West Ham are clear favourites to win at home against Charlton, with a 64% probability of taking all three points. This is largely due to Charlton's poor away form, particularly against stronger opponents, where they average just one goal scored and 1.5 conceded. West Ham, on the other hand, are a formidable force at home, boasting an impressive average of four goals scored and none conceded.
The expected total number of goals is 2.9, with a most likely total of 2. The most likely score is 2-0 to West Ham, with a probability of 11.4%. Charlton's away form does not bode well for them, and West Ham's home form suggests they will take advantage of their opponent's weakness. The model's selection is a Home win, with the model also suggesting a Home or Draw, Over 1.5 goals, and Home or Away. The probabilities for these selections are 88.0%, 79.7%, and 79.6% respectively. West Ham are 64% likely to win, Charlton 14% likely to win, and a draw 22% likely.
Results analysis
The upset came early as West Ham, the pre-match favourite with a 63 % chance of victory, fell to a 1-2 defeat. The model’s call was wrong. The final score of 1-2 gave Charlton an away win, a result that matched the model’s prediction of an away win, but the favourite was not correct. Every suggested pick was settled: Away under 3.5 goals hit at 99 %, Away under 2.5 HT goals hit at 98.9 %, Under 7.5 hit at 98.8 %, Away under 2.5 2H goals hit at 96.7 %, Under 6.5 hit at 96.5 %, Home +2 handicap hit at 96.1 %, Away under 2.5 goals hit at 94.8 %, and Away under 1.5 HT goals hit at 94.5 %. West Ham’s recent form shows a streak of LDWLL and a loss to Charlton, while Charlton came off a two-game winning run.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
West Ham win✗ Miss
63.1%
Avg Implied 68.0% · @ 1.38
Edge
-4.9%
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.44
Dafabet
1.41
Superbet
1.41
William Hil
1.40
Pinnacle
1.40
Draw✗ Miss
22.3%
Avg Implied 19.7% · @ 4.75
Edge
+2.6%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
5.12
Dafabet
5.00
Unibet
4.80
1xBet
4.80
Marathonbet
4.80
Charlton win✓ Hit
14.6%
Avg Implied 12.3% · @ 7.62
Edge
+2.3%
Best 5 market prices
10Bet
8.70
BetVictor
8.00
888Sport
8.00
Betfair
8.00
Pinnacle
7.60
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
West Ham
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.33
1.50
1.69
1.19
0.93
1.86
vs Stronger (5)
1.00
2.60
0.50
1.00
1.33
3.67
vs Similar (22)
1.41
1.36
1.83
1.25
0.90
1.50
vs Weaker (3)
1.33
0.67
2.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
23% (-5pp vs league)
This opponent (Charlton) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Charlton
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.03
1.33
0.94
1.31
1.14
1.36
vs Stronger (7)
1.00
1.43
0.75
2.25
1.33
0.33
vs Similar (22)
0.95
1.32
1.00
1.00
0.90
1.70
vs Weaker (1)
3.00
1.00
-
-
3.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
23% (-5pp vs league)
This opponent (West Ham) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.9 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (24%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
80.1%
@ 1.20+2.4%
Under 1.5
19.9%
@ 4.20-2.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.24
Superbet
1.23
Betano
1.23
Bet365
1.22
BetVictor
1.22
Under
Unibet
4.60
10Bet
4.33
Bet365
4.33
Betfair
4.33
Pinnacle
4.26
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
56.3%
@ 1.68-0.1%
Under 2.5
43.7%
@ 2.16+0.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
1.73
Betano
1.72
Superbet
1.71
Pinnacle
1.71
1xBet
1.67
Under
Unibet
2.23
Pinnacle
2.22
10Bet
2.20
Bet365
2.20
Betano
2.18
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
33.9%
@ 2.69-1.0%
Under 3.5
66.1%
@ 1.44+1.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
2.88
Pinnacle
2.81
Superbet
2.77
Bet365
2.75
Betano
2.75
Under
10Bet
1.48
Unibet
1.47
Betano
1.47
Pinnacle
1.46
Superbet
1.45
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
52.4%
@ 1.89+3.3%
No
47.6%
@ 1.83-3.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Betfair
2.00
Superbet
1.95
10Bet
1.95
BetVictor
1.90
Betano
1.88
No
Unibet
1.87
Betano
1.85
888Sport
1.85
William Hil
1.85
1xBet
1.83
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-0
11.1%@ 6.45+4.1%
1-1
10.6%@ 8.56+5.4%
2-1
9.9%@ 7.67+4.0%
1-0
9.9%@ 6.75+3.2%
3-0
7.5%@ 8.74+2.4%
3-1
6.7%@ 10.67+2.5%
0-0
6.3%@ 12.62+2.7%
2-2
4.4%@ 17.63+1.9%
West Ham goals ↓
Charlton goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
6.3%
3.8%
2.1%
0.6%
0.1%
1
9.9%
11%
4.3%
1.3%
0.3%
2
11%
9.9%
4.4%
1.3%
0.3%
3
7.5%
6.7%
3.0%
0.9%
0.2%
4
3.9%
3.4%
1.5%
0.5%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = West Ham goals (down), columns = Charlton goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
West Ham
1.92
Wolves
1.90
Millwall
1.75
Burnley
1.72
Southampton
1.71
Middlesbrough
1.67
Wrexham
1.54
Derby
1.50
Norwich
1.41
Birmingham
1.39
Swansea
1.39
Bristol City
1.35
Sheffield United
1.30
Preston
1.30
Cardiff
1.30
QPR
1.26
Watford
1.24
Stoke
1.20
Portsmouth
1.20
West Brom
1.15
Charlton
1.15
Blackburn
1.13
Bolton
1.00
Lincoln
0.94
West Ham is 0.76 points better than Charlton in terms of average points per game (1.92 vs 1.15).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
West Ham
1.82
Wolves
1.81
Southampton
1.73
Burnley
1.63
Wrexham
1.50
Middlesbrough
1.49
Derby
1.46
Sheffield United
1.43
Norwich
1.37
Millwall
1.33
QPR
1.33
Bristol City
1.28
Birmingham
1.24
Swansea
1.24
Cardiff
1.23
Preston
1.20
Watford
1.15
Stoke
1.11
Portsmouth
1.07
West Brom
1.04
Charlton
0.96
Bolton
0.95
Blackburn
0.91
Lincoln
0.89
West Ham is 0.86 goals better than Charlton in terms of goals scored per game (1.82 vs 0.96).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
West Ham
0.92
Wolves
0.93
Middlesbrough
1.00
Burnley
1.03
Millwall
1.06
Southampton
1.19
Birmingham
1.22
Blackburn
1.22
Norwich
1.22
Stoke
1.22
West Brom
1.26
Charlton
1.26
Bristol City
1.28
Swansea
1.28
Derby
1.28
Preston
1.35
Cardiff
1.36
Portsmouth
1.39
Wrexham
1.41
Watford
1.41
Sheffield United
1.43
QPR
1.59
Bolton
1.77
Lincoln
1.87
West Ham is 0.34 goals better than Charlton in terms of goals conceded per game (0.92 vs 1.26).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Middlesbrough
59%
Southampton
56%
Swansea
55%
Birmingham
54%
Norwich
54%
Sheffield United
52%
Stoke
52%
West Brom
52%
Watford
51%
Portsmouth
50%
Bristol City
49%
Wrexham
48%
Blackburn
48%
Millwall
48%
QPR
46%
Preston
46%
Derby
44%
Charlton
42%
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
West Ham
For 4.4 · Against 4.6 · Total 9.0
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.2 · Against 2.2 · Total 4.4
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.1 · Against 11.5 · Total 23.6
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Charlton
For 4.4 · Against 6.9 · Total 11.3
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.4 · Against 1.7 · Total 3.1
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.6 · Against 10.1 · Total 21.7
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
West Ham
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
11.0
10.9
11.1
3.8
4.1
3.5
22.4
23.3
21.4
vs Stronger (8)
11.0
11.0
11.0
3.5
3.5
3.5
23.6
22.0
25.2
vs Similar (39)
10.8
10.8
10.8
3.8
4.2
3.5
21.7
22.7
20.6
vs Weaker (3)
14.3
12.0
19.0
4.7
5.0
4.0
28.0
31.0
22.0
% over line
64%
60%
68%
54%
52%
56%
50%
52%
48%
% under line
36%
40%
32%
46%
48%
44%
50%
48%
52%
This opponent (Charlton) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Charlton
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.6
9.4
9.8
3.5
3.6
3.4
21.6
21.0
22.2
vs Stronger (13)
10.5
9.4
11.7
3.4
3.7
3.0
19.8
21.4
18.0
vs Similar (35)
9.4
9.3
9.5
3.5
3.6
3.5
22.3
20.9
23.8
vs Weaker (2)
6.0
-
6.0
3.5
-
3.5
20.5
-
20.5
% over line
44%
48%
40%
46%
48%
44%
48%
48%
48%
% under line
56%
52%
60%
54%
52%
56%
52%
52%
52%
This opponent (West Ham) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Sheffield United
11.5
Southampton
11.0
West Ham
11.0
Millwall
10.8
Middlesbrough
10.8
Portsmouth
10.8
Preston
10.7
Stoke
10.7
Cardiff
10.7
Blackburn
10.5
Norwich
10.4
Birmingham
10.3
Wrexham
10.3
Watford
10.2
QPR
10.2
Bolton
10.1
Bristol City
10.0
Swansea
10.0
Derby
9.9
Charlton
9.6
Wolves
9.5
Burnley
9.4
West Brom
9.3
Lincoln
9.1
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Watford
4.5
Derby
4.1
Lincoln
4.1
Sheffield United
4.0
Swansea
4.0
Southampton
4.0
Stoke
3.9
Portsmouth
3.9
Blackburn
3.9
Bristol City
3.9
Norwich
3.8
West Ham
3.8
Wolves
3.7
QPR
3.7
Bolton
3.7
Birmingham
3.7
Charlton
3.6
Middlesbrough
3.6
Millwall
3.5
Wrexham
3.5
Cardiff
3.5
West Brom
3.4
Preston
3.4
Burnley
3.2
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Wolves
23.3
Lincoln
22.9
Derby
22.6
Swansea
22.5
Bolton
22.4
West Ham
22.4
Southampton
22.3
Portsmouth
22.1
Birmingham
22.0
Charlton
21.6
Sheffield United
21.5
Middlesbrough
21.4
Norwich
21.3
Watford
21.2
Blackburn
21.2
Bristol City
21.1
Cardiff
20.8
QPR
20.8
Millwall
20.6
Stoke
20.6
West Brom
20.5
Burnley
20.3
Preston
20.1
Wrexham
19.4
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
58.8%
@ 1.58+0.1%
Under 9.5
41.2%
@ 2.24-0.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.62
Betfair
1.60
1xBet
1.59
Superbet
1.59
Betano
1.55
Under
Betano
2.35
Pinnacle
2.28
Unibet
2.25
Superbet
2.22
Betfair
2.20
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
50.4%
@ 2.21+8.4%
Under 3.5
49.6%
@ 1.60-8.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.32
Superbet
2.32
Unibet
2.20
Betano
2.20
1xBet
2.10
Under
Bet365
1.67
1xBet
1.67
Betano
1.62
Pinnacle
1.57
Unibet
1.57
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
57.0%
Under 21.5
43.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
West Ham or Draw✗ Miss
88.0%
Avg Implied 87.1% · @ 1.08
Edge
+0.9%
63%
22%
15%
covers West Ham + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.12
William Hil
1.11
Bet365
1.10
BetVictor
1.10
Superbet
1.09
West Ham or Charlton✓ Hit
79.6%
Avg Implied 80.9% · @ 1.16
Edge
-1.4%
63%
22%
15%
covers West Ham + Charlton
Best 5 market prices
Superbet
1.19
Betano
1.19
888Sport
1.18
Bet365
1.18
William Hil
1.18
Draw or Charlton✓ Hit
32.4%
Avg Implied 32.0% · @ 2.94
Edge
+0.5%
63%
22%
15%
covers Draw + Charlton
Best 5 market prices
10Bet
3.10
888Sport
3.10
SBO
3.02
Betfair
3.00
Unibet
2.95
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
West Ham over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
88.8%
@ 1.08+2.2%
Under
11.2%
@ 6.97-2.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.11
Bet365
1.10
Superbet
1.09
888Sport
1.08
BetVictor
1.07
Under
888Sport
7.50
Betfair
7.50
1xBet
7.20
BetVictor
7.00
Bet365
7.00
West Ham over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
64.4%
@ 1.47+1.0%
Under
35.6%
@ 2.55-1.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.52
Bet365
1.50
Superbet
1.50
1xBet
1.49
Pinnacle
1.49
Under
Unibet
2.65
10Bet
2.62
Pinnacle
2.61
888Sport
2.60
Betfair
2.55
West Ham over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
37.6%
@ 2.51+0.3%
Under
62.4%
@ 1.49-0.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.65
Bet365
2.62
Betfair
2.55
1xBet
2.52
Marathonbet
2.52
Under
10Bet
1.53
Pinnacle
1.51
Betano
1.50
Unibet
1.50
888Sport
1.50
West Ham over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
17.9%
@ 4.92-1.0%
Under
82.1%
@ 1.15+1.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
5.50
Bet365
5.50
BetVictor
5.00
1xBet
4.95
Marathonbet
4.95
Under
Betano
1.17
10Bet
1.17
888Sport
1.17
Superbet
1.16
Unibet
1.15
Charlton over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
56.5%
@ 1.72+2.4%
Under
43.5%
@ 2.03-2.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.80
10Bet
1.77
Betfair
1.75
888Sport
1.75
Superbet
1.74
Under
Bet365
2.10
Unibet
2.08
Betano
2.07
Pinnacle
2.07
BetVictor
2.05
Charlton over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
20.3%
@ 4.62+0.1%
Under
79.7%
@ 1.17-0.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
5.20
888Sport
4.80
10Bet
4.75
BetVictor
4.75
Marathonbet
4.70
Under
Betano
1.21
Bet365
1.20
1xBet
1.17
Superbet
1.17
Marathonbet
1.17
Charlton over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
5.2%
@ 13.88-1.7%
Under
94.8%
@ 1.03+1.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
888Sport
17.00
Bet365
15.00
Superbet
14.00
Betano
9.50
Under
Betano
1.04
Bet365
1.03
888Sport
1.02
Superbet
1.02
Charlton over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
1.0%
@ 50.50-99.0%
Under
99.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
51.00
Superbet
50.00
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to West Ham, so a minus line means West Ham give that many goals of a start and Charlton receive them. At -1, West Ham must win by two or more to land; a one-goal West Ham win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (West Ham)Actual: Charlton
West Ham -2
24.0%
@ 3.64-0.7%
Draw -2
20.6%
@ 4.05-1.6%
Charlton +2
55.4%
@ 1.70+2.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
4.00
Betfair
3.75
Superbet
3.60
Marathonbet
3.58
Unibet
3.50
Draw
Bet365
4.33
Marathonbet
4.20
Superbet
4.00
Betfair
4.00
10Bet
3.90
Away
10Bet
1.75
Unibet
1.71
Superbet
1.69
Marathonbet
1.69
Betfair
1.67
Handicap -1 (West Ham)Actual: Charlton
West Ham -1
44.6%
@ 2.05+0.7%
Draw -1
22.9%
@ 3.56-2.4%
Charlton +1
32.4%
@ 2.93+1.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
2.20
Marathonbet
2.10
Superbet
2.05
Betfair
2.00
Unibet
2.00
Draw
Bet365
3.75
Betfair
3.60
Superbet
3.55
10Bet
3.50
Unibet
3.50
Away
10Bet
3.10
Betfair
3.00
Unibet
2.95
Marathonbet
2.93
Superbet
2.85
Handicap +1 (West Ham)Actual: Draw
West Ham +1
88.0%
@ 1.07+3.4%
Draw +1
8.1%
@ 8.88-2.1%
Charlton -1
3.9%
@ 17.50-1.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.10
Unibet
1.07
10Bet
1.06
Betfair
1.06
Draw
Betfair
9.50
Bet365
9.50
Unibet
8.50
10Bet
8.00
Away
10Bet
19.00
Betfair
19.00
Bet365
17.00
Unibet
15.00
Handicap +2 (West Ham)Actual: West Ham
West Ham +2
96.1%
@ 1.01+2.1%
Draw +2
3.0%
@ 22.00-1.4%
Charlton -2
0.9%
@ 58.50-0.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.02
Betfair
1.01
Draw
Betfair
23.00
Bet365
21.00
Away
Betfair
76.00
Bet365
41.00
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
West Ham
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.60
0.94
0.38
0.43
0.86
vs Stronger (5)
0.60
1.20
0.50
0.50
0.67
1.67
vs Similar (22)
0.68
0.50
0.92
0.33
0.40
0.70
vs Weaker (3)
1.00
0.33
1.50
0.50
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
60% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Charlton) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Charlton
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.37
0.53
0.25
0.75
0.50
0.29
vs Stronger (7)
0.43
0.57
0.25
1.00
0.67
0.00
vs Similar (22)
0.23
0.55
0.25
0.67
0.20
0.40
vs Weaker (1)
3.00
0.00
-
-
3.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
50% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (West Ham) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
70.1%
@ 1.30-1.7%
Under 0.5
29.9%
@ 3.31+1.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.36
Pinnacle
1.31
Superbet
1.31
William Hil
1.30
Bet365
1.30
Under
BetVictor
3.40
Unibet
3.40
Bet365
3.40
Superbet
3.35
Betfair
3.30
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
34.5%
@ 2.43-3.9%
Under 1.5
65.5%
@ 1.51+3.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.59
Betano
2.57
Bet365
2.50
Superbet
2.45
1xBet
2.44
Under
10Bet
1.55
Superbet
1.54
William Hil
1.53
Unibet
1.53
Betano
1.52
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
13.2%
@ 5.80-2.8%
Under 2.5
86.8%
@ 1.11+2.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
7.00
Betfair
6.50
Bet365
6.00
William Hil
5.80
Betano
5.70
Under
Betano
1.13
10Bet
1.13
Superbet
1.13
William Hil
1.12
Unibet
1.12
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
West Ham over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
57.0%
@ 1.52-4.6%
Under
43.0%
@ 2.43+4.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.57
Pinnacle
1.53
Superbet
1.52
1xBet
1.52
10Bet
1.48
Under
10Bet
2.55
Pinnacle
2.53
Unibet
2.48
Superbet
2.37
1xBet
2.36
West Ham over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
19.4%
@ 3.41-7.8%
Under
80.6%
@ 1.27+7.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
3.60
Marathonbet
3.56
1xBet
3.40
Unibet
3.35
Superbet
3.35
Under
10Bet
1.30
Unibet
1.28
Superbet
1.28
Betano
1.26
1xBet
1.25
West Ham over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
8.9%
@ 8.39-2.2%
Under
91.1%
@ 1.04+2.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
9.70
Unibet
8.50
Superbet
8.50
Betano
8.25
10Bet
7.00
Under
10Bet
1.07
Betano
1.05
Unibet
1.05
Superbet
1.04
1xBet
1.01
Charlton over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
28.3%
@ 3.06-2.1%
Under
71.7%
@ 1.34+2.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
3.46
10Bet
3.10
Superbet
3.05
Betano
3.00
Marathonbet
2.98
Under
Betano
1.36
1xBet
1.36
Unibet
1.35
Marathonbet
1.33
10Bet
1.33
Charlton over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
5.5%
@ 11.83-2.5%
Under
94.5%
@ 1.03+2.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
13.00
Unibet
13.00
Betano
9.50
Under
Betano
1.04
Unibet
1.02
Superbet
1.02
Charlton over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
1.1%
@ 60.00-98.9%
Under
98.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
60.00
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
West Ham
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.90
0.75
0.81
0.50
1.00
vs Stronger (5)
0.40
1.40
0.00
0.50
0.67
2.00
vs Similar (22)
0.73
0.86
0.92
0.92
0.50
0.80
vs Weaker (3)
0.33
0.33
0.50
0.50
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
33% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (Charlton) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Charlton
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.80
0.69
0.56
0.64
1.07
vs Stronger (7)
0.57
0.86
0.50
1.25
0.67
0.33
vs Similar (22)
0.73
0.77
0.75
0.33
0.70
1.30
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
1.00
-
-
0.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
47% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (West Ham) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
84.3%
Under 0.5
15.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
55.0%
Under 1.5
45.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
25.6%
Under 2.5
74.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
West Ham over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
68.2%
Under
31.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
West Ham over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
38.8%
Under
61.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
West Ham over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
16.5%
Under
83.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Charlton over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
39.0%
Under
61.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Charlton over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
9.7%
Under
90.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Charlton over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
3.3%
Under
96.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Away under 3.5 goals
99.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 HT goals
98.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 7.5
98.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 2H goals
96.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
96.5%
1.02
Betano
1.03
Bet365
1.02
Superbet
1.02
1xBet
1.02
-
+1.9%
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
96.1%
1.01
Bet365
1.02
Betfair
1.01
-
-
-
+2.1%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
94.8%
1.03
Betano
1.04
Bet365
1.03
888Sport
1.02
Superbet
1.02
-
+1.7%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 HT goals
94.5%
1.03
Betano
1.04
Unibet
1.02
Superbet
1.02
-
-
+2.5%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
91.3%
1.04
Betano
1.07
Superbet
1.06
Bet365
1.06
888Sport
1.05
Betfair
1.05
+1.3%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 HT goals
91.1%
1.04
10Bet
1.07
Betano
1.05
Unibet
1.05
Superbet
1.04
1xBet
1.01
+2.2%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 2H goals
90.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home over 0.5 goals
88.8%
1.08
Betano
1.11
Bet365
1.10
Superbet
1.09
888Sport
1.08
BetVictor
1.07
+2.2%
✓ Hit
Home or Draw
88.0%
1.08
Betano
1.12
William Hil
1.11
Bet365
1.10
BetVictor
1.10
Superbet
1.09
+0.9%
✗ Miss
Home +1 handicap
88.0%
1.07
Bet365
1.10
Unibet
1.07
10Bet
1.06
Betfair
1.06
-
+3.4%
✗ Miss
Under 2.5 HT goals
86.8%
1.11
Betano
1.13
10Bet
1.13
Superbet
1.13
William Hil
1.12
Unibet
1.12
+2.8%
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 2H goals
84.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 2H goals
83.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards
83.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
82.1%
1.15
Betano
1.17
10Bet
1.17
888Sport
1.17
Superbet
1.16
Unibet
1.15
+1.0%
✓ Hit
Under 4.5
81.1%
1.16
Betano
1.19
10Bet
1.18
Superbet
1.17
Bet365
1.17
Unibet
1.17
+0.0%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 HT goals
80.6%
1.27
10Bet
1.30
Unibet
1.28
Superbet
1.28
Betano
1.26
1xBet
1.25
+7.8%
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
80.1%
1.20
Pinnacle
1.24
Superbet
1.23
Betano
1.23
Bet365
1.22
BetVictor
1.22
+2.4%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 goals
79.7%
1.17
Betano
1.21
Bet365
1.20
1xBet
1.17
Superbet
1.17
Marathonbet
1.17
-0.1%
✗ Miss
Home or Away
79.6%
1.16
Superbet
1.19
Betano
1.19
888Sport
1.18
Bet365
1.18
William Hil
1.18
-1.4%
✓ Hit
Under 25.5 fouls
74.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 2H goals
74.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
72.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 0.5 HT goals
71.7%
1.34
Betano
1.36
1xBet
1.36
Unibet
1.35
Marathonbet
1.33
10Bet
1.33
+2.1%
✗ Miss
Over 2.5 cards
71.3%
1.58
Bet365
1.62
1xBet
1.62
Superbet
1.57
Pinnacle
1.56
Unibet
1.55
+12.9%
✓ Hit
Over 8.5 corners
70.8%
1.33
Superbet
1.37
Unibet
1.33
Betfair
1.33
Betano
1.33
1xBet
1.32
+1.7%
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 HT goals
70.1%
1.30
Betano
1.36
Pinnacle
1.31
Superbet
1.31
William Hil
1.30
Bet365
1.30
-1.7%
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
West Ham
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
J. Bowen50%
V. Castellanos33%
J. Piroe25%
Konstantinos Mavropanos25%
D. Mukasa25%
M. Solomon20%
M. Kilman17%
Kyle Walker-Peters0%
J. Veltman0%
M. Hermansen0%
Arne Engels0%
L. Orford0%
Pablo Felipe0%
O. Scarles0%
Mohamadou Kanté0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
V. Castellanos50%
D. Mukasa25%
M. Hermansen20%
J. Veltman17%
M. Kilman17%
Mohamadou Kanté17%
Kyle Walker-Peters0%
J. Piroe0%
M. Solomon0%
Konstantinos Mavropanos0%
J. Bowen0%
Arne Engels0%
L. Orford0%
Pablo Felipe0%
O. Scarles0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
J. Bowen50%
Pablo Felipe33%
Arne Engels25%
L. Orford20%
J. Veltman17%
Mohamadou Kanté17%
Kyle Walker-Peters0%
J. Piroe0%
M. Solomon0%
Konstantinos Mavropanos0%
M. Hermansen0%
M. Kilman0%
V. Castellanos0%
O. Scarles0%
D. Mukasa0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
J. Bowen50%
V. Castellanos33%
Pablo Felipe33%
J. Piroe25%
Konstantinos Mavropanos25%
D. Mukasa25%
Kyle Walker-Peters0%
J. Veltman0%
M. Solomon0%
M. Hermansen0%
M. Kilman0%
Arne Engels0%
L. Orford0%
O. Scarles0%
Mohamadou Kanté0%
Charlton
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Tyreece Campbell80%
Lloyd Jones50%
Karlan Grant20%
Sonny Carey20%
Ivan Mesík0%
Nathaniel Chalobah0%
Conor Coventry0%
Amari'i Bell0%
Danny McNamara0%
Joe Rankin-Costello0%
Billy Koumetio0%
Millenic Alli0%
Arthur Okonkwo0%
Collins Sichenje0%
Miles Leaburn0%
Micah Mbick0%
Alan Nwamba0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Karlan Grant20%
Joe Rankin-Costello20%
Danny McNamara17%
Lloyd Jones17%
Ivan Mesík0%
Nathaniel Chalobah0%
Conor Coventry0%
Amari'i Bell0%
Billy Koumetio0%
Sonny Carey0%
Millenic Alli0%
Arthur Okonkwo0%
Collins Sichenje0%
Miles Leaburn0%
Tyreece Campbell0%
Micah Mbick0%
Alan Nwamba0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Sonny Carey40%
Nathaniel Chalobah25%
Conor Coventry20%
Karlan Grant20%
Joe Rankin-Costello20%
Millenic Alli20%
Ivan Mesík0%
Amari'i Bell0%
Danny McNamara0%
Lloyd Jones0%
Billy Koumetio0%
Arthur Okonkwo0%
Collins Sichenje0%
Miles Leaburn0%
Tyreece Campbell0%
Micah Mbick0%
Alan Nwamba0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Sonny Carey20%
Tyreece Campbell20%
Ivan Mesík0%
Nathaniel Chalobah0%
Conor Coventry0%
Karlan Grant0%
Amari'i Bell0%
Danny McNamara0%
Lloyd Jones0%
Joe Rankin-Costello0%
Billy Koumetio0%
Millenic Alli0%
Arthur Okonkwo0%
Collins Sichenje0%
Miles Leaburn0%
Micah Mbick0%
Alan Nwamba0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
WHU (24)
€274m
WOL (31)
€273m
SOU (30)
€205m
MID (29)
€142m
BUR (28)
€115m
SHU (27)
€110m
NOR (34)
€107m
BIR (26)
€93m
SWA (27)
€91m
WAT (22)
€88m
MIL (29)
€85m
STK (25)
€79m
WRE (32)
€77m
QPR (28)
€71m
BRC (25)
€66m
DER (25)
€57m
WBA (22)
€52m
PRE (20)
€43m
BLB (27)
€36m
POR (30)
€32m
CHA (29)
€31m
CAR (25)
€29m
BOL (22)
€17m
LIN (24)
€12m
West Ham's squad is €243m more valuable than Charlton's (€274m vs €31m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
WHU (7)
€84m
WOL (11)
€79m
MID (12)
€74m
SOU (10)
€72m
BUR (14)
€70m
SWA (13)
€56m
NOR (10)
€46m
BIR (9)
€46m
STK (8)
€35m
MIL (10)
€30m
QPR (11)
€29m
SHU (9)
€29m
BRC (8)
€29m
WAT (6)
€28m
DER (8)
€25m
CHA (13)
€18m
PRE (6)
€17m
CAR (12)
€15m
BLB (8)
€15m
WRE (9)
€15m
WBA (7)
€15m
POR (12)
€13m
BOL (6)
€4m
LIN (7)
€3m
West Ham's attack is €67m more valuable than Charlton's (€84m vs €18m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
WOL (6)
€79m
SOU (5)
€53m
WHU (5)
€48m
WAT (6)
€38m
SHU (5)
€32m
NOR (11)
€31m
MIL (8)
€29m
MID (5)
€27m
WRE (9)
€23m
WBA (6)
€22m
BRC (6)
€19m
QPR (5)
€15m
DER (6)
€14m
BIR (5)
€12m
STK (6)
€11m
SWA (4)
€9m
BUR (3)
€8m
BLB (7)
€7m
POR (5)
€5m
BOL (4)
€4m
CAR (3)
€4m
CHA (3)
€3m
PRE (3)
€3m
LIN (4)
€2m
West Ham's midfield is €45m more valuable than Charlton's (€48m vs €3m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
WHU (12)
€141m
WOL (14)
€116m
SOU (15)
€79m
SHU (13)
€49m
MID (12)
€41m
WRE (14)
€39m
BUR (11)
€37m
BIR (12)
€35m
STK (11)
€32m
NOR (13)
€29m
QPR (12)
€27m
SWA (10)
€26m
MIL (11)
€25m
PRE (11)
€22m
WAT (10)
€22m
BRC (11)
€18m
DER (11)
€18m
WBA (9)
€15m
POR (13)
€14m
BLB (12)
€14m
CHA (13)
€10m
CAR (10)
€10m
BOL (12)
€9m
LIN (13)
€6m
West Ham's defence is €131m more valuable than Charlton's (€141m vs €10m).
England: Championship 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full England: Championship stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Swansea
QPR
Southampton
Wolves
Middlesbrough
Bristol City
West Brom
Birmingham
Sheffield United
Millwall
Wrexham
Blackburn
Watford
Bolton
Derby
Lincoln
Cardiff
Norwich
Portsmouth
Stoke
Burnley
Preston