The model favours an away win, with Gornik Zabrze expected to edge Zawisza Bydgoszcz 50% to 24% for a home win and 26% for a draw. The average number of goals is 2.8, and the single most likely scoreline is 1-1, which carries a 12.6% chance. Zawisza Bydgoszcz, playing at home against a similar-strength opponent, has been prolific, averaging 3.5 goals scored and only 0.5 conceded. Gornik Zabrze, on the road and facing a similar side, averages 1.23 goals scored and 1.23 conceded. Suggested picks from the model include Under 7.5 (99.2%), Under 6.5 (97.6%), Home under 3.5 goals (97.4%), Under 5.5 (93.6%), Away under 3.5 goals (90.9%), Away +2 handicap (90.4%), Home under 2.5 goals (89.9%) and Under 4.5 (84.9%). The match is poised for a tight contest, with Gornik Zabrze’s recent form suggesting they will secure the victory.
Results analysis
The Pythia model’s prediction proved accurate as Gornik Zabrze secured a 0-1 away win, extending their recent run of victories after a defeat. The model had chosen an away win with a 50% probability, and it was right. The final score matched the actual result, confirming the favoured outcome. Every suggested pick was settled: Under 7.5 hit at 99.2%, Under 6.5 hit at 97.6%, Home under 3.5 goals hit at 97.4%, Under 5.5 hit at 93.6%, Away under 3.5 goals hit at 90.9%, Away +2 handicap hit at 90.4%, Home under 2.5 goals hit at 89.9%, and Under 4.5 hit at 84.9%. The model’s selections performed strongly across the board.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Zawisza Bydgoszcz win✗ Miss
23.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
26.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Gornik Zabrze win✓ Hit
49.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Zawisza Bydgoszcz
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
2.5
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.50
0.50
2.50
0.50
-
-
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (2)
3.50
0.50
3.50
0.50
-
-
vs Weaker (2)
1.50
0.50
1.50
0.50
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Gornik Zabrze) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Gornik Zabrze
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.53
1.10
1.92
0.92
1.24
1.24
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (24)
1.62
1.08
2.09
0.91
1.23
1.23
vs Weaker (6)
1.17
1.17
1.00
1.00
1.25
1.25
Clean sheet %
30% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (Zawisza Bydgoszcz) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.8 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
77.9%
Under 1.5
22.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
52.9%
Under 2.5
47.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
30.6%
Under 3.5
69.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
55.7%
No
44.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.6%
1-2
9.6%
0-1 ✓
9.2%
0-2
8.7%
0-0
7.3%
2-1
6.3%
1-0
5.6%
1-3
5.4%
Zawisza Bydgoszcz goals ↓
Gornik Zabrze goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
7.3%
9.2%
8.7%
4.9%
2.1%
1
5.6%
13%
9.6%
5.4%
2.3%
2
3.8%
6.3%
5.3%
3.0%
1.3%
3
1.4%
2.3%
2.0%
1.1%
0.5%
4
0.4%
0.6%
0.5%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Zawisza Bydgoszcz goals (down), columns = Gornik Zabrze goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Legia Warszawa
3.00
Pogon Szczecin
2.50
Ruch Chorzów
2.40
Olimpia Grudziądz
2.25
Polonia Warszawa
2.25
Polonia Bytom
2.00
Stal Stalowa Wola
2.00
Kotwica Kołobrzeg
2.00
Hutnik Kraków
2.00
Puszcza Niepołomice
2.00
Podbeskidzie
2.00
Chojniczanka Chojnice
2.00
ŁKS Łódź
2.00
Slask Wroclaw
2.00
Jagiellonia
2.00
Korona Kielce
1.75
Resovia Rzeszów
1.50
Siarka Tarnobrzeg
1.50
Wisla Krakow
1.50
ŁKS Łódź II
1.50
Warta Poznań
1.50
Odra Opole
1.50
GKS Katowice
1.50
Radomiak Radom
1.50
Widzew Łódź
1.33
Zaglebie Lubin
1.33
Piast Gliwice
1.25
Wieczysta Kraków
1.00
Stal Mielec
1.00
Raków Częstochowa
1.00
Lechia Gdansk
1.00
Górnik Łęczna
1.00
Motor Lublin
1.00
Flota Świnoujście
0.97
Łomża
0.97
Beskid
0.97
Rekord Bielsko-Biała
0.97
Goczałkowice Zdrój B
0.97
Korona Kielce II
0.97
Gryf Słupsk
0.97
Legia Warszawa II
0.97
Małapanew
0.97
Wikielec
0.97
Odra Bytom Odrzański
0.97
Miedź Legnica II
0.97
Zawisza Bydgoszcz
0.97
Polonia Środa
0.97
Lechia T. Mazowiecki
0.97
Arka Gdynia
0.50
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki
0.50
Avia Świdnik
0.50
Miedz Legnica
0.50
Zaglebie Sosnowiec
0.00
Chrobry Głogów
0.00
Kalisz
0.00
Olimpia Elbląg
0.00
Nieciecza
0.00
Jastrzębie
0.00
Wisła Puławy
0.00
Zagłębie Lubin II
0.00
Świt Skolwin
0.00
Gornik Zabrze
0.00
Pogoń Siedlce
0.00
Stal Rzeszów
0.00
Wisla Plock
0.00
Cracovia Krakow
0.00
Znicz Pruszków
0.00
Tychy 71
0.00
SKRA Częstochowa
0.00
Lech Poznan
0.00
Zawisza Bydgoszcz is 0.97 points better than Gornik Zabrze in terms of average points per game (0.97 vs 0.00).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Hutnik Kraków
3.50
Legia Warszawa
3.40
Stal Stalowa Wola
3.00
Siarka Tarnobrzeg
3.00
Pogon Szczecin
2.67
Polonia Bytom
2.50
Olimpia Grudziądz
2.50
Wisla Krakow
2.50
Odra Opole
2.50
Jagiellonia
2.33
Polonia Warszawa
2.25
Olimpia Elbląg
2.00
Wisła Puławy
2.00
ŁKS Łódź II
2.00
Avia Świdnik
2.00
Widzew Łódź
2.00
Cracovia Krakow
2.00
Znicz Pruszków
2.00
Tychy 71
2.00
Chojniczanka Chojnice
2.00
Slask Wroclaw
2.00
Zaglebie Lubin
2.00
Ruch Chorzów
1.80
Piast Gliwice
1.75
Kotwica Kołobrzeg
1.67
Resovia Rzeszów
1.50
Arka Gdynia
1.50
GKS Katowice
1.50
Wieczysta Kraków
1.33
Flota Świnoujście
1.29
Łomża
1.29
Beskid
1.29
Rekord Bielsko-Biała
1.29
Goczałkowice Zdrój B
1.29
Korona Kielce II
1.29
Gryf Słupsk
1.29
Legia Warszawa II
1.29
Małapanew
1.29
Wikielec
1.29
Odra Bytom Odrzański
1.29
Miedź Legnica II
1.29
Zawisza Bydgoszcz
1.29
Polonia Środa
1.29
Lechia T. Mazowiecki
1.29
Korona Kielce
1.25
Chrobry Głogów
1.00
Nieciecza
1.00
Zagłębie Lubin II
1.00
Świt Skolwin
1.00
Puszcza Niepołomice
1.00
Stal Mielec
1.00
Podbeskidzie
1.00
Lechia Gdansk
1.00
Górnik Łęczna
1.00
SKRA Częstochowa
1.00
ŁKS Łódź
1.00
Motor Lublin
1.00
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki
0.50
Warta Poznań
0.50
Miedz Legnica
0.50
Radomiak Radom
0.50
Zaglebie Sosnowiec
0.00
Kalisz
0.00
Jastrzębie
0.00
Gornik Zabrze
0.00
Pogoń Siedlce
0.00
Raków Częstochowa
0.00
Stal Rzeszów
0.00
Wisla Plock
0.00
Lech Poznan
0.00
Zawisza Bydgoszcz is 1.29 goals better than Gornik Zabrze in terms of goals scored per game (1.29 vs 0.00).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Podbeskidzie
0.00
Raków Częstochowa
0.00
Odra Opole
0.50
Slask Wroclaw
0.50
Zaglebie Sosnowiec
1.00
Gornik Zabrze
1.00
Puszcza Niepołomice
1.00
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki
1.00
Stal Mielec
1.00
Lechia Gdansk
1.00
Legia Warszawa
1.00
Wisla Plock
1.00
Górnik Łęczna
1.00
Korona Kielce
1.00
Miedz Legnica
1.00
ŁKS Łódź
1.00
Motor Lublin
1.00
Lech Poznan
1.00
Pogon Szczecin
1.17
Ruch Chorzów
1.20
Kotwica Kołobrzeg
1.33
Jagiellonia
1.33
Zaglebie Lubin
1.33
Polonia Bytom
1.50
Resovia Rzeszów
1.50
Warta Poznań
1.50
GKS Katowice
1.50
Radomiak Radom
1.50
Widzew Łódź
1.67
Wieczysta Kraków
1.73
Olimpia Grudziądz
1.75
Polonia Warszawa
1.75
Piast Gliwice
1.75
Flota Świnoujście
1.78
Łomża
1.78
Beskid
1.78
Rekord Bielsko-Biała
1.78
Goczałkowice Zdrój B
1.78
Korona Kielce II
1.78
Gryf Słupsk
1.78
Legia Warszawa II
1.78
Małapanew
1.78
Wikielec
1.78
Odra Bytom Odrzański
1.78
Miedź Legnica II
1.78
Zawisza Bydgoszcz
1.78
Polonia Środa
1.78
Lechia T. Mazowiecki
1.78
Chrobry Głogów
2.00
Stal Stalowa Wola
2.00
Kalisz
2.00
Siarka Tarnobrzeg
2.00
Nieciecza
2.00
Jastrzębie
2.00
Hutnik Kraków
2.00
Pogoń Siedlce
2.00
ŁKS Łódź II
2.00
SKRA Częstochowa
2.00
Chojniczanka Chojnice
2.33
Arka Gdynia
2.50
Wisla Krakow
2.50
Wisła Puławy
3.00
Świt Skolwin
3.00
Avia Świdnik
3.00
Stal Rzeszów
3.00
Cracovia Krakow
3.00
Znicz Pruszków
3.00
Olimpia Elbląg
4.00
Zagłębie Lubin II
4.00
Tychy 71
4.00
Zawisza Bydgoszcz is 0.78 goals worse than Gornik Zabrze in terms of goals conceded per game (1.78 vs 1.00).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Zawisza Bydgoszcz or Draw✗ Miss
50.3%
Avg Implied -
24%
26%
50%
covers Zawisza Bydgoszcz + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Zawisza Bydgoszcz or Gornik Zabrze✓ Hit
73.6%
Avg Implied -
24%
26%
50%
covers Zawisza Bydgoszcz + Gornik Zabrze
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Gornik Zabrze✓ Hit
76.1%
Avg Implied -
24%
26%
50%
covers Draw + Gornik Zabrze
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Zawisza Bydgoszcz over/under 0.5Actual: Under
Over
67.0%
Under
33.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zawisza Bydgoszcz over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
30.4%
Under
69.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zawisza Bydgoszcz over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
10.1%
Under
89.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zawisza Bydgoszcz over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
2.6%
Under
97.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gornik Zabrze over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
81.4%
Under
18.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gornik Zabrze over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
50.2%
Under
49.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gornik Zabrze over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
23.9%
Under
76.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gornik Zabrze over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
9.1%
Under
90.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Zawisza Bydgoszcz, so a minus line means Zawisza Bydgoszcz give that many goals of a start and Gornik Zabrze receive them. At -1, Zawisza Bydgoszcz must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Zawisza Bydgoszcz win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
This opponent (Gornik Zabrze) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Gornik Zabrze
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.53
0.85
0.38
0.65
0.65
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (24)
0.75
0.46
0.91
0.27
0.62
0.62
vs Weaker (6)
0.67
0.83
0.50
1.00
0.75
0.75
Clean sheet %
57% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (Zawisza Bydgoszcz) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Zawisza Bydgoszcz over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zawisza Bydgoszcz over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zawisza Bydgoszcz over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gornik Zabrze over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gornik Zabrze over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gornik Zabrze over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Zawisza Bydgoszcz
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
2.0
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.00
0.25
2.00
0.25
-
-
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (2)
3.00
0.00
3.00
0.00
-
-
vs Weaker (2)
1.00
0.50
1.00
0.50
-
-
Clean sheet %
75% (+50pp vs league)
This opponent (Gornik Zabrze) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Gornik Zabrze
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
0.57
1.08
0.54
0.59
0.59
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (24)
0.88
0.62
1.18
0.64
0.62
0.62
vs Weaker (6)
0.50
0.33
0.50
0.00
0.50
0.50
Clean sheet %
57% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (Zawisza Bydgoszcz) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Zawisza Bydgoszcz over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zawisza Bydgoszcz over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zawisza Bydgoszcz over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gornik Zabrze over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gornik Zabrze over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gornik Zabrze over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 7.5
99.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
97.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
97.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
93.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
90.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away +2 handicap
90.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 goals
89.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 4.5
84.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away over 0.5 goals
81.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
77.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Away under 2.5 goals
76.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Draw or Away
76.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away +1 handicap
76.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home or Away
73.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
72.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
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Poland: Ekstraklasa 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Poland: Ekstraklasa stats & trends →