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Widzew Łódź vs Motor Lublin Result & Analysis

Date: 26/07/2026
Time: 15:30
Final 2-2
Widzew Łódź
Widzew Łódź
Vs
52%
26%
22%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Motor Lublin
Motor Lublin
Poland: Ekstraklasa
Referee: -
Match preview & prediction

Pythia gives Widzew Łódź a 52% win probability against Motor Lublin in the Poland: Ekstraklasa on 2026-07-26, with 26% for the draw and 22% for Motor Lublin. The model estimates around 2.9 total goals, with 2 the most likely total (25%) and 1-1 the most likely scoreline (12.2%). High-confidence angles (70%+): Over 21.5 fouls (85%), Over 1.5 (79%), Over 3.5 cards (71%).

Results analysis

Widzew Łódź finished 2-2 against Motor Lublin (Draw). Pythia had modelled a 52% home win, 26% draw and 22% away win. Picks that landed: Over 21.5 fouls (85%), Over 1.5 (79%), Over 3.5 cards (71%).

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Widzew Łódź win✗ Miss
52.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✓ Hit
25.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Motor Lublin win✗ Miss
22.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

Widzew ŁódźWidzew Łódź

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-300D00D11D10W12L20W01L31W01L21WA·ARK15/03H·GOR22/03A·RAK04/04H·NIE11/04A·RAD18/04H·MOT26/04A·LEG01/05H·LEC09/05A·KOR15/05H·PIA23/05
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.131.231.361.070.941.38
vs Stronger (9)0.781.441.001.600.501.25
vs Similar (21)1.291.141.560.781.081.42
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %27% (+0pp vs league)
This opponent (Motor Lublin) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Motor LublinMotor Lublin

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-421W10W11D11D23L02L01L40W33D04LA·NIE13/03H·ZAG20/03A·RAD06/04H·RAK12/04A·GKS17/04A·WID26/04H·LEC02/05A·WIS10/05H·CRA16/05A·LEG23/05
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.6
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.371.531.471.331.271.73
vs Stronger (8)0.752.000.751.000.753.00
vs Similar (22)1.591.361.731.451.451.27
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %20% (-7pp vs league)
This opponent (Widzew Łódź) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%12%18%25%7%014%125%222%316%49%57%6+
The model estimates around 2.9 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
79.0%
Under 1.5
21.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
54.5%
Under 2.5
45.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
32.2%
Under 3.5
67.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
56.2%
No
43.8%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.2%
2-1
9.8%
1-0
9.0%
2-0
9.0%
0-0
6.8%
1-2
6.0%
3-1
5.8%
2-2 ✓
5.3%
Widzew Łódź goals ↓
Motor Lublin goals →
01234
06.8%5.1%3.4%1.2%0.3%
19.0%12%6.0%2.2%0.6%
29.0%9.8%5.3%1.9%0.5%
35.3%5.8%3.1%1.1%0.3%
42.3%2.6%1.4%0.5%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Widzew Łódź goals (down), columns = Motor Lublin goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Lech Poznan
1.76
Gornik Zabrze
1.65
Jagiellonia
1.65
Raków Częstochowa
1.62
GKS Katowice
1.47
Legia Warszawa
1.44
Zaglebie Lubin
1.41
Wisla Plock
1.35
Pogon Szczecin
1.32
Radomiak Radom
1.29
Wisla Krakow
1.27
Korona Kielce
1.26
Motor Lublin
1.26
Widzew Łódź
1.24
Cracovia Krakow
1.24
Wieczysta Kraków
1.23
Piast Gliwice
1.21
Slask Wroclaw
1.12
Widzew Łódź is 0.03 points worse than Motor Lublin in terms of average points per game (1.24 vs 1.26).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Lech Poznan
1.82
Jagiellonia
1.65
Radomiak Radom
1.53
GKS Katowice
1.50
Raków Częstochowa
1.50
Gornik Zabrze
1.47
Pogon Szczecin
1.38
Motor Lublin
1.35
Zaglebie Lubin
1.32
Wisla Krakow
1.27
Wieczysta Kraków
1.24
Piast Gliwice
1.24
Legia Warszawa
1.24
Widzew Łódź
1.21
Korona Kielce
1.18
Cracovia Krakow
1.15
Slask Wroclaw
1.13
Wisla Plock
1.00
Widzew Łódź is 0.15 goals worse than Motor Lublin in terms of goals scored per game (1.21 vs 1.35).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Legia Warszawa
1.09
Zaglebie Lubin
1.12
Gornik Zabrze
1.12
Wisla Plock
1.12
Korona Kielce
1.18
Raków Częstochowa
1.18
Widzew Łódź
1.21
Jagiellonia
1.21
Cracovia Krakow
1.24
Lech Poznan
1.32
GKS Katowice
1.32
Piast Gliwice
1.35
Pogon Szczecin
1.44
Wisla Krakow
1.47
Wieczysta Kraków
1.51
Radomiak Radom
1.56
Motor Lublin
1.56
Slask Wroclaw
1.66
Widzew Łódź is 0.35 goals better than Motor Lublin in terms of goals conceded per game (1.21 vs 1.56).

⏱️ Possession

Avg possession %
Jagiellonia
58%
Lech Poznan
58%
Piast Gliwice
56%
Raków Częstochowa
54%
Legia Warszawa
52%
Pogon Szczecin
52%
Gornik Zabrze
52%
Motor Lublin
51%
Radomiak Radom
51%
Cracovia Krakow
50%
Widzew Łódź
49%
Korona Kielce
46%
GKS Katowice
46%
Wisla Plock
43%
Zaglebie Lubin
40%
Widzew Łódź is 2.5 percentage points worse than Motor Lublin in terms of average possession (49% vs 51%).

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Widzew ŁódźWidzew Łódź

For 3.6 · Against 4.4 · Total 8.0

🚩 Corners

12066232216462610154123812547108119311H·PIAA·KORH·LECA·LEGH·MOTA·RADH·NIEA·RAKH·GORA·ARK
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.3 · Against 2.5 · Total 4.8

🟨 Cards

70113352242124343311122676367623H·PIAA·KORH·LECA·LEGH·MOTA·RADH·NIEA·RAKH·GORA·ARK
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 15.9 · Against 15.7 · Total 31.6

⚠️ Fouls

41014161623111515151718151214191910179212030392630352733292641H·PIAA·KORH·LECA·LEGH·MOTA·RADH·NIEA·RAKH·GORA·ARK
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total

Motor LublinMotor Lublin

For 5.2 · Against 5.3 · Total 10.5

🚩 Corners

1603527673764747410645448913101011111698A·LEGH·CRAA·WISH·LECA·WIDA·GKSH·RAKA·RADH·ZAGA·NIE
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 3.0 · Against 2.0 · Total 5.0

🟨 Cards

10021252212623364411337438331054A·LEGH·CRAA·WISA·WIDA·GKSH·RAKA·RADA·NIEH·KORA·PIA
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 13.5 · Against 12.7 · Total 26.2

⚠️ Fouls

3501411141212121081817141213714151314131925262418352620292732A·LEGH·CRAA·WISH·LECA·WIDA·GKSH·RAKA·RADH·ZAGA·NIE
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total

Widzew ŁódźWidzew Łódź

SplitCornersCardsFouls
TotHmeAwyTotHmeAwyTotHmeAwy
Overall (50)9.19.09.35.05.34.726.026.225.7
vs Stronger (15)9.49.29.65.76.25.125.626.524.6
vs Similar (34)9.08.99.24.74.94.626.326.426.2
vs Weaker (1)8.08.0-4.04.0-21.021.0-
% over line42%44%40%68%72%64%72%72%72%
% under line58%56%60%32%28%36%28%28%28%
This opponent (Motor Lublin) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Motor LublinMotor Lublin

SplitCornersCardsFouls
TotHmeAwyTotHmeAwyTotHmeAwy
Overall (50)10.310.010.64.84.45.125.624.726.5
vs Stronger (11)9.19.88.23.12.73.624.623.026.6
vs Similar (37)10.610.111.25.15.15.225.725.226.2
vs Weaker (2)10.59.012.07.02.012.029.026.032.0
% over line60%56%64%58%52%64%86%84%88%
% under line40%44%36%42%48%36%14%16%12%
This opponent (Widzew Łódź) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

🚩 Total Corners

Match total corners / game
Pogon Szczecin
10.6
Zaglebie Lubin
10.6
Motor Lublin
10.3
Gornik Zabrze
10.3
GKS Katowice
10.2
Korona Kielce
10.1
Slask Wroclaw
10.1
Lech Poznan
10.1
Radomiak Radom
10.1
Cracovia Krakow
9.9
Piast Gliwice
9.8
Jagiellonia
9.8
Wisla Plock
9.7
Legia Warszawa
9.5
Widzew Łódź
9.1
Raków Częstochowa
8.2
Wieczysta Kraków
7.0

🟨 Total Cards

Match total cards / game
Wieczysta Kraków
10.0
Widzew Łódź
5.1
Motor Lublin
5.1
Raków Częstochowa
5.0
Radomiak Radom
4.9
Slask Wroclaw
4.8
Jagiellonia
4.6
Cracovia Krakow
4.6
Zaglebie Lubin
4.4
Legia Warszawa
4.3
Wisla Plock
4.2
Korona Kielce
4.0
Pogon Szczecin
4.0
Gornik Zabrze
3.9
Piast Gliwice
3.8
Lech Poznan
3.8
GKS Katowice
3.7
Wisla Krakow
3.2

⚠️ Total Fouls

Match total fouls / game
Wieczysta Kraków
38.0
Radomiak Radom
27.7
Jagiellonia
26.7
Widzew Łódź
26.0
Legia Warszawa
25.8
Motor Lublin
25.6
Cracovia Krakow
25.3
Korona Kielce
25.2
Piast Gliwice
25.0
Slask Wroclaw
24.9
Raków Częstochowa
24.9
Zaglebie Lubin
24.4
Pogon Szczecin
23.7
Lech Poznan
23.3
GKS Katowice
23.1
Gornik Zabrze
22.5
Wisla Plock
22.4
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
50.4%
Under 9.5
49.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
70.9%
Under 3.5
29.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
84.7%
Under 21.5
15.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🔢 6. Odd / Even

🥅 7. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 8. Handicap

🔥 9. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 21.5 fouls84.7%-------✓ Hit
Over 1.579.0%-------✓ Hit
Over 3.5 cards70.9%-------✓ Hit

💰 10. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
JAG (29)
€62m
LP (31)
€53m
RC (33)
€48m
LW (35)
€40m
CK (38)
€33m
GZ (28)
€29m
WŁ (24)
€25m
PS (31)
€22m
WP (33)
€19m
ML (28)
€18m
ZL (28)
€18m
RR (31)
€16m
KK (30)
€16m
WK (24)
€13m
WK (22)
€12m
GK (33)
€11m
PG (27)
€10m
SW (22)
€7m
Widzew Łódź's squad is €7m more valuable than Motor Lublin's (€25m vs €18m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
JAG (17)
€43m
LP (14)
€21m
RC (11)
€18m
GZ (13)
€17m
WŁ (12)
€15m
CK (16)
€15m
LW (13)
€12m
PS (15)
€11m
ML (12)
€10m
ZL (10)
€10m
RR (13)
€7m
WK (8)
€6m
WK (8)
€5m
PG (13)
€4m
WP (9)
€4m
KK (10)
€4m
GK (12)
€3m
SW (5)
€2m
Widzew Łódź's attack is €5m more valuable than Motor Lublin's (€15m vs €10m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RC (13)
€18m
LP (5)
€8m
LW (10)
€7m
WP (12)
€6m
KK (10)
€6m
GK (11)
€5m
WŁ (4)
€5m
ZL (7)
€4m
GZ (3)
€4m
SW (9)
€3m
CK (7)
€3m
RR (7)
€2m
ML (5)
€2m
PS (4)
€2m
WK (4)
€2m
JAG (3)
€2m
WK (3)
€1m
PG (2)
€1m
Widzew Łódź's midfield is €3m more valuable than Motor Lublin's (€5m vs €2m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LP (12)
€23m
LW (12)
€21m
JAG (9)
€17m
CK (15)
€15m
RC (9)
€12m
PS (12)
€9m
WP (12)
€9m
GZ (12)
€7m
RR (11)
€7m
KK (10)
€7m
ML (11)
€6m
WK (12)
€5m
PG (12)
€5m
WK (11)
€5m
WŁ (8)
€5m
ZL (11)
€4m
GK (10)
€3m
SW (8)
€2m
Widzew Łódź's defence is €2m less valuable than Motor Lublin's (€5m vs €6m).

🤝 11. Games History

Head-to-head

Widzew Łódź vs Motor Lublin · H/A from WŁ
DateH/AGameScore
26/04/26HWŁ Vs Motor Lublin2-0
24/10/25AMotor Lublin Vs WŁ3-0
19/04/25HWŁ Vs Motor Lublin1-2
19/10/24AMotor Lublin Vs WŁ3-4

Widzew ŁódźWidzew Łódź

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
23/05/26HWŁ Vs Piast Gliwice2-1
15/05/26AKorona Kielce Vs WŁ1-0
09/05/26HWŁ Vs Lechia Gdansk3-1
01/05/26ALegia Warszawa Vs WŁ1-0
26/04/26HWŁ Vs Motor Lublin2-0
18/04/26ARadomiak Radom Vs WŁ2-1
11/04/26HWŁ Vs Nieciecza1-0
04/04/26ARaków Częstochowa Vs WŁ1-1
22/03/26HWŁ Vs Gornik Zabrze0-0
15/03/26AArka Gdynia Vs WŁ0-0

Motor LublinMotor Lublin

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
23/05/26ALegia Warszawa Vs ML4-0
16/05/26HML Vs Cracovia Krakow3-3
10/05/26AWisla Plock Vs ML0-4
02/05/26HML Vs Lech Poznan0-1
26/04/26AWidzew Łódź Vs ML2-0
17/04/26AGKS Katowice Vs ML3-2
12/04/26HML Vs Raków Częstochowa1-1
06/04/26ARadomiak Radom Vs ML1-1
20/03/26HML Vs Zaglebie Lubin1-0
13/03/26ANieciecza Vs ML1-2

📊 12. Overall Statistics

Widzew Łódź
Widzew Łódź
Poland: Ekstraklasa
Recent: 4 Wins / 3 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWLWLW1.14
HomeDWWWW1.64
AwayDDLLL0.64
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %32%48%16%
AVG goals2.402.282.52
Over 1.5 %72%72%72%
Over 2.5 %46%40%52%
Over 3.5 %18%20%16%
Scored1.101.240.96
Conceded1.301.041.56
BTTS48%44%52%
Clean Sheet30%40%20%
Corners9.128.969.28
Cards5.105.284.92
Motor Lublin
Motor Lublin
Poland: Ekstraklasa
Recent: 3 Wins / 3 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLLWDL1.28
HomeDWDLD1.40
AwayDLLWL1.16
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %32%32%32%
AVG goals2.982.843.12
Over 1.5 %78%72%84%
Over 2.5 %54%44%64%
Over 3.5 %36%32%40%
Scored1.341.481.20
Conceded1.641.361.92
BTTS58%64%52%
Clean Sheet20%28%12%
Corners10.289.9610.60
Cards5.065.005.12

🏆 13. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Legia WarszawaLegia Warszawa410
75%
2.5
102+8
3.0
75%
50%
50%
7.5
25%
2.3
0%
29.5
75%
40
127212.50.5
52%
2Gornik ZabrzeGornik Zabrze39
100%
3.0
73+4
3.3
100%
100%
33%
9.3
33%
6.3
67%
27.7
100%
29
17472.31.0
52%
3Lech PoznanLech Poznan37
67%
2.3
51+4
2.0
67%
67%
0%
11.7
67%
3.3
33%
25.0
67%
53
218231.70.3
58%
4Pogon SzczecinPogon Szczecin36
67%
2.0
52+3
2.3
67%
33%
33%
8.7
33%
2.7
0%
23.3
33%
22
11291.70.7
52%
5Zaglebie LubinZaglebie Lubin36
67%
2.0
54+1
3.0
100%
67%
33%
13.5
100%
2.0
0%
26.0
50%
18
10441.71.3
40%
6Wisla KrakowWisla Krakow46
50%
1.5
88+0
4.0
100%
100%
25%
12.5
75%
4.2
50%
25.0
75%
13
6252.02.0
-
7JagielloniaJagiellonia36
67%
2.0
33+0
2.0
67%
33%
0%
8.7
33%
3.7
33%
26.0
67%
62
432171.01.0
58%
8Widzew ŁódźWidzew Łódź45
25%
1.2
54+1
2.2
75%
50%
25%
10.0
67%
5.7
100%
28.3
100%
25
15551.21.0
49%
9Cracovia KrakowCracovia Krakow45
25%
1.2
23-1
1.2
50%
25%
0%
12.2
100%
3.0
50%
22.0
50%
33
153150.50.8
50%
10Korona KielceKorona Kielce34
33%
1.3
33+0
2.0
67%
33%
0%
7.5
0%
1.5
0%
33.0
100%
16
4671.01.0
46%
11Wisla PlockWisla Plock34
33%
1.3
33+0
2.0
67%
67%
0%
11.3
67%
4.0
67%
26.7
100%
19
4691.01.0
43%
12Slask WroclawSlask Wroclaw44
25%
1.0
45-1
2.2
75%
75%
0%
10.3
67%
3.3
33%
23.7
67%
7
2321.01.2
-
13Motor LublinMotor Lublin44
25%
1.0
57-2
3.0
75%
75%
50%
5.8
0%
4.0
50%
21.5
50%
18
10261.21.8
51%
14GKS KatowiceGKS Katowice33
33%
1.0
44+0
2.7
67%
67%
33%
8.7
67%
6.0
100%
25.7
100%
11
3531.31.3
46%
15Wieczysta KrakówWieczysta Kraków33
33%
1.0
67-1
4.3
100%
100%
33%
9.0
33%
4.7
33%
26.3
33%
12
5152.02.3
-
16Piast GliwicePiast Gliwice43
25%
0.8
712-5
4.8
100%
75%
50%
12.2
50%
2.0
0%
25.2
50%
10
4151.83.0
56%
17Radomiak RadomRadomiak Radom43
25%
0.8
412-8
4.0
100%
100%
75%
7.0
25%
7.5
75%
29.5
100%
16
7271.03.0
51%
18Raków CzęstochowaRaków Częstochowa30
0%
0.0
36-3
3.0
100%
100%
0%
9.3
33%
2.7
33%
25.0
100%
48
1818121.02.0
54%
Poland: Ekstraklasa 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Poland: Ekstraklasa stats & trends →

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