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Žalgiris II vs Garliava Result & Analysis

Date: 28/10/2023
Time: 17:00
Final 1-1
Žalgiris II
Žalgiris II
Vs
29%
22%
49%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Garliava
Garliava
Lithuania: 1 Lyga
Referee: -

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Žalgiris II win✗ Miss
28.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✓ Hit
22.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Garliava win✗ Miss
49.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

Žalgiris IIŽalgiris II

Last 10 – goals for & against
60-616L21W60W01L14L14L11D23L22D03LH·BFA07/08H·BAB12/08H·ŠIL21/08H·BE128/08A·NEV31/08H·NEP16/09A·TRA09/10H·MIN15/10H·TRA18/10A·FA 23/10
Avg total
4.1
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
2.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.272.001.692.380.941.71
vs Stronger (14)1.292.001.831.830.882.12
vs Similar (11)0.822.271.502.830.001.60
vs Weaker (5)2.201.402.003.002.251.00
Clean sheet %17% (-9pp vs league)
This opponent (Garliava) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

GarliavaGarliava

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-303L11D01L12L11D11D20W33D00D10WH·BE112/08A·NEV18/08H·NEP25/08A·JON01/09H·TRA16/09A·TRA23/09H·MIN30/09A·FA 07/10H·KAU13/10H·PAN20/10
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.2
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.331.231.001.061.711.43
vs Stronger (27)1.411.261.071.131.831.42
vs Similar (3)0.671.000.000.001.001.50
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %27% (+1pp vs league)
This opponent (Žalgiris II) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

5%10%15%20%3%07%117%220%319%415%519%6+
The model estimates around 3.8 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (20%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
90.4%
Under 1.5
9.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
73.7%
Under 2.5
26.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
53.4%
Under 3.5
46.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
72.5%
No
27.5%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1 ✓
8.6%
1-2
8.5%
2-2
7.0%
2-1
6.4%
1-3
6.2%
0-2
5.1%
2-3
5.1%
0-1
3.9%
Žalgiris II goals ↓
Garliava goals →
01234
02.9%3.9%5.1%3.8%2.1%
12.8%8.6%8.5%6.2%3.4%
22.9%6.4%7.0%5.1%2.8%
31.6%3.5%3.9%2.8%1.5%
40.7%1.5%1.6%1.2%0.6%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Žalgiris II goals (down), columns = Garliava goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
TransINVEST Vilnius
2.31
Be1 NFA
1.83
Babrungas
1.70
Minija
1.66
Neptūną Klaipėda
1.66
Nevėžis
1.66
Šilas
1.52
Trakai II
1.48
Garliava
1.33
Ekranas
1.30
BFA
1.27
FA Šiauliai II
1.10
Kauno Žalgiris II
1.07
Panevėžys II
1.03
Žalgiris II
0.93
Jonava
0.41
Žalgiris II is 0.40 points worse than Garliava in terms of average points per game (0.93 vs 1.33).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
TransINVEST Vilnius
2.76
Babrungas
2.00
Neptūną Klaipėda
1.86
Be1 NFA
1.66
Trakai II
1.59
FA Šiauliai II
1.57
Žalgiris II
1.53
Nevėžis
1.52
Panevėžys II
1.50
Minija
1.45
Garliava
1.43
Ekranas
1.40
BFA
1.33
Kauno Žalgiris II
1.33
Šilas
1.17
Jonava
0.86
Žalgiris II is 0.10 goals better than Garliava in terms of goals scored per game (1.53 vs 1.43).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
TransINVEST Vilnius
1.00
Be1 NFA
1.03
Nevėžis
1.10
Neptūną Klaipėda
1.14
Trakai II
1.14
Garliava
1.23
Minija
1.28
BFA
1.37
Ekranas
1.63
Kauno Žalgiris II
1.63
Babrungas
1.63
Šilas
1.87
Panevėžys II
1.97
Žalgiris II
2.20
FA Šiauliai II
2.20
Jonava
2.62
Žalgiris II is 0.97 goals worse than Garliava in terms of goals conceded per game (2.20 vs 1.23).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Žalgiris IIŽalgiris II

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-312L11D30W00D02L10W01L02L12L02LH·BFA07/08H·BAB12/08H·ŠIL21/08H·BE128/08A·NEV31/08H·NEP16/09A·TRA09/10H·MIN15/10H·TRA18/10A·FA 23/10
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.2
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.401.030.771.080.121.00
vs Stronger (14)0.431.210.831.170.121.25
vs Similar (11)0.451.000.831.170.000.80
vs Weaker (5)0.200.600.000.000.250.75
Clean sheet %33% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (Garliava) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

GarliavaGarliava

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
10-101L11D01L11D01L10W00D11D00D10WH·BE112/08A·NEV18/08H·NEP25/08A·JON01/09H·TRA16/09A·TRA23/09H·MIN30/09A·FA 07/10H·KAU13/10H·PAN20/10
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.630.430.500.310.790.57
vs Stronger (27)0.670.440.530.330.830.58
vs Similar (3)0.330.330.000.000.500.50
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %63% (+37pp vs league)
This opponent (Žalgiris II) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Žalgiris II over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Žalgiris II over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Žalgiris II over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Garliava over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Garliava over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Garliava over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

Žalgiris IIŽalgiris II

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-404L10W30W01L12L04L10W21W10W01LH·BFA07/08H·BAB12/08H·ŠIL21/08H·BE128/08A·NEV31/08H·NEP16/09A·TRA09/10H·MIN15/10H·TRA18/10A·FA 23/10
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.3
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.870.970.921.310.820.71
vs Stronger (14)0.860.791.000.670.750.88
vs Similar (11)0.361.270.671.670.000.80
vs Weaker (5)2.000.802.003.002.000.25
Clean sheet %47% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Garliava) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

GarliavaGarliava

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-202L00D00D01L10W01L20W22D00D00DH·BE112/08A·NEV18/08H·NEP25/08A·JON01/09H·TRA16/09A·TRA23/09H·MIN30/09A·FA 07/10H·KAU13/10H·PAN20/10
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.700.800.500.750.930.86
vs Stronger (27)0.740.810.530.801.000.83
vs Similar (3)0.330.670.000.000.501.00
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %47% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Žalgiris II) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Žalgiris II over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Žalgiris II over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Žalgiris II over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Garliava over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Garliava over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Garliava over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.590.4%-------✓ Hit
Over 2.573.7%-------✗ Miss
BTTS Yes72.5%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TV (24)
€5m
ŽI (6)
€1m
MIN (3)
€0m
FŠI (4)
€0m
NK (1)
€0m
BFA (2)
€0m
GAR (1)
€0m
KŽI (1)
€0m
EKR (1)
€0m
Žalgiris II and Garliava have a similar squad value (both €1m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TV (8)
€2m
NK (1)
€0m
MIN (1)
€0m
ŽI (2)
€0m
GAR (1)
€0m
FŠI (1)
€0m
BFA (1)
€0m
EKR (0)
€0m
KŽI (0)
€0m
Žalgiris II and Garliava have a similar attack value (both €0m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TV (5)
€1m
FŠI (2)
€0m
MIN (1)
€0m
ŽI (1)
€0m
BFA (1)
€0m
EKR (1)
€0m
GAR (0)
€0m
NK (0)
€0m
KŽI (0)
€0m
Žalgiris II and Garliava have a similar midfield value (both €0m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TV (11)
€2m
ŽI (3)
€0m
MIN (1)
€0m
FŠI (1)
€0m
KŽI (1)
€0m
GAR (0)
€0m
EKR (0)
€0m
NK (0)
€0m
BFA (0)
€0m
Žalgiris II and Garliava have a similar defence value (both €0m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

3 previous meetings
2
ŽI wins
0
Draws
1
GAR wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Žalgiris II vs Garliava · H/A from ŽI
DateH/AGameScore
10/06/23AGarliava Vs ŽI1-0
22/10/22HŽI Vs Garliava1-0
17/06/22AGarliava Vs ŽI1-3

Žalgiris IIŽalgiris II

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
23/10/23AFA Šiauliai II Vs ŽI3-0
18/10/23HŽI Vs TransINVEST Vilnius2-2
15/10/23HŽI Vs Minija2-3
09/10/23ATrakai II Vs ŽI1-1
16/09/23HŽI Vs Neptūną Klaipėda1-4
31/08/23ANevėžis Vs ŽI4-1
28/08/23HŽI Vs Be1 NFA0-1
21/08/23HŽI Vs Šilas6-0
12/08/23HŽI Vs Babrungas2-1
07/08/23HŽI Vs BFA1-6

GarliavaGarliava

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
20/10/23HGAR Vs Panevėžys II1-0
13/10/23HGAR Vs Kauno Žalgiris II0-0
07/10/23AFA Šiauliai II Vs GAR3-3
30/09/23HGAR Vs Minija2-0
23/09/23ATrakai II Vs GAR1-1
16/09/23HGAR Vs TransINVEST Vilnius1-1
01/09/23AJonava Vs GAR2-1
25/08/23HGAR Vs Neptūną Klaipėda0-1
18/08/23ANevėžis Vs GAR1-1
12/08/23HGAR Vs Be1 NFA0-3

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Žalgiris II
Žalgiris II
Lithuania: 1 Lyga
Recent: 2 Wins / 2 Draws / 6 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLDLDL0.98
HomeWLLLD0.91
AwayDWLDL1.04
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %26%26%26%
AVG goals3.483.873.15
Over 1.5 %84%87%81%
Over 2.5 %70%78%63%
Over 3.5 %48%57%41%
Scored1.421.571.30
Conceded2.062.301.85
BTTS56%65%48%
Clean Sheet16%17%15%
Corners---
Cards---
Garliava
Garliava
Lithuania: 1 Lyga
Recent: 2 Wins / 5 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDWDDW1.26
HomeLDWDW1.28
AwayWDLDD1.24
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %30%32%28%
AVG goals2.762.323.20
Over 1.5 %76%72%80%
Over 2.5 %46%36%56%
Over 3.5 %28%16%40%
Scored1.301.081.52
Conceded1.461.241.68
BTTS54%44%64%
Clean Sheet26%32%20%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1TransINVEST VilniusTransINVEST Vilnius2967
72%
2.3
8029+51
3.8
90%
79%
48%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
2122.81.0
-
2Be1 NFABe1 NFA2953
55%
1.8
4830+18
2.7
76%
52%
24%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.71.0
-
3BabrungasBabrungas3051
50%
1.7
6049+11
3.6
93%
67%
43%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.01.6
-
4Neptūną KlaipėdaNeptūną Klaipėda2948
45%
1.7
5433+21
3.0
76%
55%
41%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.91.1
-
5NevėžisNevėžis2948
45%
1.7
4432+12
2.6
72%
52%
31%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.51.1
-
6MinijaMinija2948
48%
1.7
4237+5
2.7
83%
59%
21%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.41.3
-
7Trakai IITrakai II2943
41%
1.5
4633+13
2.7
83%
55%
24%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.61.1
-
8GarliavaGarliava3040
30%
1.3
4337+6
2.7
80%
43%
23%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.41.2
-
9EkranasEkranas3039
37%
1.3
4249-7
3.0
77%
57%
37%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.41.6
-
10BFABFA3038
33%
1.3
4041-1
2.7
80%
47%
27%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.31.4
-
11ŠilasŠilas2335
48%
1.5
2743-16
3.0
78%
57%
39%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.21.9
-
12FA Šiauliai IIFA Šiauliai II3033
30%
1.1
4766-19
3.8
90%
77%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.62.2
-
13Kauno Žalgiris IIKauno Žalgiris II3032
27%
1.1
4049-9
3.0
73%
53%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.31.6
-
14Panevėžys IIPanevėžys II3031
27%
1.0
4559-14
3.5
83%
70%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.52.0
-
15Žalgiris IIŽalgiris II3028
23%
0.9
4666-20
3.7
90%
73%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.52.2
-
16JonavaJonava2912
10%
0.4
2576-51
3.5
93%
72%
41%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.92.6
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Lithuania: 1 Lyga 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Lithuania: 1 Lyga stats & trends →

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