnell0%
Kenzo Goudmijn0%
Jacob Widell Zetterström0%
Dion Sanderson0%
Liam Thompson0%
Oscar Fraulo0%
Dajaune Brown0%
David Ozoh0%
Jaydon Banel0%
Cruz Allen0%
Owen Eames0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Patrick Agyemang18%
Carlton Morris10%
Sammie Szmodics8%
Ben Brereton Díaz5%
Matthew Clarke4%
Sondre Langås4%
Rhian Brewster3%
Bobby Clark2%
Lars-Jørgen Salvesen0%
Josh Vickers0%
Ebou Adams0%
Craig Forsyth0%
Andreas Weimann0%
Ryan Nyambe0%
Lewis Travis0%
Danny Batth0%
Callum Elder0%
Kayden Jackson0%
Joe Ward0%
Corey Blackett-Taylor0%
Richard O'Donnell0%
Kenzo Goudmijn0%
Derry Murkin0%
Jacob Widell Zetterström0%
Dion Sanderson0%
Liam Thompson0%
Oscar Fraulo0%
Max Johnston0%
Dajaune Brown0%
David Ozoh0%
Jaydon Banel0%
Cruz Allen0%
Owen Eames0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CHE (39)
€1407m
ARS (29)
€1406m
MC (27)
€1326m
LIV (29)
€980m
MU (30)
€929m
TOT (36)
€920m
BHA (30)
€620m
BOU (31)
€573m
NEW (25)
€568m
BRE (32)
€565m
NFO (28)
€551m
AVL (27)
€536m
CRY (29)
€505m
EVE (24)
€459m
LEE (27)
€427m
SUN (30)
€392m
FUL (21)
€329m
IPS (31)
€280m
WHU (24)
€274m
WOL (31)
€273m
COV (27)
€237m
SOU (30)
€205m
MID (29)
€142m
BUR (28)
€115m
SHU (27)
€110m
NOR (34)
€107m
HUL (27)
€105m
BIR (26)
€93m
SWA (27)
€91m
WAT (22)
€88m
MIL (29)
€85m
STK (25)
€79m
WRE (32)
€77m
QPR (28)
€71m
LEI (22)
€69m
BRC (25)
€66m
DER (25)
€57m
WBA (22)
€52m
PRE (20)
€43m
BLB (27)
€36m
POR (30)
€32m
CHA (29)
€31m
CAR (25)
€29m
LUT (26)
€29m
SHW (24)
€21m
OXF (24)
€20m
BOL (22)
€17m
HUD (26)
€16m
MKD (24)
€15m
PLY (25)
€13m
LIN (24)
€12m
BLA (22)
€11m
LO (23)
€10m
STO (25)
€10m
WYC (24)
€10m
REA (20)
€10m
SAL (26)
€8m
BAR (21)
€8m
WIG (21)
€7m
PET (23)
€7m
BRA (21)
€7m
STE (21)
€7m
PV (23)
€7m
DON (23)
€7m
MAN (23)
€6m
NC (24)
€6m
CHE (24)
€6m
AW (21)
€5m
BR (24)
€5m
CAM (20)
€5m
BUR (17)
€5m
ROT (19)
€5m
CRE (20)
€4m
BRO (19)
€4m
BAR (15)
€4m
SWI (22)
€4m
GRI (18)
€4m
TRA (21)
€4m
COL (20)
€4m
SHR (17)
€3m
CT (19)
€3m
NOR (18)
€3m
GIL (16)
€3m
CHE (19)
€3m
EXE (15)
€3m
WAL (20)
€3m
OLD (21)
€3m
FT (18)
€3m
ACC (18)
€2m
NC (16)
€2m
BAR (11)
€2m
HAR (14)
€1m
West Brom's squad is €4m less valuable than Derby's (€52m vs €57m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MC (9)
€635m
CHE (13)
€614m
ARS (13)
€608m
LIV (9)
€518m
MU (11)
€432m
BOU (11)
€285m
NFO (9)
€263m
TOT (12)
€250m
NEW (7)
€234m
CRY (11)
€229m
BRE (10)
€228m
AVL (10)
€220m
BHA (9)
€190m
FUL (9)
€178m
EVE (7)
€174m
LEE (11)
€166m
SUN (9)
€157m
IPS (11)
€130m
COV (8)
€85m
WHU (7)
€84m
WOL (11)
€79m
MID (12)
€74m
SOU (10)
€72m
BUR (14)
€70m
SWA (13)
€56m
NOR (10)
€46m
BIR (9)
€46m
STK (8)
€35m
MIL (10)
€30m
QPR (11)
€29m
SHU (9)
€29m
BRC (8)
€29m
WAT (6)
€28m
DER (8)
€25m
HUL (7)
€22m
LEI (7)
€20m
CHA (13)
€18m
PRE (6)
€17m
CAR (12)
€15m
BLB (8)
€15m
WRE (9)
€15m
WBA (7)
€15m
POR (12)
€13m
LUT (10)
€13m
SHW (6)
€7m
OXF (8)
€6m
MKD (8)
€5m
PLY (8)
€4m
LO (6)
€4m
BLA (8)
€4m
HUD (7)
€4m
BOL (6)
€4m
STO (8)
€3m
LIN (7)
€3m
REA (6)
€3m
BRA (9)
€3m
PET (8)
€3m
CHE (9)
€3m
SAL (9)
€3m
WYC (7)
€3m
NC (7)
€2m
AW (8)
€2m
STE (6)
€2m
BR (10)
€2m
CAM (9)
€2m
WIG (8)
€2m
ROT (6)
€2m
SWI (8)
€2m
CRE (6)
€2m
PV (5)
€2m
CT (7)
€2m
DON (6)
€2m
BAR (5)
€2m
COL (7)
€1m
BUR (6)
€1m
MAN (6)
€1m
GRI (8)
€1m
EXE (5)
€1m
TRA (7)
€1m
OLD (7)
€1m
BRO (5)
€1m
CHE (5)
€1m
GIL (4)
€1m
ACC (7)
€1m
NOR (5)
€1m
FT (6)
€1m
WAL (4)
€1m
BAR (2)
€0m
BAR (3)
€0m
SHR (3)
€0m
NC (3)
€0m
HAR (4)
€0m
West Brom's attack is €10m less valuable than Derby's (€15m vs €25m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ARS (4)
€290m
TOT (7)
€282m
CHE (6)
€278m
MU (7)
€236m
LIV (6)
€201m
BHA (7)
€180m
EVE (7)
€162m
MC (3)
€160m
AVL (6)
€160m
BRE (7)
€128m
NEW (6)
€124m
SUN (6)
€110m
BOU (6)
€106m
LEE (5)
€98m
CRY (5)
€93m
WOL (6)
€79m
IPS (7)
€66m
SOU (5)
€53m
COV (6)
€52m
NFO (4)
€52m
WHU (5)
€48m
WAT (6)
€38m
SHU (5)
€32m
NOR (11)
€31m
HUL (8)
€31m
MIL (8)
€29m
FUL (3)
€28m
MID (5)
€27m
WRE (9)
€23m
WBA (6)
€22m
BRC (6)
€19m
QPR (5)
€15m
DER (6)
€14m
LEI (4)
€13m
BIR (5)
€12m
STK (6)
€11m
SWA (4)
€9m
BUR (3)
€8m
MKD (6)
€7m
BLB (7)
€7m
SHW (5)
€6m
OXF (4)
€6m
POR (5)
€5m
LUT (6)
€4m
BOL (4)
€4m
HUD (6)
€4m
CAR (3)
€4m
CHA (3)
€3m
MAN (5)
€3m
LO (8)
€3m
PRE (3)
€3m
REA (5)
€3m
STO (6)
€3m
BAR (7)
€3m
BLA (5)
€3m
PLY (6)
€3m
WIG (8)
€2m
WYC (5)
€2m
PV (7)
€2m
SAL (5)
€2m
DON (6)
€2m
NC (7)
€2m
LIN (4)
€2m
STE (6)
€2m
GIL (8)
€2m
BUR (4)
€1m
PET (5)
€1m
BRO (6)
€1m
SHR (4)
€1m
CHE (6)
€1m
TRA (6)
€1m
CRE (7)
€1m
BRA (3)
€1m
SWI (7)
€1m
CHE (5)
€1m
FT (4)
€1m
ROT (5)
€1m
AW (5)
€1m
EXE (5)
€1m
OLD (7)
€1m
CT (7)
€1m
BAR (5)
€1m
WAL (5)
€1m
BAR (4)
€1m
CAM (3)
€1m
ACC (5)
€1m
NOR (3)
€1m
HAR (4)
€1m
BR (4)
€0m
COL (3)
€0m
NC (3)
€0m
GRI (1)
€0m
West Brom's midfield is €9m more valuable than Derby's (€22m vs €14m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MC (15)
€531m
CHE (20)
€514m
ARS (12)
€508m
TOT (17)
€388m
MU (12)
€261m
LIV (14)
€260m
BHA (14)
€249m
NFO (15)
€236m
NEW (12)
€210m
BRE (15)
€209m
CRY (13)
€182m
BOU (14)
€182m
LEE (11)
€163m
AVL (11)
€156m
WHU (12)
€141m
SUN (15)
€125m
EVE (10)
€123m
FUL (9)
€123m
WOL (14)
€116m
COV (13)
€99m
IPS (13)
€85m
SOU (15)
€79m
HUL (12)
€52m
SHU (13)
€49m
MID (12)
€41m
WRE (14)
€39m
BUR (11)
€37m
LEI (11)
€36m
BIR (12)
€35m
STK (11)
€32m
NOR (13)
€29m
QPR (12)
€27m
SWA (10)
€26m
MIL (11)
€25m
PRE (11)
€22m
WAT (10)
€22m
BRC (11)
€18m
DER (11)
€18m
WBA (9)
€15m
POR (13)
€14m
BLB (12)
€14m
LUT (10)
€12m
CHA (13)
€10m
CAR (10)
€10m
BOL (12)
€9m
OXF (12)
€8m
SHW (13)
€8m
HUD (13)
€8m
LIN (13)
€6m
PLY (11)
€6m
WYC (12)
€5m
BLA (9)
€4m
STO (11)
€4m
REA (9)
€4m
BAR (9)
€3m
PV (11)
€3m
LO (9)
€3m
STE (9)
€3m
DON (11)
€3m
SAL (12)
€3m
MKD (10)
€3m
PET (10)
€3m
BRA (9)
€3m
BAR (9)
€3m
WIG (5)
€3m
BR (10)
€3m
GRI (9)
€2m
CAM (8)
€2m
AW (8)
€2m
BUR (7)
€2m
CHE (10)
€2m
NC (10)
€2m
MAN (12)
€2m
NOR (10)
€2m
BRO (8)
€2m
ROT (8)
€2m
COL (10)
€2m
WAL (11)
€2m
SHR (10)
€2m
CRE (7)
€1m
NC (10)
€1m
TRA (8)
€1m
FT (8)
€1m
ACC (6)
€1m
EXE (5)
€1m
OLD (7)
€1m
CHE (8)
€1m
SWI (7)
€1m
GIL (4)
€1m
CT (5)
€1m
BAR (3)
€1m
HAR (6)
€0m
West Brom's defence is €3m less valuable than Derby's (€15m vs €18m).
England: Championship 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full England: Championship stats & trends →
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Coventry
Ipswich
Millwall
Southampton
Middlesbrough
Hull
Wrexham
Norwich
Birmingham
Swansea
Bristol City
Sheffield United
Preston
QPR
Watford
Stoke
Portsmouth
Charlton
Leicester
Blackburn
Oxford
Sheffield Weds