West Ham’s recent draw against Watford suggests a cautious start, yet the model still favours a home win with 43% confidence, while a draw sits at 25% and a Wolves victory at 33%. The expected goal tally is 3.4, pointing to a 3-goal match, and the single most likely scoreline is 1-1, carrying a 10.7% probability. West Ham averages 1.82 goals scored and 1.09 conceded at home against similar opposition, whereas Wolves, on a three-game winning streak, average only 0.78 goals scored and 1.78 conceded on the road. The model’s selections highlight a strong edge on low-scoring outcomes: Under 7.5 goals at 98.9%, Under 6.5 at 96.8% with a 2% edge, and Away under 3.5 goals at 96.6% with a 3% edge. Other picks include Under 5.5 (91.9% with a 2% edge), Home under 3.5 goals (89.7% with a 1% edge), Home +2 handicap (89.4% with a 3% edge), Away under 2.5 goals (87.8% with a 4% edge), and Over 1.5 (85.9% with a 9% edge). The model’s edge on the low-scoring side stems from Wolves’ defensive record and West Ham’s modest home scoring rate, making a tight 1-1 outcome the most plausible.
Results analysis
West Ham’s win extends their recent run, finishing the match 4-2 to secure a home victory. The model’s favourite, a home win, was correct, reflecting the 43% probability assigned. The final score matched the favoured outcome, confirming the prediction. The model’s selections largely hit: Under 7.5 goals at 98.9% hit, Under 6.5 at 96.8% hit, Away under 3.5 goals at 96.6% hit, Home +2 handicap at 89.4% hit, Away under 2.5 goals at 87.8% hit, and Over 1.5 at 85.9% hit. Two picks missed: Under 5.5 goals at 91.9% and Home under 3.5 goals at 89.7%. Overall, the model’s predictions performed strongly.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
West Ham win✓ Hit
43.0%
Avg Implied 45.8% · @ 2.06
Edge
-2.8%
Best 5 market prices
10Bet
2.20
Betano
2.15
Betfair
2.10
Dafabet
2.09
Pinnacle
2.08
Draw✗ Miss
24.5%
Avg Implied 26.2% · @ 3.61
Edge
-1.7%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
3.77
Betano
3.70
Dafabet
3.70
BetVictor
3.70
Marathonbet
3.62
Wolves win✗ Miss
32.5%
Avg Implied 28.0% · @ 3.37
Edge
+4.5%
Best 5 market prices
Bet365
3.50
Betano
3.50
Pinnacle
3.48
Superbet
3.40
Betfair
3.40
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
West Ham
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.2
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.43
1.40
1.62
1.12
1.21
1.71
vs Stronger (4)
1.25
2.50
0.50
1.00
2.00
4.00
vs Similar (21)
1.52
1.29
1.82
1.09
1.20
1.50
vs Weaker (5)
1.20
1.00
1.67
1.33
0.50
0.50
Clean sheet %
23% (-5pp vs league)
This opponent (Wolves) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Wolves
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.33
1.37
1.75
1.25
0.86
1.50
vs Stronger (10)
1.00
1.50
1.14
1.43
0.67
1.67
vs Similar (16)
1.12
1.56
1.57
1.29
0.78
1.78
vs Weaker (4)
3.00
0.25
4.50
0.50
1.50
0.00
Clean sheet %
23% (-5pp vs league)
This opponent (West Ham) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
85.9%
@ 1.23+8.9%
Under 1.5
14.1%
@ 4.13-8.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
1.53
Betano
1.23
Pinnacle
1.21
BetVictor
1.21
Unibet
1.21
Under
Pinnacle
4.73
Superbet
4.60
Betfair
4.50
Bet365
4.50
Marathonbet
4.25
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
65.4%
@ 1.66+8.5%
Under 2.5
34.6%
@ 2.19-8.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
1.72
Betano
1.70
Bet365
1.67
Pinnacle
1.67
10Bet
1.67
Under
Pinnacle
2.31
Superbet
2.25
Betano
2.22
1xBet
2.21
SBO
2.21
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
43.5%
@ 2.60+7.4%
Under 3.5
56.5%
@ 1.47-7.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
2.85
Betano
2.70
Pinnacle
2.66
10Bet
2.65
Betfair
2.63
Under
Superbet
1.51
Pinnacle
1.51
Betano
1.50
Bet365
1.50
10Bet
1.48
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
67.0%
@ 1.55+6.9%
No
33.0%
@ 2.33-6.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Unibet
1.62
William Hil
1.57
Superbet
1.57
10Bet
1.55
Betano
1.55
No
Betfair
2.45
Bet365
2.38
BetVictor
2.38
Betano
2.35
10Bet
2.35
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
10.7%@ 6.59+3.4%
2-1
8.8%@ 8.12+2.9%
1-2
7.6%@ 10.78+3.1%
2-2
6.9%@ 12.18+2.9%
2-0
5.6%@ 10.63+1.1%
3-1
5.3%@ 14.64+2.0%
1-0
5.3%@ 8.77-0.2%
0-0
4.4%@ 12.25+0.5%
West Ham goals ↓
Wolves goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
4.4%
4.4%
4.2%
2.2%
0.8%
1
5.3%
11%
7.6%
3.9%
1.5%
2
5.6%
8.8%
6.9%
3.6%
1.4%
3
3.4%
5.3%
4.1%
2.1%
0.8%
4
1.5%
2.4%
1.9%
1.0%
0.4%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = West Ham goals (down), columns = Wolves goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
West Ham
1.92
Wolves
1.90
Millwall
1.75
Burnley
1.72
Southampton
1.71
Middlesbrough
1.67
Wrexham
1.54
Derby
1.50
Norwich
1.41
Birmingham
1.39
Swansea
1.39
Bristol City
1.35
Sheffield United
1.30
Preston
1.30
Cardiff
1.30
QPR
1.26
Watford
1.24
Stoke
1.20
Portsmouth
1.20
West Brom
1.15
Charlton
1.15
Blackburn
1.13
Bolton
1.00
Lincoln
0.94
West Ham is 0.01 points better than Wolves in terms of average points per game (1.92 vs 1.90).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
West Ham
1.82
Wolves
1.81
Southampton
1.73
Burnley
1.63
Wrexham
1.50
Middlesbrough
1.49
Derby
1.46
Sheffield United
1.43
Norwich
1.37
Millwall
1.33
QPR
1.33
Bristol City
1.28
Birmingham
1.24
Swansea
1.24
Cardiff
1.23
Preston
1.20
Watford
1.15
Stoke
1.11
Portsmouth
1.07
West Brom
1.04
Charlton
0.96
Bolton
0.95
Blackburn
0.91
Lincoln
0.89
West Ham is 0.01 goals better than Wolves in terms of goals scored per game (1.82 vs 1.81).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
West Ham
0.92
Wolves
0.93
Middlesbrough
1.00
Burnley
1.03
Millwall
1.06
Southampton
1.19
Birmingham
1.22
Blackburn
1.22
Norwich
1.22
Stoke
1.22
West Brom
1.26
Charlton
1.26
Bristol City
1.28
Swansea
1.28
Derby
1.28
Preston
1.35
Cardiff
1.36
Portsmouth
1.39
Wrexham
1.41
Watford
1.41
Sheffield United
1.43
QPR
1.59
Bolton
1.77
Lincoln
1.87
West Ham is 0.01 goals better than Wolves in terms of goals conceded per game (0.92 vs 0.93).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Middlesbrough
59%
Southampton
56%
Swansea
55%
Birmingham
54%
Norwich
54%
Sheffield United
52%
Stoke
52%
West Brom
52%
Watford
51%
Portsmouth
50%
Bristol City
49%
Wrexham
48%
Blackburn
48%
Millwall
48%
QPR
46%
Preston
46%
Derby
44%
Charlton
42%
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
West Ham
For 5.2 · Against 4.4 · Total 9.6
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.0 · Against 2.3 · Total 4.3
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.2 · Against 11.6 · Total 21.8
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Wolves
For 5.2 · Against 4.6 · Total 9.8
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.3 · Against 2.5 · Total 3.8
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.3 · Against 10.5 · Total 21.8
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
West Ham
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
11.1
11.2
11.1
3.9
4.2
3.6
22.2
23.0
21.4
vs Stronger (8)
11.0
11.0
11.0
3.5
3.5
3.5
23.6
22.0
25.2
vs Similar (37)
10.8
11.2
10.5
3.9
4.2
3.6
21.5
22.2
20.8
vs Weaker (5)
13.6
11.7
16.5
4.6
5.0
4.0
25.0
29.0
19.0
% over line
66%
64%
68%
56%
52%
60%
50%
52%
48%
% under line
34%
36%
32%
44%
48%
40%
50%
48%
52%
This opponent (Wolves) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Wolves
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.4
8.8
10.1
3.9
3.9
3.9
23.3
23.1
23.6
vs Stronger (18)
10.0
8.6
11.8
4.1
4.6
3.5
23.6
22.6
24.8
vs Similar (28)
8.8
8.5
9.2
3.9
3.6
4.3
23.9
23.9
23.8
vs Weaker (4)
10.2
11.5
9.0
2.8
2.5
3.0
18.2
18.5
18.0
% over line
56%
50%
64%
56%
50%
64%
62%
64%
59%
% under line
44%
50%
36%
44%
50%
36%
38%
36%
41%
This opponent (West Ham) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Sheffield United
11.5
West Ham
11.1
Southampton
11.1
Millwall
11.0
Middlesbrough
10.9
Cardiff
10.9
Portsmouth
10.8
Preston
10.6
Blackburn
10.6
Bolton
10.4
Watford
10.4
Stoke
10.4
Norwich
10.3
Birmingham
10.2
Wrexham
10.1
Bristol City
10.1
Swansea
10.0
QPR
10.0
Derby
10.0
Charlton
9.7
Burnley
9.6
West Brom
9.4
Wolves
9.4
Lincoln
9.1
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Watford
4.5
Sheffield United
4.1
Lincoln
4.1
Derby
4.1
Stoke
4.0
Norwich
4.0
Swansea
4.0
Bristol City
3.9
Portsmouth
3.9
West Ham
3.9
Blackburn
3.9
Wolves
3.9
Southampton
3.9
QPR
3.8
Birmingham
3.7
Bolton
3.6
Charlton
3.6
Middlesbrough
3.5
Cardiff
3.5
Wrexham
3.5
Millwall
3.5
Preston
3.4
West Brom
3.4
Burnley
3.2
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Wolves
23.3
Lincoln
23.0
Derby
22.7
Swansea
22.4
West Ham
22.2
Portsmouth
22.1
Bolton
22.1
Southampton
21.9
Birmingham
21.9
Middlesbrough
21.6
Charlton
21.5
Sheffield United
21.5
Norwich
21.4
Bristol City
21.2
Watford
21.1
West Brom
20.8
Blackburn
20.8
Stoke
20.8
Cardiff
20.8
QPR
20.6
Millwall
20.4
Preston
20.2
Burnley
20.0
Wrexham
19.6
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
58.1%
@ 1.66+2.2%
Under 9.5
41.9%
@ 2.10-2.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.70
Superbet
1.69
Betano
1.67
1xBet
1.65
Betfair
1.65
Under
Pinnacle
2.15
Betano
2.12
Marathonbet
2.11
Betfair
2.10
1xBet
2.10
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
53.6%
@ 1.70-0.9%
Under 3.5
46.4%
@ 2.04+0.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.79
Unibet
1.72
Betano
1.72
Bet365
1.67
1xBet
1.67
Under
Bet365
2.10
1xBet
2.10
Superbet
2.05
Betano
2.05
Pinnacle
2.01
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Under
Over 21.5
60.8%
@ 1.75+10.8%
Under 21.5
39.2%
@ 1.75-10.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.75
Under
1xBet
1.75
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
West Ham or Draw✓ Hit
75.0%
Avg Implied 72.1% · @ 1.29
Edge
+2.9%
43%
25%
33%
covers West Ham + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.34
Superbet
1.32
BetVictor
1.30
Betfair
1.30
Bet365
1.30
West Ham or Wolves✓ Hit
74.4%
Avg Implied 73.7% · @ 1.27
Edge
+0.8%
43%
25%
33%
covers West Ham + Wolves
Best 5 market prices
Superbet
1.29
William Hil
1.29
Bet365
1.28
10Bet
1.28
Betano
1.28
Draw or Wolves✗ Miss
50.6%
Avg Implied 54.2% · @ 1.72
Edge
-3.6%
43%
25%
33%
covers Draw + Wolves
Best 5 market prices
SBO
1.79
Unibet
1.78
Marathonbet
1.75
Betano
1.75
1xBet
1.75
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
West Ham over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
82.9%
@ 1.16+2.6%
Under
17.1%
@ 4.72-2.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.18
Superbet
1.17
Bet365
1.17
10Bet
1.17
Unibet
1.15
Under
Betfair
5.20
Bet365
5.00
BetVictor
4.80
1xBet
4.75
Superbet
4.65
West Ham over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
52.7%
@ 1.84+1.9%
Under
47.3%
@ 1.90-1.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.86
Unibet
1.86
Betano
1.85
Superbet
1.85
10Bet
1.85
Under
Pinnacle
1.99
1xBet
1.94
Marathonbet
1.94
Bet365
1.91
Superbet
1.90
West Ham over/under 2.5Actual: Over
Over
26.0%
@ 3.63+0.4%
Under
74.0%
@ 1.25-0.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
3.80
Unibet
3.80
Pinnacle
3.73
10Bet
3.70
Superbet
3.60
Under
Pinnacle
1.28
Bet365
1.28
Betano
1.27
1xBet
1.26
Marathonbet
1.26
West Ham over/under 3.5Actual: Over
Over
10.3%
@ 8.06-1.2%
Under
89.7%
@ 1.05+1.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
9.00
Bet365
9.00
Unibet
8.00
Superbet
7.90
Marathonbet
7.70
Under
Betano
1.08
Bet365
1.07
Superbet
1.06
1xBet
1.03
Unibet
1.03
Wolves over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
70.1%
@ 1.30-1.4%
Under
29.9%
@ 3.27+1.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
1.33
Betano
1.32
Superbet
1.31
Bet365
1.30
Pinnacle
1.30
Under
Pinnacle
3.52
Bet365
3.40
BetVictor
3.30
Betfair
3.30
Superbet
3.25
Wolves over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
34.0%
@ 2.49-3.5%
Under
66.0%
@ 1.50+3.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
2.65
Pinnacle
2.57
Bet365
2.50
1xBet
2.49
Marathonbet
2.49
Under
Pinnacle
1.54
Betano
1.52
Betfair
1.50
Bet365
1.50
BetVictor
1.50
Wolves over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
12.2%
@ 5.83-3.7%
Under
87.8%
@ 1.10+3.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
6.50
Unibet
6.10
Bet365
6.00
1xBet
5.95
Marathonbet
5.90
Under
Betano
1.13
Superbet
1.12
Bet365
1.12
10Bet
1.11
BetVictor
1.11
Wolves over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
3.4%
@ 13.75-3.5%
Under
96.6%
@ 1.02+3.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
17.00
Superbet
14.00
Betano
10.25
Under
Betano
1.03
Superbet
1.02
Bet365
1.02
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to West Ham, so a minus line means West Ham give that many goals of a start and Wolves receive them. At -1, West Ham must win by two or more to land; a one-goal West Ham win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (West Ham)Actual: Draw
West Ham -2
12.3%
@ 7.63+0.6%
Draw -2
15.4%
@ 6.05+0.5%
Wolves +2
72.3%
@ 1.22-1.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
8.50
Bet365
8.00
10Bet
8.00
Unibet
7.50
Marathonbet
6.90
Draw
10Bet
7.50
Betfair
6.00
Bet365
6.00
Marathonbet
5.85
Superbet
5.55
Away
Superbet
1.26
Bet365
1.25
Unibet
1.25
Marathonbet
1.24
Betfair
1.20
Handicap -1 (West Ham)Actual: West Ham
West Ham -1
27.7%
@ 3.56+2.8%
Draw -1
21.7%
@ 3.84-1.4%
Wolves +1
50.6%
@ 1.71-1.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
3.75
10Bet
3.70
Superbet
3.50
Bet365
3.50
Unibet
3.50
Draw
10Bet
4.00
Bet365
4.00
Superbet
3.85
Marathonbet
3.84
Betfair
3.75
Away
Bet365
1.80
Unibet
1.76
Marathonbet
1.75
Superbet
1.73
Betfair
1.67
Handicap +1 (West Ham)Actual: West Ham
West Ham +1
75.0%
@ 1.29+5.0%
Draw +1
14.5%
@ 5.11-3.2%
Wolves -1
10.6%
@ 7.33-1.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Superbet
1.31
Bet365
1.30
Betfair
1.30
Marathonbet
1.29
Unibet
1.29
Draw
Bet365
5.50
Marathonbet
5.15
Superbet
5.10
Betfair
5.00
10Bet
5.00
Away
10Bet
10.00
Betfair
7.00
Bet365
7.00
Unibet
7.00
Marathonbet
6.70
Handicap +2 (West Ham)Actual: West Ham
West Ham +2
89.4%
@ 1.06+2.6%
Draw +2
7.2%
@ 10.50-1.6%
Wolves -2
3.4%
@ 21.00-1.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.10
Unibet
1.07
Betfair
1.06
10Bet
1.03
Draw
10Bet
13.00
Bet365
10.00
Betfair
10.00
Unibet
9.00
Away
10Bet
34.00
Bet365
19.00
Betfair
17.00
Unibet
14.00
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
West Ham
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.60
0.81
0.38
0.57
0.86
vs Stronger (4)
0.75
1.00
0.50
0.50
1.00
1.50
vs Similar (21)
0.67
0.52
0.82
0.27
0.50
0.80
vs Weaker (5)
0.80
0.60
1.00
0.67
0.50
0.50
Clean sheet %
57% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Wolves) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Wolves
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.77
0.81
0.62
0.43
0.93
vs Stronger (10)
0.10
0.90
0.00
0.57
0.33
1.67
vs Similar (16)
0.62
0.81
1.00
0.71
0.33
0.89
vs Weaker (4)
2.00
0.25
3.00
0.50
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
47% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (West Ham) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.37
Pinnacle
1.33
Superbet
1.31
10Bet
1.30
1xBet
1.30
Under
Betfair
3.60
BetVictor
3.40
Bet365
3.40
William Hil
3.40
Superbet
3.35
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
2.55
Betano
2.55
Pinnacle
2.44
Superbet
2.40
Betfair
2.40
Under
Pinnacle
1.57
10Bet
1.55
Superbet
1.55
William Hil
1.53
Bet365
1.53
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
6.00
Unibet
6.00
Bet365
6.00
Betano
5.60
Superbet
5.55
Under
Superbet
1.14
Betano
1.14
10Bet
1.13
Bet365
1.12
William Hil
1.12
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
West Ham over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.82
Unibet
1.80
Pinnacle
1.76
Superbet
1.74
1xBet
1.74
Under
Pinnacle
2.09
10Bet
2.00
1xBet
1.98
Superbet
1.97
Marathonbet
1.95
West Ham over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
5.00
Marathonbet
4.85
Betano
4.75
Superbet
4.60
1xBet
4.60
Under
10Bet
1.17
Betano
1.16
Superbet
1.16
1xBet
1.14
Unibet
1.14
West Ham over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
14.00
Betano
10.50
Under
Betano
1.03
Superbet
1.01
Wolves over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
2.23
Pinnacle
2.18
Betano
2.15
1xBet
2.12
Marathonbet
2.11
Under
10Bet
1.70
Pinnacle
1.69
Superbet
1.65
Betano
1.65
1xBet
1.64
Wolves over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
7.30
Unibet
7.00
1xBet
6.90
Superbet
6.60
10Bet
6.50
Under
Betano
1.09
Superbet
1.08
10Bet
1.08
1xBet
1.06
Unibet
1.06
Wolves over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
22.00
Betano
12.50
Under
Betano
1.01
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
West Ham
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.80
0.81
0.75
0.64
0.86
vs Stronger (4)
0.50
1.50
0.00
0.50
1.00
2.50
vs Similar (21)
0.86
0.76
1.00
0.82
0.70
0.70
vs Weaker (5)
0.40
0.40
0.67
0.67
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
40% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Wolves) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Wolves
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.60
0.94
0.62
0.43
0.57
vs Stronger (10)
0.90
0.60
1.14
0.86
0.33
0.00
vs Similar (16)
0.50
0.75
0.57
0.57
0.44
0.89
vs Weaker (4)
1.00
0.00
1.50
0.00
0.50
0.00
Clean sheet %
57% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (West Ham) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.19
Betano
1.19
10Bet
1.18
Bet365
1.18
William Hil
1.18
Under
1xBet
4.60
Marathonbet
4.60
Superbet
4.55
Betano
4.55
Bet365
4.50
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
1.91
Superbet
1.90
Unibet
1.90
1xBet
1.85
Betano
1.85
Under
Betano
1.93
Marathonbet
1.90
1xBet
1.89
Superbet
1.88
10Bet
1.85
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
3.85
William Hil
3.80
Superbet
3.75
Bet365
3.75
10Bet
3.65
Under
Betano
1.29
Superbet
1.26
10Bet
1.25
Bet365
1.25
1xBet
1.24
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
West Ham over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.53
Betano
1.52
1xBet
1.50
Under
Betano
2.42
1xBet
2.40
Superbet
2.35
West Ham over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
3.60
Superbet
3.55
Marathonbet
3.40
Betano
3.35
1xBet
3.30
Under
Betano
1.29
1xBet
1.27
Superbet
1.26
Marathonbet
1.26
10Bet
1.25
West Ham over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
9.20
Superbet
9.20
Betano
7.80
Under
Betano
1.06
Superbet
1.04
1xBet
1.02
Wolves over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.80
1xBet
1.79
Betano
1.78
Marathonbet
1.78
Under
Betano
1.98
Superbet
1.92
Marathonbet
1.90
1xBet
1.90
Wolves over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
5.10
Superbet
4.90
1xBet
4.90
10Bet
4.75
Betano
4.55
Under
Betano
1.17
10Bet
1.15
Superbet
1.14
1xBet
1.13
Marathonbet
1.12
Wolves over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
15.00
Betano
10.25
Under
Betano
1.03
Superbet
1.01
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 7.5
98.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
96.8%
1.02
Betano
1.03
Superbet
1.02
Bet365
1.02
1xBet
1.02
-
+2.3%
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
96.6%
1.02
Betano
1.03
Superbet
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
+3.5%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
91.9%
1.05
Betano
1.08
Bet365
1.07
Superbet
1.07
Betfair
1.06
BetVictor
1.03
+2.4%
✗ Miss
Home under 3.5 goals
89.7%
1.05
Betano
1.08
Bet365
1.07
Superbet
1.06
1xBet
1.03
Unibet
1.03
+1.2%
✗ Miss
Home +2 handicap
89.4%
1.06
Bet365
1.10
Unibet
1.07
Betfair
1.06
10Bet
1.03
-
+2.6%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
87.8%
1.10
Betano
1.13
Superbet
1.12
Bet365
1.12
10Bet
1.11
BetVictor
1.11
+3.7%
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
85.9%
1.23
10Bet
1.53
Betano
1.23
Pinnacle
1.21
BetVictor
1.21
Unibet
1.21
+8.9%
✓ Hit
Home over 0.5 goals
82.9%
1.16
Betano
1.18
Superbet
1.17
Bet365
1.17
10Bet
1.17
Unibet
1.15
+2.6%
✓ Hit
Under 4.5
82.0%
1.17
Superbet
1.20
Betano
1.20
Bet365
1.20
Pinnacle
1.19
10Bet
1.18
+1.7%
✗ Miss
Under 5.5 cards
80.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
76.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Home or Draw
75.0%
1.29
Betano
1.34
Superbet
1.32
BetVictor
1.30
Betfair
1.30
Bet365
1.30
+2.9%
✓ Hit
Home +1 handicap
75.0%
1.29
Superbet
1.31
Bet365
1.30
Betfair
1.30
Marathonbet
1.29
Unibet
1.29
+5.0%
✓ Hit
Home or Away
74.4%
1.27
Superbet
1.29
William Hil
1.29
Bet365
1.28
10Bet
1.28
Betano
1.28
+0.8%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 goals
74.0%
1.25
Pinnacle
1.28
Bet365
1.28
Betano
1.27
1xBet
1.26
Marathonbet
1.26
-0.4%
✗ Miss
Over 2.5 cards
73.9%
1.30
Betano
1.33
Pinnacle
1.31
Superbet
1.25
-
-
+3.0%
✓ Hit
Away +2 handicap
72.3%
1.22
Superbet
1.26
Bet365
1.25
Unibet
1.25
Marathonbet
1.24
Betfair
1.20
-1.1%
✗ Miss
Under 25.5 fouls
71.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 8.5 corners
70.2%
1.38
Superbet
1.44
Unibet
1.40
Betano
1.39
Betfair
1.36
1xBet
1.35
+3.4%
✓ Hit
Away over 0.5 goals
70.1%
1.30
Unibet
1.33
Betano
1.32
Superbet
1.31
Bet365
1.30
Pinnacle
1.30
-1.4%
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
West Ham
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
J. Bowen50%
V. Castellanos33%
J. Piroe25%
Konstantinos Mavropanos25%
D. Mukasa25%
M. Solomon20%
M. Kilman17%
Kyle Walker-Peters0%
J. Veltman0%
M. Hermansen0%
Arne Engels0%
L. Orford0%
Pablo Felipe0%
O. Scarles0%
Mohamadou Kanté0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
V. Castellanos50%
D. Mukasa25%
M. Hermansen20%
J. Veltman17%
M. Kilman17%
Mohamadou Kanté17%
Kyle Walker-Peters0%
J. Piroe0%
M. Solomon0%
Konstantinos Mavropanos0%
J. Bowen0%
Arne Engels0%
L. Orford0%
Pablo Felipe0%
O. Scarles0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
J. Bowen50%
Pablo Felipe33%
Arne Engels25%
L. Orford20%
J. Veltman17%
Mohamadou Kanté17%
Kyle Walker-Peters0%
J. Piroe0%
M. Solomon0%
Konstantinos Mavropanos0%
M. Hermansen0%
M. Kilman0%
V. Castellanos0%
O. Scarles0%
D. Mukasa0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
J. Bowen50%
V. Castellanos33%
Pablo Felipe33%
J. Piroe25%
Konstantinos Mavropanos25%
D. Mukasa25%
Kyle Walker-Peters0%
J. Veltman0%
M. Solomon0%
M. Hermansen0%
M. Kilman0%
Arne Engels0%
L. Orford0%
O. Scarles0%
Mohamadou Kanté0%
Wolves
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
R. Jiménez33%
M. Munetsi33%
Adam Armstrong33%
Fer López33%
Jordan James25%
André20%
Rodrigo Gomes17%
José Sá0%
Toti Gomes0%
Tommy Doyle0%
B. Traoré0%
T. Chirewa0%
David Møller Wolfe0%
Hugo Bueno0%
J. Tchatchoua0%
N. Djiga0%
M. Mane0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
B. Traoré33%
M. Mane33%
Jordan James25%
M. Munetsi17%
José Sá0%
R. Jiménez0%
Adam Armstrong0%
Toti Gomes0%
Tommy Doyle0%
T. Chirewa0%
David Møller Wolfe0%
André0%
Hugo Bueno0%
Rodrigo Gomes0%
J. Tchatchoua0%
N. Djiga0%
Fer López0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Tommy Doyle33%
Fer López33%
André20%
R. Jiménez17%
Rodrigo Gomes17%
José Sá0%
M. Munetsi0%
Adam Armstrong0%
Toti Gomes0%
B. Traoré0%
T. Chirewa0%
David Møller Wolfe0%
Hugo Bueno0%
J. Tchatchoua0%
N. Djiga0%
Jordan James0%
M. Mane0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
M. Mane50%
Fer López33%
R. Jiménez17%
M. Munetsi17%
José Sá0%
Adam Armstrong0%
Toti Gomes0%
Tommy Doyle0%
B. Traoré0%
T. Chirewa0%
David Møller Wolfe0%
André0%
Hugo Bueno0%
Rodrigo Gomes0%
J. Tchatchoua0%
N. Djiga0%
Jordan James0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
WHU (24)
€274m
WOL (31)
€273m
SOU (30)
€205m
MID (29)
€142m
BUR (28)
€115m
SHU (27)
€110m
NOR (34)
€107m
BIR (26)
€93m
SWA (27)
€91m
WAT (22)
€88m
MIL (29)
€85m
STK (25)
€79m
WRE (32)
€77m
QPR (28)
€71m
BRC (25)
€66m
DER (25)
€57m
WBA (22)
€52m
PRE (20)
€43m
BLB (27)
€36m
POR (30)
€32m
CHA (29)
€31m
CAR (25)
€29m
BOL (22)
€17m
LIN (24)
€12m
West Ham and Wolves have a similar squad value (both €274m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
WHU (7)
€84m
WOL (11)
€79m
MID (12)
€74m
SOU (10)
€72m
BUR (14)
€70m
SWA (13)
€56m
NOR (10)
€46m
BIR (9)
€46m
STK (8)
€35m
MIL (10)
€30m
QPR (11)
€29m
SHU (9)
€29m
BRC (8)
€29m
WAT (6)
€28m
DER (8)
€25m
CHA (13)
€18m
PRE (6)
€17m
CAR (12)
€15m
BLB (8)
€15m
WRE (9)
€15m
WBA (7)
€15m
POR (12)
€13m
BOL (6)
€4m
LIN (7)
€3m
West Ham's attack is €6m more valuable than Wolves's (€84m vs €79m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
WOL (6)
€79m
SOU (5)
€53m
WHU (5)
€48m
WAT (6)
€38m
SHU (5)
€32m
NOR (11)
€31m
MIL (8)
€29m
MID (5)
€27m
WRE (9)
€23m
WBA (6)
€22m
BRC (6)
€19m
QPR (5)
€15m
DER (6)
€14m
BIR (5)
€12m
STK (6)
€11m
SWA (4)
€9m
BUR (3)
€8m
BLB (7)
€7m
POR (5)
€5m
BOL (4)
€4m
CAR (3)
€4m
CHA (3)
€3m
PRE (3)
€3m
LIN (4)
€2m
West Ham's midfield is €31m less valuable than Wolves's (€48m vs €79m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
WHU (12)
€141m
WOL (14)
€116m
SOU (15)
€79m
SHU (13)
€49m
MID (12)
€41m
WRE (14)
€39m
BUR (11)
€37m
BIR (12)
€35m
STK (11)
€32m
NOR (13)
€29m
QPR (12)
€27m
SWA (10)
€26m
MIL (11)
€25m
PRE (11)
€22m
WAT (10)
€22m
BRC (11)
€18m
DER (11)
€18m
WBA (9)
€15m
POR (13)
€14m
BLB (12)
€14m
CHA (13)
€10m
CAR (10)
€10m
BOL (12)
€9m
LIN (13)
€6m
West Ham's defence is €26m more valuable than Wolves's (€141m vs €116m).
England: Championship 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full England: Championship stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Swansea
QPR
Charlton
Southampton
Middlesbrough
Bristol City
West Brom
Birmingham
Sheffield United
Millwall
Wrexham
Blackburn
Watford
Bolton
Derby
Lincoln
Cardiff
Norwich
Portsmouth
Stoke
Burnley
Preston