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Zorya Luhansk vs Kolos Kovalivka Result & Analysis

Date: 31/07/2026
Time: 15:00
Final 2-0
Zorya Luhansk
Zorya Luhansk
Vs
34%
33%
33%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Kolos Kovalivka
Kolos Kovalivka
Ukraine: Premier League
Referee: -
Match preview & prediction

Zorya Luhansk, coming off a defeat, hosts Kolos Kovalivka, which also suffered a recent loss. This match has defensive undertones, with both teams conceding around a goal per game at home and away, respectively. The model predicts a low-scoring contest, with an expected total of 2.1 goals. The most likely scoreline is 1-1, occurring 14.9% of the time.

Zorya Luhansk's home form is marked by a 1.0 average goal scored and 1.12 conceded, while Kolos Kovalivka averages 1.67 goals scored and 0.67 conceded on the road against similar opponents.

The model's selection is the home win, with a 34% chance of occurrence. The probabilities for home, draw, and away wins are 34%, 33%, and 33%, respectively. The most likely score is 1-1, occurring 14.9% of the time. The model's selections are Under 3.5 (84.8%), with a 7% edge, and no other selections are mentioned.

Results analysis

The win extends Zorya Luhansk's run, but it's their first victory in three matches. They dominated Kolos Kovalivka, securing a 2-0 final score and a home win as the actual result. The model's selection, a home win, was correct, given its pre-match probability of 34%. The model's call was a good one, as it landed the favoured result. The model's selection of Under 3.5 goals hit, with a probability of 84.8%, while the most likely total goals was 2, with a probability of 28%. The most likely scores were 1-1, 0-0, and 1-0, each with a probability of 14.9%, 14.2%, and 12% respectively.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Zorya Luhansk win✓ Hit
34.3%
Avg Implied 37.1% · @ 2.47
Edge
-2.8%
Best 5 market prices
Dafabet
2.55
Superbet
2.55
Pinnacle
2.53
1xBet
2.52
10Bet
2.50
Draw✗ Miss
33.1%
Avg Implied 31.7% · @ 2.88
Edge
+1.4%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
3.00
BetVictor
3.00
Dafabet
2.95
Betano
2.92
William Hil
2.90
Kolos Kovalivka win✗ Miss
32.7%
Avg Implied 31.2% · @ 2.93
Edge
+1.5%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
3.17
Marathonbet
3.16
1xBet
3.12
Betfair
3.10
Dafabet
2.95

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

Zorya LuhanskZorya Luhansk

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-333D10W13L12L20W21W11D21W00D21WA·OBO05/04H·EPI12/04A·DYN17/04H·SHA23/04H·VER27/04A·RUH04/05H·MET09/05A·OLE12/05H·POL18/05A·KAR23/05
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
1.2
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.401.201.270.871.531.53
vs Stronger (8)0.751.250.750.750.751.75
vs Similar (12)1.331.501.171.501.501.50
vs Weaker (10)2.000.801.800.202.201.40
Clean sheet %30% (-3pp vs league)
This opponent (Kolos Kovalivka) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Kolos KovalivkaKolos Kovalivka

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-310W00D11D10W20W30W10W12L02L10WA·VER22/03H·MET04/04A·RUH10/04H·LNZ18/04H·SK 24/04A·OLE02/05H·KUD08/05A·DYN13/05H·OBO17/05A·SHA21/05
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.000.830.800.731.200.93
vs Stronger (12)0.920.751.000.830.830.67
vs Similar (16)0.940.880.500.751.381.00
vs Weaker (2)2.001.002.000.002.002.00
Clean sheet %43% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Zorya Luhansk) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%14%21%28%14%024%128%218%39%44%52%6+
The model estimates around 2.1 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
62.1%
@ 1.40-3.9%
Under 1.5
37.9%
@ 2.71+3.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.44
10Bet
1.42
1xBet
1.42
Superbet
1.41
BetVictor
1.40
Under
Pinnacle
2.88
Betfair
2.88
BetVictor
2.75
1xBet
2.73
Superbet
2.72
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
33.7%
@ 2.26-7.3%
Under 2.5
66.3%
@ 1.57+7.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
2.35
Pinnacle
2.33
10Bet
2.30
Marathonbet
2.29
1xBet
2.28
Under
1xBet
1.59
Marathonbet
1.59
Pinnacle
1.58
Superbet
1.57
Betfair
1.57
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
15.2%
@ 4.14-7.1%
Under 3.5
84.8%
@ 1.19+7.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
4.50
Betfair
4.50
Bet365
4.33
1xBet
4.20
10Bet
4.20
Under
Bet365
1.20
Betano
1.20
10Bet
1.20
1xBet
1.20
Superbet
1.19
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
42.5%
@ 1.91-5.9%
No
57.5%
@ 1.78+5.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
William Hil
2.00
Bet365
2.00
BetVictor
1.93
Superbet
1.92
1xBet
1.91
No
Betfair
1.85
1xBet
1.81
Unibet
1.81
10Bet
1.80
Marathonbet
1.79

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.9%@ 5.26+7.4%
0-0
14.2%@ 6.96+8.5%
1-0
12.0%@ 6.52+6.0%
0-1
11.6%@ 7.20+6.1%
2-1
7.0%@ 9.11+2.7%
2-0 ✓
7.0%@ 10.98+3.4%
1-2
6.8%@ 10.05+2.9%
0-2
6.6%@ 13.04+3.5%
Zorya Luhansk goals ↓
Kolos Kovalivka goals →
01234
014%12%6.6%2.2%0.6%
112%15%6.8%2.3%0.6%
27.0%7.0%3.6%1.2%0.3%
32.4%2.4%1.2%0.4%0.1%
40.6%0.6%0.3%0.1%0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Zorya Luhansk goals (down), columns = Kolos Kovalivka goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Shakhtar Donetsk
2.40
LNZ Cherkasy
2.00
Livyi Bereh
2.00
Polessya
1.97
Dynamo Kyiv
1.90
Metalist 1925 Kharkiv
1.70
Kolos Kovalivka
1.63
Kryvbas KR
1.60
Zorya Luhansk
1.53
Karpaty
1.37
Bukovyna
1.33
Chornomorets
1.20
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi
1.07
Veres Rivne
1.03
Obolon'-Brovar
0.97
Kudrivka
0.94
Zorya Luhansk is 0.10 points worse than Kolos Kovalivka in terms of average points per game (1.53 vs 1.63).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Shakhtar Donetsk
2.37
Dynamo Kyiv
2.20
Kryvbas KR
1.77
Polessya
1.70
Zorya Luhansk
1.40
Karpaty
1.33
LNZ Cherkasy
1.30
Bukovyna
1.20
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi
1.20
Metalist 1925 Kharkiv
1.20
Chornomorets
1.09
Kudrivka
1.06
Livyi Bereh
1.00
Kolos Kovalivka
1.00
Veres Rivne
0.87
Obolon'-Brovar
0.86
Zorya Luhansk is 0.40 goals better than Kolos Kovalivka in terms of goals scored per game (1.40 vs 1.00).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Livyi Bereh
0.50
LNZ Cherkasy
0.57
Metalist 1925 Kharkiv
0.63
Polessya
0.70
Shakhtar Donetsk
0.70
Kolos Kovalivka
0.83
Karpaty
1.03
Zorya Luhansk
1.20
Dynamo Kyiv
1.20
Bukovyna
1.27
Veres Rivne
1.33
Chornomorets
1.40
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi
1.50
Kryvbas KR
1.53
Kudrivka
1.56
Obolon'-Brovar
1.69
Zorya Luhansk is 0.37 goals worse than Kolos Kovalivka in terms of goals conceded per game (1.20 vs 0.83).

⏱️ Possession

Avg possession %
Shakhtar Donetsk
68%
Dynamo Kyiv
62%
Livyi Bereh
58%
Polessya
57%
Metalist 1925 Kharkiv
56%
Zorya Luhansk
52%
Kolos Kovalivka
49%
Kudrivka
49%
Karpaty
49%
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi
48%
Kryvbas KR
48%
LNZ Cherkasy
44%
Veres Rivne
43%
Obolon'-Brovar
42%
Zorya Luhansk is 2.4 percentage points better than Kolos Kovalivka in terms of average possession (52% vs 49%).

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Zorya LuhanskZorya Luhansk

For 5.2 · Against 6.0 · Total 11.2

🚩 Corners

180267533212792113573772981261416318101411H·POLA·OLEH·VERA·DYNA·OBOA·KOLA·KRYA·KUDA·LNZH·KAR
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.6 · Against 1.4 · Total 3.0

🟨 Cards

6021242222112142113624222162H·POLA·OLEH·VERA·DYNA·OBOA·KOLA·KRYA·KUDA·LNZH·KAR
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.3 · Against 10.7 · Total 22.0

⚠️ Fouls

310681615879111213121414711101012151014311520252621212225H·POLA·OLEH·VERA·DYNA·OBOA·KOLA·KRYA·KUDA·LNZH·KAR
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total

Kolos KovalivkaKolos Kovalivka

For 3.7 · Against 4.0 · Total 7.7

🚩 Corners

140337345410122446339433109143610613H·SK H·LNZA·RUHH·META·VERH·ZORA·EPIA·KARH·POLA·KRY
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.9 · Against 2.3 · Total 4.2

🟨 Cards

7014431224221113411325736424542H·SK H·LNZA·RUHH·META·VERH·ZORA·EPIA·KARH·POLA·KRY
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.6 · Against 12.8 · Total 25.4

⚠️ Fouls

310121810131411101115121412131212101615101430232521272625223124H·SK H·LNZA·RUHH·META·VERH·ZORA·EPIA·KARH·POLA·KRY
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total

Zorya LuhanskZorya Luhansk

SplitCornersCardsFouls
TotHmeAwyTotHmeAwyTotHmeAwy
Overall (50)10.89.412.22.12.22.022.020.423.7
vs Stronger (15)10.78.413.52.73.42.119.920.019.8
vs Similar (19)11.211.011.32.32.02.524.023.024.7
vs Weaker (16)10.39.012.01.41.61.322.018.227.0
% over line62%46%77%28%28%28%46%38%54%
% under line38%54%23%72%72%72%54%62%46%
This opponent (Kolos Kovalivka) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Kolos KovalivkaKolos Kovalivka

SplitCornersCardsFouls
TotHmeAwyTotHmeAwyTotHmeAwy
Overall (50)8.17.68.51.92.01.825.726.525.0
vs Stronger (22)8.37.98.82.23.11.423.826.420.8
vs Similar (26)8.28.28.21.70.92.427.325.828.1
vs Weaker (2)3.03.0-2.55.00.030.030.0-
% over line31%33%29%28%25%31%77%83%71%
% under line69%67%71%72%75%69%23%17%29%
This opponent (Zorya Luhansk) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

🚩 Total Corners

Match total corners / game
Zorya Luhansk
10.5
Dynamo Kyiv
10.2
Kryvbas KR
10.0
Metalist 1925 Kharkiv
9.8
Veres Rivne
9.8
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi
9.7
Polessya
9.5
Kudrivka
9.4
Livyi Bereh
9.2
Obolon'-Brovar
9.1
LNZ Cherkasy
9.1
Shakhtar Donetsk
8.9
Chornomorets
8.8
Kolos Kovalivka
8.6
Karpaty
8.5

🟨 Total Cards

Match total cards / game
Karpaty
4.9
Obolon'-Brovar
4.6
Metalist 1925 Kharkiv
4.6
LNZ Cherkasy
4.5
Veres Rivne
4.4
Chornomorets
4.4
Livyi Bereh
4.4
Polessya
4.2
Zorya Luhansk
4.1
Dynamo Kyiv
4.0
Kolos Kovalivka
3.9
Shakhtar Donetsk
3.8
Kudrivka
3.8
Kryvbas KR
3.6
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi
3.2

⚠️ Total Fouls

Match total fouls / game
Obolon'-Brovar
26.9
Livyi Bereh
26.2
Kudrivka
25.1
Kryvbas KR
24.6
Karpaty
24.2
Kolos Kovalivka
24.0
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi
23.7
LNZ Cherkasy
23.0
Veres Rivne
22.8
Chornomorets
22.4
Zorya Luhansk
22.0
Dynamo Kyiv
21.6
Metalist 1925 Kharkiv
21.2
Polessya
20.6
Shakhtar Donetsk
19.4
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
46.2%
@ 2.05+1.2%
Under 9.5
53.8%
@ 1.68-1.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
2.12
Betano
2.07
Pinnacle
2.04
Superbet
2.02
Marathonbet
2.02
Under
Betano
1.70
Superbet
1.70
Marathonbet
1.69
Pinnacle
1.69
1xBet
1.64
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
45.1%
Under 3.5
54.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
58.6%
Under 21.5
41.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🔥 6. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Under 3.584.8%1.19
Bet365
1.20
Betano
1.20
10Bet
1.20
1xBet
1.20
Superbet
1.19
+7.1%✓ Hit

💰 7. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SD (35)
€224m
DK (30)
€85m
KAR (38)
€27m
LC (32)
€25m
M1K (32)
€23m
KK (34)
€16m
ZL (27)
€13m
VR (30)
€10m
BUK (25)
€9m
KUD (33)
€8m
CHO (21)
€5m
LB (25)
€5m
Zorya Luhansk's squad is €2m less valuable than Kolos Kovalivka's (€13m vs €16m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SD (15)
€147m
DK (12)
€31m
LC (14)
€13m
KAR (12)
€10m
M1K (13)
€9m
KK (14)
€6m
ZL (12)
€4m
VR (12)
€4m
BUK (10)
€4m
KUD (12)
€3m
CHO (7)
€2m
LB (7)
€2m
Zorya Luhansk's attack is €2m less valuable than Kolos Kovalivka's (€4m vs €6m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DK (5)
€24m
SD (4)
€19m
KAR (10)
€6m
LC (7)
€6m
M1K (6)
€5m
KK (7)
€4m
ZL (5)
€3m
BUK (5)
€2m
VR (8)
€2m
CHO (7)
€2m
KUD (5)
€1m
LB (6)
€1m
Zorya Luhansk's midfield is €1m less valuable than Kolos Kovalivka's (€3m vs €4m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SD (16)
€58m
DK (13)
€30m
KAR (16)
€11m
M1K (13)
€9m
LC (11)
€7m
ZL (10)
€7m
KK (13)
€6m
VR (10)
€4m
KUD (16)
€4m
BUK (10)
€3m
LB (12)
€2m
CHO (7)
€2m
Zorya Luhansk's defence is €1m more valuable than Kolos Kovalivka's (€7m vs €6m).

🤝 8. Games History

Head-to-head

Zorya Luhansk vs Kolos Kovalivka · H/A from ZL
DateH/AGameScore
15/03/26AKolos Kovalivka Vs ZL1-1
14/09/25HZL Vs Kolos Kovalivka1-3
30/03/25HZL Vs Kolos Kovalivka0-3
23/09/24AKolos Kovalivka Vs ZL1-0
25/05/24HZL Vs Kolos Kovalivka0-1
09/05/24AKolos Kovalivka Vs ZL0-1
21/04/23AKolos Kovalivka Vs ZL0-1
01/12/22HZL Vs Kolos Kovalivka2-2

Zorya LuhanskZorya Luhansk

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
23/05/26AKarpaty Vs ZL1-2
18/05/26HZL Vs Polessya0-0
12/05/26AOleksandria Vs ZL1-2
09/05/26HZL Vs Metalist 1925 Kharkiv1-1
04/05/26ARuh Lviv Vs ZL1-2
27/04/26HZL Vs Veres Rivne2-0
23/04/26HZL Vs Shakhtar Donetsk1-2
17/04/26ADynamo Kyiv Vs ZL3-1
12/04/26HZL Vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi1-0
05/04/26AObolon'-Brovar Vs ZL3-3

Kolos KovalivkaKolos Kovalivka

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
21/05/26AShakhtar Donetsk Vs KK0-1
17/05/26HKK Vs Obolon'-Brovar0-2
13/05/26ADynamo Kyiv Vs KK2-1
08/05/26HKK Vs Kudrivka1-0
02/05/26AOleksandria Vs KK0-3
24/04/26HKK Vs SK Poltava2-0
18/04/26HKK Vs LNZ Cherkasy1-0
10/04/26ARuh Lviv Vs KK1-1
04/04/26HKK Vs Metalist 1925 Kharkiv0-0
22/03/26AVeres Rivne Vs KK0-1

📊 9. Overall Statistics

Zorya Luhansk
Zorya Luhansk
Ukraine: Premier League
Recent: 5 Wins / 3 Draws / 2 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWDWDW1.48
HomeWLWDD1.60
AwayDLWWW1.36
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %40%44%36%
AVG goals2.602.242.96
Over 1.5 %78%68%88%
Over 2.5 %58%52%64%
Over 3.5 %26%16%36%
Scored1.341.241.44
Conceded1.261.001.52
BTTS62%52%72%
Clean Sheet24%40%8%
Corners10.779.3812.15
Cards4.124.313.92
Kolos Kovalivka
Kolos Kovalivka
Ukraine: Premier League
Recent: 6 Wins / 2 Draws / 2 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWWLLW1.54
HomeDWWWL1.33
AwayWDWLW1.73
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %40%29%50%
AVG goals1.881.542.19
Over 1.5 %60%58%62%
Over 2.5 %26%17%35%
Over 3.5 %10%0%19%
Scored1.040.751.31
Conceded0.840.790.88
BTTS40%42%38%
Clean Sheet40%38%42%
Corners8.087.588.50
Cards3.694.003.43

🏆 10. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1KarpatyKarpaty39
100%
3.0
101+9
3.7
100%
100%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
27
106113.30.3
49%
2Shakhtar DonetskShakhtar Donetsk26
100%
3.0
71+6
4.0
100%
50%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
224
14719583.50.5
68%
3PolessyaPolessya26
100%
3.0
52+3
3.5
100%
100%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.51.0
57%
4Epitsentr DunayivtsiEpitsentr Dunayivtsi34
33%
1.3
32+1
1.7
67%
33%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.00.7
48%
5Kryvbas KRKryvbas KR34
33%
1.3
56-1
3.7
100%
67%
67%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.72.0
48%
6LNZ CherkasyLNZ Cherkasy34
33%
1.3
23-1
1.7
67%
33%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
25
13670.71.0
44%
7Dynamo KyivDynamo Kyiv13
100%
3.0
21+1
3.0
100%
100%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
85
3124302.01.0
62%
8Zorya LuhanskZorya Luhansk23
50%
1.5
33+0
3.0
100%
50%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
13
4371.51.5
52%
9Metalist 1925 KharkivMetalist 1925 Kharkiv23
50%
1.5
23-1
2.5
50%
50%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
23
9591.01.5
56%
10Livyi BerehLivyi Bereh22
0%
1.0
11+0
1.0
50%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
2120.50.5
58%
11ObolonObolon'-Brovar32
0%
0.7
03-3
1.0
33%
33%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.01.0
42%
12BukovynaBukovyna32
0%
0.7
03-3
1.0
33%
33%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
9
4230.01.0
-
13KudrivkaKudrivka32
0%
0.7
15-4
2.0
33%
33%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
8
3140.31.7
49%
14Veres RivneVeres Rivne31
0%
0.3
13-2
1.3
33%
33%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
10
4240.31.0
43%
15Kolos KovalivkaKolos Kovalivka10
0%
0.0
02-2
2.0
100%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
16
6460.02.0
49%
16ChornomoretsChornomorets20
0%
0.0
14-3
2.5
100%
50%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
2220.52.0
-
Ukraine: Premier League 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Ukraine: Premier League stats & trends →

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