Willem II’s recent run of two straight defeats has left the club looking fragile at home, while Heerenveen, fresh from a loss, have shown a sharper attack on the road. The model’s most confident outcome is an away win, with a 56 % chance versus 19 % for a home win and 25 % for a draw. The expected goal tally sits at 2.9, and the single most likely scoreline is 1-1, carrying a 11.7 % probability. Willem II averages 1.4 goals scored and 1.07 conceded against similarly ranked opponents, whereas Heerenveen’s away form shows 2.0 goals scored and 1.56 conceded. The model’s suggested picks include Under 7.5 goals at 99 %, Home under 2.5 HT goals at 98.5 %, Home under 3.5 goals at 97.9 %, Under 6.5 at 97.2 %, Home under 2.5 2H goals at 96.8 %, Away under 2.5 HT goals at 94.9 %, Away under 2.5 2H goals at 94.0 %, and Under 5.5 at 92.7 %. Each selection carries its own probability, and where an edge is noted the model highlights a small advantage over the market.
Results analysis
The match ended 2-2, a draw that shocked the pre-match favourite, Heerenveen, who had a 54% chance of winning. The model’s call was therefore wrong. Willem II and Heerenveen both finished the game level, each scoring twice. The model’s selections all hit: Under 7.5 goals at 99.1%, Home under 2.5 HT goals at 98.2%, Home under 3.5 goals at 97.8%, Under 6.5 at 97.3%, Home under 2.5 2H goals at 96.9%, Away under 2.5 2H goals at 94.6%, Away under 2.5 HT goals at 94.6% and Under 5.5 at 93.0%. Both sides were coming off draws, with Willem II’s last five games showing DLLWL and Heerenveen’s last five DLDWL. The final score of 2-2 matched the model’s most likely 1-2 and 0-2 outcomes, but the upset of a draw remains the headline.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Willem II win✗ Miss
20.6%
Avg Implied 24.2% · @ 3.89
Edge
-3.6%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
4.02
Betano
4.00
Dafabet
4.00
1xBet
3.96
Unibet
3.95
Draw✓ Hit
25.2%
Avg Implied 22.7% · @ 4.16
Edge
+2.5%
Best 5 market prices
Betano
4.45
Bet365
4.33
Dafabet
4.30
1xBet
4.27
Pinnacle
4.25
Heerenveen win✗ Miss
54.2%
Avg Implied 53.1% · @ 1.77
Edge
+1.0%
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.82
Pinnacle
1.81
Dafabet
1.80
Superbet
1.80
1xBet
1.80
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Willem II
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.60
1.13
1.38
1.25
1.86
1.00
vs Stronger (1)
1.00
4.00
1.00
4.00
-
-
vs Similar (28)
1.57
1.04
1.40
1.07
1.77
1.00
vs Weaker (1)
3.00
1.00
-
-
3.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
37% (+13pp vs league)
This opponent (Heerenveen) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Heerenveen
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.67
1.60
1.79
1.14
1.56
2.00
vs Stronger (9)
1.33
2.11
1.25
1.25
1.40
2.80
vs Similar (20)
1.75
1.40
1.89
1.11
1.64
1.64
vs Weaker (1)
3.00
1.00
3.00
1.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
20% (-4pp vs league)
This opponent (Willem II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.9 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
78.9%
@ 1.11-5.2%
Under 1.5
21.1%
@ 5.87+5.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.15
Superbet
1.14
Pinnacle
1.14
Unibet
1.12
Bet365
1.12
Under
Betfair
6.50
Pinnacle
6.15
BetVictor
6.00
Bet365
6.00
Superbet
5.90
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
54.3%
@ 1.43-11.2%
Under 2.5
45.7%
@ 2.72+11.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
1.48
Pinnacle
1.47
Betano
1.47
Superbet
1.46
10Bet
1.44
Under
Betfair
2.88
Betano
2.80
Pinnacle
2.79
BetVictor
2.75
10Bet
2.75
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
32.0%
@ 2.11-12.8%
Under 3.5
68.0%
@ 1.71+12.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
SBO
2.19
Unibet
2.17
Betano
2.15
Pinnacle
2.15
Superbet
2.12
Under
Pinnacle
1.76
1xBet
1.75
Betfair
1.75
Betano
1.75
Marathonbet
1.72
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
55.3%
@ 1.43-9.4%
No
44.7%
@ 2.63+9.4%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Betano
1.47
Superbet
1.46
William Hil
1.44
Betfair
1.44
Bet365
1.44
No
BetVictor
2.70
Betfair
2.70
1xBet
2.66
Bet365
2.62
10Bet
2.62
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.0%@ 8.11+6.4%
1-2
9.9%@ 7.98+4.2%
0-2
9.4%@ 10.66+5.2%
0-1
9.3%@ 10.66+5.1%
0-0
6.9%@ 17.67+4.3%
1-3
5.9%@ 11.26+1.9%
2-1
5.7%@ 12.00+1.9%
0-3
5.7%@ 15.11+2.7%
Willem II goals ↓
Heerenveen goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
6.9%
9.3%
9.4%
5.7%
2.6%
1
4.9%
12%
9.9%
5.9%
2.7%
2
3.2%
5.7%
5.1%
3.1%
1.4%
3
1.1%
2.0%
1.8%
1.1%
0.5%
4
0.3%
0.5%
0.5%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Willem II goals (down), columns = Heerenveen goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
PSV Eindhoven
2.47
Feyenoord
1.91
NEC Nijmegen
1.74
Twente
1.71
Ajax
1.67
Utrecht
1.58
AZ Alkmaar
1.53
Heerenveen
1.42
Groningen
1.37
Sparta Rotterdam
1.26
Fortuna Sittard
1.15
Willem II
1.14
Excelsior
1.12
GO Ahead Eagles
1.12
Telstar
1.09
PEC Zwolle
1.09
ADO Den Haag
1.08
Cambuur
1.03
Willem II is 0.28 points worse than Heerenveen in terms of average points per game (1.14 vs 1.42).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
PSV Eindhoven
2.97
NEC Nijmegen
2.26
Feyenoord
2.06
Ajax
1.78
Twente
1.74
AZ Alkmaar
1.71
Heerenveen
1.64
Utrecht
1.61
GO Ahead Eagles
1.59
Telstar
1.44
Fortuna Sittard
1.44
Groningen
1.40
Willem II
1.32
PEC Zwolle
1.29
Excelsior
1.26
ADO Den Haag
1.25
Cambuur
1.20
Sparta Rotterdam
1.18
Willem II is 0.32 goals worse than Heerenveen in terms of goals scored per game (1.32 vs 1.64).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Ajax
1.14
Twente
1.18
Utrecht
1.22
Feyenoord
1.29
PSV Eindhoven
1.32
Groningen
1.34
AZ Alkmaar
1.50
NEC Nijmegen
1.56
GO Ahead Eagles
1.56
Heerenveen
1.61
Telstar
1.62
Excelsior
1.65
Sparta Rotterdam
1.82
Fortuna Sittard
1.85
Willem II
1.90
ADO Den Haag
2.01
PEC Zwolle
2.09
Cambuur
2.10
Willem II is 0.29 goals worse than Heerenveen in terms of goals conceded per game (1.90 vs 1.61).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
PSV Eindhoven
61%
NEC Nijmegen
57%
Ajax
56%
Twente
54%
AZ Alkmaar
53%
Feyenoord
53%
Heerenveen
51%
Groningen
50%
GO Ahead Eagles
49%
Excelsior
48%
Sparta Rotterdam
47%
Utrecht
47%
Telstar
45%
PEC Zwolle
45%
Fortuna Sittard
45%
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Willem II
For 4.9 · Against 4.7 · Total 9.6
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.4 · Against 2.1 · Total 3.5
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 9.6 · Against 10.7 · Total 20.3
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Heerenveen
For 5.0 · Against 5.8 · Total 10.8
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.2 · Against 1.6 · Total 2.8
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 9.7 · Against 8.0 · Total 17.7
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Willem II
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.2
10.0
10.6
2.6
2.7
2.6
22.2
23.6
20.8
vs Stronger (1)
3.0
3.0
-
1.0
1.0
-
24.0
24.0
-
vs Similar (47)
10.3
10.1
10.5
2.7
2.6
2.7
22.1
23.4
20.9
vs Weaker (2)
13.0
14.0
12.0
3.0
6.0
0.0
23.5
27.0
20.0
% over line
57%
52%
62%
30%
31%
29%
57%
74%
38%
% under line
43%
48%
38%
70%
69%
71%
43%
26%
62%
This opponent (Heerenveen) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Heerenveen
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.0
9.8
10.1
3.0
3.0
2.9
20.2
19.4
21.0
vs Stronger (13)
10.1
10.4
9.9
2.7
1.8
3.2
19.5
18.0
20.4
vs Similar (34)
10.1
9.5
10.6
3.1
3.5
2.8
20.8
19.9
21.7
vs Weaker (3)
9.0
12.0
7.5
2.0
1.0
2.5
17.3
18.0
17.0
% over line
52%
57%
48%
32%
35%
30%
38%
30%
44%
% under line
48%
43%
52%
68%
65%
70%
62%
70%
56%
This opponent (Willem II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
GO Ahead Eagles
11.3
PSV Eindhoven
11.2
Fortuna Sittard
10.8
Sparta Rotterdam
10.7
Telstar
10.6
Willem II
10.6
ADO Den Haag
10.4
AZ Alkmaar
10.4
Groningen
10.1
Cambuur
10.1
Feyenoord
10.0
Heerenveen
10.0
Twente
9.9
NEC Nijmegen
9.9
Utrecht
9.7
Ajax
9.7
Excelsior
9.4
PEC Zwolle
9.4
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Cambuur
4.0
NEC Nijmegen
3.9
Twente
3.8
Sparta Rotterdam
3.8
Feyenoord
3.8
AZ Alkmaar
3.7
ADO Den Haag
3.7
Utrecht
3.7
Ajax
3.7
Groningen
3.6
PSV Eindhoven
3.4
Fortuna Sittard
3.4
PEC Zwolle
3.4
GO Ahead Eagles
3.3
Telstar
3.3
Willem II
3.2
Excelsior
3.1
Heerenveen
3.0
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
ADO Den Haag
26.8
Cambuur
26.7
NEC Nijmegen
23.9
Fortuna Sittard
23.4
Utrecht
23.0
Feyenoord
22.8
AZ Alkmaar
22.6
PEC Zwolle
22.5
Willem II
22.5
Telstar
22.5
Ajax
21.8
Excelsior
21.7
Twente
20.8
Groningen
20.7
Sparta Rotterdam
20.6
Heerenveen
20.2
GO Ahead Eagles
18.9
PSV Eindhoven
18.1
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
59.1%
@ 1.60+1.5%
Under 9.5
40.9%
@ 2.18-1.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.65
Pinnacle
1.63
Betano
1.62
Unibet
1.61
1xBet
1.59
Under
Betano
2.22
Pinnacle
2.21
Marathonbet
2.20
Betfair
2.20
1xBet
2.16
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
33.9%
@ 2.72-0.2%
Under 3.5
66.1%
@ 1.41+0.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
2.95
Betano
2.95
Superbet
2.25
Under
Superbet
1.52
Betano
1.37
Unibet
1.33
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Under
Over 21.5
42.9%
@ 1.76-8.0%
Under 21.5
57.1%
@ 1.82+8.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.76
Under
Superbet
1.82
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Willem II or Draw✓ Hit
45.8%
Avg Implied 46.8% · @ 2.01
Edge
-0.9%
21%
25%
54%
covers Willem II + Draw
Best 5 market prices
SBO
2.08
Betano
2.07
1xBet
2.03
Superbet
2.02
Marathonbet
2.00
Willem II or Heerenveen✗ Miss
74.8%
Avg Implied 77.8% · @ 1.21
Edge
-3.0%
21%
25%
54%
covers Willem II + Heerenveen
Best 5 market prices
Unibet
1.24
1xBet
1.23
Superbet
1.23
William Hil
1.22
Betano
1.22
Draw or Heerenveen✓ Hit
79.4%
Avg Implied 75.4% · @ 1.25
Edge
+4.0%
21%
25%
54%
covers Draw + Heerenveen
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.28
1xBet
1.26
Superbet
1.26
William Hil
1.25
Bet365
1.25
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Willem II over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
64.8%
@ 1.28-7.9%
Under
35.2%
@ 3.41+7.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.30
Bet365
1.30
Superbet
1.29
Pinnacle
1.29
10Bet
1.28
Under
Pinnacle
3.63
BetVictor
3.50
Betfair
3.50
10Bet
3.40
Marathonbet
3.40
Willem II over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
28.1%
@ 2.36-11.4%
Under
71.9%
@ 1.54+11.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.47
Superbet
2.40
Unibet
2.38
BetVictor
2.38
Bet365
2.38
Under
Pinnacle
1.58
Betfair
1.57
Marathonbet
1.55
10Bet
1.55
Betano
1.55
Willem II over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
8.9%
@ 5.37-8.4%
Under
91.1%
@ 1.12+8.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
6.00
BetVictor
5.50
Superbet
5.45
Marathonbet
5.40
1xBet
5.40
Under
Betano
1.15
Betfair
1.14
Superbet
1.13
Bet365
1.12
10Bet
1.12
Willem II over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
2.2%
@ 13.50-4.9%
Under
97.8%
@ 1.03+4.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
17.00
Superbet
14.00
Betano
9.50
Under
Betano
1.04
Bet365
1.02
Superbet
1.02
Heerenveen over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
83.6%
@ 1.09-1.5%
Under
16.4%
@ 6.23+1.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.11
Bet365
1.10
Betfair
1.10
Superbet
1.10
10Bet
1.09
Under
Bet365
7.00
BetVictor
6.50
Superbet
6.30
10Bet
6.25
1xBet
6.00
Heerenveen over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
53.9%
@ 1.53-7.1%
Under
46.1%
@ 2.40+7.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.57
Betano
1.55
Superbet
1.54
Unibet
1.53
Marathonbet
1.53
Under
Betfair
2.50
Pinnacle
2.48
1xBet
2.41
Marathonbet
2.41
BetVictor
2.40
Heerenveen over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
27.1%
@ 2.67-7.8%
Under
72.9%
@ 1.43+7.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.76
Betfair
2.75
Unibet
2.70
Marathonbet
2.68
1xBet
2.68
Under
Betano
1.45
Pinnacle
1.45
Marathonbet
1.44
1xBet
1.44
Superbet
1.44
Heerenveen over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
11.0%
@ 5.32-6.5%
Under
89.0%
@ 1.13+6.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
5.50
Betfair
5.50
Unibet
5.40
1xBet
5.35
Marathonbet
5.35
Under
Betano
1.15
Superbet
1.14
Bet365
1.14
Betfair
1.13
Marathonbet
1.11
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Willem II, so a minus line means Willem II give that many goals of a start and Heerenveen receive them. At -1, Willem II must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Willem II win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Willem II)Actual: Heerenveen
Willem II -2
2.2%
@ 17.20-3.1%
Draw -2
5.7%
@ 10.56-3.0%
Heerenveen +2
92.1%
@ 1.06+6.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
21.00
Betfair
18.00
Superbet
16.00
Unibet
16.00
10Bet
15.00
Draw
Bet365
13.00
Betfair
11.00
Unibet
10.00
Superbet
9.80
10Bet
9.00
Away
Bet365
1.06
10Bet
1.06
Betfair
1.06
Unibet
1.06
Superbet
1.06
Handicap -1 (Willem II)Actual: Heerenveen
Willem II -1
7.9%
@ 8.00-3.4%
Draw -1
12.7%
@ 5.88-2.7%
Heerenveen +1
79.4%
@ 1.24+6.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
10.00
Betfair
7.50
Unibet
7.50
10Bet
7.50
Marathonbet
7.50
Draw
Bet365
6.50
Betfair
6.00
Marathonbet
5.80
Unibet
5.60
10Bet
5.50
Away
Betfair
1.25
10Bet
1.25
Marathonbet
1.24
Unibet
1.22
Bet365
1.22
Handicap +1 (Willem II)Actual: Willem II
Willem II +1
45.8%
@ 1.98+0.9%
Draw +1
22.8%
@ 3.87-0.2%
Heerenveen -1
31.3%
@ 2.79-0.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Superbet
2.00
10Bet
2.00
Bet365
2.00
Marathonbet
2.00
Unibet
1.98
Draw
Betfair
4.00
Bet365
4.00
Superbet
3.85
Marathonbet
3.84
10Bet
3.80
Away
Unibet
2.85
10Bet
2.80
Betfair
2.80
Superbet
2.77
Bet365
2.75
Handicap +2 (Willem II)Actual: Willem II
Willem II +2
68.7%
@ 1.37+3.5%
Draw +2
17.0%
@ 4.99-1.0%
Heerenveen -2
14.4%
@ 5.32-2.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.40
Superbet
1.39
10Bet
1.38
Betfair
1.36
Unibet
1.36
Draw
Marathonbet
5.25
Bet365
5.00
10Bet
5.00
Betfair
5.00
Superbet
4.90
Away
Bet365
5.50
Betfair
5.50
Unibet
5.50
10Bet
5.25
Marathonbet
5.15
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Willem II
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.50
0.56
0.56
1.14
0.43
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
-
-
vs Similar (28)
0.79
0.50
0.60
0.53
1.00
0.46
vs Weaker (1)
3.00
0.00
-
-
3.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
60% (+36pp vs league)
This opponent (Heerenveen) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Heerenveen
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.73
0.79
0.57
0.56
0.88
vs Stronger (9)
0.67
1.22
0.75
1.00
0.60
1.40
vs Similar (20)
0.65
0.55
0.78
0.44
0.55
0.64
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
53% (+29pp vs league)
This opponent (Willem II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
71.0%
@ 1.22-5.1%
Under 0.5
29.0%
@ 3.88+5.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.26
Superbet
1.24
Unibet
1.22
William Hil
1.22
Bet365
1.22
Under
Superbet
4.00
William Hil
4.00
Bet365
4.00
Betfair
4.00
1xBet
3.88
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
34.8%
@ 2.09-10.0%
Under 1.5
65.2%
@ 1.70+10.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.18
Pinnacle
2.14
Unibet
2.12
SBO
2.11
1xBet
2.10
Under
SBO
1.74
Betfair
1.73
Superbet
1.72
Pinnacle
1.72
10Bet
1.70
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
13.2%
@ 4.44-7.7%
Under 2.5
86.8%
@ 1.18+7.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
4.60
Betfair
4.50
Bet365
4.50
Superbet
4.45
Betano
4.45
Under
Betano
1.20
Superbet
1.20
William Hil
1.20
10Bet
1.18
Bet365
1.18
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Willem II over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
43.1%
@ 2.07-1.9%
Under
56.9%
@ 1.69+1.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.15
Unibet
2.10
Superbet
2.10
Betano
2.07
10Bet
2.05
Under
10Bet
1.73
1xBet
1.71
Pinnacle
1.71
Betano
1.70
Marathonbet
1.68
Willem II over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
10.2%
@ 6.38-4.3%
Under
89.8%
@ 1.08+4.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
6.75
Unibet
6.50
Superbet
6.50
1xBet
6.30
10Bet
6.25
Under
Betano
1.11
Unibet
1.08
10Bet
1.08
Superbet
1.08
1xBet
1.07
Willem II over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
1.8%
@ 17.00-3.8%
Under
98.2%
@ 1.02+3.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
22.00
Betano
12.00
Under
Betano
1.02
Heerenveen over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
49.2%
@ 1.58-9.9%
Under
50.8%
@ 2.28+9.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
1.63
Betano
1.60
Unibet
1.58
Pinnacle
1.57
10Bet
1.57
Under
Pinnacle
2.42
Superbet
2.32
1xBet
2.30
10Bet
2.30
Betano
2.25
Heerenveen over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
17.6%
@ 3.69-7.4%
Under
82.4%
@ 1.23+7.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
3.80
Betano
3.75
Marathonbet
3.74
10Bet
3.70
1xBet
3.60
Under
Superbet
1.25
Betano
1.25
1xBet
1.23
10Bet
1.22
Marathonbet
1.22
Heerenveen over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
5.4%
@ 9.72-4.2%
Under
94.6%
@ 1.03+4.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
10.50
Unibet
10.50
Superbet
9.40
Betano
8.50
Under
Betano
1.05
Superbet
1.04
Unibet
1.03
1xBet
1.01
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Willem II
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.63
0.81
0.69
0.71
0.57
vs Stronger (1)
1.00
3.00
1.00
3.00
-
-
vs Similar (28)
0.79
0.54
0.80
0.53
0.77
0.54
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
1.00
-
-
0.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
60% (+36pp vs league)
This opponent (Heerenveen) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Heerenveen
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
0.87
1.00
0.57
1.00
1.12
vs Stronger (9)
0.67
0.89
0.50
0.25
0.80
1.40
vs Similar (20)
1.10
0.85
1.11
0.67
1.09
1.00
vs Weaker (1)
2.00
1.00
2.00
1.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Willem II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
80.9%
@ 1.12-2.2%
Under 0.5
19.1%
@ 5.51+2.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.14
Superbet
1.14
William Hil
1.14
Bet365
1.12
Unibet
1.12
Under
Bet365
6.00
10Bet
5.60
1xBet
5.55
Superbet
5.55
Marathonbet
5.55
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
50.6%
@ 1.65-6.0%
Under 1.5
49.4%
@ 2.15+6.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.68
Bet365
1.67
William Hil
1.67
1xBet
1.65
Marathonbet
1.65
Under
Betano
2.25
10Bet
2.20
Marathonbet
2.16
1xBet
2.16
Superbet
2.15
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
23.4%
@ 2.96-8.0%
Under 2.5
76.6%
@ 1.35+8.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
3.05
Bet365
3.00
William Hil
3.00
Unibet
3.00
Marathonbet
2.92
Under
Betano
1.40
Superbet
1.36
Bet365
1.36
10Bet
1.36
William Hil
1.35
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Willem II over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
48.4%
@ 1.75-4.7%
Under
51.6%
@ 1.98+4.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.76
Betano
1.75
Marathonbet
1.74
1xBet
1.73
Under
Betano
2.00
1xBet
2.00
Marathonbet
1.95
Superbet
1.95
Willem II over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
15.4%
@ 4.59-4.7%
Under
84.6%
@ 1.16+4.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
4.80
Superbet
4.70
1xBet
4.60
10Bet
4.50
Betano
4.35
Under
Betano
1.19
10Bet
1.17
1xBet
1.15
Superbet
1.15
Marathonbet
1.14
Willem II over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
3.1%
@ 11.88-4.9%
Under
96.9%
@ 1.02+4.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
14.00
Betano
9.75
Under
Betano
1.03
Superbet
1.01
Heerenveen over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
62.9%
@ 1.38-4.7%
Under
37.1%
@ 2.86+4.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.38
Betano
1.38
1xBet
1.37
Under
Betano
2.92
1xBet
2.85
Superbet
2.82
Heerenveen over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
23.7%
@ 2.73-10.3%
Under
76.3%
@ 1.40+10.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
2.80
Marathonbet
2.76
1xBet
2.70
10Bet
2.70
Betano
2.67
Under
Betano
1.44
1xBet
1.41
10Bet
1.40
Superbet
1.39
Marathonbet
1.38
Heerenveen over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
5.4%
@ 6.47-8.9%
Under
94.6%
@ 1.08+8.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
6.80
Superbet
6.70
Betano
5.90
Under
Betano
1.11
Superbet
1.07
1xBet
1.06
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 7.5
99.1%
1.01
Betano
1.02
1xBet
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
+3.4%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 HT goals
98.2%
1.02
Betano
1.02
-
-
-
-
+3.8%
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
97.8%
1.03
Betano
1.04
Bet365
1.02
Superbet
1.02
-
-
+4.9%
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
97.3%
1.03
Betano
1.05
Bet365
1.04
Superbet
1.04
1xBet
1.04
Betfair
1.03
+5.1%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 2H goals
96.9%
1.02
Betano
1.03
Superbet
1.01
-
-
-
+4.9%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 2H goals
94.6%
1.08
Betano
1.11
Superbet
1.07
1xBet
1.06
-
-
+8.9%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 HT goals
94.6%
1.03
Betano
1.05
Superbet
1.04
Unibet
1.03
1xBet
1.01
-
+4.2%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
93.0%
1.10
Betano
1.13
Pinnacle
1.13
Superbet
1.12
Bet365
1.11
10Bet
1.11
+7.7%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards
92.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
92.1%
1.06
Bet365
1.06
10Bet
1.06
Betfair
1.06
Unibet
1.06
Superbet
1.06
+6.0%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 goals
91.1%
1.12
Betano
1.15
Betfair
1.14
Superbet
1.13
Bet365
1.12
10Bet
1.12
+8.4%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 HT goals
89.8%
1.08
Betano
1.11
Unibet
1.08
10Bet
1.08
Superbet
1.08
1xBet
1.07
+4.3%
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
89.0%
1.13
Betano
1.15
Superbet
1.14
Bet365
1.14
Betfair
1.13
Marathonbet
1.11
+6.5%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 HT goals
86.8%
1.18
Betano
1.20
Superbet
1.20
William Hil
1.20
10Bet
1.18
Bet365
1.18
+7.7%
✓ Hit
Under 25.5 fouls
84.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 2H goals
84.6%
1.16
Betano
1.19
10Bet
1.17
1xBet
1.15
Superbet
1.15
Marathonbet
1.14
+4.7%
✗ Miss
Under 4.5
83.9%
1.28
Betano
1.32
Pinnacle
1.31
Superbet
1.30
10Bet
1.30
Betfair
1.29
+10.8%
✓ Hit
Away over 0.5 goals
83.6%
1.09
Betano
1.11
Bet365
1.10
Betfair
1.10
Superbet
1.10
10Bet
1.09
-1.5%
✓ Hit
Under 4.5 cards
82.5%
1.30
Unibet
1.30
-
-
-
-
+12.1%
-
Away under 1.5 HT goals
82.4%
1.23
Superbet
1.25
Betano
1.25
1xBet
1.23
10Bet
1.22
Marathonbet
1.22
+7.4%
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 2H goals
80.9%
1.12
Betano
1.14
Superbet
1.14
William Hil
1.14
Bet365
1.12
Unibet
1.12
-2.2%
✓ Hit
Draw or Away
79.4%
1.25
Betano
1.28
1xBet
1.26
Superbet
1.26
William Hil
1.25
Bet365
1.25
+4.0%
✓ Hit
Away +1 handicap
79.4%
1.24
Betfair
1.25
10Bet
1.25
Marathonbet
1.24
Unibet
1.22
Bet365
1.22
+6.1%
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
78.9%
1.11
Betano
1.15
Superbet
1.14
Pinnacle
1.14
Unibet
1.12
Bet365
1.12
-5.2%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 2H goals
76.6%
1.35
Betano
1.40
Superbet
1.36
Bet365
1.36
10Bet
1.36
William Hil
1.35
+8.0%
✗ Miss
Away under 1.5 2H goals
76.3%
1.40
Betano
1.44
1xBet
1.41
10Bet
1.40
Superbet
1.39
Marathonbet
1.38
+10.3%
✗ Miss
Home or Away
74.8%
1.21
Unibet
1.24
1xBet
1.23
Superbet
1.23
William Hil
1.22
Betano
1.22
-3.0%
✗ Miss
Away under 2.5 goals
72.9%
1.43
Betano
1.45
Pinnacle
1.45
Marathonbet
1.44
1xBet
1.44
Superbet
1.44
+7.8%
✓ Hit
Under 23.5 fouls
72.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 goals
71.9%
1.54
Pinnacle
1.58
Betfair
1.57
Marathonbet
1.55
10Bet
1.55
Betano
1.55
+11.4%
✗ Miss
Over 8.5 corners
71.0%
1.34
Superbet
1.41
Betano
1.37
Unibet
1.36
1xBet
1.33
Betfair
1.30
+2.8%
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 HT goals
71.0%
1.22
Betano
1.26
Superbet
1.24
Unibet
1.22
William Hil
1.22
Bet365
1.22
-5.1%
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Willem II
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Devin Haen67%
Uriel van Aalst33%
Justin Hoogma0%
Alessandro Ciranni0%
Nathan Tjoe-A-On0%
Finn Stam0%
Mats Lemmens0%
Jaden Slory0%
Kasper Boogaard0%
Eser Gürbüz0%
Per van Loon0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Nathan Tjoe-A-On33%
Justin Hoogma0%
Alessandro Ciranni0%
Devin Haen0%
Finn Stam0%
Mats Lemmens0%
Jaden Slory0%
Kasper Boogaard0%
Eser Gürbüz0%
Per van Loon0%
Uriel van Aalst0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Nathan Tjoe-A-On67%
Justin Hoogma0%
Alessandro Ciranni0%
Devin Haen0%
Finn Stam0%
Mats Lemmens0%
Jaden Slory0%
Kasper Boogaard0%
Eser Gürbüz0%
Per van Loon0%
Uriel van Aalst0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Nathan Tjoe-A-On33%
Devin Haen33%
Jaden Slory33%
Justin Hoogma0%
Alessandro Ciranni0%
Finn Stam0%
Mats Lemmens0%
Kasper Boogaard0%
Eser Gürbüz0%
Per van Loon0%
Uriel van Aalst0%
Heerenveen
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Jacob Trenskow50%
Luca Oyen33%
Maxence Rivera33%
Oliver Braude33%
Dylan Vente0%
Sam Kersten0%
Ringo Meerveld0%
Vasilios Zagaritis0%
Dirk Wanner Proper0%
Marcus Linday0%
Maas Willemsen0%
Bernt Klaverboer0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Luca Oyen33%
Dirk Wanner Proper25%
Jacob Trenskow25%
Dylan Vente0%
Sam Kersten0%
Ringo Meerveld0%
Vasilios Zagaritis0%
Maxence Rivera0%
Marcus Linday0%
Maas Willemsen0%
Bernt Klaverboer0%
Oliver Braude0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Dylan Vente25%
Sam Kersten25%
Jacob Trenskow25%
Ringo Meerveld0%
Vasilios Zagaritis0%
Dirk Wanner Proper0%
Luca Oyen0%
Maxence Rivera0%
Marcus Linday0%
Maas Willemsen0%
Bernt Klaverboer0%
Oliver Braude0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Maxence Rivera33%
Oliver Braude33%
Dylan Vente25%
Jacob Trenskow25%
Sam Kersten0%
Ringo Meerveld0%
Vasilios Zagaritis0%
Dirk Wanner Proper0%
Luca Oyen0%
Marcus Linday0%
Maas Willemsen0%
Bernt Klaverboer0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PE (29)
€280m
FEY (30)
€229m
AJA (26)
€173m
AA (32)
€136m
TWE (32)
€87m
UTR (26)
€61m
NN (29)
€54m
HEE (21)
€50m
GRO (24)
€32m
SR (23)
€28m
GAE (25)
€22m
PZ (23)
€21m
FS (20)
€17m
EXC (24)
€16m
ADH (23)
€13m
WI (24)
€13m
CAM (24)
€12m
TEL (21)
€8m
Willem II's squad is €38m less valuable than Heerenveen's (€13m vs €50m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PE (11)
€106m
AJA (11)
€95m
FEY (11)
€93m
AA (13)
€61m
TWE (12)
€34m
UTR (10)
€33m
HEE (9)
€24m
NN (11)
€22m
SR (10)
€14m
GRO (7)
€12m
GAE (9)
€9m
PZ (8)
€8m
EXC (9)
€7m
ADH (11)
€7m
FS (6)
€6m
WI (8)
€4m
CAM (10)
€3m
TEL (7)
€3m
Willem II's attack is €19m less valuable than Heerenveen's (€4m vs €24m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PE (5)
€60m
FEY (4)
€43m
AA (4)
€21m
AJA (3)
€15m
UTR (6)
€14m
TWE (5)
€13m
HEE (2)
€6m
GRO (5)
€6m
NN (5)
€5m
GAE (4)
€4m
PZ (5)
€4m
WI (4)
€4m
FS (4)
€4m
EXC (4)
€3m
TEL (4)
€2m
SR (2)
€2m
ADH (3)
€1m
CAM (4)
€1m
Willem II's midfield is €2m less valuable than Heerenveen's (€4m vs €6m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PE (13)
€115m
FEY (15)
€93m
AJA (12)
€63m
AA (15)
€54m
TWE (15)
€39m
NN (13)
€26m
HEE (10)
€20m
UTR (10)
€15m
GRO (12)
€14m
SR (11)
€12m
PZ (10)
€10m
GAE (12)
€8m
CAM (10)
€8m
FS (10)
€7m
EXC (11)
€6m
WI (12)
€5m
ADH (9)
€5m
TEL (10)
€3m
Willem II's defence is €16m less valuable than Heerenveen's (€5m vs €20m).
Netherlands: Eredivisie 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Netherlands: Eredivisie stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
AZ Alkmaar
PSV Eindhoven
Feyenoord
Ajax
GO Ahead Eagles
Fortuna Sittard
NEC Nijmegen
Twente
Excelsior
Groningen
Sparta Rotterdam
PEC Zwolle
Telstar
ADO Den Haag
Utrecht
Cambuur