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Žalgiris II vs Neptūną Klaipėda Result & Analysis

Date: 16/09/2023
Time: 12:00
Final 1-4
Žalgiris II
Žalgiris II
Vs
32%
24%
43%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Neptūną Klaipėda
Neptūną Klaipėda
Lithuania: 1 Lyga
Referee: -

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Žalgiris II win✗ Miss
32.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
24.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Neptūną Klaipėda win✓ Hit
43.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

Žalgiris IIŽalgiris II

Last 10 – goals for & against
60-630W01L22D32W23L16L21W60W01L14LH·FA 05/06A·GAR10/06A·PAN23/06A·KAU26/06H·EKR28/07H·BFA07/08H·BAB12/08H·ŠIL21/08H·BE128/08A·NEV31/08
Avg total
4.0
Avg scored
2.0
Avg conceded
2.0
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.271.831.772.080.881.65
vs Stronger (15)1.132.071.832.000.672.11
vs Similar (9)1.001.891.802.400.001.25
vs Weaker (6)2.001.171.501.502.251.00
Clean sheet %20% (-6pp vs league)
This opponent (Neptūną Klaipėda) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Neptūną KlaipėdaNeptūną Klaipėda

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-511D00D50W20W13L12L02L30W10W22DA·BE103/06H·NEV09/06H·KAU23/06H·JON30/06A·TRA29/07H·TRA06/08A·MIN12/08H·FA 20/08A·GAR25/08H·PAN06/09
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.831.071.940.751.711.43
vs Stronger (11)2.091.551.401.002.672.00
vs Similar (12)1.250.671.750.380.251.25
vs Weaker (7)2.431.003.331.331.750.75
Clean sheet %37% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Žalgiris II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

5%11%16%22%4%09%120%222%319%413%513%6+
The model estimates around 3.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
86.6%
Under 1.5
13.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
66.6%
Under 2.5
33.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
44.8%
Under 3.5
55.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
67.9%
No
32.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
10.4%
1-2
8.8%
2-1
7.5%
2-2
6.9%
0-2
5.5%
1-3
5.4%
0-1
5.0%
2-3
4.3%
Žalgiris II goals ↓
Neptūną Klaipėda goals →
01234
04.2%5.0%5.5%3.4%1.6%
14.2%10%8.8%5.4%2.5%
24.0%7.5%6.9%4.3%2.0%
32.1%3.9%3.6%2.2%1.0%
40.8%1.6%1.4%0.9%0.4%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Žalgiris II goals (down), columns = Neptūną Klaipėda goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
TransINVEST Vilnius
2.31
Be1 NFA
1.83
Babrungas
1.70
Minija
1.66
Neptūną Klaipėda
1.66
Nevėžis
1.66
Šilas
1.52
Trakai II
1.48
Garliava
1.33
Ekranas
1.30
BFA
1.27
FA Šiauliai II
1.10
Kauno Žalgiris II
1.07
Panevėžys II
1.03
Žalgiris II
0.93
Jonava
0.41
Žalgiris II is 0.72 points worse than Neptūną Klaipėda in terms of average points per game (0.93 vs 1.66).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
TransINVEST Vilnius
2.76
Babrungas
2.00
Neptūną Klaipėda
1.86
Be1 NFA
1.66
Trakai II
1.59
FA Šiauliai II
1.57
Žalgiris II
1.53
Nevėžis
1.52
Panevėžys II
1.50
Minija
1.45
Garliava
1.43
Ekranas
1.40
BFA
1.33
Kauno Žalgiris II
1.33
Šilas
1.17
Jonava
0.86
Žalgiris II is 0.33 goals worse than Neptūną Klaipėda in terms of goals scored per game (1.53 vs 1.86).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
TransINVEST Vilnius
1.00
Be1 NFA
1.03
Nevėžis
1.10
Neptūną Klaipėda
1.14
Trakai II
1.14
Garliava
1.23
Minija
1.28
BFA
1.37
Ekranas
1.63
Kauno Žalgiris II
1.63
Babrungas
1.63
Šilas
1.87
Panevėžys II
1.97
Žalgiris II
2.20
FA Šiauliai II
2.20
Jonava
2.62
Žalgiris II is 1.06 goals worse than Neptūną Klaipėda in terms of goals conceded per game (2.20 vs 1.14).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Žalgiris IIŽalgiris II

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-320W01L01L02L00D12L11D30W00D02LH·FA 05/06A·GAR10/06A·PAN23/06A·KAU26/06H·EKR28/07H·BFA07/08H·BAB12/08H·ŠIL21/08H·BE128/08A·NEV31/08
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.400.900.770.920.120.88
vs Stronger (15)0.331.070.671.000.111.11
vs Similar (9)0.670.891.201.200.000.50
vs Weaker (6)0.170.500.000.000.250.75
Clean sheet %37% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Neptūną Klaipėda) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Neptūną KlaipėdaNeptūną Klaipėda

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
10-111D00D10W10W01L11D01L00D10W11DA·BE103/06H·NEV09/06H·KAU23/06H·JON30/06A·TRA29/07H·TRA06/08A·MIN12/08H·FA 20/08A·GAR25/08H·PAN06/09
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.730.570.690.380.790.79
vs Stronger (11)0.820.910.400.601.171.17
vs Similar (12)0.500.250.620.120.250.50
vs Weaker (7)1.000.571.330.670.750.50
Clean sheet %53% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Žalgiris II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Žalgiris II over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Žalgiris II over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Žalgiris II over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Neptūną Klaipėda over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Neptūną Klaipėda over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Neptūną Klaipėda over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

Žalgiris IIŽalgiris II

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-410W00D21W30W23L04L10W30W01L12LH·FA 05/06A·GAR10/06A·PAN23/06A·KAU26/06H·EKR28/07H·BFA07/08H·BAB12/08H·ŠIL21/08H·BE128/08A·NEV31/08
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.1
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.870.931.001.150.760.76
vs Stronger (15)0.801.001.171.000.561.00
vs Similar (9)0.331.000.601.200.000.75
vs Weaker (6)1.830.671.501.502.000.25
Clean sheet %43% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Neptūną Klaipėda) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Neptūną KlaipėdaNeptūną Klaipėda

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-400D00D40W10W12L01L01L30W00D11DA·BE103/06H·NEV09/06H·KAU23/06H·JON30/06A·TRA29/07H·TRA06/08A·MIN12/08H·FA 20/08A·GAR25/08H·PAN06/09
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.100.501.250.380.930.64
vs Stronger (11)1.270.641.000.401.500.83
vs Similar (12)0.750.421.120.250.000.75
vs Weaker (7)1.430.432.000.671.000.25
Clean sheet %60% (+34pp vs league)
This opponent (Žalgiris II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Žalgiris II over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Žalgiris II over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Žalgiris II over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Neptūną Klaipėda over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Neptūną Klaipėda over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Neptūną Klaipėda over/under 2.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.586.6%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TV (24)
€5m
ŽI (6)
€1m
MIN (3)
€0m
FŠI (4)
€0m
NK (1)
€0m
BFA (2)
€0m
GAR (1)
€0m
KŽI (1)
€0m
EKR (1)
€0m
Žalgiris II and Neptūną Klaipėda have a similar squad value (both €1m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TV (8)
€2m
NK (1)
€0m
MIN (1)
€0m
ŽI (2)
€0m
GAR (1)
€0m
FŠI (1)
€0m
BFA (1)
€0m
EKR (0)
€0m
KŽI (0)
€0m
Žalgiris II and Neptūną Klaipėda have a similar attack value (both €0m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TV (5)
€1m
FŠI (2)
€0m
MIN (1)
€0m
ŽI (1)
€0m
BFA (1)
€0m
EKR (1)
€0m
GAR (0)
€0m
NK (0)
€0m
KŽI (0)
€0m
Žalgiris II and Neptūną Klaipėda have a similar midfield value (both €0m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TV (11)
€2m
ŽI (3)
€0m
MIN (1)
€0m
FŠI (1)
€0m
KŽI (1)
€0m
GAR (0)
€0m
EKR (0)
€0m
NK (0)
€0m
BFA (0)
€0m
Žalgiris II and Neptūną Klaipėda have a similar defence value (both €0m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

3 previous meetings
0
ŽI wins
1
Draws
2
NK wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Žalgiris II vs Neptūną Klaipėda · H/A from ŽI
DateH/AGameScore
21/04/23ANeptūną Klaipėda Vs ŽI2-0
10/07/22ANeptūną Klaipėda Vs ŽI2-2
19/03/22HŽI Vs Neptūną Klaipėda0-1

Žalgiris IIŽalgiris II

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
31/08/23ANevėžis Vs ŽI4-1
28/08/23HŽI Vs Be1 NFA0-1
21/08/23HŽI Vs Šilas6-0
12/08/23HŽI Vs Babrungas2-1
07/08/23HŽI Vs BFA1-6
28/07/23HŽI Vs Ekranas2-3
26/06/23AKauno Žalgiris II Vs ŽI2-3
23/06/23APanevėžys II Vs ŽI2-2
10/06/23AGarliava Vs ŽI1-0
05/06/23HŽI Vs FA Šiauliai II3-0

Neptūną KlaipėdaNeptūną Klaipėda

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
06/09/23HNK Vs Panevėžys II2-2
25/08/23AGarliava Vs NK0-1
20/08/23HNK Vs FA Šiauliai II3-0
12/08/23AMinija Vs NK2-0
06/08/23HNK Vs Trakai II1-2
29/07/23ATransINVEST Vilnius Vs NK3-1
30/06/23HNK Vs Jonava2-0
23/06/23HNK Vs Kauno Žalgiris II5-0
09/06/23HNK Vs Nevėžis0-0
03/06/23ABe1 NFA Vs NK1-1

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Žalgiris II
Žalgiris II
Lithuania: 1 Lyga
Recent: 4 Wins / 1 Draws / 5 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLWWLL1.08
HomeLLWWL1.09
AwayLLDWL1.07
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %28%30%26%
AVG goals3.243.483.04
Over 1.5 %80%83%78%
Over 2.5 %64%70%59%
Over 3.5 %42%43%41%
Scored1.401.521.30
Conceded1.841.961.74
BTTS52%57%48%
Clean Sheet22%26%19%
Corners---
Cards---
Neptūną Klaipėda
Neptūną Klaipėda
Lithuania: 1 Lyga
Recent: 4 Wins / 3 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLLWWD1.80
HomeWWLWD2.15
AwayDDLLW1.39
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %52%63%39%
AVG goals3.042.893.22
Over 1.5 %82%81%83%
Over 2.5 %58%56%61%
Over 3.5 %36%30%43%
Scored1.902.041.74
Conceded1.140.851.48
BTTS56%52%61%
Clean Sheet36%48%22%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1TransINVEST VilniusTransINVEST Vilnius2967
72%
2.3
8029+51
3.8
90%
79%
48%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
2122.81.0
-
2Be1 NFABe1 NFA2953
55%
1.8
4830+18
2.7
76%
52%
24%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.71.0
-
3BabrungasBabrungas3051
50%
1.7
6049+11
3.6
93%
67%
43%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.01.6
-
4Neptūną KlaipėdaNeptūną Klaipėda2948
45%
1.7
5433+21
3.0
76%
55%
41%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.91.1
-
5NevėžisNevėžis2948
45%
1.7
4432+12
2.6
72%
52%
31%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.51.1
-
6MinijaMinija2948
48%
1.7
4237+5
2.7
83%
59%
21%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.41.3
-
7Trakai IITrakai II2943
41%
1.5
4633+13
2.7
83%
55%
24%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.61.1
-
8GarliavaGarliava3040
30%
1.3
4337+6
2.7
80%
43%
23%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.41.2
-
9EkranasEkranas3039
37%
1.3
4249-7
3.0
77%
57%
37%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.41.6
-
10BFABFA3038
33%
1.3
4041-1
2.7
80%
47%
27%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.31.4
-
11ŠilasŠilas2335
48%
1.5
2743-16
3.0
78%
57%
39%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.21.9
-
12FA Šiauliai IIFA Šiauliai II3033
30%
1.1
4766-19
3.8
90%
77%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.62.2
-
13Kauno Žalgiris IIKauno Žalgiris II3032
27%
1.1
4049-9
3.0
73%
53%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.31.6
-
14Panevėžys IIPanevėžys II3031
27%
1.0
4559-14
3.5
83%
70%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.52.0
-
15Žalgiris IIŽalgiris II3028
23%
0.9
4666-20
3.7
90%
73%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.52.2
-
16JonavaJonava2912
10%
0.4
2576-51
3.5
93%
72%
41%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.92.6
-
Lithuania: 1 Lyga 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Lithuania: 1 Lyga stats & trends →

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