Yeovil’s recent 2-game winning streak and a 2-1 victory over Barrow suggest a solid home attack, while Tamworth’s away form shows a defensive frailty, conceding 2.29 goals per game. The model projects a high-scoring encounter, with an expected total of 3.2 goals and a 22% chance of exactly three goals. The most likely scoreline is 1-1, a 11.3% probability. The favourite outcome is a Yeovil win, with a 50% home win probability, a 25% draw probability, and a 26% away win probability. Yeovil averages 1.47 goals scored and 1.33 conceded at home against similar opposition; Tamworth averages 1.07 scored and 2.29 conceded away. Suggested picks include Under 7.5 (98.4%), Away under 2.5 HT goals (98.0% with a 4% edge), Away under 2.5 2H goals (96.3% with a 4% edge), Home under 2.5 HT goals (96.3% with a 4% edge), Under 6.5 (95.8% with a 3% edge), Away under 3.5 goals (95.7% with a 4% edge), Home under 2.5 2H goals (94.7% with a 5% edge), and Under 5.5 (90.0%).
Results analysis
Yeovil’s 3-2 triumph over Tamworth kept the model’s favourite on target, extending their three-game winning run. The Pythia model had picked a Home win with a 50% probability, and the outcome matched that call. The match’s most likely scoreline was 2-0, yet the final result was 3-2, a slight deviation that still fell within the model’s broader 3-goal expectation. Every suggested selection hit: Under 7.5 goals at 98.4%, Away under 2.5 HT goals at 97.9%, Away under 2.5 2H goals at 95.9%, Under 6.5 at 95.8%, Away under 3.5 goals at 95.7%, Home under 2.5 HT goals at 95.6%, Home under 2.5 2H goals at 94.7%, and Under 5.5 at 90.0%. The model’s predictions proved remarkably accurate.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Yeovil win✓ Hit
49.6%
Avg Implied 43.1% · @ 2.13
Edge
+6.5%
Best 5 market prices
Unibet
2.23
Betano
2.18
Dafabet
2.17
Superbet
2.17
10Bet
2.15
Draw✗ Miss
24.7%
Avg Implied 26.5% · @ 3.46
Edge
-1.8%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
3.71
Dafabet
3.60
BetVictor
3.50
William Hil
3.50
Betfair
3.50
Tamworth win✗ Miss
25.7%
Avg Implied 30.4% · @ 3.01
Edge
-4.7%
Best 5 market prices
Superbet
3.15
Pinnacle
3.13
Betano
3.10
Bet365
3.10
Dafabet
3.05
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Yeovil
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.23
1.43
1.47
1.33
1.00
1.53
vs Stronger (2)
2.00
2.00
-
-
2.00
2.00
vs Similar (28)
1.18
1.39
1.47
1.33
0.85
1.46
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
23% (-3pp vs league)
This opponent (Tamworth) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Tamworth
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.47
1.73
1.73
1.13
1.20
2.33
vs Stronger (3)
2.33
2.33
2.00
2.00
3.00
3.00
vs Similar (27)
1.37
1.67
1.69
1.00
1.07
2.29
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
17% (-9pp vs league)
This opponent (Yeovil) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.2 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
83.3%
@ 1.19+5.3%
Under 1.5
16.7%
@ 4.21-5.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
1.22
Betano
1.22
Bet365
1.20
Pinnacle
1.20
Superbet
1.19
Under
Betfair
4.50
Pinnacle
4.43
BetVictor
4.40
Bet365
4.33
Marathonbet
4.20
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
61.0%
@ 1.66+4.9%
Under 2.5
39.0%
@ 2.12-4.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.70
Pinnacle
1.68
Unibet
1.68
Bet365
1.67
10Bet
1.65
Under
Pinnacle
2.20
Bet365
2.15
10Bet
2.15
Marathonbet
2.12
1xBet
2.12
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
38.7%
@ 2.61+3.2%
Under 3.5
61.3%
@ 1.43-3.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
2.75
Unibet
2.70
Pinnacle
2.65
Bet365
2.62
10Bet
2.60
Under
Betano
1.47
Pinnacle
1.47
Superbet
1.46
10Bet
1.45
BetVictor
1.45
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
62.3%
@ 1.55+2.9%
No
37.7%
@ 2.27-2.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Bet365
1.57
Betfair
1.57
William Hil
1.57
Superbet
1.55
Betano
1.55
No
1xBet
2.32
BetVictor
2.30
Superbet
2.30
Betano
2.30
Marathonbet
2.28
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.3%@ 6.33+4.5%
2-1
9.5%@ 7.89+4.1%
2-0
7.4%@ 10.61+3.3%
1-0
6.9%@ 8.50+1.8%
1-2
6.7%@ 9.63+2.2%
2-2
6.2%@ 10.51+2.1%
3-1
5.9%@ 13.82+2.8%
0-0
5.3%@ 11.75+1.6%
Yeovil goals ↓
Tamworth goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
5.3%
4.5%
3.6%
1.5%
0.5%
1
6.9%
11%
6.7%
2.9%
0.9%
2
7.4%
9.5%
6.2%
2.7%
0.9%
3
4.6%
5.9%
3.8%
1.7%
0.5%
4
2.1%
2.7%
1.8%
0.8%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Yeovil goals (down), columns = Tamworth goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Barrow
2.18
Harrogate
2.08
Carlisle
2.04
Boreham Wood
1.90
Scunthorpe
1.77
Forest Green
1.74
Southend
1.72
Halifax
1.52
Hartlepool
1.48
Fylde
1.38
Kidderminster
1.38
Woking
1.37
Tamworth
1.35
Boston Utd
1.28
Altrincham
1.24
Wealdstone
1.22
Solihull
1.22
Yeovil
1.11
Eastleigh
1.09
Gateshead
1.09
Sutton
1.02
Aldershot
1.00
Yeovil is 0.24 points worse than Tamworth in terms of average points per game (1.11 vs 1.35).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Barrow
2.30
Harrogate
2.20
Boreham Wood
2.00
Carlisle
1.87
Southend
1.77
Forest Green
1.74
Scunthorpe
1.69
Solihull
1.54
Halifax
1.50
Aldershot
1.50
Woking
1.50
Wealdstone
1.48
Fylde
1.45
Kidderminster
1.45
Boston Utd
1.37
Tamworth
1.37
Sutton
1.28
Eastleigh
1.24
Altrincham
1.20
Hartlepool
1.17
Gateshead
1.17
Yeovil
1.04
Yeovil is 0.33 goals worse than Tamworth in terms of goals scored per game (1.04 vs 1.37).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Barrow
0.92
Harrogate
0.96
Southend
1.02
Carlisle
1.11
Forest Green
1.11
Woking
1.17
Boreham Wood
1.24
Hartlepool
1.28
Scunthorpe
1.35
Altrincham
1.41
Halifax
1.43
Boston Utd
1.46
Fylde
1.46
Kidderminster
1.46
Yeovil
1.48
Tamworth
1.54
Solihull
1.57
Wealdstone
1.65
Sutton
1.72
Eastleigh
1.74
Aldershot
1.89
Gateshead
1.96
Yeovil is 0.07 goals better than Tamworth in terms of goals conceded per game (1.48 vs 1.54).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Boreham Wood
58%
Wealdstone
57%
Sutton
54%
Aldershot
54%
Forest Green
53%
Southend
52%
Altrincham
52%
Gateshead
50%
Woking
50%
Scunthorpe
49%
Carlisle
49%
Solihull
48%
Halifax
48%
Hartlepool
47%
Yeovil
47%
Eastleigh
41%
Tamworth
38%
Yeovil is 8.5 percentage points better than Tamworth in terms of average possession (47% vs 38%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Yeovil or Draw✓ Hit
74.3%
Avg Implied 69.6% · @ 1.33
Edge
+4.7%
50%
25%
26%
covers Yeovil + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.39
Betfair
1.36
Bet365
1.36
William Hil
1.36
BetVictor
1.33
Yeovil or Tamworth✓ Hit
75.3%
Avg Implied 73.6% · @ 1.25
Edge
+1.7%
50%
25%
26%
covers Yeovil + Tamworth
Best 5 market prices
Bet365
1.33
William Hil
1.30
Betano
1.29
Superbet
1.28
Betfair
1.25
Draw or Tamworth✗ Miss
50.4%
Avg Implied 56.8% · @ 1.62
Edge
-6.4%
50%
25%
26%
covers Draw + Tamworth
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.70
Bet365
1.67
Betfair
1.67
10Bet
1.65
Superbet
1.64
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Yeovil over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
84.4%
@ 1.17+5.4%
Under
15.6%
@ 4.41-5.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.20
Bet365
1.18
10Bet
1.17
BetVictor
1.17
Superbet
1.17
Under
1xBet
4.55
Betfair
4.50
Bet365
4.50
BetVictor
4.50
Superbet
4.40
Yeovil over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
55.4%
@ 1.90+6.8%
Under
44.6%
@ 1.79-6.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
2.00
Betano
1.93
Pinnacle
1.92
Unibet
1.91
BetVictor
1.91
Under
Pinnacle
1.86
Bet365
1.83
Superbet
1.82
Betano
1.82
1xBet
1.81
Yeovil over/under 2.5Actual: Over
Over
28.5%
@ 3.88+4.6%
Under
71.5%
@ 1.22-4.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
4.00
Bet365
4.00
Pinnacle
3.92
BetVictor
3.90
1xBet
3.88
Under
Betano
1.24
Pinnacle
1.23
Superbet
1.23
BetVictor
1.22
Bet365
1.22
Yeovil over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
11.8%
@ 8.78+1.1%
Under
88.2%
@ 1.05-1.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
10.00
Betfair
9.50
Superbet
8.10
Betano
7.50
Under
Betano
1.07
Bet365
1.06
Superbet
1.05
Betfair
1.04
Tamworth over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
72.6%
@ 1.28+0.2%
Under
27.4%
@ 3.36-0.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.30
BetVictor
1.29
Superbet
1.29
Betfair
1.29
Bet365
1.28
Under
Bet365
3.50
Pinnacle
3.47
BetVictor
3.40
Betano
3.35
Marathonbet
3.34
Tamworth over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
37.2%
@ 2.38-1.6%
Under
62.8%
@ 1.51+1.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
2.50
Pinnacle
2.50
Superbet
2.40
Bet365
2.38
BetVictor
2.38
Under
Betano
1.55
Bet365
1.53
BetVictor
1.53
Pinnacle
1.52
Superbet
1.51
Tamworth over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
14.2%
@ 5.45-2.8%
Under
85.8%
@ 1.11+2.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
5.65
Marathonbet
5.65
BetVictor
5.50
Bet365
5.50
Betfair
5.50
Under
Bet365
1.14
Betano
1.14
Betfair
1.13
Superbet
1.12
BetVictor
1.11
Tamworth over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
4.3%
@ 12.58-3.3%
Under
95.7%
@ 1.03+3.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
15.00
Superbet
13.00
Betano
9.75
Under
Bet365
1.03
Betano
1.03
Superbet
1.02
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Yeovil, so a minus line means Yeovil give that many goals of a start and Tamworth receive them. At -1, Yeovil must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Yeovil win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Yeovil)Actual: Tamworth
Yeovil -2
13.0%
@ 8.45+2.4%
Draw -2
15.4%
@ 6.17+0.8%
Tamworth +2
71.6%
@ 1.20-3.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
9.00
Bet365
9.00
Marathonbet
8.30
Superbet
7.50
Draw
Bet365
6.50
Marathonbet
6.40
Betfair
6.00
Superbet
5.80
Away
Superbet
1.23
Bet365
1.22
Marathonbet
1.18
Betfair
1.17
Handicap -1 (Yeovil)Actual: Draw
Yeovil -1
28.4%
@ 3.83+5.4%
Draw -1
21.2%
@ 3.91-1.4%
Tamworth +1
50.4%
@ 1.62-4.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
4.00
Bet365
4.00
10Bet
3.95
Marathonbet
3.88
Superbet
3.75
Draw
Bet365
4.33
Betfair
4.00
Superbet
4.00
Marathonbet
4.00
10Bet
3.85
Away
Bet365
1.67
Superbet
1.66
10Bet
1.65
Betfair
1.62
Marathonbet
1.61
Handicap +1 (Yeovil)Actual: Yeovil
Yeovil +1
74.3%
@ 1.32+7.8%
Draw +1
14.4%
@ 4.71-4.2%
Tamworth -1
11.3%
@ 5.88-3.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Superbet
1.34
Bet365
1.33
Betfair
1.33
Unibet
1.30
Marathonbet
1.30
Draw
Bet365
5.50
Marathonbet
4.95
Superbet
4.90
Betfair
4.50
Unibet
3.70
Away
Bet365
6.50
Marathonbet
6.35
Betfair
6.00
Superbet
5.85
Unibet
4.70
Handicap +2 (Yeovil)Actual: Yeovil
Yeovil +2
88.7%
@ 1.09+5.5%
Draw +2
7.5%
@ 8.70-3.0%
Tamworth -2
3.8%
@ 14.33-2.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.11
Superbet
1.10
Betfair
1.07
Draw
Bet365
9.00
Betfair
9.00
Superbet
8.10
Away
Betfair
15.00
Bet365
15.00
Superbet
13.00
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Yeovil
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.77
0.60
0.67
0.33
0.87
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
0.50
-
-
0.50
0.50
vs Similar (28)
0.46
0.79
0.60
0.67
0.31
0.92
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Tamworth) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Tamworth
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.83
0.47
0.47
0.73
1.20
vs Stronger (3)
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
vs Similar (27)
0.56
0.81
0.38
0.38
0.71
1.21
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Yeovil) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
72.3%
@ 1.30+1.1%
Under 0.5
27.7%
@ 3.22-1.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.36
Superbet
1.30
William Hil
1.30
10Bet
1.30
BetVictor
1.30
Under
Bet365
3.40
William Hil
3.30
Betfair
3.30
BetVictor
3.25
Superbet
3.20
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
38.3%
@ 2.41-0.0%
Under 1.5
61.7%
@ 1.50+0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.52
Pinnacle
2.49
William Hil
2.45
1xBet
2.41
Marathonbet
2.41
Under
Bet365
1.53
Pinnacle
1.53
BetVictor
1.51
Superbet
1.51
Betano
1.50
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
14.9%
@ 5.84-0.9%
Under 2.5
85.1%
@ 1.10+0.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
6.50
Bet365
6.00
BetVictor
6.00
1xBet
5.80
William Hil
5.80
Under
Betano
1.13
Bet365
1.12
William Hil
1.12
Superbet
1.12
BetVictor
1.10
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Yeovil over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
48.2%
@ 1.79-3.0%
Under
51.8%
@ 1.89+3.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.85
Marathonbet
1.79
1xBet
1.79
Pinnacle
1.79
Superbet
1.78
Under
Pinnacle
1.98
Superbet
1.92
Betano
1.88
1xBet
1.87
Marathonbet
1.87
Yeovil over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
16.2%
@ 5.12-1.8%
Under
83.8%
@ 1.12+1.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
5.35
Marathonbet
5.35
Betano
5.00
Superbet
4.80
Under
Superbet
1.15
Betano
1.15
1xBet
1.10
Marathonbet
1.10
Yeovil over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
4.4%
@ 12.88-3.0%
Under
95.6%
@ 1.02+3.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
15.00
Betano
10.75
Under
Betano
1.03
Superbet
1.01
Tamworth over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
42.1%
@ 2.07-2.4%
Under
57.9%
@ 1.66+2.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.14
Betano
2.12
Superbet
2.10
Marathonbet
2.05
1xBet
2.05
Under
Pinnacle
1.68
Betano
1.67
Superbet
1.66
Unibet
1.65
Marathonbet
1.65
Tamworth over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
10.9%
@ 6.72-2.8%
Under
89.1%
@ 1.07+2.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
7.20
Marathonbet
7.20
Superbet
6.30
Betano
6.20
Under
Betano
1.10
Superbet
1.08
1xBet
1.05
Marathonbet
1.05
Tamworth over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
2.1%
@ 17.00-3.5%
Under
97.9%
@ 1.01+3.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
22.00
Betano
12.00
Under
Betano
1.01
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Yeovil
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.67
0.87
0.67
0.67
0.67
vs Stronger (2)
1.50
1.50
-
-
1.50
1.50
vs Similar (28)
0.71
0.61
0.87
0.67
0.54
0.54
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Tamworth) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Tamworth
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
0.90
1.27
0.67
0.47
1.13
vs Stronger (3)
1.33
1.33
1.00
1.00
2.00
2.00
vs Similar (27)
0.81
0.85
1.31
0.62
0.36
1.07
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
33% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (Yeovil) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
79.9%
@ 1.17+0.7%
Under 0.5
20.1%
@ 4.45-0.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
1.20
Betano
1.19
Superbet
1.18
Bet365
1.18
Marathonbet
1.13
Under
Marathonbet
4.50
1xBet
4.50
Betano
4.50
Bet365
4.50
William Hil
4.40
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
48.7%
@ 1.85-1.1%
Under 1.5
51.3%
@ 1.84+1.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.88
Unibet
1.87
Marathonbet
1.86
1xBet
1.86
William Hil
1.85
Under
Betano
1.91
10Bet
1.90
William Hil
1.85
1xBet
1.84
Marathonbet
1.84
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
23.0%
@ 3.69-2.2%
Under 2.5
77.0%
@ 1.24+2.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
3.75
Bet365
3.75
Superbet
3.70
Marathonbet
3.68
1xBet
3.68
Under
Betano
1.29
Bet365
1.25
William Hil
1.25
Superbet
1.23
Marathonbet
1.20
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Yeovil over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
56.8%
@ 1.56-2.8%
Under
43.2%
@ 2.30+2.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.56
Superbet
1.56
Betano
1.55
Under
Betano
2.35
Superbet
2.27
1xBet
2.27
Yeovil over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
21.8%
@ 3.62-3.6%
Under
78.2%
@ 1.24+3.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
3.74
Superbet
3.65
1xBet
3.60
Betano
3.50
Under
Betano
1.27
Superbet
1.24
1xBet
1.23
Marathonbet
1.21
Yeovil over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
5.3%
@ 8.90-5.3%
Under
94.7%
@ 1.04+5.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
9.80
Betano
8.00
Under
Betano
1.06
Superbet
1.03
Tamworth over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
53.8%
@ 1.75+1.0%
Under
46.2%
@ 1.96-1.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.77
1xBet
1.76
Betano
1.75
Marathonbet
1.74
Under
Betano
2.02
1xBet
1.95
Superbet
1.95
Marathonbet
1.93
Tamworth over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
16.8%
@ 4.71-2.8%
Under
83.2%
@ 1.15+2.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
5.00
Superbet
4.75
1xBet
4.70
Betano
4.40
Under
Betano
1.19
Superbet
1.15
1xBet
1.14
Marathonbet
1.12
Tamworth over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
4.1%
@ 12.00-3.7%
Under
95.9%
@ 1.02+3.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
14.00
Betano
10.00
Under
Betano
1.03
Superbet
1.01
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 7.5
98.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 HT goals
97.9%
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
-
+3.5%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 2H goals
95.9%
1.02
Betano
1.03
Superbet
1.01
-
-
-
+3.7%
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
95.8%
1.01
Betano
1.03
Bet365
1.01
1xBet
1.01
Superbet
1.01
-
+1.4%
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
95.7%
1.03
Bet365
1.03
Betano
1.03
Superbet
1.02
-
-
+3.3%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 HT goals
95.6%
1.02
Betano
1.03
Superbet
1.01
-
-
-
+3.0%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 2H goals
94.7%
1.04
Betano
1.06
Superbet
1.03
-
-
-
+5.3%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
90.0%
1.05
Betano
1.07
Bet365
1.06
Superbet
1.05
BetVictor
1.03
Betfair
1.03
+0.5%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 HT goals
89.1%
1.07
Betano
1.10
Superbet
1.08
1xBet
1.05
Marathonbet
1.05
-
+2.8%
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
88.7%
1.09
Bet365
1.11
Superbet
1.10
Betfair
1.07
-
-
+5.5%
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
88.2%
1.05
Betano
1.07
Bet365
1.06
Superbet
1.05
Betfair
1.04
-
-1.1%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
85.8%
1.11
Bet365
1.14
Betano
1.14
Betfair
1.13
Superbet
1.12
BetVictor
1.11
+2.8%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 HT goals
85.1%
1.10
Betano
1.13
Bet365
1.12
William Hil
1.12
Superbet
1.12
BetVictor
1.10
+0.9%
✓ Hit
Home over 0.5 goals
84.4%
1.17
Betano
1.20
Bet365
1.18
10Bet
1.17
BetVictor
1.17
Superbet
1.17
+5.4%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 HT goals
83.8%
1.12
Superbet
1.15
Betano
1.15
1xBet
1.10
Marathonbet
1.10
-
+1.8%
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
83.3%
1.19
10Bet
1.22
Betano
1.22
Bet365
1.20
Pinnacle
1.20
Superbet
1.19
+5.3%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 2H goals
83.2%
1.15
Betano
1.19
Superbet
1.15
1xBet
1.14
Marathonbet
1.12
-
+2.8%
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 2H goals
79.9%
1.17
William Hil
1.20
Betano
1.19
Superbet
1.18
Bet365
1.18
Marathonbet
1.13
+0.7%
✓ Hit
Under 4.5
78.9%
1.15
Betano
1.18
Pinnacle
1.18
Superbet
1.17
Bet365
1.17
BetVictor
1.14
-1.7%
✗ Miss
Home under 1.5 2H goals
78.2%
1.24
Betano
1.27
Superbet
1.24
1xBet
1.23
Marathonbet
1.21
-
+3.6%
✗ Miss
Under 2.5 2H goals
77.0%
1.24
Betano
1.29
Bet365
1.25
William Hil
1.25
Superbet
1.23
Marathonbet
1.20
+2.2%
✗ Miss
Home or Away
75.3%
1.25
Bet365
1.33
William Hil
1.30
Betano
1.29
Superbet
1.28
Betfair
1.25
+1.7%
✓ Hit
Home or Draw
74.3%
1.33
Betano
1.39
Betfair
1.36
Bet365
1.36
William Hil
1.36
BetVictor
1.33
+4.7%
✓ Hit
Home +1 handicap
74.3%
1.32
Superbet
1.34
Bet365
1.33
Betfair
1.33
Unibet
1.30
Marathonbet
1.30
+7.8%
✓ Hit
Away over 0.5 goals
72.6%
1.28
Betano
1.30
BetVictor
1.29
Superbet
1.29
Betfair
1.29
Bet365
1.28
+0.2%
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 HT goals
72.3%
1.30
Betano
1.36
Superbet
1.30
William Hil
1.30
10Bet
1.30
BetVictor
1.30
+1.1%
✓ Hit
Away +2 handicap
71.6%
1.20
Superbet
1.23
Bet365
1.22
Marathonbet
1.18
Betfair
1.17
-
-3.2%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 goals
71.5%
1.22
Betano
1.24
Pinnacle
1.23
Superbet
1.23
BetVictor
1.22
Bet365
1.22
-4.6%
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BAR (11)
€2m
HAR (14)
€1m
FG (4)
€1m
BU (6)
€1m
EAS (5)
€1m
SOU (3)
€1m
HAR (6)
€1m
SOL (3)
€0m
ALT (5)
€0m
ALD (4)
€0m
WOK (3)
€0m
YEO (3)
€0m
SCU (2)
€0m
TAM (4)
€0m
CAR (1)
€0m
WEA (2)
€0m
HAL (2)
€0m
GAT (1)
€0m
SUT (1)
€0m
Yeovil and Tamworth have a similar squad value (both €0m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BAR (3)
€0m
FG (2)
€0m
ALD (3)
€0m
HAR (4)
€0m
ALT (3)
€0m
SOL (2)
€0m
EAS (1)
€0m
HAR (2)
€0m
SCU (1)
€0m
GAT (1)
€0m
YEO (1)
€0m
BU (1)
€0m
TAM (2)
€0m
HAL (1)
€0m
WOK (1)
€0m
CAR (0)
€0m
SOU (0)
€0m
SUT (0)
€0m
WEA (0)
€0m
Yeovil and Tamworth have a similar attack value (both €0m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BAR (5)
€1m
HAR (4)
€1m
SOU (2)
€0m
BU (2)
€0m
HAR (2)
€0m
TAM (2)
€0m
YEO (1)
€0m
ALT (1)
€0m
EAS (1)
€0m
SUT (1)
€0m
WEA (1)
€0m
SCU (0)
€0m
FG (0)
€0m
CAR (0)
€0m
GAT (0)
€0m
ALD (0)
€0m
SOL (0)
€0m
HAL (0)
€0m
WOK (0)
€0m
Yeovil and Tamworth have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BAR (3)
€1m
HAR (6)
€0m
BU (3)
€0m
EAS (3)
€0m
FG (2)
€0m
WOK (2)
€0m
CAR (1)
€0m
SOL (1)
€0m
SOU (1)
€0m
SCU (1)
€0m
YEO (1)
€0m
HAR (2)
€0m
WEA (1)
€0m
HAL (1)
€0m
ALD (1)
€0m
ALT (1)
€0m
GAT (0)
€0m
TAM (0)
€0m
SUT (0)
€0m
Yeovil and Tamworth have a similar defence value (both €0m).
England: National League 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full England: National League stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Sutton
Boreham Wood
Harrogate
Southend
Eastleigh
Aldershot
Boston Utd
Halifax
Hartlepool
Altrincham
Carlisle
Wealdstone
Scunthorpe
Woking
Gateshead
Forest Green
Barrow
Solihull