The clash between Zaglebie Lubin and Pogon Szczecin feels razor-thin, with the model favouring a home win yet leaving the draw and away win within striking distance. Home victory carries a 36% chance, a draw 31%, and an away win 33%. The expected total of 2.3 goals points to a modestly low-scoring affair, and the most probable aggregate is two goals, a 28% probability. The single scoreline the model deems most likely is a 1-1 draw, with a 14.6% chance. Zaglebie’s home form shows 1.2 goals for and 0.7 against against similarly-matched opponents, while Pogon’s away record is 1.08 for and 1.42 against. The model’s selections lean heavily on low-scoring outcomes: Under 7.5 (99.8%), Under 6.5 (99.2% with a 7% edge), Away under 2.5 HT goals (98.5% with a 6% edge), Away under 3.5 goals (98.1% with a 7% edge), Home under 2.5 HT goals (97.9% with a 6% edge), Away under 2.5 2H goals (97.3% with a 6% edge), Under 5.5 (97.2% with a 6% edge), and Home under 2.5 2H goals (96.7% with a 6% edge). Both sides have recently finished draws - Zaglebie 0-0 against Radomiak Radom and Pogon 2-2 against Wisla Krakow - adding to the uncertainty.
Results analysis
The 0-0 stalemate surprised everyone, as the pre-match favourite was Zaglebie Lubin, who the model had picked to win with a 37% probability, but the prediction was wrong. The draw extended both sides’ recent runs, each coming off a 0-0 tie. The model’s selections all hit: Under 7.5 goals at 99.8%, Under 6.5 at 99.2%, Away under 2.5 HT goals at 98.7%, Away under 3.5 goals at 98.0%, Home under 2.5 HT goals at 97.6%, Under 5.5 at 97.3%, Away under 2.5 2H goals at 97.3%, and Home under 2.5 2H goals at 97.1%. Despite the favourite’s failure, the model’s other predictions proved accurate, confirming a low-scoring, tightly contested match.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Zaglebie Lubin win✗ Miss
37.0%
Avg Implied 36.8% · @ 2.52
Edge
+0.2%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
2.67
Betfair
2.55
Betano
2.55
Bet365
2.55
Dafabet
2.55
Draw✓ Hit
31.0%
Avg Implied 28.3% · @ 3.28
Edge
+2.7%
Best 5 market prices
Betfair
3.40
10Bet
3.40
Marathonbet
3.40
1xBet
3.40
Dafabet
3.35
Pogon Szczecin win✗ Miss
32.0%
Avg Implied 34.9% · @ 2.65
Edge
-2.9%
Best 5 market prices
Unibet
2.85
Pinnacle
2.76
Dafabet
2.75
Superbet
2.72
Betano
2.70
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Zaglebie Lubin
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
0.97
1.07
0.64
0.94
1.25
vs Stronger (8)
0.62
0.88
0.75
0.50
0.50
1.25
vs Similar (22)
1.14
1.00
1.20
0.70
1.08
1.25
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Pogon Szczecin) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Pogon Szczecin
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.37
1.20
1.59
1.12
1.08
1.31
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (28)
1.36
1.18
1.60
1.07
1.08
1.31
vs Weaker (2)
1.50
1.50
1.50
1.50
-
-
Clean sheet %
23% (-3pp vs league)
This opponent (Zaglebie Lubin) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
68.1%
@ 1.28-4.9%
Under 1.5
31.9%
@ 3.46+4.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.31
Betfair
1.29
Pinnacle
1.29
BetVictor
1.29
Superbet
1.28
Under
Pinnacle
3.72
10Bet
3.65
Betfair
3.50
Bet365
3.50
Superbet
3.50
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
40.3%
@ 1.90-9.4%
Under 2.5
59.7%
@ 1.87+9.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.95
Bet365
1.95
Betano
1.93
Unibet
1.93
Betfair
1.90
Under
10Bet
1.95
SBO
1.93
Pinnacle
1.92
1xBet
1.88
Marathonbet
1.88
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
20.0%
@ 3.20-9.1%
Under 3.5
80.0%
@ 1.31+9.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
3.40
BetVictor
3.30
Pinnacle
3.27
Unibet
3.25
Betfair
3.25
Under
10Bet
1.36
Pinnacle
1.35
Betfair
1.33
Betano
1.33
Superbet
1.33
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
47.8%
@ 1.68-7.3%
No
52.2%
@ 2.07+7.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Betfair
1.73
Unibet
1.71
Betano
1.70
Superbet
1.69
BetVictor
1.67
No
10Bet
2.15
William Hil
2.10
Betfair
2.10
Bet365
2.10
1xBet
2.08
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.6%@ 6.04+7.2%
0-0 ✓
11.4%@ 10.00+6.9%
1-0
10.8%@ 8.21+5.3%
0-1
9.7%@ 8.45+4.4%
2-1
7.9%@ 8.95+2.9%
1-2
7.3%@ 9.15+2.4%
2-0
7.2%@ 12.15+3.6%
0-2
6.1%@ 12.60+2.5%
Zaglebie Lubin goals ↓
Pogon Szczecin goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
11%
9.7%
6.1%
2.2%
0.6%
1
11%
15%
7.3%
2.7%
0.7%
2
7.2%
7.9%
4.3%
1.6%
0.4%
3
2.9%
3.2%
1.7%
0.6%
0.2%
4
0.9%
0.9%
0.5%
0.2%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Zaglebie Lubin goals (down), columns = Pogon Szczecin goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Lech Poznan
2.60
Gornik Zabrze
2.40
Legia Warszawa
2.00
GKS Katowice
1.80
Jagiellonia
1.80
Wisla Krakow
1.67
Pogon Szczecin
1.60
Zaglebie Lubin
1.60
Korona Kielce
1.60
Cracovia Krakow
1.33
Piast Gliwice
1.17
Radomiak Radom
1.17
Widzew Łódź
1.00
Slask Wroclaw
1.00
Motor Lublin
0.83
Wisla Plock
0.80
Wieczysta Kraków
0.60
Raków Częstochowa
0.00
Zaglebie Lubin and Pogon Szczecin are level in average points per game (both 1.60).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
GKS Katowice
2.40
Gornik Zabrze
2.20
Wisla Krakow
2.00
Lech Poznan
2.00
Legia Warszawa
2.00
Jagiellonia
1.80
Piast Gliwice
1.67
Widzew Łódź
1.67
Wieczysta Kraków
1.60
Pogon Szczecin
1.40
Slask Wroclaw
1.33
Raków Częstochowa
1.20
Korona Kielce
1.20
Radomiak Radom
1.00
Motor Lublin
1.00
Zaglebie Lubin
1.00
Cracovia Krakow
1.00
Wisla Plock
0.60
Zaglebie Lubin is 0.40 goals worse than Pogon Szczecin in terms of goals scored per game (1.00 vs 1.40).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Legia Warszawa
0.67
Pogon Szczecin
0.80
Zaglebie Lubin
0.80
Korona Kielce
0.80
Lech Poznan
0.80
Cracovia Krakow
1.17
GKS Katowice
1.20
Gornik Zabrze
1.40
Jagiellonia
1.40
Slask Wroclaw
1.50
Wisla Krakow
1.67
Motor Lublin
1.67
Widzew Łódź
1.67
Wisla Plock
2.00
Piast Gliwice
2.17
Radomiak Radom
2.17
Wieczysta Kraków
2.40
Raków Częstochowa
2.60
Zaglebie Lubin and Pogon Szczecin are level in goals conceded per game (both 0.80).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Jagiellonia
58%
Piast Gliwice
56%
Wieczysta Kraków
54%
Lech Poznan
54%
Gornik Zabrze
53%
Raków Częstochowa
53%
Wisla Plock
52%
Legia Warszawa
52%
Wisla Krakow
52%
Radomiak Radom
50%
GKS Katowice
48%
Cracovia Krakow
48%
Korona Kielce
48%
Slask Wroclaw
47%
Zaglebie Lubin
47%
Widzew Łódź
46%
Motor Lublin
46%
Pogon Szczecin
41%
Zaglebie Lubin is 6.2 percentage points better than Pogon Szczecin in terms of average possession (47% vs 41%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Zaglebie Lubin
For 4.0 · Against 8.2 · Total 12.2
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.5 · Against 1.7 · Total 4.2
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.2 · Against 12.5 · Total 24.7
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Pogon Szczecin
For 3.3 · Against 5.4 · Total 8.7
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.0 · Against 2.0 · Total 4.0
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 14.3 · Against 10.5 · Total 24.8
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Zaglebie Lubin
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.3
9.4
11.3
3.9
4.5
3.3
24.7
25.2
24.2
vs Stronger (11)
9.8
9.2
10.3
4.7
5.2
4.3
26.8
28.6
25.3
vs Similar (39)
10.5
9.5
11.6
3.6
4.3
2.9
24.1
24.3
23.8
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
54%
40%
70%
58%
68%
48%
73%
72%
74%
% under line
46%
60%
30%
42%
32%
52%
27%
28%
26%
This opponent (Pogon Szczecin) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Pogon Szczecin
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.5
10.6
10.4
3.6
4.0
3.1
24.0
22.8
25.2
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (43)
10.2
10.2
10.2
3.6
3.9
3.2
23.8
22.3
25.7
vs Weaker (7)
12.0
14.0
11.0
3.6
6.0
2.6
24.8
28.0
23.2
% over line
56%
61%
50%
44%
48%
40%
60%
57%
64%
% under line
44%
39%
50%
56%
52%
60%
40%
43%
36%
This opponent (Zaglebie Lubin) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Wisla Krakow
11.2
Wieczysta Kraków
11.0
Pogon Szczecin
10.6
Zaglebie Lubin
10.3
Slask Wroclaw
10.2
Korona Kielce
10.2
Lech Poznan
10.1
Gornik Zabrze
10.1
Motor Lublin
10.1
Radomiak Radom
10.0
Cracovia Krakow
9.9
Piast Gliwice
9.9
GKS Katowice
9.8
Wisla Plock
9.7
Jagiellonia
9.5
Widzew Łódź
9.1
Legia Warszawa
9.1
Raków Częstochowa
8.0
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Widzew Łódź
5.3
Radomiak Radom
5.0
Motor Lublin
4.9
Raków Częstochowa
4.7
Slask Wroclaw
4.6
Jagiellonia
4.5
Zaglebie Lubin
4.5
Cracovia Krakow
4.4
Legia Warszawa
4.3
Gornik Zabrze
4.0
Wisla Plock
4.0
Pogon Szczecin
4.0
Lech Poznan
3.9
Wisla Krakow
3.9
Korona Kielce
3.9
GKS Katowice
3.8
Wieczysta Kraków
3.8
Piast Gliwice
3.7
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Radomiak Radom
27.8
Widzew Łódź
26.5
Wieczysta Kraków
26.5
Jagiellonia
26.4
Legia Warszawa
25.9
Korona Kielce
25.6
Wisla Krakow
25.4
Motor Lublin
25.3
Cracovia Krakow
25.2
Raków Częstochowa
24.9
Zaglebie Lubin
24.7
Slask Wroclaw
24.6
Piast Gliwice
24.5
Lech Poznan
23.9
GKS Katowice
23.8
Pogon Szczecin
23.6
Gornik Zabrze
22.9
Wisla Plock
22.8
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
52.3%
@ 1.62-4.6%
Under 9.5
47.7%
@ 2.14+4.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.68
Betano
1.65
Superbet
1.65
1xBet
1.63
Marathonbet
1.56
Under
Unibet
2.18
Marathonbet
2.18
Betano
2.15
Pinnacle
2.14
Superbet
2.10
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
57.9%
@ 1.48-4.0%
Under 3.5
42.1%
@ 2.40+4.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.48
Under
Superbet
2.40
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
76.9%
Under 21.5
23.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Zaglebie Lubin or Draw✓ Hit
70.7%
Avg Implied 64.6% · @ 1.44
Edge
+6.1%
37%
31%
32%
covers Zaglebie Lubin + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Bet365
1.50
Betfair
1.50
Betano
1.47
Marathonbet
1.45
10Bet
1.45
Zaglebie Lubin or Pogon Szczecin✗ Miss
68.8%
Avg Implied 72.1% · @ 1.30
Edge
-3.2%
37%
31%
32%
covers Zaglebie Lubin + Pogon Szczecin
Best 5 market prices
Bet365
1.36
Betano
1.32
Superbet
1.31
Betfair
1.30
William Hil
1.30
Draw or Pogon Szczecin✓ Hit
60.5%
Avg Implied 63.3% · @ 1.47
Edge
-2.8%
37%
31%
32%
covers Draw + Pogon Szczecin
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.53
10Bet
1.50
Bet365
1.50
Unibet
1.48
Superbet
1.48
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Zaglebie Lubin over/under 0.5Actual: Under
Over
70.7%
@ 1.27-2.2%
Under
29.3%
@ 3.43+2.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.30
Betfair
1.29
BetVictor
1.29
Bet365
1.28
Pinnacle
1.28
Under
Pinnacle
3.64
10Bet
3.55
Bet365
3.50
1xBet
3.48
Marathonbet
3.48
Zaglebie Lubin over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
34.8%
@ 2.35-4.9%
Under
65.2%
@ 1.54+4.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
2.50
Pinnacle
2.48
BetVictor
2.38
Betano
2.35
Marathonbet
2.35
Under
10Bet
1.57
Bet365
1.57
Pinnacle
1.56
Superbet
1.55
Betano
1.55
Zaglebie Lubin over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
12.7%
@ 5.36-4.6%
Under
87.3%
@ 1.12+4.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
6.00
1xBet
5.50
BetVictor
5.50
Marathonbet
5.50
Bet365
5.50
Under
Betano
1.15
Bet365
1.14
Superbet
1.13
Betfair
1.13
10Bet
1.13
Zaglebie Lubin over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
3.6%
@ 12.25-4.1%
Under
96.4%
@ 1.03+4.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
15.00
Superbet
12.00
Betano
9.75
Under
Bet365
1.03
Betano
1.03
Superbet
1.02
Pogon Szczecin over/under 0.5Actual: Under
Over
64.0%
@ 1.29-8.1%
Under
36.0%
@ 3.33+8.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
1.32
Betano
1.31
Superbet
1.30
Betfair
1.29
BetVictor
1.29
Under
Pinnacle
3.55
Bet365
3.50
10Bet
3.40
Marathonbet
3.40
1xBet
3.40
Pogon Szczecin over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
27.2%
@ 2.42-11.2%
Under
72.8%
@ 1.51+11.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
2.55
Pinnacle
2.53
Betano
2.45
Superbet
2.42
BetVictor
2.40
Under
Pinnacle
1.54
10Bet
1.53
Bet365
1.53
Betfair
1.53
1xBet
1.52
Pogon Szczecin over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
8.4%
@ 5.50-8.4%
Under
91.6%
@ 1.12+8.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
5.70
1xBet
5.70
Betfair
5.50
BetVictor
5.50
Bet365
5.50
Under
Bet365
1.14
Betfair
1.13
Betano
1.13
10Bet
1.12
Superbet
1.12
Pogon Szczecin over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
2.0%
@ 13.08-5.2%
Under
98.0%
@ 1.02+5.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
15.00
Superbet
14.00
Betano
10.25
Under
Betano
1.03
Bet365
1.03
Superbet
1.01
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Zaglebie Lubin, so a minus line means Zaglebie Lubin give that many goals of a start and Pogon Szczecin receive them. At -1, Zaglebie Lubin must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Zaglebie Lubin win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
This opponent (Pogon Szczecin) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Pogon Szczecin
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.60
0.88
0.53
0.54
0.69
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (28)
0.68
0.64
0.80
0.60
0.54
0.69
vs Weaker (2)
1.50
0.00
1.50
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
53% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Zaglebie Lubin) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
67.0%
@ 1.36-1.1%
Under 0.5
33.0%
@ 2.90+1.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.42
BetVictor
1.39
Pinnacle
1.37
Superbet
1.37
Unibet
1.37
Under
Pinnacle
3.08
Betfair
3.00
Bet365
3.00
10Bet
2.95
Marathonbet
2.90
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
30.2%
@ 2.71-4.0%
Under 1.5
69.8%
@ 1.41+4.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.85
Betfair
2.75
Bet365
2.75
Unibet
2.75
1xBet
2.73
Under
10Bet
1.45
Betano
1.44
BetVictor
1.42
Pinnacle
1.42
Superbet
1.41
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
9.6%
@ 6.66-4.3%
Under 2.5
90.4%
@ 1.08+4.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
7.50
Bet365
7.00
1xBet
6.95
Marathonbet
6.95
William Hil
6.50
Under
Betano
1.11
William Hil
1.10
Bet365
1.10
10Bet
1.09
Superbet
1.08
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Zaglebie Lubin over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
45.6%
@ 2.04-0.1%
Under
54.4%
@ 1.71+0.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
2.10
Pinnacle
2.10
Betano
2.05
Marathonbet
2.03
Superbet
2.02
Under
10Bet
1.77
Pinnacle
1.74
Betano
1.72
Superbet
1.70
Unibet
1.70
Zaglebie Lubin over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
10.8%
@ 6.27-4.0%
Under
89.2%
@ 1.09+4.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
7.20
1xBet
6.50
Superbet
6.10
Betano
5.80
10Bet
5.75
Under
Betano
1.11
10Bet
1.10
Superbet
1.09
1xBet
1.08
Marathonbet
1.06
Zaglebie Lubin over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
2.4%
@ 16.38-3.4%
Under
97.6%
@ 1.02+3.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
21.00
Betano
11.75
Under
Betano
1.02
Pogon Szczecin over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
42.2%
@ 2.09-2.4%
Under
57.8%
@ 1.68+2.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.14
1xBet
2.10
Unibet
2.10
Superbet
2.10
Betano
2.07
Under
10Bet
1.73
Pinnacle
1.71
Betano
1.70
1xBet
1.67
Marathonbet
1.67
Pogon Szczecin over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
10.5%
@ 6.53-3.7%
Under
89.5%
@ 1.08+3.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
7.30
Superbet
6.50
1xBet
6.50
10Bet
6.25
Betano
6.10
Under
Betano
1.10
1xBet
1.08
10Bet
1.08
Superbet
1.08
Marathonbet
1.06
Pogon Szczecin over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
1.3%
@ 17.00-4.3%
Under
98.7%
@ 1.01+4.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
22.00
Betano
12.00
Under
Betano
1.01
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Zaglebie Lubin
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.43
0.64
0.36
0.69
0.50
vs Stronger (8)
0.25
0.38
0.25
0.25
0.25
0.50
vs Similar (22)
0.82
0.45
0.80
0.40
0.83
0.50
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
67% (+40pp vs league)
This opponent (Pogon Szczecin) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Pogon Szczecin
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.60
0.71
0.59
0.54
0.62
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (28)
0.68
0.54
0.80
0.47
0.54
0.62
vs Weaker (2)
0.00
1.50
0.00
1.50
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+20pp vs league)
This opponent (Zaglebie Lubin) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
76.4%
@ 1.22+0.3%
Under 0.5
23.6%
@ 3.87-0.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.27
Superbet
1.23
William Hil
1.22
Bet365
1.22
10Bet
1.20
Under
10Bet
4.00
Bet365
4.00
1xBet
3.92
Marathonbet
3.92
William Hil
3.80
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
40.4%
@ 2.06-4.6%
Under 1.5
59.6%
@ 1.69+4.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.15
Unibet
2.12
1xBet
2.08
Marathonbet
2.08
Superbet
2.07
Under
10Bet
1.73
Bet365
1.73
William Hil
1.70
1xBet
1.69
Marathonbet
1.69
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
14.4%
@ 4.36-6.8%
Under 2.5
85.6%
@ 1.18+6.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
4.50
1xBet
4.45
Marathonbet
4.45
Superbet
4.35
Bet365
4.33
Under
10Bet
1.20
Bet365
1.20
Betano
1.19
William Hil
1.18
Superbet
1.18
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Zaglebie Lubin over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
52.3%
@ 1.75-0.8%
Under
47.7%
@ 1.98+0.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.78
Superbet
1.75
1xBet
1.73
Marathonbet
1.73
Under
1xBet
2.00
Betano
1.98
Marathonbet
1.97
Superbet
1.97
Zaglebie Lubin over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
16.4%
@ 4.65-3.6%
Under
83.6%
@ 1.16+3.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
5.00
Superbet
4.60
1xBet
4.60
Betano
4.55
10Bet
4.50
Under
10Bet
1.17
Betano
1.17
Superbet
1.16
1xBet
1.15
Marathonbet
1.14
Zaglebie Lubin over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
2.9%
@ 12.12-4.9%
Under
97.1%
@ 1.02+4.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
14.00
Betano
10.25
Under
Betano
1.03
Superbet
1.01
Pogon Szczecin over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
45.8%
@ 1.77-6.6%
Under
54.2%
@ 1.94+6.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.80
Superbet
1.78
Marathonbet
1.75
1xBet
1.74
Under
1xBet
1.97
Marathonbet
1.94
Betano
1.93
Superbet
1.92
Pogon Szczecin over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
13.0%
@ 4.82-6.2%
Under
87.0%
@ 1.14+6.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
5.05
Superbet
4.85
Betano
4.75
10Bet
4.75
1xBet
4.70
Under
Betano
1.16
10Bet
1.15
Superbet
1.14
1xBet
1.14
Marathonbet
1.13
Pogon Szczecin over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
2.7%
@ 12.75-4.7%
Under
97.3%
@ 1.02+4.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
15.00
Betano
10.50
Under
Betano
1.03
Superbet
1.01
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 7.5
99.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
99.2%
1.01
Betano
1.01
1xBet
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
+3.2%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 HT goals
98.7%
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
-
+4.3%
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
98.0%
1.02
Betano
1.03
Bet365
1.03
Superbet
1.01
-
-
+5.2%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 HT goals
97.6%
1.02
Betano
1.02
-
-
-
-
+3.4%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
97.3%
1.03
Betano
1.04
1xBet
1.03
Superbet
1.03
Bet365
1.03
Betfair
1.02
+5.1%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 2H goals
97.3%
1.02
Betano
1.03
Superbet
1.01
-
-
-
+4.7%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 2H goals
97.1%
1.02
Betano
1.03
Superbet
1.01
-
-
-
+4.9%
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
96.4%
1.03
Bet365
1.03
Betano
1.03
Superbet
1.02
-
-
+4.1%
✓ Hit
Under 4.5
92.2%
1.10
Pinnacle
1.13
Betano
1.12
10Bet
1.12
Bet365
1.11
Superbet
1.11
+7.3%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
91.6%
1.12
Bet365
1.14
Betfair
1.13
Betano
1.13
10Bet
1.12
Superbet
1.12
+8.4%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 HT goals
90.4%
1.08
Betano
1.11
William Hil
1.10
Bet365
1.10
10Bet
1.09
Superbet
1.08
+4.3%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 HT goals
89.5%
1.08
Betano
1.10
1xBet
1.08
10Bet
1.08
Superbet
1.08
Marathonbet
1.06
+3.7%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 HT goals
89.2%
1.09
Betano
1.11
10Bet
1.10
Superbet
1.09
1xBet
1.08
Marathonbet
1.06
+4.0%
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
88.5%
1.13
Bet365
1.14
Betfair
1.13
10Bet
1.12
-
-
+8.2%
✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
87.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 goals
87.3%
1.12
Betano
1.15
Bet365
1.14
Superbet
1.13
Betfair
1.13
10Bet
1.13
+4.6%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 2H goals
87.0%
1.14
Betano
1.16
10Bet
1.15
Superbet
1.14
1xBet
1.14
Marathonbet
1.13
+6.2%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 2H goals
85.6%
1.18
10Bet
1.20
Bet365
1.20
Betano
1.19
William Hil
1.18
Superbet
1.18
+6.8%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 2H goals
83.6%
1.16
10Bet
1.17
Betano
1.17
Superbet
1.16
1xBet
1.15
Marathonbet
1.14
+3.6%
✓ Hit
Away +2 handicap
82.1%
1.14
10Bet
1.15
Superbet
1.15
Bet365
1.14
Unibet
1.14
Betfair
1.13
+4.1%
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
80.0%
1.31
10Bet
1.36
Pinnacle
1.35
Betfair
1.33
Betano
1.33
Superbet
1.33
+9.1%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards
77.5%
1.34
Superbet
1.34
-
-
-
-
+9.7%
✗ Miss
Over 2.5 cards
77.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
76.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 2H goals
76.4%
1.22
Betano
1.27
Superbet
1.23
William Hil
1.22
Bet365
1.22
10Bet
1.20
+0.3%
✗ Miss
Away under 1.5 goals
72.8%
1.51
Pinnacle
1.54
10Bet
1.53
Bet365
1.53
Betfair
1.53
1xBet
1.52
+11.2%
✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners
71.4%
1.44
Superbet
1.48
Unibet
1.47
Marathonbet
1.43
Betano
1.40
1xBet
1.40
+7.6%
✓ Hit
Home over 0.5 goals
70.7%
1.27
Betano
1.30
Betfair
1.29
BetVictor
1.29
Bet365
1.28
Pinnacle
1.28
-2.2%
✗ Miss
Home or Draw
70.7%
1.44
Bet365
1.50
Betfair
1.50
Betano
1.47
Marathonbet
1.45
10Bet
1.45
+6.1%
✓ Hit
Home +1 handicap
70.7%
1.44
Bet365
1.50
10Bet
1.45
Marathonbet
1.45
Superbet
1.44
Betfair
1.44
+8.6%
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Zaglebie Lubin
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Jakub Sypek33%
Filip Kocaba25%
Marcel Regula25%
Sebastian Kerk0%
Zlatan Alomerović0%
Mateusz Grzybek0%
Josip Ćorluka0%
Damian Michalski0%
Aleks Ławniczak0%
Filip Szymczak0%
Michalis Kosidis0%
Jakub Kolan0%
Kamil Nowogoński0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Mateusz Grzybek33%
Michalis Kosidis33%
Kamil Nowogoński33%
Filip Szymczak25%
Filip Kocaba25%
Sebastian Kerk0%
Zlatan Alomerović0%
Josip Ćorluka0%
Damian Michalski0%
Aleks Ławniczak0%
Jakub Sypek0%
Jakub Kolan0%
Marcel Regula0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Mateusz Grzybek33%
Jakub Sypek33%
Sebastian Kerk0%
Zlatan Alomerović0%
Josip Ćorluka0%
Damian Michalski0%
Aleks Ławniczak0%
Filip Szymczak0%
Michalis Kosidis0%
Filip Kocaba0%
Jakub Kolan0%
Marcel Regula0%
Kamil Nowogoński0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Marcel Regula75%
Aleks Ławniczak25%
Sebastian Kerk0%
Zlatan Alomerović0%
Mateusz Grzybek0%
Josip Ćorluka0%
Damian Michalski0%
Filip Szymczak0%
Jakub Sypek0%
Michalis Kosidis0%
Filip Kocaba0%
Jakub Kolan0%
Kamil Nowogoński0%
Pogon Szczecin
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Linus Wahlqvist25%
Attila Szalai25%
Darko Churlinov25%
Kellyn Acosta20%
Musa Juwara20%
Paul Mukairu20%
Léo Borges20%
Benjamin Mendy0%
Kamil Grosicki0%
Patryk Dziczek0%
Valentin Cojocaru0%
Fredrik Ulvestad0%
Hussein Ali0%
Dimitrios Keramitsis0%
Maciej Wojciechowski0%
Filip Čuić0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Dimitrios Keramitsis40%
Benjamin Mendy33%
Kamil Grosicki33%
Linus Wahlqvist25%
Patryk Dziczek20%
Valentin Cojocaru20%
Kellyn Acosta20%
Léo Borges20%
Attila Szalai0%
Fredrik Ulvestad0%
Musa Juwara0%
Darko Churlinov0%
Paul Mukairu0%
Hussein Ali0%
Maciej Wojciechowski0%
Filip Čuić0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Benjamin Mendy33%
Kamil Grosicki33%
Linus Wahlqvist25%
Maciej Wojciechowski25%
Paul Mukairu20%
Attila Szalai0%
Patryk Dziczek0%
Valentin Cojocaru0%
Fredrik Ulvestad0%
Kellyn Acosta0%
Musa Juwara0%
Darko Churlinov0%
Hussein Ali0%
Léo Borges0%
Dimitrios Keramitsis0%
Filip Čuić0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Paul Mukairu20%
Dimitrios Keramitsis20%
Benjamin Mendy0%
Kamil Grosicki0%
Linus Wahlqvist0%
Attila Szalai0%
Patryk Dziczek0%
Valentin Cojocaru0%
Fredrik Ulvestad0%
Kellyn Acosta0%
Musa Juwara0%
Darko Churlinov0%
Hussein Ali0%
Léo Borges0%
Maciej Wojciechowski0%
Filip Čuić0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LP (25)
€58m
WŁ (29)
€43m
RC (27)
€33m
JAG (26)
€30m
GZ (27)
€29m
CK (26)
€21m
LW (25)
€20m
PS (27)
€20m
ZL (28)
€19m
ML (20)
€19m
KK (23)
€16m
WK (24)
€13m
GK (26)
€13m
WP (25)
€12m
WK (22)
€12m
RR (25)
€11m
PG (22)
€9m
SW (22)
€7m
Zaglebie Lubin and Pogon Szczecin have a similar squad value (both €19m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
WŁ (13)
€21m
LP (10)
€21m
GZ (13)
€17m
JAG (11)
€12m
CK (12)
€11m
ZL (11)
€10m
LW (12)
€10m
ML (10)
€10m
RC (9)
€9m
PS (13)
€8m
WK (8)
€6m
WK (8)
€5m
RR (9)
€4m
PG (11)
€4m
WP (7)
€4m
KK (7)
€3m
GK (7)
€3m
SW (5)
€2m
Zaglebie Lubin's attack is €2m more valuable than Pogon Szczecin's (€10m vs €8m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RC (12)
€14m
LP (3)
€9m
KK (8)
€7m
WŁ (5)
€7m
GZ (4)
€6m
GK (10)
€6m
LW (7)
€4m
ZL (4)
€4m
JAG (5)
€3m
SW (9)
€3m
PS (5)
€3m
WP (9)
€3m
ML (2)
€2m
CK (4)
€2m
WK (4)
€2m
WK (3)
€1m
RR (4)
€1m
PG (1)
€0m
Zaglebie Lubin and Pogon Szczecin have a similar midfield value (both €4m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LP (12)
€28m
JAG (10)
€15m
WŁ (11)
€15m
RC (6)
€9m
PS (9)
€9m
CK (10)
€8m
ML (8)
€6m
GZ (10)
€6m
WP (9)
€6m
LW (6)
€6m
RR (12)
€6m
KK (8)
€5m
WK (12)
€5m
ZL (13)
€5m
WK (11)
€5m
GK (9)
€4m
PG (10)
€4m
SW (8)
€2m
Zaglebie Lubin's defence is €3m less valuable than Pogon Szczecin's (€5m vs €9m).
Poland: Ekstraklasa 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Poland: Ekstraklasa stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Lech Poznan
Legia Warszawa
Gornik Zabrze
Wisla Krakow
GKS Katowice
Jagiellonia
Korona Kielce
Cracovia Krakow
Piast Gliwice
Radomiak Radom
Widzew Łódź
Slask Wroclaw
Motor Lublin
Wisla Plock
Wieczysta Kraków
Raków Częstochowa