Yeovil hosts Carlisle in the England National League, with the match expected to be a closely contested draw. Carlisle's recent unbeaten run in their last 5 matches, including a 1-1 draw against Yeovil, suggests they'll be tough to beat. The model predicts a Carlisle win, favouring them with a 47% chance of victory. Yeovil, on the other hand, has a 26% chance of a home win and a 28% chance of a draw. The expected total goals are 2.7, with the most likely total goals being 2. The model's most likely score is a 1-1 draw with a 13.2% probability.
Yeovil has been struggling at home, scoring an average of 1.31 goals and conceding 1.54 per match against similar opponents. Carlisle, meanwhile, has been scoring 1.82 goals and conceding 1.36 per match while away against similar opponents.
The model suggests Over 1.5 goals with a 75.8% probability and Under 3.5 goals with a 72.1% probability. Carlisle has a 46% chance of an away win, Yeovil has a 26% chance of a home win, and there's a 28% chance of a draw.
Results analysis
The draw between Yeovil and Carlisle extends Yeovil's run of consecutive draws, and comes after Carlisle's unbeaten streak in their last 5 matches. The final score of 1-1 confirms the most likely scoreline predicted by the model, which had a 13.2% probability of occurring. The model's selection, Carlisle to win away, was wrong, with a pre-match probability of 47%. The model's call was incorrect, as the actual result was a draw. The model's suggested picks were correct, with Over 1.5 goals hitting at 75.8% probability and Under 3.5 goals hitting at 72.1% probability.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Yeovil win✗ Miss
25.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✓ Hit
27.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Carlisle win✗ Miss
46.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Yeovil
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.03
1.43
1.29
1.43
0.81
1.44
vs Stronger (1)
2.00
3.00
-
-
2.00
3.00
vs Similar (29)
1.00
1.38
1.29
1.43
0.73
1.33
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
23% (-3pp vs league)
This opponent (Carlisle) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Carlisle
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
2.0
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.83
1.23
2.07
1.07
1.60
1.40
vs Stronger (3)
0.67
2.33
1.00
1.00
0.50
3.00
vs Similar (27)
1.96
1.11
2.14
1.07
1.77
1.15
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
33% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (Yeovil) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
75.8%
Under 1.5
24.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
49.9%
Under 2.5
50.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
27.9%
Under 3.5
72.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
54.1%
No
45.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1 ✓
13.2%
0-1
9.6%
1-2
9.4%
0-2
8.4%
0-0
8.1%
2-1
6.7%
1-0
6.5%
2-2
5.2%
Yeovil goals ↓
Carlisle goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
8.1%
9.6%
8.4%
4.4%
1.7%
1
6.5%
13%
9.4%
4.9%
1.9%
2
4.3%
6.7%
5.2%
2.7%
1.1%
3
1.6%
2.5%
1.9%
1.0%
0.4%
4
0.4%
0.7%
0.5%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Yeovil goals (down), columns = Carlisle goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Barrow
2.18
Harrogate
2.08
Carlisle
2.04
Boreham Wood
1.90
Scunthorpe
1.77
Forest Green
1.74
Southend
1.72
Halifax
1.52
Hartlepool
1.48
Kidderminster
1.38
Fylde
1.38
Woking
1.37
Tamworth
1.35
Boston Utd
1.28
Altrincham
1.24
Wealdstone
1.22
Solihull
1.22
Yeovil
1.11
Eastleigh
1.09
Gateshead
1.09
Sutton
1.02
Aldershot
1.00
Yeovil is 0.93 points worse than Carlisle in terms of average points per game (1.11 vs 2.04).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Barrow
2.30
Harrogate
2.20
Boreham Wood
2.00
Carlisle
1.87
Southend
1.77
Forest Green
1.74
Scunthorpe
1.69
Solihull
1.54
Halifax
1.50
Woking
1.50
Aldershot
1.50
Wealdstone
1.48
Kidderminster
1.45
Fylde
1.45
Boston Utd
1.37
Tamworth
1.37
Sutton
1.28
Eastleigh
1.24
Altrincham
1.20
Gateshead
1.17
Hartlepool
1.17
Yeovil
1.04
Yeovil is 0.83 goals worse than Carlisle in terms of goals scored per game (1.04 vs 1.87).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Barrow
0.92
Harrogate
0.96
Southend
1.02
Forest Green
1.11
Carlisle
1.11
Woking
1.17
Boreham Wood
1.24
Hartlepool
1.28
Scunthorpe
1.35
Altrincham
1.41
Halifax
1.43
Boston Utd
1.46
Kidderminster
1.46
Fylde
1.46
Yeovil
1.48
Tamworth
1.54
Solihull
1.57
Wealdstone
1.65
Sutton
1.72
Eastleigh
1.74
Aldershot
1.89
Gateshead
1.96
Yeovil is 0.37 goals worse than Carlisle in terms of goals conceded per game (1.48 vs 1.11).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Boreham Wood
58%
Wealdstone
57%
Sutton
54%
Aldershot
54%
Forest Green
53%
Southend
52%
Altrincham
52%
Gateshead
50%
Woking
50%
Scunthorpe
49%
Carlisle
49%
Solihull
48%
Halifax
48%
Hartlepool
47%
Yeovil
47%
Eastleigh
41%
Tamworth
38%
Yeovil is 1.8 percentage points worse than Carlisle in terms of average possession (47% vs 49%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Yeovil
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.40
0.80
0.50
0.71
0.31
0.88
vs Stronger (1)
1.00
1.00
-
-
1.00
1.00
vs Similar (29)
0.38
0.79
0.50
0.71
0.27
0.87
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Carlisle) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Carlisle
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.93
0.63
1.33
0.53
0.53
0.73
vs Stronger (3)
0.33
2.00
1.00
1.00
0.00
2.50
vs Similar (27)
1.00
0.48
1.36
0.50
0.62
0.46
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
57% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Yeovil) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Yeovil over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Yeovil over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Yeovil over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Carlisle over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Carlisle over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Carlisle over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Yeovil
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.63
0.79
0.71
0.50
0.56
vs Stronger (1)
1.00
2.00
-
-
1.00
2.00
vs Similar (29)
0.62
0.59
0.79
0.71
0.47
0.47
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Carlisle) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Carlisle
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
0.60
0.73
0.53
1.07
0.67
vs Stronger (3)
0.33
0.33
0.00
0.00
0.50
0.50
vs Similar (27)
0.96
0.63
0.79
0.57
1.15
0.69
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
53% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Yeovil) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Yeovil over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Yeovil over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Yeovil over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Carlisle over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Carlisle over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Carlisle over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 5.5 cards
80.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
75.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
74.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
72.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BAR (11)
€2m
HAR (14)
€1m
FG (4)
€1m
BU (6)
€1m
EAS (5)
€1m
SOU (3)
€1m
HAR (6)
€1m
SOL (3)
€0m
ALT (5)
€0m
ALD (4)
€0m
WOK (3)
€0m
YEO (3)
€0m
SCU (2)
€0m
TAM (4)
€0m
CAR (1)
€0m
WEA (2)
€0m
HAL (2)
€0m
GAT (1)
€0m
SUT (1)
€0m
Yeovil and Carlisle have a similar squad value (both €0m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BAR (3)
€0m
FG (2)
€0m
ALD (3)
€0m
HAR (4)
€0m
ALT (3)
€0m
SOL (2)
€0m
EAS (1)
€0m
HAR (2)
€0m
SCU (1)
€0m
GAT (1)
€0m
YEO (1)
€0m
BU (1)
€0m
TAM (2)
€0m
HAL (1)
€0m
WOK (1)
€0m
CAR (0)
€0m
SOU (0)
€0m
SUT (0)
€0m
WEA (0)
€0m
Yeovil and Carlisle have a similar attack value (both €0m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BAR (5)
€1m
HAR (4)
€1m
SOU (2)
€0m
BU (2)
€0m
HAR (2)
€0m
TAM (2)
€0m
YEO (1)
€0m
ALT (1)
€0m
EAS (1)
€0m
SUT (1)
€0m
WEA (1)
€0m
SCU (0)
€0m
FG (0)
€0m
CAR (0)
€0m
GAT (0)
€0m
ALD (0)
€0m
SOL (0)
€0m
HAL (0)
€0m
WOK (0)
€0m
Yeovil and Carlisle have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BAR (3)
€1m
HAR (6)
€0m
BU (3)
€0m
EAS (3)
€0m
FG (2)
€0m
WOK (2)
€0m
CAR (1)
€0m
SOL (1)
€0m
SOU (1)
€0m
SCU (1)
€0m
YEO (1)
€0m
HAR (2)
€0m
WEA (1)
€0m
HAL (1)
€0m
ALD (1)
€0m
ALT (1)
€0m
GAT (0)
€0m
TAM (0)
€0m
SUT (0)
€0m
Yeovil and Carlisle have a similar defence value (both €0m).
England: National League 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full England: National League stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Sutton
Boreham Wood
Southend
Eastleigh
Harrogate
Aldershot
Boston Utd
Hartlepool
Scunthorpe
Halifax
Gateshead
Altrincham
Forest Green
Woking
Wealdstone
Barrow
Tamworth
Solihull