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Žalgiris II vs BFA Result & Analysis

Date: 11/05/2025
Time: 13:00
Final 4-1
Žalgiris II
Žalgiris II
Vs
28%
25%
47%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
BFA
BFA
Lithuania: 1 Lyga
Referee: -

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Žalgiris II win✓ Hit
27.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
25.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
BFA win✗ Miss
47.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

Žalgiris IIŽalgiris II

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-540W44D53W11D22D02L02L41W21W11DA·JON31/10H·PAN03/11H·KAU08/11A·BE108/03H·BAB16/03A·NEP29/03H·TAU04/04A·NEV18/04H·ATM26/04A·EKR04/05
Avg total
4.0
Avg scored
2.3
Avg conceded
1.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.702.102.002.291.311.85
vs Stronger (13)1.921.922.291.861.502.00
vs Similar (10)1.202.601.333.001.002.00
vs Weaker (7)2.001.712.502.001.331.33
Clean sheet %10% (-16pp vs league)
This opponent (BFA) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

BFABFA

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-431W01L20W10W20W21W13L22D40W10WA·FA 03/11H·TAU08/11A·EKR09/03A·JON15/03H·KAU28/03A·HEG04/04A·NEV11/04H·PAN18/04A·FA 27/04H·MIN03/05
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.8
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.671.502.001.461.411.53
vs Stronger (11)1.002.001.251.750.862.14
vs Similar (11)2.271.362.331.672.201.00
vs Weaker (8)1.751.002.330.671.401.20
Clean sheet %23% (-3pp vs league)
This opponent (Žalgiris II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%11%17%22%5%011%122%222%318%411%510%6+
The model estimates around 3.1 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
83.1%
Under 1.5
16.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
60.8%
Under 2.5
39.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
38.4%
Under 3.5
61.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
62.7%
No
37.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.5%
1-2
9.4%
2-1
7.0%
0-2
7.0%
0-1
6.7%
2-2
6.3%
1-3
5.6%
0-0
5.4%
Žalgiris II goals ↓
BFA goals →
01234
05.4%6.7%7.0%4.2%1.9%
14.8%11%9.4%5.6%2.5%
23.9%7.0%6.3%3.8%1.7%
31.8%3.2%2.8%1.7%0.8%
40.6%1.1%1.0%0.6%0.3%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Žalgiris II goals (down), columns = BFA goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
TransINVEST Vilnius
2.63
Neptūną Klaipėda
2.23
Tauras
2.07
Babrungas
1.93
BFA
1.83
Atmosfera
1.60
Jonava
1.40
Žalgiris II
1.40
Minija
1.20
Hegelmann II
1.03
Be1 NFA
1.00
Ekranas
0.97
FA Šiauliai II
0.94
Kauno Žalgiris II
0.90
Nevėžis
0.87
Panevėžys II
0.70
Sveikata
0.50
Žalgiris II is 0.43 points worse than BFA in terms of average points per game (1.40 vs 1.83).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
TransINVEST Vilnius
2.90
Neptūną Klaipėda
2.27
Babrungas
2.13
Tauras
1.87
Atmosfera
1.73
Žalgiris II
1.67
BFA
1.57
FA Šiauliai II
1.50
Kauno Žalgiris II
1.43
Ekranas
1.23
Be1 NFA
1.17
Hegelmann II
1.17
Nevėžis
1.07
Sveikata
1.00
Panevėžys II
1.00
Minija
0.90
Jonava
0.87
Žalgiris II is 0.10 goals better than BFA in terms of goals scored per game (1.67 vs 1.57).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
TransINVEST Vilnius
0.73
Tauras
0.73
Jonava
0.83
Neptūną Klaipėda
0.90
Atmosfera
1.13
BFA
1.20
Babrungas
1.43
Minija
1.53
Žalgiris II
1.60
Be1 NFA
1.70
Hegelmann II
1.70
Kauno Žalgiris II
1.90
Ekranas
1.93
Nevėžis
1.93
FA Šiauliai II
2.28
Panevėžys II
2.70
Sveikata
3.50
Žalgiris II is 0.40 goals worse than BFA in terms of goals conceded per game (1.60 vs 1.20).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Žalgiris IIŽalgiris II

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-330W01L31W00D01L02L00D10W11D10WA·JON31/10H·PAN03/11H·KAU08/11A·BE108/03H·BAB16/03A·NEP29/03H·TAU04/04A·NEV18/04H·ATM26/04A·EKR04/05
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.600.930.760.880.381.00
vs Stronger (13)0.460.920.711.000.170.83
vs Similar (10)0.701.100.671.000.751.25
vs Weaker (7)0.710.711.000.500.331.00
Clean sheet %37% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (BFA) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

BFABFA

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-411D00D00D10W10W20W00D10W40W00DA·FA 03/11H·TAU08/11A·EKR09/03A·JON15/03H·KAU28/03A·HEG04/04A·NEV11/04H·PAN18/04A·FA 27/04H·MIN03/05
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.1
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.770.530.770.310.760.71
vs Stronger (11)0.550.730.750.750.430.71
vs Similar (11)1.180.270.830.001.600.60
vs Weaker (8)0.500.620.670.330.400.80
Clean sheet %53% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Žalgiris II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Žalgiris II over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Žalgiris II over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Žalgiris II over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
BFA over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
BFA over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
BFA over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

Žalgiris IIŽalgiris II

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-410W43W22D11D21W00D02L31W10W01LA·JON31/10H·PAN03/11H·KAU08/11A·BE108/03H·BAB16/03A·NEP29/03H·TAU04/04A·NEV18/04H·ATM26/04A·EKR04/05
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.1
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.101.171.241.410.920.85
vs Stronger (13)1.461.001.570.861.331.17
vs Similar (10)0.501.500.672.000.250.75
vs Weaker (7)1.291.001.501.501.000.33
Clean sheet %33% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (BFA) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

BFABFA

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-320W01L20W00D10W01L13L12L00D10WA·FA 03/11H·TAU08/11A·EKR09/03A·JON15/03H·KAU28/03A·HEG04/04A·NEV11/04H·PAN18/04A·FA 27/04H·MIN03/05
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.900.971.231.150.650.82
vs Stronger (11)0.451.270.501.000.431.43
vs Similar (11)1.091.091.501.670.600.40
vs Weaker (8)1.250.381.670.331.000.40
Clean sheet %40% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Žalgiris II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Žalgiris II over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Žalgiris II over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Žalgiris II over/under 2.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
BFA over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
BFA over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
BFA over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.583.1%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TV (24)
€5m
ŽI (6)
€1m
HI (4)
€0m
MIN (3)
€0m
FŠI (4)
€0m
TAU (2)
€0m
NK (1)
€0m
BFA (2)
€0m
KŽI (1)
€0m
EKR (1)
€0m
ATM (1)
€0m
Žalgiris II and BFA have a similar squad value (both €1m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TV (8)
€2m
TAU (1)
€0m
NK (1)
€0m
MIN (1)
€0m
ŽI (2)
€0m
HI (1)
€0m
FŠI (1)
€0m
BFA (1)
€0m
EKR (0)
€0m
ATM (0)
€0m
KŽI (0)
€0m
Žalgiris II and BFA have a similar attack value (both €0m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TV (5)
€1m
FŠI (2)
€0m
MIN (1)
€0m
ŽI (1)
€0m
BFA (1)
€0m
HI (1)
€0m
EKR (1)
€0m
ATM (1)
€0m
TAU (0)
€0m
NK (0)
€0m
KŽI (0)
€0m
Žalgiris II and BFA have a similar midfield value (both €0m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TV (11)
€2m
ŽI (3)
€0m
HI (2)
€0m
TAU (1)
€0m
MIN (1)
€0m
FŠI (1)
€0m
KŽI (1)
€0m
EKR (0)
€0m
NK (0)
€0m
ATM (0)
€0m
BFA (0)
€0m
Žalgiris II and BFA have a similar defence value (both €0m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

4 previous meetings
0
ŽI wins
2
Draws
2
BFA wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Žalgiris II vs BFA · H/A from ŽI
DateH/AGameScore
07/08/23HŽI Vs BFA1-6
18/03/23ABFA Vs ŽI0-0
12/11/22HŽI Vs BFA1-1
06/07/22ABFA Vs ŽI4-2

Žalgiris IIŽalgiris II

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
04/05/25AEkranas Vs ŽI1-1
26/04/25HŽI Vs Atmosfera2-1
18/04/25ANevėžis Vs ŽI1-4
04/04/25HŽI Vs Tauras0-2
29/03/25ANeptūną Klaipėda Vs ŽI2-0
16/03/25HŽI Vs Babrungas2-2
08/03/25ABe1 NFA Vs ŽI1-1
08/11/23HŽI Vs Kauno Žalgiris II5-3
03/11/23HŽI Vs Panevėžys II4-4
31/10/23AJonava Vs ŽI0-4

BFABFA

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
03/05/25HBFA Vs Minija1-0
27/04/25AFA Šiauliai II Vs BFA0-4
18/04/25HBFA Vs Panevėžys II2-2
11/04/25ANevėžis Vs BFA3-1
04/04/25AHegelmann II Vs BFA1-2
28/03/25HBFA Vs Kauno Žalgiris II2-0
15/03/25AJonava Vs BFA0-1
09/03/25AEkranas Vs BFA0-2
08/11/24HBFA Vs Tauras0-1
03/11/24AFA Šiauliai II Vs BFA1-3

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Žalgiris II
Žalgiris II
Lithuania: 1 Lyga
Recent: 4 Wins / 4 Draws / 2 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLLWWD1.10
HomeDWDLW1.12
AwayWDLWD1.08
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %28%29%27%
AVG goals3.484.292.73
Over 1.5 %86%92%81%
Over 2.5 %64%79%50%
Over 3.5 %46%62%31%
Scored1.581.961.23
Conceded1.902.331.50
BTTS58%75%42%
Clean Sheet14%12%15%
Corners---
Cards---
BFA
BFA
Lithuania: 1 Lyga
Recent: 7 Wins / 1 Draws / 2 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWLDWW1.48
HomeLLWDW1.57
AwayWWWLW1.41
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %40%43%37%
AVG goals3.103.133.07
Over 1.5 %82%78%85%
Over 2.5 %56%48%63%
Over 3.5 %46%43%48%
Scored1.621.741.52
Conceded1.481.391.56
BTTS50%43%56%
Clean Sheet28%30%26%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1TransINVEST VilniusTransINVEST Vilnius3079
87%
2.6
8722+65
3.6
90%
77%
47%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
2122.90.7
-
2Neptūną KlaipėdaNeptūną Klaipėda3067
70%
2.2
6827+41
3.2
80%
57%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.30.9
-
3TaurasTauras3062
60%
2.1
5622+34
2.6
73%
50%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.90.7
-
4BabrungasBabrungas3058
57%
1.9
6443+21
3.6
83%
67%
43%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.11.4
-
5BFABFA3055
53%
1.8
4736+11
2.8
70%
53%
37%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.61.2
-
6AtmosferaAtmosfera3048
47%
1.6
5234+18
2.9
70%
53%
37%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.71.1
-
7Žalgiris IIŽalgiris II3042
37%
1.4
5048+2
3.3
83%
57%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.71.6
-
8JonavaJonava3042
37%
1.4
2625+1
1.7
57%
23%
7%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.90.8
-
9MinijaMinija3036
37%
1.2
2746-19
2.4
67%
47%
23%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.91.5
-
10Hegelmann IIHegelmann II3031
27%
1.0
3551-16
2.9
80%
50%
27%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.21.7
-
11Be1 NFABe1 NFA3030
27%
1.0
3551-16
2.9
80%
63%
37%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.21.7
-
12FA Šiauliai IIFA Šiauliai II3230
28%
0.9
4873-25
3.8
91%
78%
59%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.52.3
-
13EkranasEkranas3029
30%
1.0
3758-21
3.2
83%
60%
43%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.21.9
-
14Kauno Žalgiris IIKauno Žalgiris II3027
27%
0.9
4357-14
3.3
83%
63%
43%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.41.9
-
15NevėžisNevėžis3026
23%
0.9
3258-26
3.0
73%
57%
43%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.11.9
-
16Panevėžys IIPanevėžys II3021
20%
0.7
3081-51
3.7
90%
67%
43%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.02.7
-
17SveikataSveikata21
0%
0.5
27-5
4.5
100%
100%
100%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.03.5
-
Lithuania: 1 Lyga 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Lithuania: 1 Lyga stats & trends →

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