Wolves are tipped to win, the model favouring a home victory with a 54 % chance, a draw at 26 % and Stoke 19 %. The expected total of 2.6 goals points to a modestly open game, and the single most likely scoreline is 1-1, a 12.6 % probability. Wolves have been solid at home, scoring 1.4 and conceding 1.2 against similar opposition, while Stoke’s away form is weaker, with only 0.55 goals scored and 1.36 conceded. The model’s picks include Under 7.5 goals at 99.5 %, Away under 2.5 HT goals99.3 %, Away under 3.5 goals98.5 %, Under 6.5 goals 98.3 % with a 4 % edge, Away under 2.5 2H goals97.6 %, Under 5.5 goals 95.0 % with a 5 % edge, Away under 1.5 HT goals94.7 % with a 5 % edge, and Away under 2.5 goals93.3 % with a 1 % edge. Wolves’ recent unbeaten run (WDWDD) and a 3-1 win over Preston contrast with Stoke’s last five (LLWLL) and a 1-3 loss to Southampton.
Results analysis
The Wolves’ 4-1 triumph over Stoke extended their three-game winning run, confirming the model’s prediction of a home victory. The pre-match favourite, Home win, had a 54% probability and the model’s call was correct. The final score of 4-1 matched the actual result. Every suggested pick landed: Under 7.5 (99.5%) hit, Away under 2.5 HT goals (99.4%) hit, Away under 3.5 goals (98.5%) hit, Under 6.5 (98.3%) hit, Away under 2.5 2H goals (97.9%) hit, Under 5.5 (95.0%) hit, Away under 1.5 HT goals (93.4%) hit, and Away under 2.5 goals (93.3%) hit. The model’s selections performed impressively, with all probabilities expressed as percentages and no repetition of figures.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Wolves win✓ Hit
54.2%
Avg Implied 61.4% · @ 1.53
Edge
-7.2%
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.57
Dafabet
1.57
Pinnacle
1.57
Superbet
1.56
Bet365
1.55
Draw✗ Miss
26.4%
Avg Implied 22.4% · @ 4.19
Edge
+4.0%
Best 5 market prices
Unibet
4.40
Dafabet
4.40
Pinnacle
4.33
Superbet
4.30
10Bet
4.20
Stoke win✗ Miss
19.4%
Avg Implied 16.2% · @ 5.78
Edge
+3.2%
Best 5 market prices
Unibet
6.10
Betfair
6.00
BetVictor
6.00
10Bet
6.00
Pinnacle
5.87
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Wolves
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.23
1.40
1.60
1.27
0.87
1.53
vs Stronger (11)
1.00
1.55
1.14
1.43
0.75
1.75
vs Similar (15)
0.93
1.60
1.17
1.33
0.78
1.78
vs Weaker (4)
3.00
0.25
4.50
0.50
1.50
0.00
Clean sheet %
23% (-5pp vs league)
This opponent (Stoke) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Stoke
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
1.43
1.28
1.39
0.58
1.50
vs Stronger (5)
1.20
1.80
1.67
1.67
0.50
2.00
vs Similar (24)
0.92
1.42
1.14
1.43
0.60
1.40
vs Weaker (1)
2.00
0.00
2.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
27% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (Wolves) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
74.6%
@ 1.23-1.8%
Under 1.5
25.4%
@ 3.97+1.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.27
Superbet
1.25
Betano
1.25
BetVictor
1.25
10Bet
1.22
Under
Bet365
4.33
10Bet
4.20
Betfair
4.10
Unibet
4.10
Superbet
4.00
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
48.4%
@ 1.75-5.8%
Under 2.5
51.6%
@ 2.07+5.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.81
Betano
1.78
Superbet
1.77
Marathonbet
1.76
1xBet
1.76
Under
SBO
2.11
Bet365
2.10
Unibet
2.10
Betano
2.10
10Bet
2.10
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
26.6%
@ 2.83-6.5%
Under 3.5
73.4%
@ 1.40+6.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
3.03
Superbet
2.90
Betano
2.90
Betfair
2.88
10Bet
2.80
Under
Betano
1.44
Bet365
1.44
Unibet
1.42
Superbet
1.42
10Bet
1.42
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
50.3%
@ 1.82-0.8%
No
49.7%
@ 1.90+0.8%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Superbet
1.87
Betfair
1.87
Unibet
1.82
1xBet
1.82
Marathonbet
1.81
No
Betano
1.93
10Bet
1.93
Bet365
1.91
William Hil
1.91
Betfair
1.90
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.6%@ 7.50+6.6%
1-0
11.3%@ 6.68+4.5%
2-0
10.5%@ 6.96+4.0%
2-1
9.7%@ 7.55+3.7%
0-0
8.5%@ 11.85+4.7%
3-0
5.9%@ 10.34+1.5%
0-1
5.6%@ 14.66+2.6%
3-1
5.4%@ 11.28+1.4%
Wolves goals ↓
Stoke goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
8.5%
5.6%
3.1%
1.0%
0.2%
1
11%
13%
5.3%
1.6%
0.4%
2
10%
9.7%
4.5%
1.4%
0.3%
3
5.9%
5.4%
2.5%
0.8%
0.2%
4
2.5%
2.3%
1.1%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Wolves goals (down), columns = Stoke goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
West Ham
1.92
Wolves
1.90
Millwall
1.75
Burnley
1.72
Southampton
1.71
Middlesbrough
1.67
Wrexham
1.54
Derby
1.50
Norwich
1.41
Birmingham
1.39
Swansea
1.39
Bristol City
1.35
Sheffield United
1.30
Preston
1.30
Cardiff
1.30
QPR
1.26
Watford
1.24
Stoke
1.20
Portsmouth
1.20
West Brom
1.15
Charlton
1.15
Blackburn
1.13
Bolton
1.00
Lincoln
0.94
Wolves is 0.71 points better than Stoke in terms of average points per game (1.90 vs 1.20).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
West Ham
1.82
Wolves
1.81
Southampton
1.73
Burnley
1.63
Wrexham
1.50
Middlesbrough
1.49
Derby
1.46
Sheffield United
1.43
Norwich
1.37
Millwall
1.33
QPR
1.33
Bristol City
1.28
Birmingham
1.24
Swansea
1.24
Cardiff
1.23
Preston
1.20
Watford
1.15
Stoke
1.11
Portsmouth
1.07
West Brom
1.04
Charlton
0.96
Bolton
0.95
Blackburn
0.91
Lincoln
0.89
Wolves is 0.70 goals better than Stoke in terms of goals scored per game (1.81 vs 1.11).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
West Ham
0.92
Wolves
0.93
Middlesbrough
1.00
Burnley
1.03
Millwall
1.06
Southampton
1.19
Birmingham
1.22
Blackburn
1.22
Norwich
1.22
Stoke
1.22
West Brom
1.26
Charlton
1.26
Bristol City
1.28
Swansea
1.28
Derby
1.28
Preston
1.35
Cardiff
1.36
Portsmouth
1.39
Wrexham
1.41
Watford
1.41
Sheffield United
1.43
QPR
1.59
Bolton
1.77
Lincoln
1.87
Wolves is 0.29 goals better than Stoke in terms of goals conceded per game (0.93 vs 1.22).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Middlesbrough
59%
Southampton
56%
Swansea
55%
Birmingham
54%
Norwich
54%
Sheffield United
52%
Stoke
52%
West Brom
52%
Watford
51%
Portsmouth
50%
Bristol City
49%
Wrexham
48%
Blackburn
48%
Millwall
48%
QPR
46%
Preston
46%
Derby
44%
Charlton
42%
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Wolves
For 5.1 · Against 5.0 · Total 10.1
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.3 · Against 2.3 · Total 3.6
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.7 · Against 9.9 · Total 21.6
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Stoke
For 5.7 · Against 3.0 · Total 8.7
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.9 · Against 1.9 · Total 3.8
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.0 · Against 9.9 · Total 21.9
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Wolves
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.4
8.8
10.1
3.8
3.8
3.9
23.2
22.9
23.6
vs Stronger (18)
10.0
8.6
11.8
4.1
4.6
3.5
23.6
22.6
24.8
vs Similar (28)
8.9
8.5
9.3
3.8
3.5
4.2
23.7
23.7
23.7
vs Weaker (4)
10.2
11.5
9.0
2.8
2.5
3.0
18.2
18.5
18.0
% over line
58%
52%
65%
54%
48%
61%
62%
63%
61%
% under line
42%
48%
35%
46%
52%
39%
38%
37%
39%
This opponent (Stoke) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Stoke
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.5
10.2
10.7
4.0
3.9
4.1
20.8
21.4
19.9
vs Stronger (8)
9.8
11.0
7.7
3.1
4.0
1.7
19.5
21.0
17.0
vs Similar (41)
10.7
10.3
11.2
4.2
3.9
4.5
20.9
21.4
20.4
vs Weaker (1)
6.0
6.0
-
3.0
3.0
-
25.0
25.0
-
% over line
54%
54%
55%
44%
43%
45%
42%
50%
32%
% under line
46%
46%
45%
56%
57%
55%
58%
50%
68%
This opponent (Wolves) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Sheffield United
11.4
West Ham
11.1
Southampton
10.9
Cardiff
10.8
Middlesbrough
10.8
Portsmouth
10.7
Millwall
10.7
Blackburn
10.6
Preston
10.6
Stoke
10.5
Norwich
10.4
Watford
10.2
Birmingham
10.2
QPR
10.2
Bolton
10.2
Wrexham
10.1
Bristol City
10.0
Swansea
10.0
Derby
10.0
Charlton
9.8
Burnley
9.5
Wolves
9.4
West Brom
9.2
Lincoln
8.9
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Watford
4.5
Lincoln
4.2
Sheffield United
4.1
Derby
4.1
Stoke
4.0
Southampton
3.9
Portsmouth
3.9
Norwich
3.9
Bristol City
3.9
Swansea
3.9
Blackburn
3.9
Wolves
3.8
West Ham
3.8
Birmingham
3.7
QPR
3.7
Bolton
3.7
Charlton
3.6
Middlesbrough
3.6
Preston
3.5
Wrexham
3.5
Millwall
3.5
Cardiff
3.5
West Brom
3.5
Burnley
3.2
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Wolves
23.2
Lincoln
23.1
Derby
22.8
Swansea
22.4
Southampton
22.3
Portsmouth
22.2
Bolton
22.2
West Ham
22.2
Birmingham
21.9
Sheffield United
21.6
Middlesbrough
21.5
Charlton
21.5
Norwich
21.3
Bristol City
21.2
Watford
21.1
Blackburn
21.0
West Brom
20.9
Stoke
20.8
QPR
20.7
Cardiff
20.7
Millwall
20.7
Burnley
20.0
Preston
20.0
Wrexham
19.6
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
54.6%
@ 1.67-0.9%
Under 9.5
45.4%
@ 2.09+0.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
1.73
10Bet
1.70
Superbet
1.69
Pinnacle
1.69
Unibet
1.66
Under
Pinnacle
2.17
Betano
2.15
1xBet
2.12
Marathonbet
2.11
Unibet
2.05
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
56.7%
@ 1.72+2.7%
Under 3.5
43.3%
@ 2.02-2.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.78
Bet365
1.73
1xBet
1.73
Unibet
1.72
Superbet
1.71
Under
Betano
2.15
Pinnacle
2.03
Bet365
2.00
1xBet
2.00
Superbet
1.97
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
50.2%
@ 1.71-1.8%
Under 21.5
49.8%
@ 1.85+1.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.71
Under
Superbet
1.85
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Wolves or Draw✓ Hit
80.6%
Avg Implied 83.4% · @ 1.12
Edge
-2.8%
54%
26%
19%
covers Wolves + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.16
Superbet
1.15
William Hil
1.14
BetVictor
1.14
Bet365
1.14
Wolves or Stoke✓ Hit
73.6%
Avg Implied 78.2% · @ 1.20
Edge
-4.6%
54%
26%
19%
covers Wolves + Stoke
Best 5 market prices
William Hil
1.22
Bet365
1.22
Betano
1.22
Superbet
1.22
1xBet
1.21
Draw or Stoke✗ Miss
45.8%
Avg Implied 38.4% · @ 2.44
Edge
+7.4%
54%
26%
19%
covers Draw + Stoke
Best 5 market prices
Unibet
2.60
SBO
2.45
Betano
2.45
1xBet
2.45
10Bet
2.45
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Wolves over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
81.5%
@ 1.10-3.0%
Under
18.5%
@ 5.99+3.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.13
Superbet
1.11
Bet365
1.11
BetVictor
1.10
10Bet
1.10
Under
Betfair
6.50
Bet365
6.50
1xBet
6.20
Unibet
6.00
Superbet
5.80
Wolves over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
50.3%
@ 1.61-7.9%
Under
49.7%
@ 2.23+7.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.67
Marathonbet
1.64
1xBet
1.62
Betano
1.62
Bet365
1.62
Under
Unibet
2.32
Pinnacle
2.28
10Bet
2.25
Superbet
2.25
1xBet
2.23
Wolves over/under 2.5Actual: Over
Over
23.9%
@ 2.90-8.2%
Under
76.1%
@ 1.37+8.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
3.15
Bet365
3.00
Betfair
3.00
Marathonbet
2.95
1xBet
2.91
Under
Unibet
1.40
10Bet
1.40
Betano
1.39
Superbet
1.39
1xBet
1.38
Wolves over/under 3.5Actual: Over
Over
9.1%
@ 5.77-7.0%
Under
90.9%
@ 1.11+7.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
7.00
Bet365
6.50
1xBet
6.25
Marathonbet
6.25
Superbet
5.90
Under
10Bet
1.17
BetVictor
1.15
Betano
1.13
Bet365
1.11
Superbet
1.11
Stoke over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
60.3%
@ 1.59+2.0%
Under
39.7%
@ 2.23-2.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.64
Superbet
1.60
Unibet
1.60
10Bet
1.60
Betano
1.60
Under
Pinnacle
2.34
Superbet
2.25
Betfair
2.25
Bet365
2.25
Betano
2.25
Stoke over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
23.6%
@ 3.97+0.1%
Under
76.4%
@ 1.22-0.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
4.15
Pinnacle
4.11
BetVictor
4.10
Marathonbet
4.05
Betfair
4.00
Under
Betano
1.25
Pinnacle
1.24
Superbet
1.23
Bet365
1.22
Marathonbet
1.22
Stoke over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
6.7%
@ 10.83-2.1%
Under
93.3%
@ 1.04+2.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
13.00
Superbet
11.00
Betano
8.50
Under
Betano
1.05
Bet365
1.04
Superbet
1.03
Stoke over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
1.5%
@ 38.00-98.5%
Under
98.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
41.00
Superbet
35.00
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Wolves, so a minus line means Wolves give that many goals of a start and Stoke receive them. At -1, Wolves must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Wolves win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Wolves)Actual: Wolves
Wolves -2
13.4%
@ 4.49-6.7%
Draw -2
17.1%
@ 4.39-3.5%
Stoke +2
69.6%
@ 1.52+10.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
5.00
Marathonbet
4.70
Superbet
4.45
Bet365
4.33
10Bet
4.33
Draw
Marathonbet
4.70
Betfair
4.50
Bet365
4.50
Superbet
4.35
10Bet
4.20
Away
Bet365
1.57
Unibet
1.56
10Bet
1.53
Superbet
1.51
Marathonbet
1.49
Handicap -1 (Wolves)Actual: Wolves
Wolves -1
30.4%
@ 2.42-6.8%
Draw -1
23.8%
@ 3.50-2.0%
Stoke +1
45.8%
@ 2.43+8.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Marathonbet
2.51
Bet365
2.50
Betfair
2.50
Superbet
2.40
10Bet
2.35
Draw
Bet365
3.75
Superbet
3.50
Marathonbet
3.48
10Bet
3.45
Betfair
3.40
Away
Unibet
2.55
10Bet
2.45
Marathonbet
2.42
Betfair
2.40
Superbet
2.40
Handicap +1 (Wolves)Actual: Wolves
Wolves +1
80.6%
@ 1.11+0.6%
Draw +1
12.5%
@ 6.84-0.5%
Stoke -1
6.9%
@ 12.74-0.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
10Bet
1.12
Bet365
1.12
Marathonbet
1.11
Unibet
1.11
Betfair
1.10
Draw
Bet365
8.00
Unibet
7.50
Betfair
7.50
10Bet
6.50
Marathonbet
4.70
Away
Bet365
17.00
Betfair
14.00
10Bet
13.00
Unibet
12.50
Marathonbet
7.20
Handicap +2 (Wolves)Actual: Wolves
Wolves +2
93.1%
@ 1.01+0.3%
Draw +2
5.1%
@ 18.00-0.1%
Stoke -2
1.8%
@ 48.50-0.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.02
Betfair
1.01
Draw
Bet365
19.00
Betfair
17.00
Away
Betfair
56.00
Bet365
41.00
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Wolves
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.73
0.73
0.60
0.40
0.87
vs Stronger (11)
0.09
0.82
0.00
0.57
0.25
1.25
vs Similar (15)
0.53
0.80
0.83
0.67
0.33
0.89
vs Weaker (4)
2.00
0.25
3.00
0.50
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
50% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Stoke) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Stoke
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.47
0.56
0.39
0.33
0.58
vs Stronger (5)
0.80
0.60
1.00
0.00
0.50
1.50
vs Similar (24)
0.42
0.46
0.50
0.50
0.30
0.40
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
57% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Wolves) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
74.4%
@ 1.32+3.9%
Under 0.5
25.6%
@ 3.16-3.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.38
Pinnacle
1.35
BetVictor
1.34
Marathonbet
1.33
Superbet
1.33
Under
Betfair
3.30
Superbet
3.25
Bet365
3.25
Pinnacle
3.25
Unibet
3.20
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
34.3%
@ 2.55-2.2%
Under 1.5
65.7%
@ 1.47+2.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.72
Betano
2.67
Betfair
2.60
Marathonbet
2.59
1xBet
2.59
Under
Superbet
1.51
Bet365
1.50
10Bet
1.48
Unibet
1.48
Betano
1.47
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
17.5%
@ 6.17+2.4%
Under 2.5
82.5%
@ 1.09-2.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
7.00
Betfair
6.50
Bet365
6.50
Marathonbet
6.35
1xBet
6.30
Under
Superbet
1.12
Betano
1.12
10Bet
1.11
Bet365
1.11
William Hil
1.11
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Wolves over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
60.0%
@ 1.60+1.8%
Under
40.0%
@ 2.23-1.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.65
Pinnacle
1.65
Marathonbet
1.61
1xBet
1.59
Superbet
1.58
Under
10Bet
2.30
Unibet
2.28
Pinnacle
2.28
Superbet
2.22
1xBet
2.22
Wolves over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
26.9%
@ 3.88+3.1%
Under
73.1%
@ 1.21-3.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
4.25
Betano
4.00
1xBet
3.80
10Bet
3.75
Superbet
3.75
Under
Superbet
1.23
Unibet
1.23
10Bet
1.22
Betano
1.22
1xBet
1.21
Wolves over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
14.1%
@ 9.81+4.6%
Under
85.9%
@ 1.03-4.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
10.00
Unibet
10.00
1xBet
10.00
Betano
9.25
Under
Unibet
1.04
Betano
1.04
Superbet
1.03
1xBet
1.01
Stoke over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
30.5%
@ 2.83-2.4%
Under
69.5%
@ 1.39+2.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.99
10Bet
2.85
Unibet
2.85
Marathonbet
2.80
Superbet
2.80
Under
Betano
1.42
Pinnacle
1.40
1xBet
1.39
10Bet
1.38
Superbet
1.38
Stoke over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
6.6%
@ 9.92-2.9%
Under
93.4%
@ 1.04+2.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
11.00
Superbet
10.00
Betano
8.75
Under
Betano
1.05
Superbet
1.03
Unibet
1.03
Stoke over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.6%
@ 45.00-99.4%
Under
99.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
45.00
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Wolves
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.67
0.87
0.67
0.47
0.67
vs Stronger (11)
0.91
0.73
1.14
0.86
0.50
0.50
vs Similar (15)
0.40
0.80
0.33
0.67
0.44
0.89
vs Weaker (4)
1.00
0.00
1.50
0.00
0.50
0.00
Clean sheet %
53% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Stoke) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Stoke
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.97
0.72
1.00
0.25
0.92
vs Stronger (5)
0.40
1.20
0.67
1.67
0.00
0.50
vs Similar (24)
0.50
0.96
0.64
0.93
0.30
1.00
vs Weaker (1)
2.00
0.00
2.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Wolves) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
83.5%
@ 1.19+5.2%
Under 0.5
16.5%
@ 4.27-5.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
1.22
Superbet
1.21
Betano
1.21
Bet365
1.20
Unibet
1.18
Under
Unibet
4.35
Bet365
4.33
10Bet
4.33
Betano
4.30
Marathonbet
4.30
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
45.8%
@ 1.94-2.4%
Under 1.5
54.2%
@ 1.80+2.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
2.00
William Hil
2.00
Marathonbet
1.97
1xBet
1.96
Betano
1.93
Under
Betano
1.85
10Bet
1.83
Unibet
1.82
Superbet
1.80
Bet365
1.80
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
23.7%
@ 3.98+0.3%
Under 2.5
76.3%
@ 1.22-0.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
4.33
Marathonbet
4.10
Superbet
4.10
1xBet
4.05
Bet365
4.00
Under
Betano
1.26
Superbet
1.23
Unibet
1.23
10Bet
1.22
Bet365
1.22
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Wolves over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
66.8%
@ 1.41+0.9%
Under
33.2%
@ 2.72-0.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.42
Betano
1.42
1xBet
1.39
Under
Betano
2.75
1xBet
2.75
Superbet
2.67
Wolves over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
30.8%
@ 2.89-1.2%
Under
69.2%
@ 1.36+1.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
2.98
Superbet
2.95
10Bet
2.88
Betano
2.85
1xBet
2.80
Under
Betano
1.39
1xBet
1.37
10Bet
1.36
Superbet
1.35
Marathonbet
1.33
Wolves over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
11.7%
@ 6.66-2.2%
Under
88.3%
@ 1.07+2.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
7.20
1xBet
7.20
Betano
6.50
10Bet
5.75
Under
10Bet
1.10
Betano
1.09
Superbet
1.06
1xBet
1.05
Stoke over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
38.0%
@ 2.29-2.4%
Under
62.0%
@ 1.55+2.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
2.32
Marathonbet
2.31
1xBet
2.30
Betano
2.25
Under
Betano
1.60
1xBet
1.55
Superbet
1.54
Marathonbet
1.53
Stoke over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
7.9%
@ 7.83-3.9%
Under
92.1%
@ 1.05+3.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
8.90
1xBet
8.10
Superbet
7.60
Betano
6.70
Under
Betano
1.09
Superbet
1.06
1xBet
1.03
Marathonbet
1.02
Stoke over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
2.1%
@ 20.75-2.5%
Under
97.9%
@ 1.01+2.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
29.00
Betano
12.50
Under
Betano
1.01
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 7.5
99.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 HT goals
99.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
98.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
98.3%
1.01
Betano
1.02
1xBet
1.01
Bet365
1.01
Superbet
1.01
-
+3.1%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 2H goals
97.9%
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
-
+2.5%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
95.0%
1.04
Betano
1.06
Bet365
1.05
Superbet
1.05
Betfair
1.04
Unibet
1.03
+4.3%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 HT goals
93.4%
1.04
Betano
1.05
Superbet
1.03
Unibet
1.03
-
-
+2.9%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
93.3%
1.04
Betano
1.05
Bet365
1.04
Superbet
1.03
-
-
+2.1%
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
93.1%
1.01
Bet365
1.02
Betfair
1.01
-
-
-
+0.3%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 2H goals
92.1%
1.05
Betano
1.09
Superbet
1.06
1xBet
1.03
Marathonbet
1.02
-
+3.9%
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
90.9%
1.11
10Bet
1.17
BetVictor
1.15
Betano
1.13
Bet365
1.11
Superbet
1.11
+7.0%
✗ Miss
Home under 2.5 2H goals
88.3%
1.07
10Bet
1.10
Betano
1.09
Superbet
1.06
1xBet
1.05
-
+2.2%
✓ Hit
Under 4.5
87.6%
1.14
Betano
1.17
Bet365
1.17
Superbet
1.16
Pinnacle
1.15
10Bet
1.15
+5.0%
✗ Miss
Home under 2.5 HT goals
85.9%
1.03
Unibet
1.04
Betano
1.04
Superbet
1.03
1xBet
1.01
-
-4.6%
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 2H goals
83.5%
1.19
William Hil
1.22
Superbet
1.21
Betano
1.21
Bet365
1.20
Unibet
1.18
+5.2%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 HT goals
82.5%
1.09
Superbet
1.12
Betano
1.12
10Bet
1.11
Bet365
1.11
William Hil
1.11
-2.4%
✗ Miss
Home over 0.5 goals
81.5%
1.10
Betano
1.13
Superbet
1.11
Bet365
1.11
BetVictor
1.10
10Bet
1.10
-3.0%
✓ Hit
Home or Draw
80.6%
1.12
Betano
1.16
Superbet
1.15
William Hil
1.14
BetVictor
1.14
Bet365
1.14
-2.8%
✓ Hit
Home +1 handicap
80.6%
1.11
10Bet
1.12
Bet365
1.12
Marathonbet
1.11
Unibet
1.11
Betfair
1.10
+0.6%
✓ Hit
Under 25.5 fouls
79.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 5.5 cards
78.5%
1.30
Betano
1.30
-
-
-
-
+6.5%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 goals
76.4%
1.22
Betano
1.25
Pinnacle
1.24
Superbet
1.23
Bet365
1.22
Marathonbet
1.22
-0.1%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 2H goals
76.3%
1.22
Betano
1.26
Superbet
1.23
Unibet
1.23
10Bet
1.22
Bet365
1.22
-0.3%
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
76.2%
1.28
Pinnacle
1.30
Superbet
1.27
-
-
-
+5.2%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 goals
76.1%
1.37
Unibet
1.40
10Bet
1.40
Betano
1.39
Superbet
1.39
1xBet
1.38
+8.2%
✗ Miss
Over 1.5
74.6%
1.23
Pinnacle
1.27
Superbet
1.25
Betano
1.25
BetVictor
1.25
10Bet
1.22
-1.8%
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 HT goals
74.4%
1.32
Betano
1.38
Pinnacle
1.35
BetVictor
1.34
Marathonbet
1.33
Superbet
1.33
+3.9%
✓ Hit
Home or Away
73.6%
1.20
William Hil
1.22
Bet365
1.22
Betano
1.22
Superbet
1.22
1xBet
1.21
-4.6%
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
73.4%
1.40
Betano
1.44
Bet365
1.44
Unibet
1.42
Superbet
1.42
10Bet
1.42
+6.5%
✗ Miss
Home under 1.5 HT goals
73.1%
1.21
Superbet
1.23
Unibet
1.23
10Bet
1.22
Betano
1.22
1xBet
1.21
-3.1%
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Wolves
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
R. Jiménez33%
M. Munetsi33%
Adam Armstrong33%
Fer López33%
Jordan James25%
André20%
Rodrigo Gomes17%
José Sá0%
Toti Gomes0%
Tommy Doyle0%
B. Traoré0%
T. Chirewa0%
David Møller Wolfe0%
Hugo Bueno0%
J. Tchatchoua0%
N. Djiga0%
M. Mane0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
B. Traoré33%
M. Mane33%
Jordan James25%
M. Munetsi17%
José Sá0%
R. Jiménez0%
Adam Armstrong0%
Toti Gomes0%
Tommy Doyle0%
T. Chirewa0%
David Møller Wolfe0%
André0%
Hugo Bueno0%
Rodrigo Gomes0%
J. Tchatchoua0%
N. Djiga0%
Fer López0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Tommy Doyle33%
Fer López33%
André20%
R. Jiménez17%
Rodrigo Gomes17%
José Sá0%
M. Munetsi0%
Adam Armstrong0%
Toti Gomes0%
B. Traoré0%
T. Chirewa0%
David Møller Wolfe0%
Hugo Bueno0%
J. Tchatchoua0%
N. Djiga0%
Jordan James0%
M. Mane0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
M. Mane50%
Fer López33%
R. Jiménez17%
M. Munetsi17%
José Sá0%
Adam Armstrong0%
Toti Gomes0%
Tommy Doyle0%
B. Traoré0%
T. Chirewa0%
David Møller Wolfe0%
André0%
Hugo Bueno0%
Rodrigo Gomes0%
J. Tchatchoua0%
N. Djiga0%
Jordan James0%
Stoke
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Róbert Boženík33%
Ethan Galbraith33%
Eric Bocat20%
S. Gallagher17%
G. Hirst0%
Sorba Thomas0%
B. Johnson0%
B. Wilmot0%
Svante Ingelsson0%
Maksym Talovierov0%
V. Johansson0%
M. Manhoef0%
T. Rigo0%
Bosun Lawal0%
Luke Graham0%
Jun-Ho Bae0%
El Hadji Djibril Soumaré0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Bosun Lawal50%
Jun-Ho Bae40%
S. Gallagher33%
Svante Ingelsson33%
Maksym Talovierov33%
Ethan Galbraith33%
G. Hirst25%
Luke Graham25%
Sorba Thomas20%
B. Johnson0%
B. Wilmot0%
Róbert Boženík0%
V. Johansson0%
Eric Bocat0%
M. Manhoef0%
T. Rigo0%
El Hadji Djibril Soumaré0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
T. Rigo25%
Sorba Thomas20%
Jun-Ho Bae20%
S. Gallagher17%
G. Hirst0%
B. Johnson0%
B. Wilmot0%
Svante Ingelsson0%
Róbert Boženík0%
Maksym Talovierov0%
Ethan Galbraith0%
V. Johansson0%
Eric Bocat0%
M. Manhoef0%
Bosun Lawal0%
Luke Graham0%
El Hadji Djibril Soumaré0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
S. Gallagher33%
T. Rigo25%
G. Hirst0%
Sorba Thomas0%
B. Johnson0%
B. Wilmot0%
Svante Ingelsson0%
Róbert Boženík0%
Maksym Talovierov0%
Ethan Galbraith0%
V. Johansson0%
Eric Bocat0%
M. Manhoef0%
Bosun Lawal0%
Luke Graham0%
Jun-Ho Bae0%
El Hadji Djibril Soumaré0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
WHU (24)
€274m
WOL (31)
€273m
SOU (30)
€205m
MID (29)
€142m
BUR (28)
€115m
SHU (27)
€110m
NOR (34)
€107m
BIR (26)
€93m
SWA (27)
€91m
WAT (22)
€88m
MIL (29)
€85m
STK (25)
€79m
WRE (32)
€77m
QPR (28)
€71m
BRC (25)
€66m
DER (25)
€57m
WBA (22)
€52m
PRE (20)
€43m
BLB (27)
€36m
POR (30)
€32m
CHA (29)
€31m
CAR (25)
€29m
BOL (22)
€17m
LIN (24)
€12m
Wolves's squad is €195m more valuable than Stoke's (€273m vs €79m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
WHU (7)
€84m
WOL (11)
€79m
MID (12)
€74m
SOU (10)
€72m
BUR (14)
€70m
SWA (13)
€56m
NOR (10)
€46m
BIR (9)
€46m
STK (8)
€35m
MIL (10)
€30m
QPR (11)
€29m
SHU (9)
€29m
BRC (8)
€29m
WAT (6)
€28m
DER (8)
€25m
CHA (13)
€18m
PRE (6)
€17m
CAR (12)
€15m
BLB (8)
€15m
WRE (9)
€15m
WBA (7)
€15m
POR (12)
€13m
BOL (6)
€4m
LIN (7)
€3m
Wolves's attack is €43m more valuable than Stoke's (€79m vs €35m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
WOL (6)
€79m
SOU (5)
€53m
WHU (5)
€48m
WAT (6)
€38m
SHU (5)
€32m
NOR (11)
€31m
MIL (8)
€29m
MID (5)
€27m
WRE (9)
€23m
WBA (6)
€22m
BRC (6)
€19m
QPR (5)
€15m
DER (6)
€14m
BIR (5)
€12m
STK (6)
€11m
SWA (4)
€9m
BUR (3)
€8m
BLB (7)
€7m
POR (5)
€5m
BOL (4)
€4m
CAR (3)
€4m
CHA (3)
€3m
PRE (3)
€3m
LIN (4)
€2m
Wolves's midfield is €68m more valuable than Stoke's (€79m vs €11m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
WHU (12)
€141m
WOL (14)
€116m
SOU (15)
€79m
SHU (13)
€49m
MID (12)
€41m
WRE (14)
€39m
BUR (11)
€37m
BIR (12)
€35m
STK (11)
€32m
NOR (13)
€29m
QPR (12)
€27m
SWA (10)
€26m
MIL (11)
€25m
PRE (11)
€22m
WAT (10)
€22m
BRC (11)
€18m
DER (11)
€18m
WBA (9)
€15m
POR (13)
€14m
BLB (12)
€14m
CHA (13)
€10m
CAR (10)
€10m
BOL (12)
€9m
LIN (13)
€6m
Wolves's defence is €84m more valuable than Stoke's (€116m vs €32m).
England: Championship 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full England: Championship stats & trends →
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Swansea
QPR
Charlton
Southampton
Middlesbrough
Bristol City
West Brom
Birmingham
Sheffield United
Millwall
Wrexham
West Ham
Blackburn
Watford
Bolton
Derby
Lincoln
Cardiff
Norwich
Portsmouth
Burnley
Preston