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Žalgiris II vs Minija Result & Analysis

Date: 15/10/2023
Time: 10:00
Final 2-3
Žalgiris II
Žalgiris II
Vs
42%
25%
33%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Minija
Minija
Lithuania: 1 Lyga
Referee: -

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Žalgiris II win✗ Miss
42.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
25.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Minija win✓ Hit
32.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

Žalgiris IIŽalgiris II

Last 10 – goals for & against
60-622D32W23L16L21W60W01L14L14L11DA·PAN23/06A·KAU26/06H·EKR28/07H·BFA07/08H·BAB12/08H·ŠIL21/08H·BE128/08A·NEV31/08H·NEP16/09A·TRA09/10
Avg total
4.3
Avg scored
1.9
Avg conceded
2.4
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.271.831.692.150.941.59
vs Stronger (14)1.141.931.801.800.782.00
vs Similar (10)1.002.101.672.670.001.25
vs Weaker (6)2.001.171.501.502.251.00
Clean sheet %20% (-6pp vs league)
This opponent (Minija) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

MinijaMinija

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-421W12L20W21W10W03L30W21W02L41WH·BE129/07A·NEV04/08H·NEP12/08A·JON19/08H·TRA26/08A·TRA31/08H·KAU15/09H·FA 23/09A·GAR30/09H·PAN07/10
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
1.1
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.431.071.820.650.921.62
vs Stronger (14)1.431.431.861.001.001.86
vs Similar (10)1.600.301.860.291.000.33
vs Weaker (6)1.171.501.670.670.672.33
Clean sheet %37% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Žalgiris II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%11%17%22%5%011%122%222%318%412%511%6+
The model estimates around 3.2 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
84.2%
Under 1.5
15.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
62.5%
Under 2.5
37.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
40.3%
Under 3.5
59.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
64.9%
No
35.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.3%
2-1
8.9%
1-2
7.7%
2-2
6.7%
2-0
5.9%
1-0
5.8%
3-1
5.1%
0-0
5.0%
Žalgiris II goals ↓
Minija goals →
01234
05.0%4.9%4.5%2.2%0.8%
15.8%11%7.7%3.9%1.4%
25.9%8.9%6.7%3.3%1.2%
33.4%5.1%3.8%1.9%0.7%
41.5%2.2%1.7%0.8%0.3%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Žalgiris II goals (down), columns = Minija goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
TransINVEST Vilnius
2.31
Be1 NFA
1.83
Babrungas
1.70
Minija
1.66
Neptūną Klaipėda
1.66
Nevėžis
1.66
Šilas
1.52
Trakai II
1.48
Garliava
1.33
Ekranas
1.30
BFA
1.27
FA Šiauliai II
1.10
Kauno Žalgiris II
1.07
Panevėžys II
1.03
Žalgiris II
0.93
Jonava
0.41
Žalgiris II is 0.72 points worse than Minija in terms of average points per game (0.93 vs 1.66).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
TransINVEST Vilnius
2.76
Babrungas
2.00
Neptūną Klaipėda
1.86
Be1 NFA
1.66
Trakai II
1.59
FA Šiauliai II
1.57
Žalgiris II
1.53
Nevėžis
1.52
Panevėžys II
1.50
Minija
1.45
Garliava
1.43
Ekranas
1.40
BFA
1.33
Kauno Žalgiris II
1.33
Šilas
1.17
Jonava
0.86
Žalgiris II is 0.09 goals better than Minija in terms of goals scored per game (1.53 vs 1.45).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
TransINVEST Vilnius
1.00
Be1 NFA
1.03
Nevėžis
1.10
Neptūną Klaipėda
1.14
Trakai II
1.14
Garliava
1.23
Minija
1.28
BFA
1.37
Ekranas
1.63
Kauno Žalgiris II
1.63
Babrungas
1.63
Šilas
1.87
Panevėžys II
1.97
Žalgiris II
2.20
FA Šiauliai II
2.20
Jonava
2.62
Žalgiris II is 0.92 goals worse than Minija in terms of goals conceded per game (2.20 vs 1.28).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Žalgiris IIŽalgiris II

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-301L02L00D12L11D30W00D02L10W01LA·PAN23/06A·KAU26/06H·EKR28/07H·BFA07/08H·BAB12/08H·ŠIL21/08H·BE128/08A·NEV31/08H·NEP16/09A·TRA09/10
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.430.870.850.850.120.88
vs Stronger (14)0.361.070.801.000.111.11
vs Similar (10)0.700.801.171.000.000.50
vs Weaker (6)0.170.500.000.000.250.75
Clean sheet %40% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Minija) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

MinijaMinija

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-220W00D10W20W10W02L20W20W00D10WH·BE129/07A·NEV04/08H·NEP12/08A·JON19/08H·TRA26/08A·TRA31/08H·KAU15/09H·FA 23/09A·GAR30/09H·PAN07/10
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.2
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.630.470.820.240.380.77
vs Stronger (14)0.570.640.710.290.431.00
vs Similar (10)0.900.101.000.140.670.00
vs Weaker (6)0.330.670.670.330.001.00
Clean sheet %67% (+41pp vs league)
This opponent (Žalgiris II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Žalgiris II over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Žalgiris II over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Žalgiris II over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Minija over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Minija over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Minija over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

Žalgiris IIŽalgiris II

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-421W30W23L04L10W30W01L12L04L10WA·PAN23/06A·KAU26/06H·EKR28/07H·BFA07/08H·BAB12/08H·ŠIL21/08H·BE128/08A·NEV31/08H·NEP16/09A·TRA09/10
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.830.970.851.310.820.71
vs Stronger (14)0.790.861.000.800.670.89
vs Similar (10)0.301.300.501.670.000.75
vs Weaker (6)1.830.671.501.502.000.25
Clean sheet %47% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Minija) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

MinijaMinija

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-301L12L10W01L00D01L10W01L02L31WH·BE129/07A·NEV04/08H·NEP12/08A·JON19/08H·TRA26/08A·TRA31/08H·KAU15/09H·FA 23/09A·GAR30/09H·PAN07/10
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.800.601.000.410.540.85
vs Stronger (14)0.860.791.140.710.570.86
vs Similar (10)0.700.200.860.140.330.33
vs Weaker (6)0.830.831.000.330.671.33
Clean sheet %53% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Žalgiris II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Žalgiris II over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Žalgiris II over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Žalgiris II over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Minija over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Minija over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Minija over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.584.2%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TV (24)
€5m
ŽI (6)
€1m
MIN (3)
€0m
FŠI (4)
€0m
NK (1)
€0m
BFA (2)
€0m
GAR (1)
€0m
KŽI (1)
€0m
EKR (1)
€0m
Žalgiris II and Minija have a similar squad value (both €1m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TV (8)
€2m
NK (1)
€0m
MIN (1)
€0m
ŽI (2)
€0m
GAR (1)
€0m
FŠI (1)
€0m
BFA (1)
€0m
EKR (0)
€0m
KŽI (0)
€0m
Žalgiris II and Minija have a similar attack value (both €0m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TV (5)
€1m
FŠI (2)
€0m
MIN (1)
€0m
ŽI (1)
€0m
BFA (1)
€0m
EKR (1)
€0m
GAR (0)
€0m
NK (0)
€0m
KŽI (0)
€0m
Žalgiris II and Minija have a similar midfield value (both €0m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TV (11)
€2m
ŽI (3)
€0m
MIN (1)
€0m
FŠI (1)
€0m
KŽI (1)
€0m
GAR (0)
€0m
EKR (0)
€0m
NK (0)
€0m
BFA (0)
€0m
Žalgiris II and Minija have a similar defence value (both €0m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

3 previous meetings
0
ŽI wins
1
Draws
2
MIN wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Žalgiris II vs Minija · H/A from ŽI
DateH/AGameScore
27/05/23AMinija Vs ŽI3-0
05/08/22HŽI Vs Minija1-3
26/03/22AMinija Vs ŽI0-0

Žalgiris IIŽalgiris II

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
09/10/23ATrakai II Vs ŽI1-1
16/09/23HŽI Vs Neptūną Klaipėda1-4
31/08/23ANevėžis Vs ŽI4-1
28/08/23HŽI Vs Be1 NFA0-1
21/08/23HŽI Vs Šilas6-0
12/08/23HŽI Vs Babrungas2-1
07/08/23HŽI Vs BFA1-6
28/07/23HŽI Vs Ekranas2-3
26/06/23AKauno Žalgiris II Vs ŽI2-3
23/06/23APanevėžys II Vs ŽI2-2

MinijaMinija

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
07/10/23HMIN Vs Panevėžys II4-1
30/09/23AGarliava Vs MIN2-0
23/09/23HMIN Vs FA Šiauliai II2-1
15/09/23HMIN Vs Kauno Žalgiris II3-0
31/08/23ATrakai II Vs MIN3-0
26/08/23HMIN Vs TransINVEST Vilnius1-0
19/08/23AJonava Vs MIN1-2
12/08/23HMIN Vs Neptūną Klaipėda2-0
04/08/23ANevėžis Vs MIN2-1
29/07/23HMIN Vs Be1 NFA2-1

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Žalgiris II
Žalgiris II
Lithuania: 1 Lyga
Recent: 3 Wins / 2 Draws / 5 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWLLLD1.06
HomeLWWLL1.04
AwayLDWLD1.07
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %28%30%26%
AVG goals3.343.613.11
Over 1.5 %82%83%81%
Over 2.5 %66%74%59%
Over 3.5 %44%48%41%
Scored1.421.521.33
Conceded1.922.091.78
BTTS54%57%52%
Clean Sheet20%26%15%
Corners---
Cards---
Minija
Minija
Lithuania: 1 Lyga
Recent: 7 Wins / 0 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLWWLW1.52
HomeWWWWW2.08
AwayDLWLL0.92
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %44%62%25%
AVG goals2.542.272.83
Over 1.5 %78%69%88%
Over 2.5 %50%42%58%
Over 3.5 %18%12%25%
Scored1.281.580.96
Conceded1.260.691.88
BTTS50%46%54%
Clean Sheet28%42%12%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1TransINVEST VilniusTransINVEST Vilnius2967
72%
2.3
8029+51
3.8
90%
79%
48%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
2122.81.0
-
2Be1 NFABe1 NFA2953
55%
1.8
4830+18
2.7
76%
52%
24%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.71.0
-
3BabrungasBabrungas3051
50%
1.7
6049+11
3.6
93%
67%
43%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.01.6
-
4Neptūną KlaipėdaNeptūną Klaipėda2948
45%
1.7
5433+21
3.0
76%
55%
41%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.91.1
-
5NevėžisNevėžis2948
45%
1.7
4432+12
2.6
72%
52%
31%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.51.1
-
6MinijaMinija2948
48%
1.7
4237+5
2.7
83%
59%
21%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.41.3
-
7Trakai IITrakai II2943
41%
1.5
4633+13
2.7
83%
55%
24%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.61.1
-
8GarliavaGarliava3040
30%
1.3
4337+6
2.7
80%
43%
23%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.41.2
-
9EkranasEkranas3039
37%
1.3
4249-7
3.0
77%
57%
37%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.41.6
-
10BFABFA3038
33%
1.3
4041-1
2.7
80%
47%
27%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.31.4
-
11ŠilasŠilas2335
48%
1.5
2743-16
3.0
78%
57%
39%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.21.9
-
12FA Šiauliai IIFA Šiauliai II3033
30%
1.1
4766-19
3.8
90%
77%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.62.2
-
13Kauno Žalgiris IIKauno Žalgiris II3032
27%
1.1
4049-9
3.0
73%
53%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.31.6
-
14Panevėžys IIPanevėžys II3031
27%
1.0
4559-14
3.5
83%
70%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.52.0
-
15Žalgiris IIŽalgiris II3028
23%
0.9
4666-20
3.7
90%
73%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.52.2
-
16JonavaJonava2912
10%
0.4
2576-51
3.5
93%
72%
41%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.92.6
-
Lithuania: 1 Lyga 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Lithuania: 1 Lyga stats & trends →

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